Discussion Official 2021 Fantasy Planning Thread

[WaynesWorld19]

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[Iceman!]

Be very careful picking anyone due to more mid time with Adams missing, sounds like if he doesn't line up round 1 he won't be too far off.

Wouldn't want a nasty surprise in round 2 if Adams came back and cooked a player you were banking on.

 

[bl4ke]

Yeah I would think its not the same story. Ceglar was speculative at best (albeit cheap for a guy taking the number 1 ruck role).
Marshall at least has runs on the board. I'm still concerned with the Ryder factor though.

At Marshall's price I'm leaning toward Dunkley as the preferred option for my F1 spot. But I can see why people would rate Marshall as the best F1 option on merit anyway.

I'm fairly sure Marshall actually averages more with Ryder in the side. If not it's only 2 points either way IIRC

EDIT: 3 points per game less with Ryder

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Marshall is an interesting prospect because on exposed form (with Ryder in the side) he isn’t pushing much past 100. At his price point (94), there’s upside but not a lot of ceiling...what I’m saying is RoMar isn’t going to hurt you not selecting him and price himself out of your team. He’s also not going to hurt you starting him in your team because it’s likely he finishes the year as a top 6 forward. Its like starting Dustin Martin.
let
For what it’s worth, conversely if Dunkley snags some decent midfield minutes R1 - he could easily notch up a 150 and you’ll potentially be chasing him the rest of the year. I think that if you’re not starting Dunkley because you’re worried about the volatility of his role, then you shouldn’t be trading him in later on for the same reason (unless mid role is obvious).

I actually thought of Dunkley being too expensive not too long ago. Now the longer the look at it, the cheaper I think he is.

But something is off about the look of Marshall at F1. If that's as strong as a forward line gets, its going to be a pretty weak forward line (no offense intended to Marshall but as you say.. I just don't see a ceiling there. Just a solid and consistent 80-95 trooper).

Dunkley being priced at $741k - if we look at the midfielders priced in that 700-750k range.... Coniglio, Walsh, Curnow, McGrath, Worpel.

Dunkley is an absolute steal by comparison. Only concern is the Bevo factor.

But surely in light of recent events (him trying to move to Essendon for midfield time) ... SURELY they wouldn't then let him stew in the forward line? If they play him in the guts all year they'll keep him.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

I'm fairly sure Marshall actually averages more with Ryder in the side. If not it's only 2 points either way IIRC

EDIT: 3 points per game less with Ryder

Never realized it was this close. Good to know.

 

[Freo_4eva]

If i swap Tadams to Walsh
Whitfield to Duggan

Gives me a team im reasonably happy starting with.. albeit feels like i dont have enough "keepers" and 467k in the bank

If both the big dogs get named in round 1 - happy to reverse

 

[kozi]

Some good discussion around rucks. Always find it funny how a 2 man line causes the most headaches.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Some good discussion around rucks. Always find it funny how a 2 man line causes the most headaches.

Could easily be the bane of my existence regardless of which way I go.

Option A) Either lock and leave it with Grundy and Gawn... if they do anything other than 110+ average I'm basically screwed for overspending.

Option B) Versus going 1x lock (Grundy) and 1x cheapie (Pruess). Rest of the team looks great as a result, but if Pruess dishes up a sub 50 score in round 1 I'm chasing my tail for the season.

Option C) Grundy and value "premo" Witts/OscarO etc. Not a fan of this as its too middle of the road.

Coin toss between option A and B.
For those going Option B, I really only like that route if your forwardline bats deep.
If Pruess fails early and we're forced to swap Marshall to R2, suddenly our forward-lines are going to be decimated....and at least for the moment it's tough for my forward line to look strong enough to hold up to that stress test!

 

[bl4ke]

Brown and Weideman injured. Tom McDonald

25

Tom Mcdonald

Age

32

Ht

195cm

Wt

101kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.4

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

6.7

4star

M

5.6

5star

T

1.9

4star

MG

261.8

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.0

2star

M

3.4

3star

T

0.6

1star

MG

135.6

2star

D

13.8

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

7.0

5star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.4

4star

to recapture his 90 average of 2018 confirmed. Priced at 470k

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I actually thought of Dunkley being too expensive not too long ago. Now the longer the look at it, the cheaper I think he is.

But something is off about the look of Marshall at F1. If that's as strong as a forward line gets, its going to be a pretty weak forward line (no offense intended to Marshall but as you say.. I just don't see a ceiling there. Just a solid and consistent 80-95 trooper).

Dunkley being priced at $741k - if we look at the midfielders priced in that 700-750k range.... Coniglio, Walsh, Curnow, McGrath, Worpel.

Dunkley is an absolute steal by comparison. Only concern is the Bevo factor.

But surely in light of recent events (him trying to move to Essendon for midfield time) ... SURELY they wouldn't then let him stew in the forward line? If they play him in the guts all year they'll keep him.

The Bevo factor is the only concern with Dunkley but it should be the primary concern. There is no way he plays enough midfield to score like he has previously. He will be thrown in a forward pocket and will average 85 for most of the season, with one small patch of 110+ that sucks everyone in, evening out at a 90-95 avg. Coniglio, Walsh and Worpel will all easily outscore that.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

The Bevo factor is the only concern with Dunkley but it should be the primary concern. There is no way he plays enough midfield to score like he has previously. He will be thrown in a forward pocket and will average 85 for most of the season, with one small patch of 110+ that sucks everyone in, evening out at a 90-95 avg. Coniglio, Walsh and Worpel will all easily outscore that.

Fair call. But you just know Bevo will play him 100% midfield gametime in the preseason matches..... just baiting that line juicy enough so we all bite.

 

[kozi]

Could easily be the bane of my existence regardless of which way I go.

Option A) Either lock and leave it with Grundy and Gawn... if they do anything other than 110+ average I'm basically screwed for overspending.

Option B) Versus going 1x lock (Grundy) and 1x cheapie (Pruess). Rest of the team looks great as a result, but if Pruess dishes up a sub 50 score in round 1 I'm chasing my tail for the season.

Option C) Grundy and value "premo" Witts/OscarO etc. Not a fan of this as its too middle of the road.

Coin toss between option A and B.
For those going Option B, I really only like that route if your forwardline bats deep.
If Pruess fails early and we're forced to swap Marshall to R2, suddenly our forward-lines are going to be decimated....and at least for the moment it's tough for my forward line to look strong enough to hold up to that stress test!

Or option D) where I’m heading with Big O/Preuss

If locking in Gawn/Grundy then it means an extra mid pricer in the mids most likely.. which is fine of course. However in this scenario it comes down to whether that mid pricer will be better than O Mac.

Grundy + Cunnington
v
Uber mid + O Mac

Assuming Grundy and the uber mid average similar, for me the latter is a far safer bet just on the mid pricers. So while the 2 cheap ruck set up looks like a bit of a thrift shop it can be made up in spades elsewhere.
*I do have Marshall as a FWD providing cover which you almost have to do if going down that route.

 

[Dupogi]

If i swap Tadams to Walsh
Whitfield to Duggan

Gives me a team im reasonably happy starting with.. albeit feels like i dont have enough "keepers" and 467k in the bank

If both the big dogs get named in round 1 - happy to reverse

Rocking with Duggan at D2?

 

[Dupogi]

Or option D) where I’m heading with Big O/Preuss

If locking in Gawn/Grundy then it means an extra mid pricer in the mids most likely.. which is fine of course. However in this scenario it comes down to whether that mid pricer will be better than O Mac.

Grundy + Cunnington
v
Uber mid + O Mac

Assuming Grundy and the uber mid average similar, for me the latter is a far safer bet just on the mid pricers. So while the 2 cheap ruck set up looks like a bit of a thrift shop it can be made up in spades elsewhere.
*I do have Marshall as a FWD providing cover which you almost have to do if going down that route.

If the uber mid if Neale i probably like that.
I think the 2 cheap rucks can pay off if they play well, it will be a big advantage for sure, there is just so much value around its hard to have them all.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Just had a fun, albeit demoralizing game for just prior to round 1:

After finalizing your team, make a second mock team on paper in say 5-10minutes (just pick guys on a whim) with the only rule that you can't select any of the players in your actual squad.
Same salary to work with.

If your mock team outscores your actual team in round 1. Vent like you have never vented before.

 

[Dan12]

I can't see anyone between 350-500k who will increase in value more than Preuss or Hickey. I'm going 75 and 80 averages for them. Who else in that range offers 25 points of upside?

 

[kozi]

If the uber mid if Neale i probably like that.
I think the 2 cheap rucks can pay off if they play well, it will be a big advantage for sure, there is just so much value around its hard to have them all.

Well Preuss is the sketchy one but the bar is pretty low considering his price and ownership.

Big O I’m bullish on. Think he’s a safe bet to go 80-90 before being upgraded to one of the big dogs.

Hately/Cunnington types in the mids will virtually be a must but there’s a high chance at least one of those types will be a flop. I like the idea of not being forced into going both or a third as there’s upside in potentially picking the right one and avoiding the one that spuds.

 

[Shadow89]

Brown and Weideman injured. Tom McDonald to recapture his 90 average of 2018 confirmed. Priced at 470k

Or he scores 52 for the season, as he has no buffer from any other key forwards (Hogan in 2018)...meaning he actually loses you money. Wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole.

With that said, surely some younger players like Laurie and Bowey are even more likely, due to this forward line disarray? Could be similar to the 2018 Collingwood forward line, where a team has one big guy (McDonald) and 5 small-medium forwards floating around - here's hoping!

 

[Shadow89]

I can't see anyone between 350-500k who will increase in value more than Preuss or Hickey. I'm going 75 and 80 averages for them. Who else in that range offers 25 points of upside?

Hickey has never scored above 75.4 at WC...even when he's been a solo ruck. His best season was with WC in 2018, and he still only managed a 69.3. Dude screams 'trap'

At least Preuss has good VFL form, is in a high scoring/high possession sides, likes a tackle, and is 40 grand cheaper. His upside is far greater than Hickey IMO

 

[kozi]

Hickey has never scored above 75.4 at WC...even when he's been a solo ruck. His best season was with WC in 2018, and he still only managed a 69.3. Dude screams 'trap'

At least Preuss has good VFL form, is in a high scoring/high possession sides, likes a tackle, and is 40 grand cheaper. His upside is far greater than Hickey IMO

We tend to over think things in terms of price and fantasy score but bottom line is Hickey isn’t a very good player and it would be a stretch to pick him and expect a decent performance week in week out.

 

[bl4ke]

Tom hickey

31

Tom Hickey

Age

33

Ht

202cm

Wt

97kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.9

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

6.9

4star

CL

2.8

4star

HO

19.1

5star

D

4.0

1star

K

1.5

1star

HB

2.5

2star

CL

1.0

3star

HO

7.0

5star

D

11.2

3star

K

4.2

2star

HB

7.0

5star

CL

0.4

3star

HO

8.6

5star

is the most frustrating player in the AFL. In 2019 he would look like Grundy one week and score 141 points then follow it up with a 39 (actual facts). No doubt he'll go big some games but the pure frustration of owning him and having to watch him every week is enough for me to steer clear.

 

[Dan12]

Hickey has never scored above 75.4 at WC...even when he's been a solo ruck. His best season was with WC in 2018, and he still only managed a 69.3. Dude screams 'trap'

At least Preuss has good VFL form, is in a high scoring/high possession sides, likes a tackle, and is 40 grand cheaper. His upside is far greater than Hickey IMO

Hickey has averaged 74 combined for the four seasons before last and rarely been the main ruck in that time. He's never had an extended period as the solo ruck (NN, Vardy, Marshall, Longer etc).
If Hickey has all the ruck time he wants (likely imo) he will go higher than 74. 80 seems quite reasonable. Yes he's a rubbish player but so are lots of the other rucks who I think will average 80. He just happens to be 150k cheaper than most of them.

 

[Thetrader15]

Be very careful picking anyone due to more mid time with Adams missing, sounds like if he doesn't line up round 1 he won't be too far off.

Wouldn't want a nasty surprise in round 2 if Adams came back and cooked a player you were banking on.

Good point...I'll reverse what I did today to get Sier into my team.

 

[Shadow89]

Hickey has averaged 74 combined for the four seasons before last and rarely been the main ruck in that time. He's never had an extended period as the solo ruck (NN, Vardy, Marshall, Longer etc).
If Hickey has all the ruck time he wants (likely imo) he will go higher than 74. 80 seems quite reasonable. Yes he's a rubbish player but so are lots of the other rucks who I think will average 80. He just happens to be 150k cheaper than most of them.

Honestly would rather Draper, who'll have a moratorium on the first ruck role, and has a huge amount of upside given his price, age and athletic ability. This is only if you already have Preuss, and you're going with the cheapie rucks and Marshall up forward as insurance. Still reckon one uber premo - Gawn/Grundy and Preuss is the way to go, but that's just my opinion. Will be interesting to see what strategy works out this year

 

[Dan12]

Honestly would rather Draper, who'll have a moratorium on the first ruck role, and has a huge amount of upside given his price, age and athletic ability. This is only if you already have Preuss, and you're going with the cheapie rucks and Marshall up forward as insurance. Still reckon one uber premo - Gawn/Grundy and Preuss is the way to go, but that's just my opinion. Will be interesting to see what strategy works out this year

It will be interesting. I am quite prepared to die on this hill alone of cheap as chips rucks. It's a big risk not going one of the big 3. Draper will be a jet and will be ten times the player Hickey is, but I think he gets managed a lot.

 

[Dan12]

As an aside I think almost all rucks are a tad overpriced this year. More stoppages and less game time meant the best rucks spent nearly all game on ground in 2020.