Discussion Official 2021 Fantasy Planning Thread

[WaynesWorld19]

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[Cotchy9]

So like everyone I’ve filled my bench with 170k rookies, but really worried come round 1 that half or more won’t play. I had Valente at M8 too and have just gone Serong and Cunnington to Gaff and Braeden Campbell and got a 170k bench up to Tom Powell. Feel like I’ve run at a slight points loss but better JS

Serong 100+ Cunnington 85=185

Gaff 110+ Campbell 65=175

But option two has allowed the rookie upgrade

 

[Zevon]

Ok there is other options, but O'Brien for 100k less doesnt seem right. Gawn will probably outscore him by 10-15pts per game on average. And you're basically locking yourself into that loss for the entire year (you'd never trade Obrien -> Gawn).

For the sake of another 100k I'd probably just be starting Gawn?

The rest are all speculative at best and will drop a lot more points on Gawn throughout the year. I don't mind Witts or McInerney for value though. But again, it'll be very late in the season you trade either of them to Gawn (if at all depending on injuries etc).

It's easier to bridge those gaps everywhere else cheaply. Rucks it almost never works out?

Definitely an interesting discussion but for mine it’s a year where the cap is so tight that basically every one of your selections has to outscore what they’re priced at. Gawn is priced at 124 which is basically maxed out (no pun intended) and if anything he’ll drop in value at some point. He has the Saints in round 2 which will be a tough matchup for solo ruckmen this year with the Ryder-Marshall pairing working them over a little... even a 95 from Max in that game surrounded by 115-120s in his other opening fixtures would see him start to lose cash pretty quickly and enable others to pick him up cheaper than those who started him.

Long story short I think there’s a case to be made that Grundy and O’Brien are both underpriced (O’Brien in particular has an incredibly friendly ruckman’s draw to start the year) so I feel one of those needs to be R1 with a Preuss/McInerney/Draper/Hickey at R2 to score healthily and make some money until their bye when 3 trades a week makes a cheaper Max Gawn a little easier to get to.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Definitely an interesting discussion but for mine it’s a year where the cap is so tight that basically every one of your selections has to outscore what they’re priced at. Gawn is priced at 124 which is basically maxed out (no pun intended) and if anything he’ll drop in value at some point. He has the Saints in round 2 which will be a tough matchup for solo ruckmen this year with the Ryder-Marshall pairing working them over a little... even a 95 from Max in that game surrounded by 115-120s in his other opening fixtures would see him start to lose cash pretty quickly and enable others to pick him up cheaper than those who started him.

Long story short I think there’s a case to be made that Grundy and O’Brien are both underpriced (O’Brien in particular has an incredibly friendly ruckman’s draw to start the year) so I feel one of those needs to be R1 with a Preuss/McInerney/Draper/Hickey at R2 to score healthily and make some money until their bye when 3 trades a week makes a cheaper Max Gawn a little easier to get to.

Much of it will depend on the rest of my team. I like all the value picks on offer elsewhere so I actually end up with cash leftover to spend at the moment (which I dropped on Pruess to become Gawn).

I dont find myself wanting to spend it in either defense or forwards.... and the midfield has such value it seems a waste to take too many premos there.

Gawn will almost certainly drop in value, but even if he drops 100-150k in the first month no one is going to be in a position to pick him up.

Eg: If you had Obrien and Gawn drops 100k to be the same price... are you really going to burn one of your 2 trades to swap them? Almost certainly not.
Similarly if you started a cheapy at R2 (Pruess/McInerney etc etc) ... are you really going to drop 300-500k on a Gawn upgrade that early? I would think it is highly unlikely as it would involve a restructure.

I'm of the thought that if I don't start with Gawn I won't get him till byes, or possibly never. And I'm not sure I'm ok with that or not just yet.

Much of it comes down to Pruess. If he looks good in these preseason games it'll be hard not to go with the masses.

 

[Zevon]

So like everyone I’ve filled my bench with 170k rookies, but really worried come round 1 that half or more won’t play. I had Valente at M8 too and have just gone Serong and Cunnington to Gaff and Braeden Campbell and got a 170k bench up to Tom Powell. Feel like I’ve run at a slight points loss but better JS

Serong 100+ Cunnington 85=185

Gaff 110+ Campbell 65=175

But option two has allowed the rookie upgrade

Yeah I’m highly doubtful that many 170kers will play early so I’m erring on the side of caution. I’ve actually gone full midpriced madness on the field as of this morning and tried to spend up a little even on my bench rooks. That way if only the pricier rooks are playing in round 1 I’m prepared, but if a bunch of $170k blokes do get named then it’s still easy to downgrade to them and upgrade some of my more speculative midpricers (eg Milera) to more proven guns at the last minute.

Much easier doing it this way than having to find cash to upgrade all the 170k rooks or fully restructure in a mad scramble when teams are named

 

[Cotchy9]

Yeah I’m highly doubtful that many 170kers will play early so I’m errING on the side of caution. I’ve actually gone full midpriced madness on the field as of this morning and tried to spend up a little even on my bench rooks. That way if only the pricier rooks are playing in round 1 I’m prepared, but if a bunch of $170k blokes do get named then it’s still easy to downgrade to them and upgrade some of my more speculative midpricers (eg Milera) to more proven guns at the last minute.

Much easier doing it this way than having to find cash to upgrade all the 170k rooks or fully restructure in a mad scramble when teams are named

Imagine if it got to a point where we had to pay like 220-230k for each bench spot. There’ll be a few, but the only 170k guys I see playing are probably Gould and maybe Valente

 

[Zevon]

Much of it will depend on the rest of my team. I like all the value picks on offer elsewhere so I actually end up with cash leftover to spend at the moment (which I dropped on Pruess to become Gawn).

I dont find myself wanting to spend it in either defense or forwards.... and the midfield has such value it seems a waste to take too many premos there.

Gawn will almost certainly drop in value, but even if he drops 100-150k in the first month no one is going to be in a position to pick him up.

Eg: If you had Obrien and Gawn drops 100k to be the same price... are you really going to burn one of your 2 trades to swap them? Almost certainly not.
Similarly if you started a cheapy at R2 (Pruess/McInerney etc etc) ... are you really going to drop 300-500k on a Gawn upgrade that early? I would think it is highly unlikely as it would involve a restructure.

I'm of the thought that if I don't start with Gawn I won't get him till byes, or possibly never. And I'm not sure I'm ok with that or not just yet.

Much of it comes down to Pruess. If he looks good in these preseason games it'll be hard not to go with the masses.

Nothing wrong with this take. I’ve gone with a different angle because I feel O’Brien will match Gawn for much of the year, particularly early with his draw. But if it’s Gawn you want and your other lines don’t suffer then you can breathe easy knowing your R1 is set for the year

 

[adonski]

Imagine if it got to a point where we had to pay like 220-230k for each bench spot. There’ll be a few, but the only 170k guys I see playing are probably Gould and maybe Valente

Wehr could be a shot from GWS given how many defenders they've lost. James Jordon for Melb should get a gig at some stage.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

 

[JDWCE]

Imagine if it got to a point where we had to pay like 220-230k for each bench spot. There’ll be a few, but the only 170k guys I see playing are probably Gould and maybe Valente

I'm not even sure I see Valente cracking that Freo side. They seem pretty settled these days especially through the middle. Think we're gonna be scraping the barrel. The few I've got written down for now (in pencil mind you):
Wehr
Gould
W Kelly
H Jones
Ely Smith
Bianco

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Nothing wrong with this take. I’ve gone with a different angle because I feel O’Brien will match Gawn for much of the year, particularly early with his draw. But if it’s Gawn you want and your other lines don’t suffer then you can breathe easy knowing your R1 is set for the year

I'm probably bias also as last year my year was ruined in the opening month due to my rucks not being rock solid. Constantly fixing one of the ruck spots ended up costing me 3-4trades in the opening month and a half, and countless points from which I could never truly recover.

A lot to ponder this year.

 

[Zevon]

I'm probably bias also as last year my year was ruined in the opening month due to my rucks not being rock solid. Constantly fixing one of the ruck spots ended up costing me 3-4trades in the opening month and a half, and countless points from which I could never truly recover.

A lot to ponder this year.

Yeah I was in the same boat last year too and even the year before as well I seem to remember, but unlike you I seem to never learn I have Marshall at F1 like many others in order to temper the risk somewhat this year. I’m keen on Marshall as a pick anyway so I haven’t done it purely for the ruck insurance, it’s just a handy by-product

 

[JDWCE]

I'm probably bias also as last year my year was ruined in the opening month due to my rucks not being rock solid. Constantly fixing one of the ruck spots ended up costing me 3-4trades in the opening month and a half, and countless points from which I could never truly recover.

A lot to ponder this year.

I think Marshall mitigates a lot of risk in the rucks this year. Almost gives us an ideal chance to go a cheapie there

 

[Neale4brownlow]

I think Marshall mitigates a lot of risk in the rucks this year. Almost gives us an ideal chance to go a cheapie there

Almost like Ceglar last year......... haha.

 

[JDWCE]

Almost like Ceglar last year......... haha.

Point taken. But Marshall is almost a lock for top 6 forward this year, Ceglar wasn't even close

 

[Dupogi]

I think Marshall mitigates a lot of risk in the rucks this year. Almost gives us an ideal chance to go a cheapie there

I think it is a must if you have Preuss at R2.

 

[Dupogi]

Point taken. But Marshall is almost a lock for top 6 forward this year, Ceglar wasn't even close

Poor Ceglar, I thought his first 4 games were passable and he made some cash and was the good insurance for Naismith.
If that Ceglar move paid off it would have been big!

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Point taken. But Marshall is almost a lock for top 6 forward this year, Ceglar wasn't even close

Yeah I would think its not the same story. Ceglar was speculative at best (albeit cheap for a guy taking the number 1 ruck role).
Marshall at least has runs on the board. I'm still concerned with the Ryder factor though.

At Marshall's price I'm leaning toward Dunkley as the preferred option for my F1 spot. But I can see why people would rate Marshall as the best F1 option on merit anyway.

 

[Dupogi]

Yeah I would think its not the same story. Ceglar was speculative at best (albeit cheap for a guy taking the number 1 ruck role).
Marshall at least has runs on the board. I'm still concerned with the Ryder factor though.

At Marshall's price I'm leaning toward Dunkley as the preferred option for my F1 spot. But I can see why people would rate Marshall as the best F1 option on merit anyway.

Take out Marshall put in Daniher and upgrade in the ruck to 2 x set and forget and let the good times roll! (while decimating other lines because you still wont have the cash)

 

[PAFC27]

Yeah I would think its not the same story. Ceglar was speculative at best (albeit cheap for a guy taking the number 1 ruck role).
Marshall at least has runs on the board. I'm still concerned with the Ryder factor though.

At Marshall's price I'm leaning toward Dunkley as the preferred option for my F1 spot. But I can see why people would rate Marshall as the best F1 option on merit anyway.

Marshall is an interesting prospect because on exposed form (with Ryder in the side) he isn’t pushing much past 100. At his price point (94), there’s upside but not a lot of ceiling...what I’m saying is RoMar isn’t going to hurt you not selecting him and price himself out of your team. He’s also not going to hurt you starting him in your team because it’s likely he finishes the year as a top 6 forward. Its like starting Dustin Martin.

For what it’s worth, conversely if Dunkley snags some decent midfield minutes R1 - he could easily notch up a 150 and you’ll potentially be chasing him the rest of the year. I think that if you’re not starting Dunkley because you’re worried about the volatility of his role, then you shouldn’t be trading him in later on for the same reason (unless mid role is obvious).

 

[JDWCE]

Marshall is an interesting prospect because on exposed form (with Ryder in the side) he isn’t pushing much past 100. At his price point (94), there’s upside but not a lot of ceiling...what I’m saying is RoMar isn’t going to hurt you not selecting him and price himself out of your team. He’s also not going to hurt you starting him in your team because it’s likely he finishes the year as a top 6 forward. Its like starting Dustin Martin.

For what it’s worth, conversely if Dunkley snags some decent midfield minutes R1 - he could easily notch up a 150 and you’ll potentially be chasing him the rest of the year. I think that if you’re not starting Dunkley because you’re worried about the volatility of his role, then you shouldn’t be trading him in later on for the same reason (unless mid role is obvious).

 

[Bastyy]

With Adams most likely not playing round 1 could we see J.Elliot have more of a run through the midfield? Mid/Forward at 545k

 

[Zevon]

Marshall is an interesting prospect because on exposed form (with Ryder in the side) he isn’t pushing much past 100. At his price point (94), there’s upside but not a lot of ceiling...what I’m saying is RoMar isn’t going to hurt you not selecting him and price himself out of your team. He’s also not going to hurt you starting him in your team because it’s likely he finishes the year as a top 6 forward. Its like starting Dustin Martin.

For what it’s worth, conversely if Dunkley snags some decent midfield minutes R1 - he could easily notch up a 150 and you’ll potentially be chasing him the rest of the year. I think that if you’re not starting Dunkley because you’re worried about the volatility of his role, then you shouldn’t be trading him in later on for the same reason (unless mid role is obvious).

Nailed it. I think Dunkley is basically a start him or leave him sort of prospect. If he’s playing in the middle and punching out 120s to start the year you get full benefit, whereas those that jump on later having “had a look at him” miss those 120s and they’ve also got him when he’s 2-3 weeks closer to a potential role change if the Doggies drop a few games and Bevo wants a different mix. So yeah that’s why I’m going against the popular thinking with Dunks and he’s currently in my team. As I see it, at absolute worst he gets the same dodgy role as last year and goes at around 90 for a while (came home at 96 even after his CBAs dropped off a cliff)... not ideal but not a season killer. Whereas his ceiling could get you straight into the top 100 if he has the role and goes bang early.

As for Marshall, you’re right he won’t hurt you much whether you own him or not. For me the upside or “value” comes not so much in his price vs average (although that would change markedly if/when Ryder misses games) but more that he is that invaluable link to the ruck line that enables you to gamble on an underpriced R2. Worth paying up for that.

 

[Cotchy9]

I think you’re right, even at worst Dunkley is a 90 which is almost top 6 anyway

 

[Zevon]

With Adams most likely not playing round 1 could we see J.Elliot have more of a run through the midfield? Mid/Forward at 545k

Firmly on my watchlist give how he finished 2020 and the CBAs he had

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Marshall is an interesting prospect because on exposed form (with Ryder in the side) he isn’t pushing much past 100. At his price point (94), there’s upside but not a lot of ceiling...what I’m saying is RoMar isn’t going to hurt you not selecting him and price himself out of your team. He’s also not going to hurt you starting him in your team because it’s likely he finishes the year as a top 6 forward. Its like starting Dustin Martin.

For what it’s worth, conversely if Dunkley snags some decent midfield minutes R1 - he could easily notch up a 150 and you’ll potentially be chasing him the rest of the year. I think that if you’re not starting Dunkley because you’re worried about the volatility of his role, then you shouldn’t be trading him in later on for the same reason (unless mid role is obvious).

Of the relatively long list of players I will not be touching this season Josh Dunkley is number 1 on that list.