Intro
This shapes as one of the more significant Q-Clashes/Pineapple Grapples since the first match between the sides way back in May 2011. The least said about the result of that particular game the better.
Over the journey, there has largely been a sense of confected rivalry, with little riding on the outcome except bragging rights. in recent seasons, when we have been genuinely "good", the Suns have been just as genuinely "bad". They haven't come within the proverbial bull's roar of upsetting us since we started out Finals run in 2019. More about that later.*
The Suns had a golden opportunity to really get into the Finals mix last Sunday. They had the dream result the previous day when Richmond somehow found a way to lose to the much ridiculed Norf. With it all to play for, the Suns pooped the bed and turned in their most inept performance of the season against the Bombers
Now for the in depth analysis and other important quantitative stuff that needs to be considered to assist me pontificate on the outcome.
Last time we met
Round 6 2022
Brisbane 21.6.132 v GC 11.14 80 at Metricon
This was the game where a rampant Zac Bailey kicked 6 goals and our forward line ran riot. Piece of cake, right?
Well, not quite.The Suns showed a fair bit that night. The midfield battle was pretty even but both our scoring efficiency AND accuracy blew the scoreboard out. They also stubbed their collective toes by missing easy scoring opportunities with woeful set shot kicking for goal. I don't know what it looked like on TV but at the ground, I never really felt totally comfortable until we put the issue beyond doubt with a big last quarter. At three quarter time they had more scoring shots than us. 7.12 to 14.4 AND also "won" the inside 50 count for the game by 57-53
Form Line- last 8
Lions - LWLWLWLW
Suns - LWWWLLWL
Our form looks like a game of Noughts and Crosses but there were some mitigating circumstances with our last Covid and injury riddled loss.
They went on a three game tear then lost a couple narrowly, then had a brilliant win against the Tigers before buggering it up against the Bombers
*Head to Head
Played 22 times
Lions 16-6 Suns
Whilst I'm not a huge fan of reading too much into raw HTH data, the fact is we have won the last seven (7) encounters AND by an average margin of 52 points. That's just more than having the wood on an opponent. That's a domination.
Selection Table
Lions
Some real selection dilemmas this week.
Zorko, Berry, Rich, Oscar and Prior are all reportedly available for selection.
We have gone from being injury and Covid riddled two weeks ago, to now having an embarrassment of riches.
Whatever happens, Matho has made a compelling case to be retained. He added grunt, defensive starch and enthusiasm to a midfield that has looked somewhat jaded at times and at other times downright brittle. In the light of Fage's comments at the GWS post match presser, I would be genuinely shocked if Matho was omitted
INS: Zorko, Rich, Berry ,Oscar
OUTS: Sharp, Cockatoo, Ah Chee, Fort
Sharp is an obvious out.
Anyone else who misses out can consider themselves very unlucky, including Prior who I like a lot
Suns
Not nearly as many choices to make. They had just about their best available team out there against the Bombers, given their injury list to some of their best players. It wouldn't surprise to see them go with an unchanged lineup
Prediction
It looks like the Suns blew their Finals chances with that forgettable performance against the Bombers. They might have mentally checked out for this season but somehow I doubt it. Love them or hate them, they have shown some real character this season and I doubt whether they are going to just roll over and hand us the game on a platter. They are still talking up their chances of making the Finals.
Irrespective, whoever we bring in this week are upgrades in personnel from last week, when we easily accounted for GWS.
I'm expecting the Suns to really bring it but unless we revert to total whimp-mode in the midfield, we should have enough at both ends of the field to get the job done.
Lions by 26 points
This shapes as one of the more significant Q-Clashes/Pineapple Grapples since the first match between the sides way back in May 2011. The least said about the result of that particular game the better.
Over the journey, there has largely been a sense of confected rivalry, with little riding on the outcome except bragging rights. in recent seasons, when we have been genuinely "good", the Suns have been just as genuinely "bad". They haven't come within the proverbial bull's roar of upsetting us since we started out Finals run in 2019. More about that later.*
The Suns had a golden opportunity to really get into the Finals mix last Sunday. They had the dream result the previous day when Richmond somehow found a way to lose to the much ridiculed Norf. With it all to play for, the Suns pooped the bed and turned in their most inept performance of the season against the Bombers
Now for the in depth analysis and other important quantitative stuff that needs to be considered to assist me pontificate on the outcome.
Last time we met
Round 6 2022
Brisbane 21.6.132 v GC 11.14 80 at Metricon
This was the game where a rampant Zac Bailey kicked 6 goals and our forward line ran riot. Piece of cake, right?
Well, not quite.The Suns showed a fair bit that night. The midfield battle was pretty even but both our scoring efficiency AND accuracy blew the scoreboard out. They also stubbed their collective toes by missing easy scoring opportunities with woeful set shot kicking for goal. I don't know what it looked like on TV but at the ground, I never really felt totally comfortable until we put the issue beyond doubt with a big last quarter. At three quarter time they had more scoring shots than us. 7.12 to 14.4 AND also "won" the inside 50 count for the game by 57-53
Form Line- last 8
Lions - LWLWLWLW
Suns - LWWWLLWL
Our form looks like a game of Noughts and Crosses but there were some mitigating circumstances with our last Covid and injury riddled loss.
They went on a three game tear then lost a couple narrowly, then had a brilliant win against the Tigers before buggering it up against the Bombers
*Head to Head
Played 22 times
Lions 16-6 Suns
Whilst I'm not a huge fan of reading too much into raw HTH data, the fact is we have won the last seven (7) encounters AND by an average margin of 52 points. That's just more than having the wood on an opponent. That's a domination.
Selection Table
Lions
Some real selection dilemmas this week.
Zorko, Berry, Rich, Oscar and Prior are all reportedly available for selection.
We have gone from being injury and Covid riddled two weeks ago, to now having an embarrassment of riches.
Whatever happens, Matho has made a compelling case to be retained. He added grunt, defensive starch and enthusiasm to a midfield that has looked somewhat jaded at times and at other times downright brittle. In the light of Fage's comments at the GWS post match presser, I would be genuinely shocked if Matho was omitted
INS: Zorko, Rich, Berry ,Oscar
OUTS: Sharp, Cockatoo, Ah Chee, Fort
Sharp is an obvious out.
Anyone else who misses out can consider themselves very unlucky, including Prior who I like a lot
Suns
Not nearly as many choices to make. They had just about their best available team out there against the Bombers, given their injury list to some of their best players. It wouldn't surprise to see them go with an unchanged lineup
Prediction
It looks like the Suns blew their Finals chances with that forgettable performance against the Bombers. They might have mentally checked out for this season but somehow I doubt it. Love them or hate them, they have shown some real character this season and I doubt whether they are going to just roll over and hand us the game on a platter. They are still talking up their chances of making the Finals.
Irrespective, whoever we bring in this week are upgrades in personnel from last week, when we easily accounted for GWS.
I'm expecting the Suns to really bring it but unless we revert to total whimp-mode in the midfield, we should have enough at both ends of the field to get the job done.
Lions by 26 points
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