Oppo Camp Other Games Rolling Thread (2023)

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It’s a complete misuse of statistics. Melbourne’s ‘expected score’ shouldn’t be an average of kicking accuracy league wide, it should come from an average of Melbourne’s own kicking accuracy. And clearly theirs is below league average because of their poor kicking skills.

Put another way to reach the same amount of points Melbourne needs more scoring shots and more inside 50s than other teams. So they pump it i50 at all costs with extremely long kicks from their mids. If one game was a statistical anomaly then they’d have a point but both their finals and the Kings bday game shows that it’s part of their gameplan (this is from memory I’m sure it’s been a thing all
season).

The fact that the coach is publicly backing the plan (they ‘dominated the game’ against us according to Goodwin which is nonsense except the last quarter) shows pure stubbornness in the face of data.

I also wonder if a dinky off balance snap ala kozzy close to goal really takes into Ex that the shot is no real chance. As opposed to shots on goal by players who tke enough time and balance. I reckon both of them get marked as shots in play, maybe under pressure - although i dont know how they calculate the Ex for each shot. I bet it isnt that accurate
 
I also wonder if a dinky off balance snap ala kozzy close to goal really takes into Ex that the shot is no real chance. As opposed to shots on goal by players who tke enough time and balance. I reckon both of them get marked as shots in play, maybe under pressure - although i dont know how they calculate the Ex for each shot. I bet it isnt that accurate
Expected score is a really bad stat. Not just that it's based on league averages and that it's very difficult to determine the difficulty of a non set shot.

The worst of it is that it's given as a score. Ignoring that changing the outcome of any shot completely changes the game. Goal instead of a point, ball goes to the middle, who knows what happens from there, etc.

The other problems still remain but if they presented it as difficult goals kicked, easy goals missed etc, maybe just gave the chance to goal for each shot, or rolled it up into a single "accuracy against average" stat, it would be more acceptable.
 

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Praying for a brutal bruising affair. A couple of minor 10 day injuries wouldn’t go astray

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Do we seek redemption against the blues or bears? Does Bolton or Leppitsch square off against the club they once coached?
 
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Now if the Lions can do a job on the Blues and have a few in the casualty ward that miss next week that’ll make my weekend.
A win and a hamstring strain for Harris Andrews would do nicely (only to balance out McStay loss).
 
Now if the Lions can do a job on the Blues and have a few in the casualty ward that miss next week that’ll make my weekend.


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I don't wish injuries on anyone generally.
I've changed my thinking today after reading your post.
Hoping for a KPP or midfielder to go down in today's game.
Bring it footy gods.

It's usually us with the bad luck.

A report or two would also be just as awesome 👌
 
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