Prediction Our 2018 ladder finish (North fans only)

[GarnerSmash]

I'm aware of that, I am pointing out that is better Luke in more space rather than the conditions in which someone like Cunnington would thrive.

So skirting around the contest once the play starts to break?

 

[Snake_Baker]

So skirting around the contest once the play starts to break?

Half a kick behind the play.

Basically the role in which he has always excelled.

 

[GarnerSmash]

Half a kick behind the play.

Basically the role in which he has always excelled.

You can see in that footage that he is receiving handballs from Cunners. I think he would be just as valuable as the first or second receiver around the contest. A strong core in a bit of space allows him to clear the congestion and either go long, spot up or dish off.

 

[Snake_Baker]

You can see in that footage that he is receiving handballs from Cunners. I think he would be just as valuable as the first or second receiver around the contest. A strong core in a bit of space allows him to clear the congestion and either go long, spot up or dish off.

First, no, second yes, but that's what I infer by "half a kick behind the play".

In a centre clearance/stoppage first receiver scenario, the opposition only has to sit 2-3 metres forward of his left side to negate any benefit that could be derived from this scenario. Luke doesn't have the burst acceleration or core strength at the moment to facilitate that setup, and I have doubts he will ever have the Martin/Dangerfield type strength through his waist and upper leg area..

 

[GarnerSmash]

First, no, second yes, but that's what I infer by "half a kick behind the play".

In a centre clearance/stoppage first receiver scenario, the opposition only has to sit 2-3 metres forward of his left side to negate any benefit that could be derived from this scenario. Luke doesn't have the burst acceleration or core strength at the moment to facilitate that setup, and I have doubts he will ever have the Martin/Dangerfield type strength through his waist and upper leg area..

I think size wise he will be fine in that first receiver role. 190cm, 90kgs. Showed good signs in this regard last year.

 

[Snake_Baker]

I think size wise he will be fine in that first receiver role. 190cm, 90kgs. Showed good signs in this regard last year.

A lot of time it comes down to weight distribution mate.

Just look at Majak.

 

[GarnerSmash]

A lot of time it comes down to weight distribution mate.

Just look at Majak.

Luke ain't big up top. Most of that weight sits though his hips and thighs.

 

[Horace]

Depends if you play one man short again with Ben Jacobs in the 22. Don't think there is a place for just pure taggers in today's Football. Let's look at the last couple of years and the best sides. GWS, Richmond, Sydney, Adelaide and the Bulldogs. None have a pathetically defensive tagger like you do in Jacobs. If they wan't to quieten someone down who have they used ? Gws ... Ward, Coniglio ? Richmond ... Miles, Prestia, Lambert ? Sydney ... Hewett ? Bulldogs ... Picken, Liberatore ? Hardly pure defensive taggers. Going in one man short with Jacobs in the side if he continues the boring completely 100% defensive tag role isn't going to improve your side. If anything it shows a defeated attitude. Basically saying righto, their midfields better.

What a load of rubbish. Have you ever seen him play?

 

[MaddAdam]

I hate to say it, but I think we will finish stone motherless last.

 

[ansonholt]

I hate to say it, but I think we will finish stone motherless last.

We'll finish about both Qld sides on what I've seen so far.

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[giantroo]

What are we all thinking now?

 

[Snake_Baker]

What are we all thinking now?

The availability of our best 4-5 midfielders + Brown + Waite + Tarrant + a firing Goldstein is going to play a big role in how things turn out.

Matthew Lloyd mentioned an interesting stat: There was only one change to the top 8 after round 8 in 2017.

The difference currently between 4th and 11th is percentage.

We have Port (H), Sydney (A), Richmond (H), GWS (H), Freo (A), Bris (H), Geelong (A) and then the bye.

If we can win 3-4 of those matches then we can play finals. Port this week is probably a must win.

 

[Harris 10]

Depends if you play one man short again with Ben Jacobs in the 22. Don't think there is a place for just pure taggers in today's Football. Let's look at the last couple of years and the best sides. GWS, Richmond, Sydney, Adelaide and the Bulldogs. None have a pathetically defensive tagger like you do in Jacobs. If they wan't to quieten someone down who have they used ? Gws ... Ward, Coniglio ? Richmond ... Miles, Prestia, Lambert ? Sydney ... Hewett ? Bulldogs ... Picken, Liberatore ? Hardly pure defensive taggers. Going in one man short with Jacobs in the side if he continues the boring completely 100% defensive tag role isn't going to improve your side. If anything it shows a defeated attitude. Basically saying righto, their midfields better.

Can’t wait to we start playing with a full side.

 

[naturally north]

What are we all thinking now?

" if we don't suffer injuries we'll go very well".

" We don't have a lot of depth atm".

 

[see see]

What are we all thinking now?

The spoon is out of the equation - even if we don't win again for the rest of the season, Carlton aren't going to catch us.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

I can’t see us finishing bottom 4 especially with what Brisbane and Carlton have served up thus far.

If we can maintain some sort of form that we’ve showed over the past few weeks then while maintaining a decent injury list then we’ll be looking at 7-11th

 

[The Nostradamus]

Making finals would be amazing

But if we can't then bottom 6/7 is a better outcome then just missing the 8 imo

Finishing anywhere except 9,10,11,18

 

[Smoocher]

Looking at 12th.
We really don’t have much midfield depth and even Scott eluded to this on the couch Monday night.
Our challenges will come if we loose one or two midfielders.


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[Boro]

I had us as spooners...Now i think we'll be winning the GF...

In all seriousness, I think the next month decides...if we somehow manage a couple of wins we are a realistic shot at finals IF our spine stays fit and healthy. If we lose all four then a finish of 13-16th is likely.

Either way, this year is exciting, with some great performances already and a real belief that the younger guys coming through have some talent. 2007 we were spoon favourites and finished 4th...fingers crossed we are on the way to a repeat.

 

[the big lebowski]

Well having the best percentage in the league is going to have an impact.

I think that Carlton and Brisbane will be bottom 2, but Brisbane will get going at some stage and be harder to beat. St kilda will start to win a few games too but look like a 3rd last team.

We still have 2 x Bulldogs, 2 x Brisbane, 1 x Good Coast, 1 x St Kilda. Those games will be very important in the wash up.

 

[RobZombie]

In a couple of other threads I’ve predicted 8 wins and pick 6. The pick 6 thing was pulled out of my arse a bit, so I checked. In the 18 team era, 13th place (pick 6) has been



I feel like we’re 1 win ahead of expectations right now, and a reasonable chance to be 2 wins up vs Port. Beating Hawks and Port would bring the likes of *and Collingwood into play as 50-50 games, and Western are looking ordinary so far. We get GWS and WCE in Hobart, both of whom are good but beatable. Freo look better than I expected and we have to go over there. I’ve got us winning 7 more, which assumes winning this week, one of our two Hobart games, splitting the pair with Western and losing to *, Collingwood and Freo as well as the other likely top 8 teams.

So let’s say 10 wins. 12th on the ladder for the 18 team era is

Even allowing for 2012/13 having two expansion teams inflating mid table wins, you basically need 11 wins to finish higher than 12th. Pick 7 is not as good as pick 6 but probably still out of the mid-table danger zone regarding the super draft and the risk of having to use our first on TT.

At the 12 win mark you’re a genuine shot at finals, which I feel would be actually good for us and our prospects as a potential destination club. It’s possible to win 10 and finish 13th but not likely. 11 is the actual mid-table mediocrity danger zone.

So. My original expectation isn’t too far off. Probably adjusting it up a tad at this point but hoping like he’ll for anything but 11.

 

[the big lebowski]

In a couple of other threads I’ve predicted 8 wins and pick 6. The pick 6 thing was pulled out of my arse a bit, so I checked. In the 18 team era, 13th place (pick 6) has been

View attachment 487928

I feel like we’re 1 win ahead of expectations right now, and a reasonable chance to be 2 wins up vs Port. Beating Hawks and Port would bring the likes of *and Collingwood into play as 50-50 games, and Western are looking ordinary so far. We get GWS and WCE in Hobart, both of whom are good but beatable. Freo look better than I expected and we have to go over there. I’ve got us winning 7 more, which assumes winning this week, one of our two Hobart games, splitting the pair with Western and losing to *, Collingwood and Freo as well as the other likely top 8 teams.

So let’s say 10 wins. 12th on the ladder for the 18 team era is
View attachment 487931
Even allowing for 2012/13 having two expansion teams inflating mid table wins, you basically need 11 wins to finish higher than 12th. Pick 7 is not as good as pick 6 but probably still out of the mid-table danger zone regarding the super draft and the risk of having to use our first on TT.

At the 12 win mark you’re a genuine shot at finals, which I feel would be actually good for us and our prospects as a potential destination club. It’s possible to win 10 and finish 13th but not likely. 11 is the actual mid-table mediocrity danger zone.

So. My original expectation isn’t too far off. Probably adjusting it up a tad at this point but hoping like he’ll for anything but 11.

Great analysis. Pick 6 or 7 would be great and probably the sweet spot for gun mid plus Thomas plus showing enough for mature age recruits to see we are on the way up.

 

[rippersnipper]

Okay so I like winning but I want Thomas and another high draft pick. Ffs

 

[Snake_Baker]

In a couple of other threads I’ve predicted 8 wins and pick 6. The pick 6 thing was pulled out of my arse a bit, so I checked. In the 18 team era, 13th place (pick 6) has been

View attachment 487928

I feel like we’re 1 win ahead of expectations right now, and a reasonable chance to be 2 wins up vs Port. Beating Hawks and Port would bring the likes of *and Collingwood into play as 50-50 games, and Western are looking ordinary so far. We get GWS and WCE in Hobart, both of whom are good but beatable. Freo look better than I expected and we have to go over there. I’ve got us winning 7 more, which assumes winning this week, one of our two Hobart games, splitting the pair with Western and losing to *, Collingwood and Freo as well as the other likely top 8 teams.

So let’s say 10 wins. 12th on the ladder for the 18 team era is
View attachment 487931
Even allowing for 2012/13 having two expansion teams inflating mid table wins, you basically need 11 wins to finish higher than 12th. Pick 7 is not as good as pick 6 but probably still out of the mid-table danger zone regarding the super draft and the risk of having to use our first on TT.

At the 12 win mark you’re a genuine shot at finals, which I feel would be actually good for us and our prospects as a potential destination club. It’s possible to win 10 and finish 13th but not likely. 11 is the actual mid-table mediocrity danger zone.

So. My original expectation isn’t too far off. Probably adjusting it up a tad at this point but hoping like he’ll for anything but 11.

We're still in the Bytel/Hill/Caldwell/Smith area if we finish with pick 7.

 

[RobZombie]

Great analysis. Pick 6 or 7 would be great and probably the sweet spot for gun mid plus Thomas plus showing enough for mature age recruits to see we are on the way up.

Further to that, in the other direction pick 5 has gone to teams with 5, 8, 7, 6, 7, and 8 wins. Safe to say pick 5 is out of play.