List Mgmt. Our Trade/FA, Suburban & Country Town Thread

[Sweeetleftfoot]

Spot on mate. Players vs picks?? Where do players come from? The bloody draft. Some just don’t seem to understand that. Players are just picks that have been developed by a club and then they make you pay a premium for them to get them in. Horrible strategy to just neglect the draft and adopt this method only.

No it’s not, the club like many here obviously feel that the window is open.

If your team is in the window are you trading in known quantities or rolling the dice on draft picks ?

 

[Ugene41]

They’ve offered Richard’s 3 years with a trigger for 4. That’s not a deal for someone without value

I never said Richards was without value. There's still a massive gap between that and a 2x reigning contracted AA.

 

[Apex36]

His stats look like he's average to above average to me?

His 2023 stats are all above average except tackling which was elite.

No reason why he can’t get back to that level with another preseason to gel with his team mates.

 

[manicpie]

He's been drinking too much of his bath water.

I think that's a very accurate assessment

 

[Stronzatello]

No it’s not, the club like many here obviously feel that the window is open.

If your team is in the window are you trading in known quantities or rolling the dice on draft picks ?

You simply can’t neglect your future, to go all in for the now. If we don’t win a flag next year, we’re up against it in the three years beyond that.

Pendles, Checkers, Sidey, Howe, Cox, Elliott, WHE, Mitchell will all go in the years following next.

A balance must be struck in order to challenge every 10 years. This is not the right strategy at all.

 

[Mick F]

Pretty big unders. Media have speculated that North have offered their future first, which most would be thinking thats a 1-5 pick next year. If he picked us then the only way I can see us getting it done would be involving splitting out future first into this year and adding on to pick 12 for Noble (which I still think we would need to add more in to get done). Something like Noble Richards and Future 1st for Houston and a future third (for points).

I doubt Port will knock back North’s offer for pick 15, Noble and Richards.

 

[Seedsfan]

Spot on mate. Players vs picks?? Where do players come from? The bloody draft. Some just don’t seem to understand that. Players are just picks that have been developed by a club and then they make you pay a premium for them to get them in. Horrible strategy to just neglect the draft and adopt this method only.

Also you have a higher chance of success taking two first rounders to the draft than you do trading for a single player

 

[stormskye]

It's because those people are running with "Schrodinger's draft pick". A player traded in for a mid to late first round pick is a more or less known quantity, likely an average to good player. Whereas a mid to late first round draft pick could be anything from terrible to elite. So when that pick gets traded out, their natural bias is to think that the hypothetical player taken with pick was always going to be elite or at a minimum better than the player traded in.

Loss aversion bias is a really big part of this as well in that people naturally feel more pain from what they've lost than joy in what they've gained. You can see it in the posters who are more worried about where the team is going to be in 3 years than trying to win a flag now.

100%. For every Holmes there’s a fin macrae. For every curnow there’s a Mathew Jefferson. For every degoey there’s a Dylan Stephens.

It’s like these posters think Brisbane haven’t traded out first rounders…

 

[sr36]

What would it take?

A compliant GC to trade us pick 12 and 20 for Noble, future first and later picks. And Port to rate the draft really highly.

 

[Jasper84]

No it’s not, the club like many here obviously feel that the window is open.

If your team is in the window are you trading in known quantities or rolling the dice on draft picks ?

In the last 10 years, from all the players we have traded in, only one has been delisted by the club. Sam Murray. And that was only because of the drug issue, not playing ability. Whereas drafted players...

 

[Seedsfan]

It's because those people are running with "Schrodinger's draft pick". A player traded in for a mid to late first round pick is a more or less known quantity, likely an average to good player. Whereas a mid to late first round draft pick could be anything from terrible to elite. So when that pick gets traded out, their natural bias is to think that the hypothetical player taken with pick was always going to be elite or at a minimum better than the player traded in.

Loss aversion bias is a really big part of this as well in that people naturally feel more pain from what they've lost than joy in what they've gained. You can see it in the posters who are more worried about where the team is going to be in 3 years than trying to win a flag now.

Point to an example where we have traded two first rounders and it has been better than taking the picks to the draft?

 

[jimmy35]

You simply can’t neglect your future, to go all in for the now. If we don’t win a flag next year, we’re up against it in the three years beyond that.

Pendles, Checkers, Sidey, Howe, Cox, Elliott, WHE, Mitchell will all go in the years following next.

A balance must be struck in order to challenge every 10 years. This is not the right strategy at all.

Would seem that Fly thinks it is. I know whom I going to take more notice of.

 

[Apex36]

Didn't we do the same to Lipinski and pay a pick on the 40s? Richards is not worth anything, hence I hope I stays because he's shown potential.

This is true but the dogs initially didn’t offer Lipinski a contract and then only offered him a 2 year minimum chips deal to retain him. From what I can see we’ve not only offered him a deal but then upped it in the hopes of retaining him.
Add to that, we’re in a position where Port can’t get him through the PSD if negotiations break down, and in that scenario he’s likely to stay at Collingwood, it makes Ports bargaining position significantly weaker than ours was when we were trading in Lipinski.

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

Didn't we do the same to Lipinski and pay a pick on the 40s? Richards is not worth anything, hence I hope I stays because he's shown potential.

The Dogs weren't interested in retaining Lipinski, nor were they particularly optimistic about his chances of playing senior footy with them.

We have an offer on the table for Richards that we recently increased. Our primary intention is to retain him and play him in our best 22.

That makes the price different.

If they want to be dickheads about the price they're willing to pay, I'd back ourselves to talk him into staying rather than entering the draft system of he doesn't get the trade.

 

[manicpie]

Point to an example where we have traded two first rounders and it has been better than taking the picks to the draft?

We won the flag without these 2 first rounders. We did it by adding the likes of leggy and Frampton who couldn't get a game anywhere else. Have some faith in the club

 

[stormskye]

You simply can’t neglect your future, to go all in for the now. If we don’t win a flag next year, we’re up against it in the three years beyond that.

Pendles, Checkers, Sidey, Howe, Cox, Elliott, WHE, Mitchell will all go in the years following next.

A balance must be struck in order to challenge every 10 years. This is not the right strategy at all.

Do you think you know more about list management than fly and leppa?

 

[stormskye]

Point to an example where we have traded two first rounders and it has been better than taking the picks to the draft?

I’d take Houston over reef and macrae

 

[sr36]

Point to an example where we have traded two first rounders and it has been better than taking the picks to the draft?

Treloar. We stuffed the salary cap, but Treloar was worth the price paid.

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

A compliant GC to trade us pick 12 and 20 for Noble, future first and later picks. And Port to rate the draft really highly.

12, 20 and Richards for Houston would probably get it done, but I don't think I'd want to do that.

 

[jimmy35]

Do you think you know more about list management than fly and leppa?

That’s a big 10-4 good buddy.

 

[Jasper84]

Point to an example where we have traded two first rounders and it has been better than taking the picks to the draft?

Perfect example of my point. You've already decided that we were going to draft better players than the ones we traded in. Who says that the picks traded for Treloar weren't going to turn into Sharenberg/Freeman types?

 

[Ugene41]

I think he'd rather stay at Port than play for norf. I just hope there's some way of getting it done with having to give up too much.

There is no way of getting it done without giving too much.

That's the crazy thing about posters in this thread. They harp on about how we don't realize how good Houston is and why we would want a draft pick instead of a proven gun when we're in the window. And then think we can get him for a draft pick from Noble plus Richards.

 

[stormskye]

Perfect example of my point. You've already decided that we were going to draft better players than the ones we traded in. Who says that the picks traded for Treloar weren't going to turn into Sharenberg/Freeman types?

Every teens pick we use will always be a nick daicos. Not the average 100 game player which the stats suggest…

 

[manicpie]

There is no way of getting it done without giving too much.

That's the crazy thing about posters in this thread. They harp on about how we don't realize how good Houston is and why we would want a draft pick instead of a proven gun when we're in the window. And then think we can get him for a draft pick from Noble plus Richards.

The only real thing we have to go by is if Dan chooses us, that would mean his manager has confidence that we can get it done. I'm happy which ever way it goes

 

[Mollythedolly]

His stats look like he's average to above average to me?

Rated elite for tackles, tackles i50, and marks i50. That’s all it takes for him to be ranked elite.