List Mgmt. Our Trade/FA, Suburban & Country Town Thread

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stormskye said:
Isn’t there a caveat of list spots for picks used?
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Yeah
They can always package those picks up so you can go in with whats required
They have 5 list spots open already, then add in rioli, bolton and baker thats 8, but dont think they'll use that many at once. Maybe leave some for rookie, SSP and MSD
 
Tadpole said:
Keep in his ear over the next 12 months, and see if we can convince him to join a genuine premiership chance instead of sticking with a perennial bottom dweller.

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We need to be in his ear now about next year. Sell him the plan on Naicos and him being the best 1-2 punch in the game for the next decade
 

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WakeUpPies said:
Why not? Are you planning on drafting a Buckley or Pendles at pick 13? Naicos fell into our lap as a F/S. What pick was De Goey?

This obsession with mid first round picks is odd when a proven AA player is on the table. We can rebuild with top 5 picks after we lose half our top 22 to retirement.
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I've not stated we shouldn't trade for Houston.

My argument is on general list building philosophy and trading out of too many drafts over a period of time with an old list and dearth of youthful high end talent coming through across the board.
 
manicpie said:
This draft is like any other. Outstanding top 10ish and then its a lottery after that. There are some potentially good KPP from 15 - 30 but that's about it. Not falling for the super draft thingy. There'll be bargains and there will be flops
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I read elsewhere it has a very even 35 to 40 but top end is not at the 2001 or 2021 level.

So you'd have to say it a strong but not super draft (very few are).
 
This article is from Jake Niall. Agree or not, it's his opinion.

Collingwood are ahead of Carlton in the tender for the services of Dan Houston, in large part because the Magpies are willing to pay a heftier price for the All-Australian defender.

If all goes according to plan, they will land Houston for their future first-round pick, plus the pick 23 they gain from the Suns for John Noble and perhaps smoking Joe Richards (who wants to join Port Adelaide) thrown in as a pair of steak knives.

But to be “in the box seat” for Houston also means boxing yourself in to a deal that carries significant risks for the Magpies, whose apparent post-season strategy, if there is one, is to double down on mature players at the expense of draft picks.
Craig McRae put this short-term mindset on record less than a fortnight ago. “I don’t want picks, I want players,” he said on his weekly segment on SEN. It was a surprising comment from a coach renowned for his development coaching acumen.

That said, if you’ve listened to Collingwood this year, it has been plain that there is a prevailing view that the draft’s gravitational pull can be circumvented and they can remain in premiership contention by a mix of trading, free agency and with less reliance on the draft. The impression given is that the draft will not be their one wood.
They seem to believe they can emulate Geelong, who have hung around the top for longer than the system typically tolerates.

The less optimistic scenario would be to follow Richmond’s path, post-2022, when Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper arrived – at high draft cost – as the cliff face beckoned.
Houston had expressed a preference for Carlton but the Blues, unlike the Pies, have baulked at the draft cost – they don’t wish to forfeit their 2024 first pick.


In some quarters, Carlton’s caution has prompted criticism. It is noteworthy, though, that Carlton – a mature team, but with a younger core than Collingwood – have imposed more restraint on how much access to quality youth they will sacrifice for even an All-Australian half-back.
Houston, in this column’s view, would serve Carlton’s interests better than Collingwood’s, given the state of each club’s list, their age and positional profiles – and what they’re risking.

Collingwood’s major problem in landing Houston is that they have what seems to be only a fleeting premiership window ahead, due to the large group of veterans who will exit next year and in 2026.
All told, they will enter 2025 with nine players aged 30 plus – and with Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom and Jeremy Howe in their mid-30s. Darcy Cameron, who peaked in 2024, will turn 30 next year, as will Dan McStay, while Darcy Moore and Jordan De Goey will be 29 early in 2025.

Further, it’s questionable that Houston, 27, fits Collingwood’s most urgent immediate and long-term needs, which are for key position players at each end and prime midfielders to support Nick Daicos. The decision to pay the (Harry) Perryman six years on more than $850,000 was partly to redress the midfield, but also for Perryman’s flexibility, which is prized in new list manager Justin Leppitsch’s ratings system.
More worrisome for the Magpies, however, is what lies underneath. Outside the phenomenal Daicos, they lack standouts in the under-23 demographic. Ed Allan has significant upside, Tew Jiath has athletic traits, Harvey Harrison showed talent and there might be others emerging but the lack of high draft picks – the Pies finished top six five times from 2018 to 2023 – has impacted on the young talent at McRae’s disposal.

Collingwood also have traded away future draft picks no fewer than four times: in 2016 (Adam Treloar), 2019 (Dayne Beams), 2021 (knowing Nick Daicos was coming but they traded away what became pick No.2) and 2024 (Lachie Schultz); they acquired Treloar for two top 10 picks (2015-16) and Beams for a pair of late first-rounders in what was a disastrous deal.

If they trade for Houston, it will be the fifth time in nine years they’ve given up future firsts.

The Magpies have surmounted these botched trades and lack of draft capital by excellent cheap trades for Howe, Cameron, Bobby Hill, Will Hoskin-Elliott and the mother of all steak knives, Jack Crisp. They’ve been assisted, too, by the father-son rule (the Daicii and Moore) and academy (Isaac Quaynor) and have a knack for finding players late.

But father-sons or not, the majority of the top dozen players in their 2023 flag were still drafted – the Daicos brothers, De Goey, Moore, Maynard, Pendlebury and Sidebottom.

Kane Cornes has cautioned Collingwood against trading away their draft capital and I’m inclined to concur. Cornes made the obvious comparison with Richmond in 2022 and Hawthorn in 2016, when Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara were acquired, the latter at great draft cost, in what was hailed as a coup.

Seven years later, Mitchell and O’Meara were at their third clubs, with the Hawks paying portions of their contracts, as they changed tack and went into a radical rebuild under Sam Mitchell that delivered this year.

Can Collingwood avert the cliff face, like Geelong to this point, or will they accelerate over it, in the manner of Thelma and Louise? The risks of the trade are heightened considering Tasmania will gut the draft soon and the Pies will be bystanders in the top 25 of what is a deep 2024 draft.

Leppitsch, seemingly keen to make a strong first impression as list boss, acknowledged the need to balance Collingwood’s present needs with “hope” for the future in an interview with the AFL website for trade period.

If they win the 2025 premiership, then the Houston pursuit will be vindicated. If they make the grand final, it will be more than defensible. But if they don’t seriously contend in 2025 and front up without a top 12 draft pick – after sacrificing one this year – the cost will be steep.
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www.theage.com.au

A hefty price: Why the Pies’ pursuit of Houston is risky

Collingwood are ahead of Carlton in the tender for the services of Dan Houston but the deal carries risks for the Magpies.
www.theage.com.au www.theage.com.au
 
Anzacday said:
Imagine if we pretend to want Houston to force the blueballers to up their offer.
We swap players/picks with GCS & PA and go to the draft.
The media would have to do a complete 180 🤣
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Whichever way this pans out, it's a win-win for us - a dual AA star or some good picks in a strong draft.
 
loki04 said:
Yeah I'm not against getting Houston.

I'm against the train of thought of trading out of drafts on the regular.
People are speaking as if you can trade your way into an elite list without ever building a core group through the draft.
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I agree with you that we need to value our first round picks higher (whether that's using them in the draft or using them as trade capital) and was against using it for a role player like Schultz who is on a vastly different level to the A-grader that Houston is even though their trade cost might end up similar.

But there seems to be some misnomer that we've traded out of the draft on the regular. Since 2017, we've only missed out on drafting a first rounder in 2019 and could also continue that trend if we trade our F1 into this year and use it in the draft whilst taking McGuane next year. Signing Perryman as FA also means we now effectively have a first rounder from 2016. We've obviously been lucky with the timing of our FS and NGAs, but the timing of these would also have factored into our planning for when to attack trades.

We definitely haven't been mortgaging our future. Our crop of under 23's don't have much exposed AFL form simply because we have been contending with such a good core of older established players. That can change quickly as we saw in mid-2021 to mid-2022 when we prioritised the kids and McCreery, Henry, Ginnivan burst onto the scene and instantly transformed our forwardline from the Mayne/Varcoe/Josh Thomas days.
 
Cousin of Daicos said:
Here's the kicker, our drafting has mostly sucked over the last 5 years so without realising it Kane is actually kind of asking for us to suck even more.

I honestly wouldn't trust Hine as far as I can throw him with Pick 13

Leaving ourselves with low picks is actually playing right to Hine's strengths. So if the talk is true about this being a really deep draft are true, then it isn't an issue.
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Agreed - and tbh I think people like Kane and others are far too quick on dismissing young players these days. If they don't all come in and hit the ground running like an ND or Reid they're forgotten about.

We all saw the promising signs from Ed's last half of the season, HDM and TJ are in their first years and shown a few signs each. Really of that 5 Ryan appears to be the only "looming bust", but even then if out of 5 players in 3 years we've got 2 who hopefully become solid 150 gamers, an elite talent in Ed - and a bloke that's already the best player in the comp, you couldn't ask for much more than that.
 
celestial said:
It would depend on petracca's medical report. His age is a slight concern, and think he would cost significantly more than Houston. Would rather we get Houston and LDU instead.
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Let’s say a fully returned to fitness Trac. Same contract and $ he’s on though. He just wants out of Dees. But has a few suiters. Including us.
 

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manicpie said:
This draft is like any other. Outstanding top 10ish and then its a lottery after that. There are some potentially good KPP from 15 - 30 but that's about it. Not falling for the super draft thingy. There'll be bargains and there will be flops
Click to expand...
Exactly mate. Look at our better picks in recent years, mccreery and Richard’s in the 40’s and ginni a rookie.
 
Pistol Night said:
We need to be in his ear now about next year. Sell him the plan on Naicos and him being the best 1-2 punch in the game for the next decade
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LDU would be a good get. But to keep our options open (and speaking to other players), would be interested in talking to Butters too (only takes 2yr contracts for now).
 
manicpie said:
This draft is like any other. Outstanding top 10ish and then its a lottery after that. There are some potentially good KPP from 15 - 30 but that's about it. Not falling for the super draft thingy. There'll be bargains and there will be flops
Click to expand...
This draft is more even than most. If you don't realise that then you havent been focusing on the draft prospects this year.
Even those rated in the 30's are very good.
 
loki04 said:
I read elsewhere it has a very even 35 to 40 but top end is not at the 2001 or 2021 level.

So you'd have to say it a strong but not super draft (very few are).
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Every draft is the same. Maybe 5-8 stars in the top 20. A few handy players mixed in. And then 10 or so busts in the top 30. If you’re not in the top 10 it’s a lottery
 
Jen2310 said:
This draft is more even than most. If you don't realise that then you havent been focusing on the draft prospects this year.
Even those rated in the 30's are very good.
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It’s still a lottery Jen. We hear this every year. Couple of years ago the talk was a super draft of talls with keeler and co. Look how that panned out
 
stormskye said:
Exactly mate. Look at our better picks in recent years, mccreery and Richard’s in the 40’s and ginni a rookie.
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If we get 13 and not Houston, I'd try and split it and get 2 talls for picks between 20 and 25. We'll get 2 genuine KPP who won't be as speculative as most other years
 
Ugene41 said:
I agree with you that we need to value our first round picks higher (whether that's using them in the draft or using them as trade capital) and was against using it for a role player like Schultz who is on a vastly different level to the A-grader that Houston is even though their trade cost might end up similar.

But there seems to be some misnomer that we've traded out of the draft on the regular. Since 2017, we've only missed out on drafting a first rounder in 2019 and could also continue that trend if we trade our F1 into this year and use it in the draft whilst taking McGuane next year. Signing Perryman as FA also means we now effectively have a first rounder from 2016. We've obviously been lucky with the timing of our FS and NGAs, but the timing of these would also have factored into our planning for when to attack trades.

We definitely haven't been mortgaging our future. Our crop of under 23's don't have much exposed AFL form simply because we have been contending with such a good core of older established players. That can change quickly as we saw in mid-2021 to mid-2022 when we prioritised the kids and McCreery, Henry, Ginnivan burst onto the scene and instantly transformed our forwardline from the Mayne/Varcoe/Josh Thomas days.
Click to expand...

It's not only that we haven't been exposing the kids as much, it's that Hine has been getting a lot of our higher picks wrong.

Which is why there's a perception that "we skip first rounds" or whatever.
 
stormskye said:
It’s still a lottery Jen. We hear this every year. Couple of years ago the talk was a super draft of talls with keeler and co. Look how that panned out
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We of course dont know but its all the word from recruiters and draft experts. But its why clubs want to get into this draft We havent seen a draft like this since 2017
 

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