Recommitted Paddy Dow [OOC 2023] explored his options, but stayed

[Gw2_James]

Its a shame really, kid had potential, we ruined him. I doubt another club can turn him around, but i guess it might be worth a try?

I'd probably expect the trade to be of similar value to whatever we got for sps last year. Think that was like a late 3rd or 4th or something low like that.

 

[bluelad]

Kids confidence is shot. Just needs a new environment and a fresh start. Has some good tools.

It’s not all doom and gloom for the right pick IMO.


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[French Tiger]

Kids confidence is shot. Just needs a new environment and a fresh start. Has some good tools.

It’s not all doom and gloom for the right pick IMO.


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Perhaps like Will Brodie ?


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[Mutineer]

I think if you go back to Dows draft year and look at the draft camp testing his endurance results were very poor.

This poor endurance and work rate has been a major issue at Carlton. Midfielders with poor endurance need a second position because they can’t keep up in the midfield all game. I’m not sure he has a second position as he tends to be at his best around the clearances.

Dow has also spent more time on the bench than other players when playing seniors because of his inability to run out a game.

His flaws have been a bit of a stumbling block at Carlton. If another club can improve his endurance and improve his versatility maybe they will have more luck.


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Darren Burgess the fitness maestro now at Adelaide might be a chance...he's worked wonders with Darcy Fogarty in a short period of time and more generally the whole list.

 

[Rich01]

Another SOS bust

 

[Login]

Hopefully we can get a bottle of Windex to clean our trophy cabinet for him, I know it's asking a lot but would be a great deal if we can get it done.

 

[Go Woods]

S*** player, wouldn’t waste a list spot.

 

[mrposhman]

Hopefully we can get a bottle of Windex to clean our trophy cabinet for him, I know it's asking a lot but would be a great deal if we can get it done.

Probably better to use a broom to get rid of the cobwebs.

 

[King Cripps]

Another SOS bust

As was Weitering,Curnow and McKay in the one draft. Every recruiting manager has their hits and misses

 

[Rich01]

As was Weitering,Curnow and McKay in the one draft. Every recruiting manager has their hits and misses

That one draft is definitely what the SOS disciples keep going back to to justify his greatness.

 

[King Cripps]

That one draft is definitely what the SOS disciples keep going back to to justify his greatness.

Maybe you have to investigate a little deeper like same draft as P Dow he later picked De Koning around the 29 mark even Z Fisher was around pick 26 in the SPS draft. As I said before they all have their hits and misses and I’m not a Silvagni disciple

 

[Rich01]

Maybe you have to investigate a little deeper like same draft as P Dow he later picked De Koning around the 29 mark even Z Fisher was around pick 26 in the SPS draft. As I said before they all have their hits and misses and I’m not a Silvagni disciple

Yeah I didn’t want to get into the nitty gritty but Dow was a miss.

Those two drafts you mentioned had more SOS misses than hits. And Fisher is average at best.

Happy for you to start a thread on SOS and his drafting success but this one’s about Dow.

 

[jackenny]

Endurance and work rate are his big weaknesses (can’t run out whole games, rarely makes second efforts defensively or is simply already gassed on his first try), can only play in the midfield as an in and under player. Unsure whether it is Carlton not developing his fitness or the kid simply doesn’t work hard enough to make himself fit.

 

[Chism]

Endurance and work rate are his big weaknesses (can’t run out whole games, rarely makes second efforts defensively or is simply already gassed on his first try), can only play in the midfield as an in and under player. Unsure whether it is Carlton not developing his fitness or the kid simply doesn’t work hard enough to make himself fit.

You forgot woeful buy foot to and also lacks game awareness.

Dow is a serious bust sadly and I would take anything for him right now including Twisties!

 

[Drunkcat]

Frankston will take him for free, VFL or back to Bendigo that's about it

 

[King Cripps]

Yeah I didn’t want to get into the nitty gritty but Dow was a miss.

Those two drafts you mentioned had more SOS misses than hits. And Fisher is average at best.

Happy for you to start a thread on SOS and his drafting success but this one’s about Dow.

I never said that SOS was the messiah just pointing out that every recruiter has their misses. Maybe we can point out that P Dow and SPS development under the Teague era was not great. These 2 players were drafted were they were projected to go.

 

[Rich01]

I never said that SOS was the messiah just pointing out that every recruiter has their misses. Maybe we can point out that P Dow and SPS development under the Teague era was not great. These 2 players were drafted were they were projected to go.

It’s in interesting one isn’t it.
Do you blame the recruiter for picking the player or the coaches for not developing them? Seeing they cleaned out both the lead positions in each of these functions you could probably have a bet either way.

 

[Dangerousfield]

As was Weitering,Curnow and McKay in the one draft. Every recruiting manager has their hits and misses

Were they all taken with late picks?

 

[King Cripps]

Were they all taken with late picks?

Yes they were

 

[tigerwill]

Were they all taken with late picks?

Weitering pick 1
Curnow pick 10
McKay pick 12

 

[btdg]

It’s in interesting one isn’t it.
Do you blame the recruiter for picking the player or the coaches for not developing them? Seeing they cleaned out both the lead positions in each of these functions you could probably have a bet either way.

In the case of Dow, it was definitely a development issue.

In 2018, year 1, aged 18, he averaged 14.5 disposals, 3.5 tackles, 7 contested possessions, and hit the scoreboard enough - pretty solid for a mid
In 2019, year 2, aged 19 he averaged 14.2 disposals, 2.5 tackles, 6.3 contested possessions and about the same scoreboard impact - his numbers fell off
2020 (year 3) was the COVID year... more on that to come
In 2021 (year 4) he averaged 14.2 disposals, 2.3 tackles, 6.4 contested possessions and barely had any forward impact

Basically, from Year 1 to Year 4 Dow's disposals and contested ball-winning fell away, his tackling fell off a cliff, and he lost any and all forward impact.

There's always more to the story and in his case, I think it is confidence and poor management. Year 1, he played a balanced but limited midfield role, fitting for an 18 year old.

Year 2: Bolton gave the car keys to the kids, perhaps a bit too early. At the half-way point of the year, Dow was averaging something like 17.5 disposals (8.5 contested), 3.7 tackles - basically exactly the increment you would hope for (and ahead of Cerra and LDU at that point).

Then Carlton panicked, sacked Bolton and appointed Teague, who immediately put Murphy, Curnow and the old blokes back into the middle and consigned Dow to a minor role (splitting time in the forward pocket)... his second half of 2019 was about 11 disposals, 1.5 tackles, and he lost all confidence

Year 3... the plan was for Dow to start the year in the reserves and build up his tank and confidence as a ball-winner... except instead, he travelled to sit in a bubble. He was behind others in the midfield at the time, but had no chance to work on anything at all... just sat around in the hotel room I guess, while a reasonably competitive Carlton midfield played seniors.

That totally crushed any confidence he had - fast forward to year 4 and it was like starting over again... basically a worse version of himself, but with zero confidence from the coaching team and he got shunted all over the place and in and out of the team as Teague tried to save his job.

This year, Voss never really gave him a chance. Confidence was still down, but in the two games he did play his stats were better: 17 disposals, 3 tackles, 8 contested possessions. Not enough to get a senior spot ahead of a pretty stacked midfield but he put up good performances in the reserves.

Longer term, I wouldn't be surprised by Dow going elsewhere, probably taking 2 years and then being something at least - maybe for a 1-2 year run though. He really can't play any position other than midfield, and isn't great defensively, so if he isn't getting teh ball 25+ times per game he's not holding his spot in a good team, and to this point he hasn't hit that benchmark. He's basically all or nothing - as a 26 year-old in his physical peak, with his confidence up he could be useful, but right now he's a decent VFL mid and that's it.

I know you have a weird obsession with SOS but on Dow I think at least he was in the conversation with Cerra/LDU and co. He was a better player in year 1 than year 4, and that speaks to poor development rather than poor drafting imo.

 

[jackenny]

In the case of Dow, it was definitely a development issue.

In 2018, year 1, aged 18, he averaged 14.5 disposals, 3.5 tackles, 7 contested possessions, and hit the scoreboard enough - pretty solid for a mid
In 2019, year 2, aged 19 he averaged 14.2 disposals, 2.5 tackles, 6.3 contested possessions and about the same scoreboard impact - his numbers fell off
2020 (year 3) was the COVID year... more on that to come
In 2021 (year 4) he averaged 14.2 disposals, 2.3 tackles, 6.4 contested possessions and barely had any forward impact

Basically, from Year 1 to Year 4 Dow's disposals and contested ball-winning fell away, his tackling fell off a cliff, and he lost any and all forward impact.

There's always more to the story and in his case, I think it is confidence and poor management. Year 1, he played a balanced but limited midfield role, fitting for an 18 year old.

Year 2: Bolton gave the car keys to the kids, perhaps a bit too early. At the half-way point of the year, Dow was averaging something like 17.5 disposals (8.5 contested), 3.7 tackles - basically exactly the increment you would hope for (and ahead of Cerra and LDU at that point).

Then Carlton panicked, sacked Bolton and appointed Teague, who immediately put Murphy, Curnow and the old blokes back into the middle and consigned Dow to a minor role (splitting time in the forward pocket)... his second half of 2019 was about 11 disposals, 1.5 tackles, and he lost all confidence

Year 3... the plan was for Dow to start the year in the reserves and build up his tank and confidence as a ball-winner... except instead, he travelled to sit in a bubble. He was behind others in the midfield at the time, but had no chance to work on anything at all... just sat around in the hotel room I guess, while a reasonably competitive Carlton midfield played seniors.

That totally crushed any confidence he had - fast forward to year 4 and it was like starting over again... basically a worse version of himself, but with zero confidence from the coaching team and he got shunted all over the place and in and out of the team as Teague tried to save his job.

This year, Voss never really gave him a chance. Confidence was still down, but in the two games he did play his stats were better: 17 disposals, 3 tackles, 8 contested possessions. Not enough to get a senior spot ahead of a pretty stacked midfield but he put up good performances in the reserves.

Longer term, I wouldn't be surprised by Dow going elsewhere, probably taking 2 years and then being something at least - maybe for a 1-2 year run though. He really can't play any position other than midfield, and isn't great defensively, so if he isn't getting teh ball 25+ times per game he's not holding his spot in a good team, and to this point he hasn't hit that benchmark. He's basically all or nothing - as a 26 year-old in his physical peak, with his confidence up he could be useful, but right now he's a decent VFL mid and that's it.

I know you have a weird obsession with SOS but on Dow I think at least he was in the conversation with Cerra/LDU and co. He was a better player in year 1 than year 4, and that speaks to poor development rather than poor drafting imo.

I remember in his draft year thinking how strong in the hips he was; thought he was going to turn into a handy burst player. Issues with his development are really his inability to run out a whole game, imo. Should have been put on a treadmill from day dot and told he needed to become a gut runner if he wanted any chance of making it. He should’ve been aiming for top spot at every pre-season time trial (whether he’d succeed or not, that should’ve been his aim). Bust sadly. His lack of fitness screams ‘unmotivated’. That’s hard to fix for any club.

 

[La Dispute]

I remember in his draft year thinking how strong in the hips he was; thought he was going to turn into a handy burst player. Issues with his development are really his inability to run out a whole game, imo. Should have been put on a treadmill from day dot and told he needed to become a gut runner if he wanted any chance of making it. He should’ve been aiming for top spot at every pre-season time trial (whether he’d succeed or not, that should’ve been his aim). Bust sadly. His lack of fitness screams ‘unmotivated’. That’s hard to fix for any club.

It goes far beyond that.

Being unmotivated also speaks to a lack of resolve, and that probably accounts for why he is still rake thin and why he doesn't attack contests with any intent.

It's easy to get seduced by the potential a dominant junior player, but also easy to forget the TAC and Championships aren't defensive slogfests. Players go out and play their natural game and if that is appealing to recruiters then they're a good chance to get picked up. On paper Dow's combination of pace, perceived hardness and slick hands should have allowed him to transition into a handy player.

Maybe the Blues development should hold some blame, but he's now 5 years into a career - at what point does the penny drop?

 

[jackenny]

It goes far beyond that.

Being unmotivated also speaks to a lack of resolve, and that probably accounts for why he is still rake thin and why he doesn't attack contests with any intent.

It's easy to get seduced by the potential a dominant junior player, but also easy to forget the TAC and Championships aren't defensive slogfests. Players go out and play their natural game and if that is appealing to recruiters then they're a good chance to get picked up. On paper Dow's combination of pace, perceived hardness and slick hands should have allowed him to transition into a handy player.

Maybe the Blues development should hold some blame, but he's now 5 years into a career - at what point does the penny drop?

Pretty much my take, too. The most probable reason the club has been as patient as they have been with Dow’s progression (or lack of) is purely due to him being a high draft pick. I don’t put much responsibility on the club as far as developing him, TBH (maybe they were unable to motivate him but work ethic is really up to the player imo, unless of course the club lied and kept telling him he’s working so hard, etc then that’s on the club for not driving standards and being honest with individual assessments-which does happen, unfortunately).

It’s possible a second club could be the fire up Dow needs to salvage an AFL career, but that’s really up to him, maybe a rookie contract would be a better driver. That’s assuming its Dow not working hard enough (which should be right, being unable to run out games at his age is telling). But if he’s doing everything right, then maybe he’s just a dud who can’t build much muscle or gain any genuine fitness (bit hard to believe, though).

 

[Ambrosia]

As was Weitering,Curnow and McKay in the one draft. Every recruiting manager has their hits and misses

Curnow and McKay are some of the best picks this decade.

That being said SOS’s bust rate with high picks across his time at Carlton and GWS is very high. SPS, Dow, O’Roarke, Pickett, Plowman and Boyd are some of the worst top 5ish picks in recent memory.