Pass mark for each club in 2013

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thebarry111 said:
Do people really think St Kilda are actually a chance of playing finals next year?
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I don't think they will make finals, but they are most certainly a chance.

At the moment there are 5 clubs who I am prepared to put a line through in terms of finals in 2013 - GWS, GC, Melbourne, Port and the Bulldogs.

There are probably 4 or 5 clubs I consider to be certainties at this stage, with the other clubs fighting for the few remaining spots. St Kilda are in that group - can't be written off completely but certainly aren't in the top few sides.

You are right they have lost Goddard and Gram who are both significant losses but there's still a fair bit of quality there.
 

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Jeremias said:
I don't think they will make finals, but they are most certainly a chance.

At the moment there are 5 clubs who I am prepared to put a line through in terms of finals in 2013 - GWS, GC, Melbourne, Port and the Bulldogs.

There are probably 4 or 5 clubs I consider to be certainties at this stage, with the other clubs fighting for the few remaining spots. St Kilda are in that group - can't be written off completely but certainly aren't in the top few sides.

You are right they have lost Goddard and Gram who are both significant losses but there's still a fair bit of quality there.
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Yeah, saw an article the other day and both gram and Goddard were in the clubs top 5 for disposal efficiency (Goddard #1) last year. It's hard to take two prime movers out of the line up and expect improvement. Looking at their list its hard to say who will take their position. A couple of key injuries and they will be in big trouble.
 
Easy one for Port.
No more soft tissue or groin injuries, plus all players being capable of running for four quaters.
That will be the pass mark, the rest will take care of itself. :thumbsu:
 
*PAF said:
Easy one for Port.
No more soft tissue or groin injuries, plus all players being capable of running for four quaters.
That will be the pass mark, the rest will take care of itself. :thumbsu:
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You will have some soft tissue injuries though. A better measure would be number of wins or percentage.
 
redwallis said:
Top 4 - Sydney, Hawthorn, West Coast, Fremantle, Collingwood

Finals - North, Richmond, Essendon, Carlton, Adelaide, Geelong

9th to 12th - Brisbane, Port Adelaide, St Kilda

Avoid bottom 4 - Melbourne, Gold Coast

Avoid spoon - Dogs, GWS
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A good analysis.

I would just shift Freo in to the 2nd group.
 
thebarry111 said:
Yeah, saw an article the other day and both gram and Goddard were in the clubs top 5 for disposal efficiency (Goddard #1) last year. It's hard to take two prime movers out of the line up and expect improvement. Looking at their list its hard to say who will take their position. A couple of key injuries and they will be in big trouble.
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No doubt they are both big losses, but teams adapt. A couple of key injuries to any side will see them struggle, not just St Kilda. Still plenty of top talent in that side that I can't count out completely, and there are plenty of kids there who I expect to improve.

As I said, I don't think they will make the finals but they are in the grouping of teams that are fighting it out for the few spots in the bottom 8. As such it wouldn't be an enormous surprise to me if they did make the finals.
 
redwallis said:
You will have some soft tissue injuries though. A better measure would be number of wins or percentage.
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Some would be a pass mark compared to the last few years.
The thing non Port people don't realise is that whenever we've had a decent side on the park in the last couple of years we went anywhere from well-ish to very well.
Our biggest problem has been injuries to key players (up to 10 best 22 missing at any one time) and a big drop off after player Number 24 or there abouts, meaning we went from being good to being shite too easily.
We have addressed our depth in the off season now we would like to see the fitness results. Once that is done we will look at the rest of it.
 
thebarry111 said:
Do people really think St Kilda are actually a chance of playing finals next year?

They couldn't do it last year, they have lost Goddard and Gram and gained very little which will cover their loss.

With Norths tough draw, it will most likely be the only position up for grabs in the 8. I would think that Essendon, Richmond and Carlton are ahead in the queue to play finals.

Thoughts?
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When you consider that we were the 4th highest scoring team this year, had the 5th best %, finished just 4 wins away from 4th spot at the end of the H&A season (after losing 4 games by 8, 6, 4 and 4 points and another couple that also basically went down to the wire) and that we were extremely competitive in every game we played against the teams that did finish top 4 (despite having some big structural holes at times and being in the first year under Watters and his new game plan), I would suggest that playing finals next year would be a bare minimum aim as far as the club is concerned.

In plenty of those close games that we lost this year we pretty much pissed away our chances with our dreadful conversion alone. From memory we kicked 1 goal 8 in the 3rd quarter of our 8 point loss to Richmond, 1 goal 6 in the 3rd quarter of our 12 point loss to Freo and 1 goal 6 in the last quarter of our close loss at the SCG to Sydney (where it was a 4 point difference inside the last 4 mins), just to give some examples of how easily we could have won some of those games and been on the brink of finishing top 4. We'll obviously need to tighten up our conversion next year, but it's certainly do-able. And we had 3 other losses that were even closer than those ones. And that was in spite of playing several games with no "recognised ruckman" and several with a pretty decimated backline.

Unless we have a really bad run with injuries next year, we're far less likely to have such bad structural holes in 2013, as I outlined in my post at the bottom of this page: http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threa...e-gf-heres-a-formula-that-helps.984783/page-3

We could very very easily be stronger in all of the forward line (where we're likely to have far stronger competition for spots), backline (where we're likely to be more settled) and ruck (having Kosi and Blake rucking for extended periods this year was hardly ideal!) next year, compared to this year, so that is a good start on how we could improve next year on what we did this year. Then of course there is the fact that we will be better used to the way Watters wants us to play than we were this year, when we probably went too far down the attacking route and let our formerly strong defensive aspects slip too much. I think the over-attacking party will be over and more overall defence will be called on, making us harder to beat again.

We have lost Goddard and Gram, but lets not kid ourselves that they were the Goddard and Gram of 2009/2010. Both of them were decidedly meh by their previous standards for most of this year (and last year), so it's not like they're going to be super-hard to replace. (BTW, in the two games Goddard didn't play this year, we smashed 4th placed Essendon by 70 points and then beat Brisbane in Brisbane the following week, when they were playing good footy). What most outside our club don't seem to realise or acknowledge is that as many as 14 of our likely best 22 for next year are aged 26 or under and I'd say that every single one of them has the potential to be better next year than they were this year. Some by a fair bit, as they come into that 22-24 age group, or if they had poor years by their previous standards this year.

While some of the older ones may well drop off a bit on what they did this year and we have to replace Goddard and Gram altogether, there is a hell of a lot of potential improvement in the 14 or so who will be under 27 and some of those over 26 didn't have great years this year either, so they could also very easily have a better year in 2013.

If I asked you who for us had a really good year by their standards, outside of Hayes, Milne and Dempster, you would possibly struggle to answer and that is because not many more did. Yet we were still ultra-competitive in almost every game of the year and our "youth" will be one year more advanced next year and more ready to carry their fair share of the load. They may not have been taken in the top 5 of their draft, but that doesn't mean they don't have a lot of ability, which some of them certainly do.

We were in a somewhat similar place at the end of 2007, having just dropped out of the finals for the first time in a few years, in our first year under Lyon, and Fraser Gehrig had just retired (after kicking 59 goals that year) and with Robert harvey coming up to his final year (as it turned out), yet we turned it around in 2008 and made the top 4, when most apparently expected us to miss the 8 again.

Sydney also dropped out of the 8 in 2009 (by a fair bit more than we did this year), after years in the finals and it would have been pretty unanimous on here that they were done and on the slippery slide, yet they also turned it around and finished 5th the following year.

Given how plenty didn't go particularly well for us on field this year, I don't think it's any sort of wild suggestion that we could move up at least one spot next year and play finals, if we really get our shit together again, especially since it's pretty clear that we are aiming to stay highly competitive and gradually easing the next generation in, (as Sydney have in recent years, for example) rather than going down the traditional "play the kids" route (that teams such as Melbourne have gone down).
 
HappyChappy35 said:
....
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When I look at your post, I can't help but disagree that sides like Brisbane will consider 10-12 a pass, nor will their supporters.

What I do agree with is, Hawthorn must win the Grand Final.
Richmond must make the finals.
Gold Coast must start winning some more games, like 5-7
GWS - be competitive, can't expect too much more early stages.
West Coast/Adelaide/Fremantle/Carlton/Essendon (These sides should be seriously looking at top 4 as being a big pass)
 
CNB1990 said:
Richmond's pass mark is not finals.

Richmond's pass mark is an improvement on 2012 in 2013.

Don't expect radical decisions to be made if we finished 12-10 w/ percentage of 110% and we didn't make finals.
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Yeah that may be true but another year of missing finals will make it hard for Hardwick to feel safe in his job and the media will no doubt be asking questions. Also most Richmond fans I know expect to make the finals next year. I believe you will and could jump to 4th-6th. If you do just miss out as you say then likely you are right but most people expect finals for the tigers next year.
 

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Hawkas1988 said:
Yeah that may be true but another year of missing finals will make it hard for Hardwick to feel safe in his job and the media will no doubt be asking questions. Also most Richmond fans I know expect to make the finals next year. I believe you will and could jump to 4th-6th. If you do just miss out as you say then likely you are right but most people expect finals for the tigers next year.
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If Richmond are realistic then continued improvement is all that can be expected of Hardwick.

The list isn't ready yet.
 
Hard_to_Beat said:
If Richmond are realistic then continued improvement is all that can be expected of Hardwick.

The list isn't ready yet.
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The list is ready for finals. If we just miss out or improve on last years wins then Hardwick will be fine. If we go backwards then he won't be fine.
 
Richmond_Groupie said:
The list is ready for finals. If we just miss out or improve on last years wins then Hardwick will be fine. If we go backwards then he won't be fine.
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Tigers draw looks pretty good. I think they should make the 8, but its a tough gig next season. So many strong sides, bringing about an even competition.
 
Hard_to_Beat said:
If Richmond are realistic then continued improvement is all that can be expected of Hardwick.

The list isn't ready yet.
Click to expand...

See I disagree, I reckon their list is ready.

I remember alot of people saying the same thing about the Hawks in 2007. We had a big rise.

The tigers have Riewoldt and Vickery forward as tall targets with Edwards to help out. Their defense is starting to look solid with Rance and hopefully Grimes (if he stays fit) along with a great recruit in Chaplin.

Their midfield is fast becoming one of the best in the league with Cotchin, Deledio, Foley, Martin, Grigg etc with Maric palming it down and Stephenson in the wings.

Their recruiting has been excellent this season. Chaplin, Knights (who I rate), Lonergan, Petterd and Stephenson (all 3 as depth which they needed).

I can't see why their list isn't ready to take the next step and leap into the finals. Remember they lost plenty of games this season by under 3 or so goals. They showed great signs by smashing the Hawks and the Swans. If they get the GC disaster games out of their game they will be finals bound no doubt IMO.
 
Richmond_Groupie said:
The list is ready for finals. If we just miss out or improve on last years wins then Hardwick will be fine. If we go backwards then he won't be fine.
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Any one of 12-13 teams can make the finals.

When I state "ready", I'm referring to top 4. A guaranteed finals contender.

Richmond aren't there yet.
 
theflea said:
this is the thing. i cant remember a season where there is so much competition for top 8 spots by quality teams.
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Thats the thing.

I can only see Hawthorn, Fremantle and West Coast being top 4 sure. Both WA teams will be hard to beat at home and could win 6 interstate games. Give them 15 wins at the least.

From there right down to about 12 it gets tight. The real close games are going to make the difference between whether you make the finals or not.

Brisbane/port could be improvers enough to unsettle some teams, St Kilda still look strong enough to win games.
 
Sydney, Hawthorn, West Coast, Collingwood, Geelong and to a lesser extent Adelaide are all genuine premiership contenders so will be aiming for top 4 and a premiership for full marks. For at least the first 4 of those sides anything short of a preliminary final is a fail.

Essendon, North, Freo, Richmond, Carlton and St Kilda all should be aiming for the top 8 to be happy with themselves.

Brisbane should aim to be the best of the rest and try to finish above some of the sides listed above for extra marks.

Port, Melbourne and bullddogs just need to finish above GC, GWS and each other. Getting above any other side is bonus marks.

GC and GWS should aim for 5 wins. Bonus marks to finish better than bottom 4.
 
thebarry111 said:
Yeah, saw an article the other day and both gram and Goddard were in the clubs top 5 for disposal efficiency (Goddard #1) last year. It's hard to take two prime movers out of the line up and expect improvement. Looking at their list its hard to say who will take their position. A couple of key injuries and they will be in big trouble.
Click to expand...
I'd be surprised if BJ had the best disposal efficiency for us this year as his kicking wasn't as good as it had been in other years and whenever I looked his DE looked to be pretty average and he missed a lot of targets, but on the other hand, he was also playing the receiving role on the outside of the packs for most of the year, so those playing that role are supposed to have the highest DE, due to there being less pressure and less need to rush their disposals out there.

Similar deal with Gram. He rarely ventured into the packs and was getting most of his possessions well and truly out in the open, so you'd expect him to have a good DE with that being the case. Very often he would just bomb it long to a pack, too, so I guess they count that as an effective disposal.

A couple that could help to cover for their loss right off the bat are Adam Schneider and Farren Ray. Neither of them are as good, but on the other hand they also play that outside wing type role well and both generally use the ball well. Schneider was one that we really missed this year, as he is very smart and generally uses it precisely by foot and hits the scoreboard (whether playing forward or on the wing), but he apparently carried an ankle injury all year and only played a handful of games as a result. Now that we have so many options up forward (Milne, Saad, Milera, Dennis Lane) we can afford to have Schneids playing on the wing for most of the year, if he's fit, where he played some of his best footy in 2009/2010.

Ray was another one who only played for half of this year, despite playing perfectly well when he was played in the seniors, so if need be we can have him back in there each week again, where he is usually good for about 20 possies per game, the same sort of numbers Gram usually gives us. (Ray has had forty-five 20+ possession games since joining us and he can also do run-with roles- he was very stiff to not play more this year, but someone had to make room for the "kids" we wanted to get games into). Terry Milera is another that is tipped to be given more time on the wing next year, after his very promising debut year this year and his kicking is generally outstanding on both feet.

Dylan Roberton is someone else that we picked up in the free agency period who may take Gram's place down back, but the one that most at St Kilda are looking forward to seeing next year, with his 3rd preseason under his belt, is Arryn Siposs, who looked fantastic off HB at the end of the year and whose kicking (and vision) looks to be every bit as good, long and accurate as Goddard's. He looked like a clone of BJ (when BJ has played back) in those late games and can play an identical role back there. He had previously played some very good footy up forward for us, which is where he played in the juniors, but he took to HB like a duck to water late in the year and ought to be cherry ripe to play that role from R1 next year (all things being equal). He may have only just turned 20, but he can seriously play.

We won't necessarily be looking for two to replace two, though, it will be a case of everyone in the team needing to lift their games to compensate for the loss of Goddard and Gram, who, as I said, were not at their best by any means for most of this year.

What you say about injuries is true, though, as it is for most, if not all teams. If we get really bad injuries we will be in strife and will probably finish 11th-14th, but we do look to have better depth in most areas than we had this year, so we look like we're going to be better able to handle any that we do get, especially in the ruck, or key positions, where we were found out with injuries this year.
 
Richmond_Groupie said:
The list is ready for finals. If we just miss out or improve on last years wins then Hardwick will be fine. If we go backwards then he won't be fine.
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Hardwick will be fine but it would still be regarded as a fail to miss out. The bookies have us at $1.90 each way.
2013 will have a number of underachieving teams, but not too many overachieving teams. Almost certainly none in the bottom half of the 8 anyway.
 

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Pass mark for each club in 2013

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