Pick 1 2023 Trade value - What would it take?

[bzparkes]

like a team is gonna waste their time driving up the price of another player just out of spite. most ridiculous thing I've heard in a long time. Another tin-foil conspiracy.

Lol. Clueless as usual.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

History says far more clubs should have traded pick 1, considering the crazy hype every year.

I would want to if it were me. But only for a serious deal (that will definitely come).

Like 90% of the misses have been players under 185cm or have been outside players/struggled with contested footy.

 

[Tugga27]

But what about Slobbo's offer of pick 3, DGB and Brockman from Hawthorn?...

When did Robbo say that?

I'm pretty sure it wasn't him.

 

[amazingjoshy]

Not just JHF. At least 90 percent of clubs with pick 1s in the last 20 years had better offers on the table than the player they got with pick 1.

Very easy to say in hindsight though.

Wait so 18 of the last 20 years there were offers on the table for pick 1 that turned out better than pick 1?

Can you elaborate?

 

[kangaanth]

I think the port pick will be around 14 so let’s go with that and look at how this trade would look in history. 2013 North get Tom Boyd West coast get Josh Kelly and cam McCarthy, 2014 north get paddy mccartin wc get petracca and Jake lever

8

Jake Lever

Age

28

Ht

194cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.6

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

4.9

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.3

3star

MG

242.0

4star

D

9.6

2star

K

6.5

3star

HB

3.1

2star

M

3.9

4star

T

1.3

2star

MG

145.4

3star

D

16.0

4star

K

11.0

4star

HB

5.0

4star

M

6.6

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

189.8

4star

, 2015 north get weitering wc get shache and hipwood, 2016 north get McGrath wc get Taranto and perryman, 2017 north get cam Rayner wc get Brayshaw and Matthew ling 2018 north get Sam Walsh

18

Sam Walsh

Age

24

Ht

184cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.1

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

11.6

5star

M

5.1

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

3.4

5star

No current season stats available

D

26.2

5star

K

15.4

5star

HB

10.8

5star

M

6.0

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

4.8

5star

wc get lukosios and Hately, 2019 north get Rowell wc get Anderson and miles Bergman, 2020 north get ugle hagen wc get thilthorpe and Heath Chapman, 2021 north get Horne Francis wc Finn Callaghan and chesser 2022 north get Cadman wc Sheezel and Elijah hewett. I reckon the 2 picks win 75% of the time.

 

[eaglevision]

I think the port pick will be around 14 so let’s go with that and look at how this trade would look in history. 2013 North get Tom Boyd West coast get Josh Kelly and cam McCarthy, 2014 north get paddy mccartin wc get petracca and Jake lever, 2015 north get weitering wc get shache and hipwood, 2016 north get McGrath wc get Taranto and perryman, 2017 north get cam Rayner wc get Brayshaw and Matthew ling 2018 north get Sam Walsh wc get lukosios and Hately, 2019 north get Rowell wc get Anderson and miles Bergman, 2020 north get ugle hagen wc get thilthorpe and Heath Chapman, 2021 north get Horne Francis wc Finn Callaghan and chesser 2022 north get Cadman wc Sheezel and Elijah hewett. I reckon the 2 picks win 75% of the time.

That’s great. Now do it again knowing that there will be 3 GCS bid match picks, probably a North compo pick, possibly a McCabe bid match pick, almost certainly a Croft bid match pick and that by using 14 as your arbitrary starting point it means that Port is out of the finals in straight sets. Realistically you’re looking at pick 20 at absolute best. It could also be as bad as pick 24. We’re taking Reid. Everyone else can Foxtrot Oscar.

 

[kangaanth]

Massive win for kangas if west coast just take Reidwin win.

 

[kangaanth]

That’s great. Now do it again knowing that there will be 3 GCS bid match picks, probably a North compo pick, possibly a McCabe bid match pick, almost certainly a Croft bid match pick and that by using 14 as your arbitrary starting point it means that Port is out of the finals in straight sets. Realistically you’re looking at pick 20 at absolute best. It could also be as bad as pick 24. We’re taking Reid. Everyone else can Foxtrot Oscar.

Ps if you make it pick 24 like you said the players would include Jack Steele Tim Kelly, Bobby hill, Ben keays, Toby Conway so kangas still 1000 times better off with the 2.

 

[mpal6]

I think that whoever they trade with, it will be done as a live trade. If it was West coast, it could be something like 4, F2 > F1, 38, 54, 57. Suns will want the other team to bring the junk picks to the draft for them.

Yep, GC might prefer to trade 4 away if they get high picks in return during the trade window. Since the number of picks they can take to draft is limited to list spots, high picks will suit them better to collect junk picks or future firsts later during live trades.

4 for Dogs 10 + 17 would set them up for +400 points. Considering the top 4 or 8 draftees are deemed a level above, Dogs could get one of those players and then points match croft bid. 10+17 is a good hand to hold for live trade as even a club like Lions would be keen to palm off our future first to GC and jump on that area of the draft.

 

[Obeanie1]

As a neutral I can say that 2 and 16 for 1 is as fair as it gets. If anything WC should fire back a later pick to even it up.

Onto ignore the troll goes.

 

[Obeanie1]

like a team is gonna waste their time driving up the price of another player just out of spite. most ridiculous thing I've heard in a long time. Another tin-foil conspiracy.

Just stop posting about what happens in WA mate between the two clubs.

You obviously have no idea.

A bit of a trend actually.

 

[Obeanie1]

Massive win for kangas if west coast just take Reidwin win.

Everyone wins the draft.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Stories today say Eagles want 2 x top 10 picks and a future 1st rounder for pick 1.

Doubt any club do that though

 

[sydney_gws]

That’s great. Now do it again knowing that there will be 3 GCS bid match picks, probably a North compo pick, possibly a McCabe bid match pick, almost certainly a Croft bid match pick and that by using 14 as your arbitrary starting point it means that Port is out of the finals in straight sets. Realistically you’re looking at pick 20 at absolute best. It could also be as bad as pick 24. We’re taking Reid. Everyone else can Foxtrot Oscar.

I agree you should take him, unless you get offered at least 4500 points worth. Having said that, I would examine vision of Rayners draft year, be certain he is better than Rayner. I think the best thing about Reid is how he did in the VFL.
West Coast should be climbing the ladder soon.

 

[Barrybran]

Stories today say Eagles want 2 x top 10 picks and a future 1st rounder for pick 1.

Doubt any club do that though

I doubt anyone does it but that is what we should be asking for

 

[sydney_gws]

I doubt anyone does it but that is what we should be asking for

What if hawthorn gets 6,12 from for 4. Then offers 6,12 2024r1?
Or would west coast prefer 3,29 2024r1.
Perhaps neither of those are acceptable to WC.

 

[eaglevision]

I doubt anyone does it but that is what we should be asking for

Melbourne will absolutely do that.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

What if hawthorn gets 6,12 from for 4. Then offers 6,12 2024r1?
Or would west coast prefer 3,29 2024r1.
Perhaps neither of those are acceptable to WC.

1 has to be a top 4 pick i think cos a huge drop off exists after Duursma at pick 4

 

[Barrybran]

What if hawthorn gets 6,12 from for 4. Then offers 6,12 2024r1?
Or would west coast prefer 3,29 2024r1.
Perhaps neither of those are acceptable to WC.

I get the impression that we want to stay at the pointy end of the draft still. Ie. 3 over 6

Melbourne will absolutely do that.

I'm not seeing it yet. Best I've seen is 5, 15 and 24.

 

[eaglevision]

I get the impression that we want to stay at the pointy end of the draft still. Ie. 3 over 6


I'm not seeing it yet. Best I've seen is 5, 15 and 24.

Pick 15 and 24 have similar value to pick 5. If the Dees find anyone with pick 6-10 to trade those with then it’s a done deal if the eagles demand is correct. I hope it’s not.

 

[ronpingwins]

Stories today say Eagles want 2 x top 10 picks and a future 1st rounder for pick 1.

Doubt any club do that though

Where’s this story?

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Think Demons being interested is a bit of Jay Clark prayers then reality

Watson/Caddy is a perfect fit for them at their pick 6 who can play Round 1 in that forward line. Archer Reid at pick 15 will be the KPF project they need and 24 can nab them a ruck like Edwards/Green too

The draft bodes well for them in that they can get the player types they need in forwards + backup ruck

 

[Dom sheed pocket]

Stories today say Eagles want 2 x top 10 picks and a future 1st rounder for pick 1.

Doubt any club do that though

Where is this being reported?

 

[ArdentEagle]

Where is this being reported?

Phil said something similar yesterday from memory but I don't think an official release has been made.

 

[beagles]

If the latest draft projections are correct and GC Academy picks go at 2, 7 & 12 they are going to need more points.

AFL Draft Power Rankings: August 2023

central.rookieme.com

They have 4191 points to cover 4343 deficit. Trading Pick 4 would need to be for 2034+152 points just to break even.

Not many teams have the draft asset's this year and next. Any offer would have to be compelling as they need an additional 2186 points this year before they consider anything for next year.

WC have the draft capital and could offer a package for pick 4.

Maybe 2x2nd, 2x3rd & a F2nd. Quality over quantity