Pick 1 2023 Trade value - What would it take?

[freddy mercury]

Only way I would trade round 1 for what seems a pretty good thing, it'll take at minimum two top 6 picks without anything going the other way.

It'll be pick 1 for two picks in the top 6.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

So for instance pick 3 and 10 not enough?

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This year no.

 

[HairyO]

Only way I would trade round 1 for what seems a pretty good thing, it'll take at minimum two top 6 picks without anything going the other way.

It'll be pick 1 for two picks in the top 6.

If the 3 best WA players were ranked 4th, 8th and 10th you think they trade for that?

Not sure how the team wanting pick 1 manages that though.

 

[WilloTree]

Pick 2 and another pick in the top 6

 

[Jeremias]

So for instance pick 3 and 10 not enough?

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Given how highly Harley Reid seems to be rated, I doubt it.

I’d say the only chance is if West Coast finish bottom and he says he’s not willing to head to Perth.

 

[M Malice]

What the Lions did with their pick 2 in 2016 > traded pick 2 (+31, 51, 60) to the Giants for picks 3 and 16.... which ended up being Hugh McCluggage

6

Hugh Mccluggage

Age

26

Ht

185cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.3

5star

K

11.4

4star

HB

7.9

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.0

5star

CL

2.2

4star

D

19.0

4star

K

12.0

5star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

2.0

4star

D

13.2

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.8

4star

CL

0.6

3star

and Jarrod Berry

7

Jarrod Berry

Age

26

Ht

192cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.4

4star

K

8.5

3star

HB

8.9

5star

M

3.9

4star

T

4.2

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

17.0

4star

K

9.4

4star

HB

7.6

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.1

5star

CL

2.9

4star

D

10.6

3star

K

4.4

2star

HB

6.2

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.8

5star

CL

0.8

3star

, Giants got Tim Taranto

14

Tim Taranto

Age

26

Ht

188cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.3

5star

K

12.8

5star

HB

9.5

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.6

5star

CL

4.1

5star

D

17.0

4star

K

12.0

5star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

3.0

4star

CL

5.5

5star

D

15.6

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

8.0

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

4.0

5star

CL

2.2

4star

.

 

[Giant Pete]

We will have three first round picks most likely this year… possibly three top ten picks. I hope we use two and trade one out for a future pick.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Given how highly Harley Reid seems to be rated, I doubt it.

I’d say the only chance is if West Coast finish bottom and he says he’s not willing to head to Perth.

Even then they are better off taking him his trade value after his first 2 years will be significant.

 

[Giant Strides]

What the Lions did with their pick 2 in 2016 > traded pick 2 (+31, 51, 60) to the Giants for picks 3 and 16.... which ended up being Hugh McCluggage and Jarrod Berry, Giants got Tim Taranto.

I think that would be a lot less than required for #1 pick this year. Even if you removed the picks going back from Brisbane, it's probably not enough.

Remember, that trade worked because GWS had 3 academy kids highly rated, so was aiming to (a) stay ahead of any bid on Setterfield & (b) keep a lot of points to match him and others. The trade was therefore win-win for the two clubs.

A potential trade of #1 this year is significantly different because of the lack of that academy aspect.

For mine, with several highly ranked WA kids, Eagles might consider a trade but would want that 3 first-round picks, with one not too far below #1. Hence, GWS, Melbourne & Norths the clubs in contention, before any FA moves or other trades that might change the landscape.

 

[Off Tap]

Two top 5 picks and late first rounder is the starting point.

I'd take that deal without hesitation.

 

[adammania9]

The most overvalued and overrated commodity in football. North were insane for not taking the Crows’ offer in 2021. Absolutely insane

 

[Nutjob]

The most overvalued and overrated commodity in football. North were insane for not taking the Crows’ offer in 2021. Absolutely insane

Why? Because you don’t rate JHF or because he left? JHF is going to be a superstar and hindsight is a wonderful thing.


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[Pure_Ownage]

The most overvalued and overrated commodity in football. North were insane for not taking the Crows’ offer in 2021. Absolutely insane

Doesnt matter this year. Reid is that good he makes JHF look like an average B grader (and i like JHF).
Pick 1 is worth about 5 r1s this year (ie it wont get traded).

 

[The acurate one]

So the value of the 2023 pick one seems to be a hot topic much more than previous years.

Harley Ried is the talk of the town.......nation.

So lets see some predictions from our astute Big Footy draft watchers.

1. What will it take?
2. Will the pick get traded? Y/ N
3. Would you trade pick 1 for the right offer if it was your call?

I can't see us trading it for anything under 2 top ten picks. We'll have pick 1, pick 2 ( McKay compo) pick 3 PP & Ports pick around 10 ish.
And the AFL world will implode, nothing surer. If the Eagles finish last which I doubt, they like a couple of locals, so will be interesting.

So we trade pick1 for 5 & 8.

Leaves us 2, 3, 5, 8 & 10, only issue as I see it, is we have a lot of rubbish on long contracts we maybe forced to pass on picks 8 & 10.
That wouldn't surprise me, nothing does with my club anymore.

 

[adammania9]

Why? Because you don’t rate JHF or because he left? JHF is going to be a superstar and hindsight is a wonderful thing.


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Play the percentages. There have been a number of bust pick 1s, and a number of average pick 1s. When you get the opportunity to have a crack at 3 top 10 picks instead of 1, you take it. The post earlier in this thread is spot on in that a bottom team needs more than one star. They need a multitude of talented players who can execute several roles. Jase will be a very good player I agree, but history suggests he probably wont be the best player in his draft. No kid is ever a sure thing no matter how good they are as a junior

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

If WC have pick I think they absolutely trade it to the highest bidder. I'll die on the hill that pick 1 is the most ridiculously overrated pick every year. The optics are what seems to stop clubs trading it more often than not because on actual results, if you can trade for two top 10 picks you should do it basically every time.

WC would be spared the optics of Reid being a superstar easier than a Hawks would and can just claim they didn't think he'd stick around. If they finish last, they can turn Harley Reid into a haul that will supercharge the rebuild and they already showed they're prepared to trade out of the top 3 to pick WA players this rebuild. I think if they wanted to trade it they'd get pick 2 or 3 and something between 8 and 10 which would be a massive result

 

[The Nostradamus]

The most overvalued and overrated commodity in football. North were insane for not taking the Crows’ offer in 2021. Absolutely insane

would have had rachele and humprey/tsatas/busslinger (their 2 first rounders) the swap of dees first for our second would have still netted us goater

instead we got wardlaw and ports first this year

not too different a net outcome

wardlaw vs rachele
pick 6 last year (likely humphrey, tsatas, busslinger) vs ports pick likely 12 but in a stronger draft

 

[Jeremias]

Even then they are better off taking him his trade value after his first 2 years will be significant.

Not necessarily.

Pick 1s value is always highest before the pick has been taken.

 

[LFTWNG11]

If your gonna give away star players and picks for cheap, can we have Sam Walsh then and we will exchange players and picks with your mob and West Coast for that deal

2 points:
1. I put forward this suggested deal as an indicator of the value for pick 1/Harley Reid, which I don't think is too far off the 3 first rounders that have been suggested elsewhere.
2. I wouldn't trade Sam Walsh. Cripps on the other hand...

 

[Obeanie1]

I can't see us trading it for anything under 2 top ten picks. We'll have pick 1, pick 2 ( McKay compo) pick 3 PP & Ports pick around 10 ish.
And the AFL world will implode, nothing surer. If the Eagles finish last which I doubt, they like a couple of locals, so will be interesting.

So we trade pick1 for 5 & 8.

Leaves us 2, 3, 5, 8 & 10, only issue as I see it, is we have a lot of rubbish on long contracts we maybe forced to pass on picks 8 & 10.
That wouldn't surprise me, nothing does with my club anymore.

What PP?

Where did that come from?

 

[Obeanie1]

Not necessarily.

Pick 1s value is always highest before the pick has been taken.

Often yes.

But not always.

 

[bzparkes]

Did LoL at getting pick 2 for McKay.

Delusional.

 

[Obeanie1]

Even then they are better off taking him his trade value after his first 2 years will be significant.

The trade value of pick 1 is also significant.

Eagles are two drafts into a rebuild with 8 to 10 players to turn over this draft.

Three bites at the cherry or one?

 

[Obeanie1]

Did LoL at getting pick 2 for McKay.

Delusional.

AFL House have done it before.

 

[Cornelius Roy]

Assuming West Coast get it I think it will be heavily dependent on the forecast strength of the 2024 draft which I have no idea about. West Coast will be bottom 3 2024 and more than likely 2025, if there's high quality, even if not the same, there I can very much see West Coast trading the pick.

I would've loved for it not to have fell this way and taking Harley be the easy option but I think a draft around Curtin, Edwards and Livingstone (ideally with a PP) should end any requirement for West Coast to draft a KP/tall for some time. Between Curtin, Edwards, Livingstone, Bazzo, Barnett, Jamieson, JWilliams, BWilliams you would hope that you could find a CHB/FB/KPF/Ruck to support Oscar and set the spine.

Allows us to take either Tholstrup or best available mid at 19 and trade a late 30s pick for Roberston.

2024/2025 focus on elite midfielders.

To answer your question - I'm assuming WC get it:
1. One top 3 pick, another top 10 pick and some steak knives (Upgrade of future 3rd round to future 2nd)
2. Yes
3. Yes