Pick 1 2023 Trade value - What would it take?

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Maybe I'm wrong but from memory this is how I felt about Chip Frawley as well?
How long ago was that though? The you have the massive contract Buddy went to Sydney on and only returned an end of first round pick.

Absolutely can't see the AFL giving out a start of first round pick for a FA anymore. It gimps all the other clubs at the bottom of the ladder.
 

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How long ago was that though? The you have the massive contract Buddy went to Sydney on and only returned an end of first round pick.

Absolutely can't see the AFL giving out a start of first round pick for a FA anymore. It gimps all the other clubs at the bottom of the ladder.

It won't be start of first round, it'll be a pick after their first pick of his contract earns North band 1 compensation (~$750-800k for 3+ years). They handed out two band 1 compensation picks in 2020.
 
If WC have pick I think they absolutely trade it to the highest bidder. I'll die on the hill that pick 1 is the most ridiculously overrated pick every year. The optics are what seems to stop clubs trading it more often than not because on actual results, if you can trade for two top 10 picks you should do it basically every time.

WC would be spared the optics of Reid being a superstar easier than a Hawks would and can just claim they didn't think he'd stick around. If they finish last, they can turn Harley Reid into a haul that will supercharge the rebuild and they already showed they're prepared to trade out of the top 3 to pick WA players this rebuild. I think if they wanted to trade it they'd get pick 2 or 3 and something between 8 and 10 which would be a massive result
If Reid turns out being the player he is touted to be then the reasoning won’t save them from backlash no matter what they peddle.

I agree pick 1 is overrated in general but everything I have seen from Reid makes me think he is anything but overrated.

I think the hardest part of any rebuild is finding the generational talent to propel a team forward. I won’t claim to be the biggest draft expert at all but not sure I have seen many prospects as good as Reid in my time following footy. This is a year I think no club even West Coast should consider trading away that pick.
 
I've always subscribed to the theory that if you're genuinely rebuilding - i.e. you accept your current list won't remotely cut it and you need some major changes - then it's better to get multiple very good players in rather than one 'superstar'.

Yes the 'star' may generate headlines and engagement.....but you're also putting all your eggs in one basket. If you have multiple critical positional needs, then one player can't cover them all. Also, that player could be a flop, or suffer serious injuries, or have a massive go home factor, or some other issues that stop them being the best for your club.

Trading #1 for (say), two Top 10 picks and another first rounder (or a good player) would make enormous sense. You get 3 chances to draft 3 different types of players. And having three 'very very good' players at your disposal is a sort of insurance against the one 'star' flopping for whatever reason.

As an Essendon supporter...a team with no superstars and a lot of b grade players wont get you far. You need to exceptional talent in a few list spots. Take Daicos out of the Pies, Cameron from Geelong, Petracca from Melbourne, prime Martin from the Tigers and none are exceptional teams IMO. That is the level of talent Reid projects. You need these guy to maximise reward for effort and build faith in systems.
 
If im Eagles id do it for 4 first rounders, 2 2nd rounders and a player like Sam Taylor/Stephen Coniglio
 
If Reid turns out being the player he is touted to be then the reasoning won’t save them from backlash no matter what they peddle.

I agree pick 1 is overrated in general but everything I have seen from Reid makes me think he is anything but overrated.

I think the hardest part of any rebuild is finding the generational talent to propel a team forward. I won’t claim to be the biggest draft expert at all but not sure I have seen many prospects as good as Reid in my time following footy. This is a year I think no club even West Coast should consider trading away that pick.
That generational player can be found from 2-10 almost as much as pick 1 and the more the tickets in the lotto, the higher chance you have of winning it. Appreciate Reid is just that far ahead of everyone else but basically every single year the number 1 pick is shown up by someone drafted after him. Even if you can break it up into two top 10 picks and Reid is better than both of them, I think you'd still have a massive chance that your team is better with the two players you draft than the 1.
 
That generational player can be found from 2-10 almost as much as pick 1 and the more the tickets in the lotto, the higher chance you have of winning it. Appreciate Reid is just that far ahead of everyone else but basically every single year the number 1 pick is shown up by someone drafted after him. Even if you can break it up into two top 10 picks and Reid is better than both of them, I think you'd still have a massive chance that your team is better with the two players you draft than the 1.
I don’t think you can look at it like that when we know the prospects personally. We aren’t just looking at numbers we are looking at actually players.

Also he doesn’t even have to be the best for it to be worth it. Picking him vs the field might be hard but you don’t get the field. He is as close to a sure thing prospect as you can get to be a high level AFL player, that can not be underrated.
 
Eagles would look at a trade - Hawks no chance. Especially if the Eagles think Reid is any chance of being a flight risk.

Curtain from WA is a top 3 talent and a player Eagles would love.

If we had 3 what is the extra needed to drop to 1? If Ports pick is 10 it would get a conversation started. I would prefer 3 & 10 than 3 1st that are mid to late 1sts.
 

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Play the percentages. There have been a number of bust pick 1s, and a number of average pick 1s. When you get the opportunity to have a crack at 3 top 10 picks instead of 1, you take it. The post earlier in this thread is spot on in that a bottom team needs more than one star. They need a multitude of talented players who can execute several roles. Jase will be a very good player I agree, but history suggests he probably wont be the best player in his draft. No kid is ever a sure thing no matter how good they are as a junior

Adelaide weren’t offering North 3 top 10 picks. The only assured top 10 pick was pick 6 at the time of the trade. Again, it’s pretty easy to label a trade ‘insane’ with hindsight on your side. Adelaide could have drastically improved a year earlier and the third pick they were offering us was cancelled out with a pick going back Adelaide’s way.


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How long ago was that though? The you have the massive contract Buddy went to Sydney on and only returned an end of first round pick.

Absolutely can't see the AFL giving out a start of first round pick for a FA anymore. It gimps all the other clubs at the bottom of the ladder.

The Buddy pick was band 1. It all depends on where the club finishes. If Hawthorn had of finished last, they would have got pick 2 for Buddy. As ridiculous as it is, that’s how the system works.


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Reid looks good and different to your typical pick 1, but remember David Swallow who became the first player to win the Larke Medal at the Champs as an underage player and then came 4th in the VFL's Brownlow equivalent in his draft year, was super hyped and had the runs on the board to back it up, but in reality just proved to be a vanilla player, so I wouldn't go thinking that a player going as well as Reid is, is ever a guarantee to go on to become the game's best player.
 
If Reid turns out being the player he is touted to be then the reasoning won’t save them from backlash no matter what they peddle.

I agree pick 1 is overrated in general but everything I have seen from Reid makes me think he is anything but overrated.

I think the hardest part of any rebuild is finding the generational talent to propel a team forward. I won’t claim to be the biggest draft expert at all but not sure I have seen many prospects as good as Reid in my time following footy. This is a year I think no club even West Coast should consider trading away that pick.

Curtin may just tempt them. Just played a game as a mid and was BOG.

Word this they are very keen on two WA kids. Tholstrop or Hall likely the 2nd.
 
As an Essendon supporter...a team with no superstars and a lot of b grade players wont get you far. You need to exceptional talent in a few list spots. Take Daicos out of the Pies, Cameron from Geelong, Petracca from Melbourne, prime Martin from the Tigers and none are exceptional teams IMO. That is the level of talent Reid projects. You need these guy to maximise reward for effort and build faith in systems.
Hard disagree with this.

IMHO the defining characteristic of these sides/eras was that they WEREN’T “one man teams”. Shut someone down and plenty of others are around to bob up.

Sydney shut Cameron out for most of the GF, we still kicked 20 goals.
 
Adelaide weren’t offering North 3 top 10 picks. The only assured top 10 pick was pick 6 at the time of the trade. Again, it’s pretty easy to label a trade ‘insane’ with hindsight on your side. Adelaide could have drastically improved a year earlier and the third pick they were offering us was cancelled out with a pick going back Adelaide’s way.


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That bloody annoys me this 3 first rounders talk. It never happened and would have been pick 6 x2. If we had been keen to trade or had known the intentions we may have been able to secure a deal that was possible to ignore.

As it stands we got the players we wanted with 3 and 4 this year and still have a future first up our sleeve. We did ok. Yes I realise 3 wasn't associated with the Francis deal, but we used that to our advantage as well.
 
Reid looks good and different to your typical pick 1, but remember David Swallow who became the first player to win the Larke Medal at the Champs as an underage player and then came 4th in the VFL's Brownlow equivalent in his draft year, was super hyped and had the runs on the board to back it up, but in reality just proved to be a vanilla player, so I wouldn't go thinking that a player going as well as Reid is, is ever a guarantee to go on to become the game's best player.

An ACL likely didn't help
 
Hard disagree with this.

IMHO the defining characteristic of these sides/eras was that they WEREN’T “one man teams”. Shut someone down and plenty of others are around to bob up.

Sydney shut Cameron out for most of the GF, we still kicked 20 goals.

No team in the competition is a one man team, it's all systems. The more special talents you have that can break other teams systems the more likely you are to win premierships.

Opposition have to put additional resources into stopping those players which allows others to shine. Stars are system makers and breakers. Say Cameron isnt there, Gary Rohan gets a harder match up in the quarter final and you lose that game. Or the entire season goes the way of the years pre 2021. The presence of star players makes others have smaller hills to climb in order to shine. The stars ability to convert one or two goals that no one else could have or break a tackle/kick through the pressure, is the difference between building confidence in a system or not.

Of course having two generational key forwards and Dangerfield matters. Regardless of grand final performances, you're not winning the flag with Wright and Weideman in the stead of Hawkins and Cameron and Parish instead of Dangerfield because you aren't even getting close to the grand final.
 
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If WC have pick I think they absolutely trade it to the highest bidder. I'll die on the hill that pick 1 is the most ridiculously overrated pick every year. The optics are what seems to stop clubs trading it more often than not because on actual results, if you can trade for two top 10 picks you should do it basically every time.

WC would be spared the optics of Reid being a superstar easier than a Hawks would and can just claim they didn't think he'd stick around. If they finish last, they can turn Harley Reid into a haul that will supercharge the rebuild and they already showed they're prepared to trade out of the top 3 to pick WA players this rebuild. I think if they wanted to trade it they'd get pick 2 or 3 and something between 8 and 10 which would be a massive result

They would get a lot more than that for reid. Pick 1 would cost way more than people think this year.

Which is part of the difficulty in doing a realistic deal
 
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