- Aug 21, 2007
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Do you think a forward is more likely to get a good stat line in an 80 point loss or a 112 point win?
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Player Watch Pick #16 (2016) - Todd Marshall
- Thread starter Macca19
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Do you think a forward is more likely to get a good stat line in an 80 point loss or a 112 point win?
Chewy316
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- Jul 1, 2014
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I'm merely comparing the last 4 games. I'm happy to go further back with Marshall though because he's got a bigger sample size and even in some big wins this season, his numbers do not get better outside of the one game this year against North Melbourne, which on the face of it, is an outlier.
- Aug 21, 2007
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Marshall has had a down year but despite that, he's had a far more effective year than Frankie Evans, and Marshall's ceiling is much, much higher.
If you're arguing that a small is more valuable than a tall for pressure reasons, I get it.
Chewy316
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The majority of Evans' games this season prior to this 4 game stretch have been as the sub. So it's pretty difficult to evaluate him given the limited game time he has had. The last 4 games where he's had a proper run at it he has been extremely solid, and statistically he is doing everything that could be asked of him.
And if you're going to select Marshall over him, he needs to bring the same pressure that Evans has done of late given he'd be playing as a hybrid small - and Marshall has never had a consistent patch of play where he has matched the pressure that Evans has provided over the last 4 games.
Marshall's so called ceiling is a hypothetical construct from his 2022 season. Outside of that, 2020, 2021, 2023 and 2024 have looked near identical in production. He turns 26 in 2 months time - so I would suggest he's very close if not at his physical peak. I would suggest 2022 is the outlier and rather expect that future production is going to be similar if not identical to the other seasons.
- Sep 25, 2013
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Huh?
Evans is in good form as a small. We have three talls playing well.
Why are we talking about dropping Evans for Marshall?
Just on selection integrity alone, let alone they’re different players, there’s no need to ‘get games’ into a mid twenties KPF that’s played over a hundred games, we have three KPFs in form in the side already and the team seems to be in some form at the moment.
Todd can build form and fitness in the SANFL and fight for his spot.
Evans is in good form as a small. We have three talls playing well.
Why are we talking about dropping Evans for Marshall?
Just on selection integrity alone, let alone they’re different players, there’s no need to ‘get games’ into a mid twenties KPF that’s played over a hundred games, we have three KPFs in form in the side already and the team seems to be in some form at the moment.
Todd can build form and fitness in the SANFL and fight for his spot.
Facts don't lie
Frankie has less natural talent but at least puts his head over the ball & doesn’t shirk the contest. Shoddy Toddy can head to the 2s until he finds some form.
Evans numbers are inflated by the Sydney game you know that. His total goal tally halves once you swap that game out for the next game
1. No it is not hard to judge Evans on “limited game time”
He’s played at 2 clubs, one which delisted him and his 28 games deep and we’ve seen him in the sanfl, a league perfectly suited to players like him where they often excel.
2. How on earth is Todd ceiling hypothetical based on 2022?
That’s like arguing the earth beneath your feet is hypothetical.
Something cannot be known and down before and be “hypothetical”.
Frank Evans could play 22 games in the best team in the league and he’s not getting near that form.
They can be manipulated and misunderstood
Frankie is an average player but he’s doing all he’s asked of and is playing like he wants his spot.
Marshall knows he gets his spot back without a game in the twos.
One plays more on edge - the other plays because he gets selected based on the past.
Without Marshall and Finlayson we look way better atm.
I’ve always rated him over the cheese. Marshall discussion aside. He gets more involved around scoring and helping us score as opposed to being just a negative player.
He’s having a good run and doesn’t deserve to be dropped for Marshall.
Marshall needs a new game plan over the summer, maybe he should roam more, play like Westy.
Schulzenfest
TheBrownDog
I mean, that's literally what a 'ceiling' is in this context. Except it's not a hypothetical, he actually did do it. Marshall's 'ceiling' isn't necessarily a good reason to pick him over Evans given that Evans is in good form and Marshall isn't, but you can't say it's hypothetical.
Marshall v Evans isn't a like for like comparison anyway. The real question of course is why we spent the last 40 games with a certain other massive dud small forward ahead of Evans on the depth chart.
We look better because our midfield has gone from overrated lazy spud performances to Harlem globetrotters overnight. Zero to do with Evans, or really any forward.
Evans “good run” ?
Take away the 2 goals in the swans 112 point belting and he’s gone 2 goals in the last 7 games.
There’s a massive amount of recency bias regarding Evans “good form” lol.
Also, on the last sentence that’s the role Todd has been playing this year. Roaming up the ground.
I can understand an argument of letting Todd get match fitness to come back (tho I strongly doubt he needs it, fitness has never been an issue for him)
But the idea that we can’t fit him in the side cause Evans is in good form is quite frankly bizarre.
And the idea we let Todd gain form in the sanfl, well I can see the logic in that , but realistically who the **** thinks kfs have ever gained form in the sanfl in our history?
Not Dixon, not finlayson , not even gun kf Mitch really. Last year in the sanfl pre-knee this board nearly had Mitch on the scrap heap. Thilthorpe looks nothing like a good young kf prospect when playing in the sanfl.
As I said earlier, the last afl listed kf to play consistently very good at afl level that I can recall is Tex Walker, and eternity ok.
So we can let Todd find form in the sanfl, but history says that not much is going to happen there.
In any case, Evans is out of contract with 2 games left to go in the reg season. At this stage he’s a near dead cert to get delisted. We can pump a few more games into if we want before then, I don’t see the point.
TeeKray
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I don't think there's another sport in the world where someone with his lack of competitive instincts could be a professional athlete. The AFL is like a sheltered workshop for anyone who is 200cm with a moderate level of athleticism.
- Jul 26, 2020
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Does anyone still read philthy's rants on Marshall or just keep scrollin?
- Apr 27, 2002
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Why would you take them away? He kicked them didn't he.
So strange that when people talk about 'form', they are talking about recent games. Weird, huh.
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Will just keep scrollin' in future.
Todd’s been in the system for 8 years and at 25 you’d expect him to be at his best by now.
With all the expectations when we picked him at 16 in the 2016 draft it hasn’t worked out as well as we hoped.
He’s fallen away drastically since the head knocks and struggles to have any real impact up forward.
The balance of the forward line looks better without him presently.
I can only see him coming in if there is an injury to one of the taller forwards.
Right now I’d play Narkle over Evans if there was going to be change.
No room for Todd.
With all the expectations when we picked him at 16 in the 2016 draft it hasn’t worked out as well as we hoped.
He’s fallen away drastically since the head knocks and struggles to have any real impact up forward.
The balance of the forward line looks better without him presently.
I can only see him coming in if there is an injury to one of the taller forwards.
Right now I’d play Narkle over Evans if there was going to be change.
No room for Todd.
JakeNeadeFan
Norm Smith Medallist
- Nov 25, 2019
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I feel like his one outstanding year was characterised by extraordinary efficiency and goal kicking accuracy which he has not replicated again in his career.
His kicking last year was bad. His kicking this year has been very bad, at least relative to expectations in my opinion.
It's looking increasingly likely that 2022 was an aberration and we have regressed to the mean.
His contest has been consistently inconsistent from the start of his career and that doesn't appear to be changing.
Unless he recaptures his goal kicking form I feel he will be continue to be nothing more than an average at best player
His kicking last year was bad. His kicking this year has been very bad, at least relative to expectations in my opinion.
It's looking increasingly likely that 2022 was an aberration and we have regressed to the mean.
His contest has been consistently inconsistent from the start of his career and that doesn't appear to be changing.
Unless he recaptures his goal kicking form I feel he will be continue to be nothing more than an average at best player
Todd Marshall's kick last year was fine until later in the season when he started passing off shots that he would've normally taken and slotted in 2022.
His goal kicking problem at the end of the year is hidden in his stats, because he wasn't kicking behinds on missed. He just wasn't even attempting them.
Following his concussion against West Coast, he missed the standard 1 game and returned against Essendon. 13 disposals for 1.1. Took 7 marks and had 6 1%ers around the ground.
The next game he got concussed early against North. Missed 2 games for this one. Returned against the Hawthorn with 16 disposals, 10 marks, 3 goal assists and 5.1 goals. Then against the Dogs 10 disposals, 5 marks, 2 goal assists and 2.2 goals. And then against Geelong, 15 disposals, 5 marks, 6 inside 50s, 1 assist and 3.2 goals.
With the exception of round 1, he's return games from the concussions were pretty well his best games for the season.
- Aug 21, 2007
- 32,426
- 104,536
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Aston Villa, San Antonio Spurs
It wasn't just 1 year, he had a good 2023 as well. 36 goals, 15 goal assists, 4th in the league in average marks inside 50.
This year, he is down on form, but his role has also changed, playing higher up the ground to accommodate Georgiades. His disposal and mark numbers haven't changed, but he's having career best years for goal assists and inside 50s.
We've had a rotating, inconsistent cast of key forwards who have all been used in different roles this year and it's hurt chemistry. He's also missing out on the midfield finally clicking over the past few weeks while he's been out. Charlie Dixon who was even more maligned than Marshall on this board is suddenly doing fine. We could still absolutely use a leading target in transition who can reliably deliver the ball inside 50.
This year, he is down on form, but his role has also changed, playing higher up the ground to accommodate Georgiades. His disposal and mark numbers haven't changed, but he's having career best years for goal assists and inside 50s.
We've had a rotating, inconsistent cast of key forwards who have all been used in different roles this year and it's hurt chemistry. He's also missing out on the midfield finally clicking over the past few weeks while he's been out. Charlie Dixon who was even more maligned than Marshall on this board is suddenly doing fine. We could still absolutely use a leading target in transition who can reliably deliver the ball inside 50.
From a structure perspective, we have 3 talls in the forward line already that are significantly outperforming Todd.
Trying to shoehorn Marshall into that forward line is a recipe for disaster for the above structure reasons.
Evans is the best we have for that role when you consider who is already playing. He's not set the world on fire, and ideally he wouldn't be best 22 - but it is what it is.
The comparisons only come when people try to suggest that Todd can play the same role as Evans, which is absurd for so many different reasons.
He had a hip injury, which he played through but affected his kicking action and resulted in the inaccuracy. But what's now happened is that the adjustments he made to his kicking action at the time are now part of his regular action.
