Player X or Player Y (part 2)

[major tom]

I definitley think Hodge and Burgoyne and also maybe Rioli will get the tags for haw this year.

Question

D H.Shaw and Kelly
M Bartel and Gibbs

OR

D Gram and Enright
M Goodes Goddard

This question is about the value of the DP V getting your best pick high premiums. I am keen on Bartel and Gibbs, but by changing them to Goodes (forward/mid) and Goddard (back/mid), I can upgrade players like H Shaw and Kelly and get the benefit of DP.

 

[HolyRioli]

cheers for the help previously
one thing i was wondering
now that hodge is back in the middle and lewis is in great shape
and burgoyne is in the hakws side now...
will mitchell get the tag anymore ?
especially if he is playing off half back

I doubt it, at least initially. If you let Hodge and Burgoyne roam free, then you are going to get cut up. Very quickly

Don't get me wrong, Mitch without an opponant will hurt you, but if he is playing off half-back to middle, it won't be quite to the same extent.

I'd be surprised if he Rioli gets a tag. Tagging three players is unrealistic, as Geelong have shown for the last 3 years. Put a player head-to-head with them, but not in a shutdown role. There are only a handful of players who can shut someone out of the game while getting enough of the footy themselves (Kirk, Ling, K Cornes, Rawlings, Sewell), and none of them play in the same team.

Can't tag everyone

 

[sdsdsdsd]

i like the looks of jolly
durable ruck option
has had a ripper pre season
and now he is in a team that plays high possession football
the move from sydney means less hit outs but i think all the other points means more upside

and as for kruezer i think he could benefit in the forward line
should be served the ball on a silver platter from the blues mids

in summary id go jolly kruezer
but if you want to actually choose one of the two options then go jolly mac
i think those two together will score more than sandi kruez

cheers for the help previously
one thing i was wondering
now that hodge is back in the middle and lewis is in great shape
and burgoyne is in the hakws side now...
will mitchell get the tag anymore ?
especially if he is playing off half back

Thnx for the response, appreciate it

Fair point u make on Mitchell, never saw it like that. However as u say with the addition of Burgoyne and many of their midfielders getting healthy again (hodge, ellis, lewis, young, bateman), will that mean that Mitchell and Sewell will get less of the ball, compared to last year???

 

[major tom]

Question

D H.Shaw and Kelly
M Bartel and Gibbs

OR

D Gram and Enright
M Goodes Goddard

I am keen on Bartel and Gibbs, but by changing them to Goodes (forward/mid) and Goddard (back/mid), I can upgrade players like H Shaw and Kelly and get the benefit of DP.

Waddya reckon

 

[XPISTO]

Probably the second option... Not convinced about J Kelly getting big numbers, however if you slot Adcock in there instead of Kelly then option number 1 is definitely the best choice!

Is having Kennelly, Ladson and Waters in the one backline too risky?

 

[Dr Awkward]

Probably the second option... Not convinced about J Kelly getting big numbers, however if you slot Adcock in there instead of Kelly then option number 1 is definitely the best choice!

Is having Kennelly, Ladson and Waters in the one backline too risky?

As long as they are all playing round 1 then I think thats fine, they will all make cash if fit and there are'nt any rookies to put starting in your backline at this stage.

 

[swans4eva]

Question

D H.Shaw and Kelly
M Bartel and Gibbs

OR

D Gram and Enright
M Goodes Goddard

I am keen on Bartel and Gibbs, but by changing them to Goodes (forward/mid) and Goddard (back/mid), I can upgrade players like H Shaw and Kelly and get the benefit of DP.

Waddya reckon

Let's break this up a bit

Option A

Heath Shaw- Big Question marks, injury and role a concern
Swans4eva Prediction- 18 games, Avg- 83
James Kelly- Has been overshawdowed by Geelong's star-studded line-up... If someone develops, job security also could be an issue. Will only do just enough to be a keeper as I can't really see him getting the oppurtunity to be part of the midfield rotation.
Swans4eva Prediction- 20 games, Avg- 79
Bartel- Mr Consistent... Will give you 110 week in week out.
Swans4eva Prediction- 22 games, Avg- 112
Gibbs- Just such a great player, getting tagged could be an issue in the first few rounds with Judd out but should consolidate last years average and improve it.
Swans4eva Prediction- 21 games, Avg- 111

Total for option A- 385

Option B

Gram- I love the look of this guy, running in the midfield getting no attention, 2010 will be another big year for Gram.
Swans4eva Prediction- 22 games, Avg- 97
Enright-Another consistent player who will never give you a bad game and is extremely durable.
Swans4eva Prediction- 22 games, Avg- 89
Goodes-Goodesy looks set for another massive year resuming a role at centre half-forward which should increase his scoring
Durability may be a concern, but he has shown in the past he can break a tag easily so no issue there
Swans4eva Prediciton- 19 games, Avg- 106
Goddard-Showed us all last year how dangerous he can be and I can't see any reason why he won't be dangerous again this year
Swans4eva Prediction- 22 games, Avg- 107

Option B total- 399

In conclusion, Option B is safer and will net you more points.

Now my turn
Suban +100k or McPhee (this is for 5th back)

 

[jjcs]

Goodes-Goodesy looks set for another massive year resuming a role at centre half-forward which should increase his scoring
Durability may be a concern, but he has shown in the past he can break a tag easily so no issue there
Swans4eva Prediciton- 19 games, Avg- 106

I'm afraid I'm going to have to pull you up on this...

The man has played all but 6 games in his career, including a stretch of 204 in a row.

 

[Cosmo Kramer]

Let's break this up a bit

Now my turn
Suban +100k or McPhee (this is for 5th back)

I know Subans last 8 weeks were fairly impressive DT wise, however I would go McPhee because he is by all reports going to spend time in a midfield where he probably won't get a hard tag and we all remember 07 where he averaged 89. Obviously with McPhee you need to watch the NAB cup and see how he is used, you could also look at Harbrow for the same price or Birchall (if for some reason you wanted a guy who is a little undervalued IMO but will hold his value for sure). The argument for Suban could be made if you wanted a guy who you thought could average 70 by seasons ends and wanted to make some cash but personally with the plethora of cheap/mid priced backs I would look at McPhee.

Now here is one

Didak vs O'Keefe vs Davis vs Sylvia

 

[swans4eva]

I'm afraid I'm going to have to pull you up on this...

The man has played all but 6 games in his career, including a stretch of 204 in a row.

True, I didn't mean durability in a form where he will miss games, rather I meant durability in that he will play games when he is not 100% like he has done in the past and this could slightly affect his scores.
Wouldn't be surprised at all, If he gets rested for a game towards the end of the season if the swans are on track for the finals. Especially seeing as he will be playing a demanding role at CHF this season.

 

[Piikeyyy]

True, I didn't mean durability in a form where he will miss games, rather I meant durability in that he will play games when he is not 100% like he has done in the past and this could slightly affect his scores.
Wouldn't be surprised at all, If he gets rested for a game towards the end of the season if the swans are on track for the finals. Especially seeing as he will be playing a demanding role at CHF this season.

So you pencilled him in for 19 games

 

[swans4eva]

So you pencilled him in for 19 games

Haha I was going to change it after I realized I made a mistake but he'd quote it so I thought everyone would go ape at me for changing it
I'd say he'll play 20-22 games

 

[Piikeyyy]

Haha

 

[longytap]

H Shaw, Ladson, Medhurst/Ziebell

vs

Adcock, Kennelly, Polkinghorne

 

[Cosmo Kramer]

H Shaw, Ladson, Medhurst/Ziebell

vs

Adcock, Kennelly, Polkinghorne

The first option by the length of the straight.

Anyone got any thoughts on

Didak vs Davis vs O'Keefe vs Sylvia??????????

 

[JDWCE]

I doubt it, at least initially. If you let Hodge and Burgoyne roam free, then you are going to get cut up. Very quickly

Don't get me wrong, Mitch without an opponant will hurt you, but if he is playing off half-back to middle, it won't be quite to the same extent.

thats what im saying, i dont think mitchell will get the tag anymore with hodge at full strength and a very damaging burgoyne in the mix

so would you think he would be a good pick up if he plays on the half back line ? Should get plenty of cheap marks and possies right ?

Thnx for the response, appreciate it

Fair point u make on Mitchell, never saw it like that. However as u say with the addition of Burgoyne and many of their midfielders getting healthy again (hodge, ellis, lewis, young, bateman), will that mean that Mitchell and Sewell will get less of the ball, compared to last year???

never thought of it that way
but then if he is playing in the midfield and gets put on the half back line every now and then, will this up his marks and possessions ?
Seems to have done wonders to his DT scoring in the past when he has played there

 

[longytap]

The first option by the length of the straight.

Anyone got any thoughts on

Didak vs Davis vs O'Keefe vs Sylvia??????????

O'keefe due to his durability and consistency. then Dids,Davis,Sylvia in that order, the last 2 can be inconsistent at times.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

I would argue that Sylvia has the greatest upside of the 4.

 

[Cosmo Kramer]

At the moment I have Didak (I think that O'keefe has reached his peak, and that 173 does make his stats look prettier than they actually are), i'm starting to lean towards Sylvia but consistency and inability to ever play 20 games has me concerned.

 

[swans4eva]

I just personally can't go past Goodesy... Permanent Role at CHF, proven scorer, showing no signs of slowing down.
I've got Roo, Goodes, Pav and Buddy in the same team so a lot of marks

 

[omit]

Sylvia spent a day with a 93 year old last week. his days of getting suspended are over

 

[Lakey91]

Two ways of viewing Selwood/ROK/Etc's massive scores:

1) The massive scores have inflated their starting price as this score has increased their average above what they scored for the rest of the year

2) This big score is an indication of their ceiling and potential upside.

Personally, I dont think point (1) holds much validity as it hardly overprices them. Ryan Okeefe averaged 96.8 and is thus priced at $425,400. Take out the 173, and he still averages 93.2 - a decrease of just 3.6 or an "overpricement" of just $15,818 (MN = ~4394 so 4394 x 3.6 = 15,800 bucks). 16 Grand isnt really that much in the world of DT, and should hardly be a massive consideration IMO, especially when there are so many other factors to consider (Role, durability, consistency, upside, team they play for, draw, etc).

Furthermore, he DID score the 173, so theres no reason why it should be included in his price - it shows his potential.

 

[Chowder]

Couple of quick questions.

2 of Pendlebury, Mitchell and Selwood and why.

And Masten or Ziebell in the midfield given that Z's dp allows me to swap him with Goodes, RoK, Dangerfield if required.

Cheers guys

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Sylvia spent a day with a 93 year old last week. his days of getting suspended are over

I hardly see the correlation between that and being suspended

Barry Hall is very charming off the field with old ladies

There's a thing called white line fever and some players just cant help themselves.

At the moment I have Didak (I think that O'keefe has reached his peak, and that 173 does make his stats look prettier than they actually are), i'm starting to lean towards Sylvia but consistency and inability to ever play 20 games has me concerned.

Didak = Sylvia

for durability have a look at there last 3 seasons, they are pretty much the same and probably favoring Sylvia, who has upside to his average.

I just personally can't go past Goodesy... Permanent Role at CHF, proven scorer, showing no signs of slowing down.
I've got Roo, Goodes, Pav and Buddy in the same team so a lot of marks

Alot of KPF's here. I thought a semi golden rule was to not select too many KPF's as they tend to fluctuate in price, and pick versatile players who play midfield as well as forward, due to the game style change, favoring these players. Although i cant argue with to many of those picks, as 2 are defiantly under-priced. However i dont really like Goodes, i can only see the time up forward limiting his scoring ability, even though he did alright with it last year.

He might be a player i have to look at more but he seems fully priced and also i reckon we missed the boat last year.

Couple of quick questions.

2 of Pendlebury, Mitchell and Selwood and why.

And Masten or Ziebell in the midfield given that Z's dp allows me to swap him with Goodes, RoK, Dangerfield if required.

Cheers guys

I like where your going with these 3 players.

Im not to sure if this is CHAD.

 

[Cosmo Kramer]

Couple of quick questions.

2 of Pendlebury, Mitchell and Selwood and why.

And Masten or Ziebell in the midfield given that Z's dp allows me to swap him with Goodes, RoK, Dangerfield if required.

Cheers guys

I would say Selwood and Pendlebury. They both have the ability to average over 105 this year. Whereas Mitchell played a blinder of a season last year when our entire team was down on form, this year there will be more players to take points off him, the biggest thing with Mitchell this year is that he will be spending alot more time foward which I think could limit his scoring to 90-95, look at his history (he isn't a goal kicker).


LeCras vs McPhee