NSWCROW
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No chance lol
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Polls Thread Mk III
- Thread starter Caesar
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No chance lol
NewsCorp held out on 51-49 for a few weeks hoping for it to tighten towards 50-50. When that didn't happen, a quick revision now to 51.5-48.5, which allows them to save face when the result will prob be 52.5-47.5 or 52-48, thereby still being within 1% correct on the Labor vote.
If that Newspoll is replicated tomorrow, ALP supporters (and for this election at least, myself) will be pretty happy by the end of the night.
The final 2013 and 2016 Newspoll polls were basically inch-perfect, but on the other hand Newspoll have changed their methodology since 2016 and there is an unusual amount of herding.
I do think the correct figure is around what has been given nonetheless, so it shouldn't be a big deal.
EDIT: I do want to note that the idea that Newspolls are deliberately biased (rather than merely wrong) is silly, particularly at federal level where more of the population has an interest in the election outcome.
The final 2013 and 2016 Newspoll polls were basically inch-perfect, but on the other hand Newspoll have changed their methodology since 2016 and there is an unusual amount of herding.
I do think the correct figure is around what has been given nonetheless, so it shouldn't be a big deal.
EDIT: I do want to note that the idea that Newspolls are deliberately biased (rather than merely wrong) is silly, particularly at federal level where more of the population has an interest in the election outcome.
54-46 rings true.
Interestingly, the final 2016 Newspoll had a sample size of 4135.
So only 3/4 as many this time. Wonder why?
I don't think it makes too much difference beyond 1500 or so TBH. The Newspoll before the final 2016 Newspoll was 51 LNP - 49 ALP, which was still close to correct.
Wouldn't surprise me if the final election figures were very close to 51.5 TBH.
Kevin Bonham has commented on this, suspicious of poll herding, he says that with random polling statistically around 1/3 should be outside the margin of error, but there’s been something like 17 consecutive polls within one percent of each other.
The final Newspoll one was inch-perfect in 2013 and 2016, though.
That said, its methodology has changed this time due to ON/UAP preferences. Could be right, but maybe not.
Rigged, wait and see.
swansfan51
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Why do people think Newspoll is rigged? Ridiculous claim, it is conducted by YouGov, their staff take their jobs very seriously, and they've historically been extremely accurate
NSWCROW
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From pollbludger comments -
That is the 200th consecutive poll in Bludgertrack that Labor has been ahead of the Coalition.
There was a Newspoll on 11/9/16 that was 50-50
Then an Essential on 12/9/16 that had Labor ahead 51-49, the first of 200 with Labor ahead.
Since the 2016 election there have been two 50-50s early on, and a total of 209 polls with Labor ahead.
That is the 200th consecutive poll in Bludgertrack that Labor has been ahead of the Coalition.
There was a Newspoll on 11/9/16 that was 50-50
Then an Essential on 12/9/16 that had Labor ahead 51-49, the first of 200 with Labor ahead.
Since the 2016 election there have been two 50-50s early on, and a total of 209 polls with Labor ahead.
NSWCROW
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No SA
Labor are obviously a number percentage points ahead, anything to do with Murdoch media is suspect.
I'm doing my best.
In the electorate Dawson held by the obese George Christensen who is not only extremely corrupt but also absent mostly of
In the electorate Dawson held by the obese George Christensen who is not only extremely corrupt but also absent mostly of
Forward Press
Hall of Famer
If those numbers hold Bill Shorten should start preparing his victory speech. No LNP majority in the three biggest States, WA scrutineers need not bother by the time the count swings around to us.
NSWCROW
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Again , from the PB comments -
The last Newspoll before Turnbull’s ousting was:
37% Coalition (down two), 35% Labor (down one), 10% Greens (steady) and 9% One Nation (up two).”
Morrison is worse! Oh, how do you feel, Malcolm?
The last Newspoll before Turnbull’s ousting was:
37% Coalition (down two), 35% Labor (down one), 10% Greens (steady) and 9% One Nation (up two).”
Morrison is worse! Oh, how do you feel, Malcolm?
Ned_Flanders
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Awesome, that means the libs are the Collingwood of Aussie politics
Looking forward to seeing ScoMo hugging a crying Treloar after the siren
Crankyhawk
Hall of Famer
Recalculate preference flows.
Polls are dodgy af
They wouldn't have recalculated preference flows on that poll. The preference flows were dodgy to begin with, but they wouldn't have altered their methodology.
The nsw 2pp is a bit if a happy shock, they were shaping up to get an LNP swing. Doesn't bode well for Abbott.
The swing in Vic is less than I was hoping to see tho. Hopefully they are as wrong there as they were at the state election.
I want blood.
The swing in Vic is less than I was hoping to see tho. Hopefully they are as wrong there as they were at the state election.
I want blood.
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I was looking at the seat by seat betting odds (sportsbet) to use them to estimate the expected number of seats won (ignoring that this is a highly questionable method).
On the national level it give ALP - 80 .1, LNP - 61.4, GRN - 2.9, Other 6.6 (nothing unexpected).
The most interest thing was the expected results for Queensland and Victoria.
In Queensland, the LNP is expected to win 4.9 seats than the ALP (LNP 16.5, ALP 11.7, Other 1.4, GRN 0.4).
For Victoria, ALP is expected to win by 11.7 seats (ALP 23.3, LNP 11.7, GRN 2.3, Other 0.7).
Based on the state 2PP polls, that would suggest the Queensland electoral map is biased to the LNP, and the Victorian map is biased towards the ALP.
On the national level it give ALP - 80 .1, LNP - 61.4, GRN - 2.9, Other 6.6 (nothing unexpected).
The most interest thing was the expected results for Queensland and Victoria.
In Queensland, the LNP is expected to win 4.9 seats than the ALP (LNP 16.5, ALP 11.7, Other 1.4, GRN 0.4).
For Victoria, ALP is expected to win by 11.7 seats (ALP 23.3, LNP 11.7, GRN 2.3, Other 0.7).
Based on the state 2PP polls, that would suggest the Queensland electoral map is biased to the LNP, and the Victorian map is biased towards the ALP.
[QUOTE="Hornberger, post: 60917660, member: 121641"
Based on the state 2PP polls, that would suggest the Queensland electoral map is biased to the LNP, and the Victorian map is biased towards the ALP.[/QUOTE]
Maybe correct for qld, but not vic. I think the margin of 2pp is meant to be between 4-8% in favour of labour? You'd expect them to win twice as many seats on that sort of margin.
Based on the state 2PP polls, that would suggest the Queensland electoral map is biased to the LNP, and the Victorian map is biased towards the ALP.[/QUOTE]
Maybe correct for qld, but not vic. I think the margin of 2pp is meant to be between 4-8% in favour of labour? You'd expect them to win twice as many seats on that sort of margin.
