Vic Predict the outcome of the 2018 Victorian State Election

[Bombermania]

Excellent Summary of Vic Election

https://insidestory.org.au/final-reckoning-nine-views-of-victorias-election/

Very nice article, the only thing I disagreed with was the articles assessment that the Liberals were safe in their three inner city heartland seats, I can see them losing Higgins, although the loss of Windsor might be enough to save O'Dwyer. I also think Flinders and Menzies could be close meanwhile both Kooyong and Goldstein look like they could become marginal Liberal seats.

 

[TimmeT]

Very nice article, the only thing I disagreed with was the articles assessment that the Liberals were safe in their three inner city heartland seats, I can see them losing Higgins, although the loss of Windsor might be enough to save O'Dwyer. I also think Flinders and Menzies could be close meanwhile both Kooyong and Goldstein look like they could become marginal Liberal seats.

You reckon the Liberals will lose those seats when they all have 20% + margins in them? They won Hawthorn by a few hundred votes if that but the Federal electorate of that area being Kooyong also takes in Kew which still has a 5% margin in it. Will be a Labor positive swing but not enough to change. Same goes for Menzies which covers two seats won by Liberals with a decent margin.

Goldstein not only has Caulfield in it but also has Sandringham and Brighton which were still won by the libs. Furthermore the local member appeals to that electorate. Will remain a Liberal seat even with the impending swing. Would seriously take a real hate of the Liberals to lose.

Of all those areas Flinders will be the one which is the most likely to potentially change hands.

 

[Bombermania]

You reckon the Liberals will lose those seats when they all have 20% + margins in them? They won Hawthorn by a few hundred votes if that but the Federal electorate of that area being Kooyong also takes in Kew which still has a 5% margin in it. Will be a Labor positive swing but not enough to change. Same goes for Menzies which covers two seats won by Liberals with a decent margin.

Goldstein not only has Caulfield in it but also has Sandringham and Brighton which were still won by the libs. Furthermore the local member appeals to that electorate. Will remain a Liberal seat even with the impending swing. Would seriously take a real hate of the Liberals to lose.

Of all those areas Flinders will be the one which is the most likely to potentially change hands.

Not sure where you get 20% margins from.

Higgins has a margin of about 7.6% against the Greens and about 10% against the ALP, and won last time with a primary vote of 52%. The last redistribution removed Windsor, and pushed the seat further into Murrumbeena and Hughesdale, not strong areas for the Liberals. The Liberals only won the seat of Malvern by 56% TPP, if O'Dwyer manages a similar result then she could be in trouble.

Goldstein has a 12.7% margin, and it doesn't contain the suburb of Caulfield, but does contain the southern part of that state seat. I think Tim Wilson will hold it but he could find himself in a marginal seat.

Kooyong has a 12.8% margin and should be a Liberal hold.

Flinders has a 7% margin and looks like being close.

Menzies has a 7.8% margin, on paper should be held, but the redistribution added large parts of Eltham to the seat, and then there is the local MP in Kevin Andrews, a leading member of the hard right and increasingly seen as having been in parliament for too long, a bit like Robert Clark in Box Hill, a similar long term socially conservative MP.

I doubt anything beyond 8% will change but in the current political climate, the Liberals will have done well to hold Higgins, Flinders and Menzies.

 

[Pessimistic]

You reckon the Liberals will lose those seats when they all have 20% + margins in them? They won Hawthorn by a few hundred votes if that but the Federal electorate of that area being Kooyong also takes in Kew which still has a 5% margin in it. Will be a Labor positive swing but not enough to change. Same goes for Menzies which covers two seats won by Liberals with a decent margin.

Goldstein not only has Caulfield in it but also has Sandringham and Brighton which were still won by the libs. Furthermore the local member appeals to that electorate. Will remain a Liberal seat even with the impending swing. Would seriously take a real hate of the Liberals to lose.

Of all those areas Flinders will be the one which is the most likely to potentially change hands.

Poshest booths swing the most. It was a liberal heartland protest vote. And they secretly like Andrews. The protest won’t be as big in federal election cos they already sent the message and surprised themselves a bit too much with the swing

 

[TimmeT]

Not sure where you get 20% margins from.

Higgins has a margin of about 7.6% against the Greens and about 10% against the ALP, and won last time with a primary vote of 52%. The last redistribution removed Windsor, and pushed the seat further into Murrumbeena and Hughesdale, not strong areas for the Liberals. The Liberals only won the seat of Malvern by 56% TPP, if O'Dwyer manages a similar result then she could be in trouble.

Goldstein has a 12.7% margin, and it doesn't contain the suburb of Caulfield, but does contain the southern part of that state seat. I think Tim Wilson will hold it but he could find himself in a marginal seat.

Kooyong has a 12.8% margin and should be a Liberal hold.

Flinders has a 7% margin and looks like being close.

Menzies has a 7.8% margin, on paper should be held, but the redistribution added large parts of Eltham to the seat, and then there is the local MP in Kevin Andrews, a leading member of the hard right and increasingly seen as having been in parliament for too long, a bit like Robert Clark in Box Hill, a similar long term socially conservative MP.

I doubt anything beyond 8% will change but in the current political climate, the Liberals will have done well to hold Higgins, Flinders and Menzies.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Kooyong#Election_results

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Goldstein - South Caulfield

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Goldstein#Election_results

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Menzies

Don't know where you get your margins from especially when Menzies was outright win for Kevin Andrews.

 

[Bombermania]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Kooyong#Election_results

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Goldstein - South Caulfield

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Goldstein#Election_results

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Menzies

Don't know where you get your margins from especially when Menzies was outright win for Kevin Andrews.

There has been a redistribution since the last election and the margins are based on the new boundaries.

 

[Pessimistic]

It's just more two faced hypocrisy from the Greens. She is in denial about the terrible state of her own party's backyard. That was one of the reasons why she lost her seat to another female candidate.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/v...d/news-story/8ce77497e7d9668471b45e509304909b

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...abusive-internal-culture-20180410-p4z8qb.html

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11...footscray-and-sandringham-candidates/10494022

And the Greens hypocrisy goes beyond internal culture to policy in action or should that be inaction. They run around claiming to be the party that's strongest on wanting climate change action yet sided with Abbott and the AGW denialists in the LNP to kill off the ETS. The same can be said about public transport where they opposed the leasing of the Port of Melbourne which is significantly funding the level crossing removals and infrastructure upgrades (eg: signalling, HCTs, etc) on Melbourne's rail system. Continually getting on their high moral horse talking about progressive issues is cheap when they have a history of going missing inside and outside of parliament when it counts most.

The Libs solved the leaky boats people smuggling so well it’s no longer a big vote winner for them. The greens could never actually contribute to solving the climate issue or they’d have nothing to run on

 

[Jascave]

If there’s one thing I give the Coalition credit for, at least they were able to stay unified for the duration of the election campaign. Not like 1987 where the Coalition under John Howard who were in Opposition at the time completely split apart during the ‘Joh for PM’ debacle, which was a huge factor in them losing the 1987 federal election to Bob Hawke, giving Labor its third term in office.


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[Baltimore Jack]

If there’s one thing I give the Coalition credit for, at least they were able to stay unified for the duration of the election campaign. Not like 1987 where the Coalition under John Howard who were in Opposition at the time completely split apart during the ‘Joh for PM’ debacle, which was a huge factor in them losing the 1987 federal election to Bob Hawke, giving Labor its third term in office.


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The Political arm was at war with the Administrative arm
Leaked emails, back-grounding journo's....all through the election campaign

Were you on holidays at the time?

 

[Jiska]

I've voted Green federally and across 2 different states for about the last 7 years.

I was already swinging towards Labor based purely on local issues - I think Lidia Thorpe has been invisible as a local member. If we had the NZ model, and if we'd adopted the recommendations of the Uluru Statement, she'd be a phenomenal Indigenous representative. But as much as I appreciate her advocacy for Indigenous Victorians, it never should've been at the expense of her electorate. She should've aimed to represent both, Northcote is progressive enough that people would've been happy for her to split her time between representing Northcote and representing Indigenous Victorians. She never even tried it though. And then she went on the local forum circuit claiming that everyone who raised local issues with her got a discussion or an email... with people laughing in her face, cos they knew it was patently untrue.

And that was all before the last few weeks. The Greens - across Victoria and NSW - have been exposed as a party who've allowed hypocrites and shitheads to infiltrate their party, and they need to get their shit together before they deserve to have people voting for them again. The way they've played so-called "dirty politics" then whinged when the ALP returns fire is quite pathetic.

On top of all that, people like me in Victoria are lucky that we have a Premier who is already the most socially progressive in Australia. Aside from issues of environment - which admittedly is important to me - we don't actually gain as much from the presence of the Greens in Victoria as much as other states and territories do.

So with all that said - I know I'm not alone in thinking this way, and I'm predicting something of a bloodbath tomorrow for the Greens. I think they'll lose Prahan. Despite the Libs running dead, I think Maltzahn is a piece of shit who can't win Richmond. I think there's a chance they drop Melbourne. I think there's some possibility that they lose Northcote, despite the ALP committing exactly nothing to the electorate. I think the best case scenario for the Greens tomorrow is that they retain Melbourne & Northcote, and they pick up Brunswick due to the Garrett factor. If I were to make a really bold prediction? I think their bloodbath is going to be most greatly reflected in the upper house - they'll retain their spot in northern metro, but they'll be going deep into a preference battle to do so.

Very astute predictions nobbyiscool

 

[Jiska]

Is there any reason why Andrews hasn't already pushed to change out this system of preferencing allocation? The SA Labor Government managed to copy the changes to Federal senate voting only months after they'd passed.

Because above the line voting benefits the major parties. They’d rather do a deal with minor parties to get legislation pass than to deal with each other.

Federal changes only occurred because independents were needed to guarantee supply at the time so held a bit of power to effect change.

 

[nobbyiscool]

Very astute predictions nobbyiscool

I'd forgotten about that post, thanks for the quote/reminder.

**** me, I wasn't too far off, hey?

The upper house really was a ****ing bloodbath for the Greens that probably doesn't get enough attention because of how friggen long it takes to count, and because the story ended up being the minor/single issue parties and the bullshit Drury deals.

 

[Jascave]

Apart from Labor, I reckon the biggest winners out of the 2018 Victorian state election was Jon Faine of the ABC and The Age newspaper. They were better balanced in their coverage compared to Neil Mitchell on 3AW and the Herald Sun. Interestingly, Daniel Andrews has still not appeared on Mitchell’s 3AW morning drive program since he became Premier.


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[Turnover]

Apart from Labor, I reckon the biggest winners out of the 2018 Victorian state election was Jon Faine of the ABC and The Age newspaper. They were better balanced in their coverage compared to Neil Mitchell on 3AW and the Herald Sun. Interestingly, Daniel Andrews has stillnot appeared on Mitchell’s 3AW morning drive program since he became Premier.


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Jon faine for Australian of the year.

 

[Pessimistic]

The question is, how would the Libs have done if they had had a charismatic leader like Jeff? The trump question.

Maybe you can’t run on a trump set of policies if you aren’t charismatic and can jump the shark so to speak

 

[Jascave]

The question is, how would the Libs have done if they had had a charismatic leader like Jeff? The trump question.

Maybe you can’t run on a trump set of policies if you aren’t charismatic and can jump the shark so to speak

Don’t think Jeff Kennett would’ve been the answer to the Liberals problems, considering how dysfunctional and disorganised the Coalition was during the election campaign. Peta Credlin would’ve been a better choice.


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[Baltimore Jack]

It was Kennett who implemented failed policies that current day Liberals are now struggling to deal with
All Labor needed to do was reverse almost everything Kennett did and Hey Presto, the Public love it

 

[Jascave]

3AW’s Neil Mitchell must still be upset over the fact that Premier Daniel Andrews and the then Opposition Leader Matthew Guy chose Jon Faine of the ABC to be the moderator for their radio debate in the lead up to last year’s state election. Mitchell must now wonder what more does he has to do to get the big names of Australian politics like PM Scott Morrison or Andrews back on his program.


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[Generalissimo]

He could try not being a complete arseclown.

 

[nobbyiscool]

I suspect BF probably isn’t the right place to appreciate or understand this meme - but even by the lofty standards set by Dan Andrews’ social media people, this is A-grade





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[Del191229]

Not sure where you get 20% margins from.

Higgins has a margin of about 7.6% against the Greens and about 10% against the ALP, and won last time with a primary vote of 52%. The last redistribution removed Windsor, and pushed the seat further into Murrumbeena and Hughesdale, not strong areas for the Liberals. The Liberals only won the seat of Malvern by 56% TPP, if O'Dwyer manages a similar result then she could be in trouble.

Goldstein has a 12.7% margin, and it doesn't contain the suburb of Caulfield, but does contain the southern part of that state seat. I think Tim Wilson will hold it but he could find himself in a marginal seat.

What are the margins for Ziebell and Cunnington?

 

[Pessimistic]

Would there be a coloured map anywhere showin booth by booth? That really would be an eye opener

 

[Bombermania]

Would there be a coloured map anywhere showin booth by booth? That really would be an eye opener

This link to tallyroom should do just that.

http://www.tallyroom.com.au/36509

 

[Pessimistic]

Thanks. I guess it’s quicker to look for the blue numbers

88 in a couple of Broady booths and 90 in Benambra

Green wouldn’t be popular in th Benambra Pub

 

[Del191229]

I'd forgotten about that post, thanks for the quote/reminder.

**** me, I wasn't too far off, hey?

The upper house really was a ******* bloodbath for the Greens that probably doesn't get enough attention because of how friggen long it takes to count, and because the story ended up being the minor/single issue parties and the bullshit Drury deals.

Why so anti-Matltzahn? She's a shit candidate, but a lovely well meaning person.