Vic Predict the outcome of the 2018 Victorian State Election

[Jascave]

O’brien Who signed the infamous side letter? Keep that in th bottom drawer ‘in case of emergency’ Dan

If Michael O’Brien is still the Liberals leader by the time the 2022 Victorian state election comes around, expect Labor to use the side letter for the defunct East-West Link in their attack ads.

I still can’t believe why the Coalition didn’t use the ‘Guilty Party’ ads for their 2018 campaign, the ones that helped Jeff Kennett sweep to power in 1992.


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[Doss]

Because it’s a by now 26 year old ad, that is more stale than the frozen end crust of the bread loaves we all have in our freezers, gathering icicles.

 

[Pessimistic]

no state based local member is going to make or break Chapel Street

high rentals, sweet **** all parking, shitty easy access in and out, and the growth of high end brands in the CBD, Chadstone, Doncaster, and so on killed chapel street

my wife used to go there all the time, doesnt now because the clothes are shit and its a pain in the arse to get to.

its a council issue to sort out, not a state govt one

If Michael O’Brien is still the Liberals leader by the time the 2022 Victorian state election comes around, expect Labor to use the side letter for the defunct East-West Link in their attack ads.

I still can’t believe why the Coalition didn’t use the ‘Guilty Party’ ads for their 2018 campaign, the ones that helped Jeff Kennett sweep to power in 1992.


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They showed footage of alp mps looking shifty at the ‘right’ moment? Maybe they didn’t because Guy looked shifty most of the time

 

[Hornberger]

Based on the post-election pendulum, the Liberal's 45th seat to win back majority government is Frankston which has a 9.7% margin.
That is larger swing than the one for Bracks in 2002 or Kennett in 1992. You need to go back to the ALP-DLP schism in 1955 to find a swing of that size.

The required swing of 9.7% is before the effect of next distribution, which will favour Labor. Post-Distribution, the tipping point would either be Narre Warren North at 9.8% or Geelong on 10.1%.

 

[Jascave]

The Coalition can forget about winning the 2022 election. Try using the 2022 election as an opportunity to build up strength and depth, so that they can go into the 2026 election with a realistic chance of regaining government in Victoria.

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[pazza]

Ripon finally held by the Liberals, by just 15 votes.

 

[Benny78]

The Coalition can forget about winning the 2022 election. Try using the 2022 election as an opportunity to build up strength and depth, so that they can go into the 2026 election with a realistic chance of regaining government in Victoria.

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Not quite. Murdoch will go full attack on Shorten and by then people will hate Shorten and punish Andrews. Then we will have another 6 years of liberal fed/state governments killing babies and stuff.

 

[Pessimistic]

If Scott Morrison and the rest of his government saw the final results of the Victorian election, it would’ve sent shudders down their spine, because if the results was replicated at the next federal election, the Coalition would lose all their seats in Victoria by a big margin.


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Shudders down their what?

 

[Dixie Flatline]

Somebody ring the waaaaaah-mbulance.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...vicious-personal-attacks-20181210-p50l8z.html

 

[TimmeT]

Somebody ring the waaaaaah-mbulance.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...vicious-personal-attacks-20181210-p50l8z.html

we then get comments like these from this sexist crikey journalist attacking men.

 

[mighty tiges]

Legislative Council results have been declared.

Labor 18 ............(+4)
Liberal 10 ...........(-4)
National 1 .......... (-1)
Hinch Justice 3
Lib Democrat 2
Greens 1 ............ (-4)
Reason 1
Animal Justice 1
SFF 1 ................... (-1)
Sustainable Aus. 1
Transport Matters 1

https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/State2018/summary.html#region
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Victorian_state_election#Legislative_Council

 

[Farm Boy]

Somebody ring the waaaaaah-mbulance.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...vicious-personal-attacks-20181210-p50l8z.html

No wahhhhh-mbulance. She went through a really hard time. Hopefully she hangs in there and sticks at it. After briefly reading the article, she makes more sense than anything I have heard from the Vic Liberals. I wish her well. She is spot on about Andrews as well, and yes, he does lead a very negative campaign, he is a negative and toxic individual..This lady speaking out deserves an applause. She isn't afraid of the bully. I like her and Jane Garrett, both very strong women. Liberal Party of Victoria could only dream of having such women among their ranks. Hopefully this strong woman finds a party deserving of her.

 

[mighty tiges]

No wahhhhh-mbulance. She went through a really hard time. Hopefully she hangs in there and sticks at it. After briefly reading the article, she makes more sense than anything I have heard from the Vic Liberals. I wish her well. She is spot on about Andrews as well, and yes, he does lead a very negative campaign, he is a negative and toxic individual..This lady speaking out deserves an applause. She isn't afraid of the bully. I like her and Jane Garrett, both very strong women. Liberal Party of Victoria could only dream of having such women among their ranks. Hopefully this strong woman finds a party deserving of her.

It's just more two faced hypocrisy from the Greens. She is in denial about the terrible state of her own party's backyard. That was one of the reasons why she lost her seat to another female candidate.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/v...d/news-story/8ce77497e7d9668471b45e509304909b

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...abusive-internal-culture-20180410-p4z8qb.html

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11...footscray-and-sandringham-candidates/10494022

And the Greens hypocrisy goes beyond internal culture to policy in action or should that be inaction. They run around claiming to be the party that's strongest on wanting climate change action yet sided with Abbott and the AGW denialists in the LNP to kill off the ETS. The same can be said about public transport where they opposed the leasing of the Port of Melbourne which is significantly funding the level crossing removals and infrastructure upgrades (eg: signalling, HCTs, etc) on Melbourne's rail system. Continually getting on their high moral horse talking about progressive issues is cheap when they have a history of going missing inside and outside of parliament when it counts most.

 

[GreatBradScott]

Everyone was engaged in student politics antics. To be completely honest, Thorpe was okay, at least was across her policy areas and engaged well with her community on them (environment, indigenous rights and representation).

Did more in a year than Ellen Sandell did in four.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

I've heard it suggested that Thorpe did perhaps not as much as she could have during her time as an MP to help her constituents and spent most of her time talking about indigenous affairs. While a noble and worthy cause, many of her constituents would have a few more prosaic concerns, such as public transport options and improvement to education facilities in her electorate.

 

[TimmeT]

It's just more two faced hypocrisy from the Greens. She is in denial about the terrible state of her own party's backyard. That was one of the reasons why she lost her seat to another female candidate.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/v...d/news-story/8ce77497e7d9668471b45e509304909b

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...abusive-internal-culture-20180410-p4z8qb.html

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11...footscray-and-sandringham-candidates/10494022

And the Greens hypocrisy goes beyond internal culture to policy in action or should that be inaction. They run around claiming to be the party that's strongest on wanting climate change action yet sided with Abbott and the AGW denialists in the LNP to kill off the ETS. The same can be said about public transport where they opposed the leasing of the Port of Melbourne which is significantly funding the level crossing removals and infrastructure upgrades (eg: signalling, HCTs, etc) on Melbourne's rail system. Continually getting on their high moral horse talking about progressive issues is cheap when they have a history of going missing inside and outside of parliament when it counts most.

The Greens go around telling us how other parties have foul morals, the LNP has no care of human rights and complains about apparently major issues like sexism and abuse towards women. Furthermore they are the first to complain when any other party doesn't do what they believe should happen yet remain hypocritically silent when others call out their pot calling the kettle behaviours or their poor behaviour (even sometimes they go as far as trying to defend it). It seems that one party who was on the receiving end of a big whack against thier vote at the polls has admitted they have issues in their paarty and note it is not Greens.

Maybe if the greens got around to identifying that they have issues in their own party then they might do something to resolve the issues. It seems presently however that they have still gone down the moral high ground path where they claim they are better than everyone else and the only problems are with other parties. The LNP seems less dysfunctional which would be saying something.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

we then get comments like these from this sexist crikey journalist attacking men.

Her bankruptcy was fair game

Greens have skated through the hard scrutiny in the past because they didn’t matter. They do now, and guess what, the life of a candidate will go under a microscope as a result.

Greens would have said zero if a lib or alp candidate was being questioned publicly about possible financial mismanagement in the past. They have to realize they are not immune

A good start would be proper screening of candidates before their nomination is accepted.

 

[nobbyiscool]

The Greens go around telling us how other parties have foul morals, the LNP has no care of human rights and complains about apparently major issues like sexism and abuse towards women. Furthermore they are the first to complain when any other party doesn't do what they believe should happen yet remain hypocritically silent when others call out their pot calling the kettle behaviours or their poor behaviour (even sometimes they go as far as trying to defend it). It seems that one party who was on the receiving end of a big whack against thier vote at the polls has admitted they have issues in their paarty and note it is not Greens.

Maybe if the greens got around to identifying that they have issues in their own party then they might do something to resolve the issues. It seems presently however that they have still gone down the moral high ground path where they claim they are better than everyone else and the only problems are with other parties. The LNP seems less dysfunctional which would be saying something.

Holy ****. I agree with most of that!

 

[Contra Mundum]

Not quite. Murdoch will go full attack on Shorten and by then people will hate Shorten and punish Andrews. Then we will have another 6 years of liberal fed/state governments killing babies and stuff.

They will have one of those "terror" arrests where its two pissed guys called Habib and Abdul talking shit on the phone

 

[Jascave]

How does Daniel Andrews win in the recent Victorian election compare that to the late Malcolm Fraser’s victory in the 1975 Federal Election in terms of the number of seats won?


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[NTRabbit]

They will have one of those "terror" arrests where its two pissed guys called Habib and Abdul talking shit on the phone

The dangerous 'beheading' weapon seized by police turning out to be a plastic sword from a Royal Melbourne Show bag.

 

[Theseventhhamster]

How does Daniel Andrews win in the recent Victorian election compare that to the late Malcolm Fraser’s victory in the 1975 Federal Election in terms of the number of seats won?


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You're a bot yeah?

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Excellent Summary of Vic Election

https://insidestory.org.au/final-reckoning-nine-views-of-victorias-election/

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

The Coalition can forget about winning the 2022 election. Try using the 2022 election as an opportunity to build up strength and depth, so that they can go into the 2026 election with a realistic chance of regaining government in Victoria.

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This isn't going to happen.

The young Libs in Victoria have been actively purging anyone who isn't a toffy nosed reactionary. Especially females.

It's literally become the private school 4chan MAGA best friends society.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

The Greens go around telling us how other parties have foul morals, the LNP has no care of human rights and complains about apparently major issues like sexism and abuse towards women. Furthermore they are the first to complain when any other party doesn't do what they believe should happen yet remain hypocritically silent when others call out their pot calling the kettle behaviours or their poor behaviour (even sometimes they go as far as trying to defend it). It seems that one party who was on the receiving end of a big whack against thier vote at the polls has admitted they have issues in their paarty and note it is not Greens.

Maybe if the greens got around to identifying that they have issues in their own party then they might do something to resolve the issues. It seems presently however that they have still gone down the moral high ground path where they claim they are better than everyone else and the only problems are with other parties. The LNP seems less dysfunctional which would be saying something.

My issue with the Greens is they always shirk actually voting for the progressive option when it comes to big ticket items.

They pull the "it's not exactly what we want schtick", and some argue it's a cynical attempt not to get triangulated on from the left, but personally i think it's the case of the party talking a big game, but the leadership actually being closer to NIMBY loving upper middle class tosspots that don't actually want certain kinds of material change.

If they can always sit just outside what they think either party will vote for, they never have to be pinned down and actually help pass progressive legislation themselves. My favourite example is them teaming up with the Libs to vote down new state housing.

They did this under the pretext that it was because the state was funding it through land sales, but when you actually looked at the community groups the Greens were rallying around, they were all wealthy 40-50 year old NIMBY's who didn't want any new state housing nearby. Thus we could see the essential lie of their platform.

The game was nearly up when they came close to supporting the Libs in their effort to prevent necessary railyard upgrades, which help the Andrews government's PT agenda, allowing for additional services. Again, local NIMBY's didn't want anything that could remotely interfere with property prices, no matter how unlikely. They just about went for it, but The Age covered the upcoming vote and the Greens got absolutely roasted online. Even then they dragged their heals and said they were considering things. Di Natale and his mate Whish-Wilson aren't particularly leftwing at all and there was genuine acrimony on Vic election night, between the mostly female candidates and Di Natale. Bandt wasn't happy either and you can tell the left of the party feel sidelined and unhappy, especially post Di Natales purges. Allegedly Di Natale and crew are absolutely paranoid of the word "socialist" even being mentioned and many of his cadre won't even talk to or acknowledge many younger or leftwing members.

It's young and middle aged wealthy professionals they are interested in targeting, people who wholeheartedly love capitalism, but are scared for the wildlife around their favourite vacationing spots, or have a fuzzy sense of social good that includes not saying mean things to people and once protested many moons ago when they were in university. People who think the party or their base are radicals have NFI. There are some actual socialists on Labor's left, as long suffering and few as they are, the same could not be said for the Greens post Milne.