Preview Preliminary Final: Geelong Cats v Brisbane Lions - 7:50 PM Friday the 16th of September

[Son of Superboot]

I’m bored without having the hoodoo to break this week, winning to get into a granny seems small fry in comparison.

The hoodoo this week is that we haven't beaten Geelong at the MCG, since the last time we beat them at the MCG, 2004 Prelim!

 

[Ceebee]

Cats will be planning their ducking , push in the back free kicks , so they can be performed to perfection tomorrow night .

 

[Lion_LegacyXL]

I’m bored without having the hoodoo to break this week, winning to get into a granny seems small fry in comparison.

How about redeeming the 2020 prelim or that's it's been almost 20 years since we've defeated the Cats outside of Queensland. Geelong are minor premiers that are going into this game with a 14 game winning streak, almost the entire football community thinks they are already in the grand final and we are no chance. Winning back to back finals at the MCG and backing up our performance against Melbourne is more than enough of an obsticle for the boys to overcome.

 

[martinson]

Seeing I apparently launch 'repeated' attacks on the club I'll stop tipping them with any gusto this week and say that we have some chance.

Everyone seems worried about Hawkins and Cameron , we can only do what we can do with our backline unit , but it starts further up the field because Cameron/Hawkins are great judges at when to lead/make space and when to go back and get a lot of easy ball if their midfielders aren't pressured. We also need to fill the gaps that often appear across their half forward line.

I'm not for Bez going M/F for the full game . If he has a half in him that's plenty as we saw last week. Last week we had Rayner ,Berry and Bailey up our sleeve because none of them had done much at half time. If they all fire on the same night this week that could get us over the line.

 

[martinson]

How about redeeming the 2020 prelim or that's it's been almost 20 years since we've defeated the Cats outside of Queensland. Geelong are minor premiers that are going into this game with a 14 game winning streak, almost the entire football community thinks they are already in the grand final and we are no chance. Winning back to back finals at the MCG and backing up our performance against Melbourne is more than enough of an obsticle for the boys to overcome.

That still hurts. Roles are reversed this week. Good opportunity to see how far we've come. You wouldn't think they could play any better than that night.

 

[Lion_LegacyXL]

That still hurts. Roles are reversed this week. Good opportunity to see how far we've come. You wouldn't think they could play any better than that night.

You wouldn't but it's amazing to think it was only half a game, imagine if we somehow brought that intent, gut running and hard tackling for 3 or 4 quarters as unlikely as that seems. What impressed me most was that we achieved a level of resolve, composure and yeah dare I say it GRIT that we haven't reached before this finals series. Last Friday was the first time in my time supporting this club where I felt like we belonged with the heavyweight teams in the comp on the big stage in a final. Felt like everything I dreamt of seeing the Lions become. Couldn't feel more proud as a supporter other than witnessing your team win the flag and lifting the premiership cup on grand final day.

 

[Sanchez365]

I just rewatched the highlights of that 2020 prelim, I reckon the shorter quarters hurt us. We also had Lester get completely toweled up by Dangerfield (sorry 3KZ) which hopefully won't happen this week.

There was also a few noticable midfield breakdowns, with Lyons heavily involved (lol). Different looking team tomorrow. No reason why we can't blow them off the park tomorrow night.

Go lions.

 

[Lion_LegacyXL]

I just rewatched the highlights of that 2020 prelim, I reckon the shorter quarters hurt us. We also had Lester get completely toweled up by Dangerfield (sorry 3KZ) which hopefully won't happen this week.

There was also a few noticable midfield breakdowns, with Lyons heavily involved (lol). Different looking team tomorrow. No reason why we can't blow them off the park tomorrow night.

Go lions.

Ultimately I'd like to think the bye was the biggest influence. We looked so off compared to Geelong that night, they were so sharp and ran circles around us that game. We lost our momentum after the win against Richmond and the Cats were obviously motivated to win a flag for Scott & Ablett was retiring.

 

[MSB ROYS]

Key is to have an overall high team performance and plenty of pressure. Also need to take the most of our chances in front of goal.

Lions to win and the some of the media will be sulking all week. Go Lions!

 

[martinson]

I just rewatched the highlights of that 2020 prelim, I reckon the shorter quarters hurt us. We also had Lester get completely toweled up by Dangerfield (sorry 3KZ) which hopefully won't happen this week.

There was also a few noticable midfield breakdowns, with Lyons heavily involved (lol). Different looking team tomorrow. No reason why we can't blow them off the park tomorrow night.

Go lions.

I doubt we can blow them off the park but Bailey ,Clug ,Berry ,Rayner ,Starc , Hippy, are 2 years older and stronger. So that's a factor.

Now that you mention it that was such a strange game. They monstered us and we didn't seem to know how to stem the tide at that stage.

 

[Son of Superboot]

I re-watched the Rd 4 game last night and I intend to watch the gabba game from last year tonight. Cats were missing Selwood and Stewart, and we were without Big O, Kiddy and Hippy. I think the scoreline flattered us, with cat's inaccuracy keeping us in the game. We won't talking about Hawkins and his hands in the back.
I think, if anything, our taller forward line will stretch the cat's, as long as we play similar to last week and send in some chaos ball's. The Cat's have also struggle to keep Charlie quiet. Question will be if the cat's use O'Connor to tag Lachie, instead of being the medi-sub. Ours will be how do we man-up on Cameron. I think Payne and Gardiner to him while he is in the forward 1/2, but when he drifts further up the field, maybe Berry goes to him?
Also think playing at the MCG plays to our advantage and will we get more crowd support. Hearing the "Lions" chant last week bought back some memories.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Some forecast models show any rain easing off around first bounce, but yep, looks likely to be a wet deck.

Forecasts still saying the same thing. Showers and maybe storms during the afternoon, clearing some time in the evening.

 

[MSB ROYS]

 

[twhowler]

Personally i am happy with Stanley. I reckon Ceglar is a good ruck and height can trouble big O.

I watched the highlights from our 2020 prelim. My memory overall is we were outplayed all night. But interesting how in touch we were. A goal down at half time. 10 points own with 6.50 in the third remaining. If we were a bit 'flat' from the break, we certainly had time to respond.

We did a lot of bees to the honeypot - we were very worried about their big bodied mids. So much so that Fagan played CEY over Kiddy! What a call haha.

The cats midfield not as big now, Dangerfield fewer minutes, no Ablett. And we are a bit faster and less obsessed with getting the clearance.

Of course the game earlier this year a better guide. We were outplayed that night but hung in there with efficiency.

Realistically both teams playing differently to round 4 so it will look like a different game i think. Could be a bit of a chess game early. Not Fagan's strength - not really one to make changes much during the game - so up to the players to adjust.

 

[iBeng]

Just a bit of a hype vid to prepare us for tomorrow!

 

[Mr Ripper]

Far too many people rewatching losses. Wtf is wrong with you people?

 

[M Malice]

Cam Rayner was awesome on The Roar Deal talking about this game.

 

[RoyBoy17]

Odds on Hawkins pushing Harris Andrews

31

Harris Andrews

Age

27

Ht

202cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.8

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.6

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

151.7

2star

D

17.0

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.0

3star

D

9.8

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

4.8

4star

M

3.4

4star

T

1.6

4star

MG

94.0

2star

in the back causing him to project 10 meters and then the umpire paying a free kick to Hawkins for a push in the back?

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

Good thing about finals is that the best umpires are usually the ones selected, and the Cats won't have quite the roar of affirmation in their favour as they would at Kardinia.

 

[_bonza_]

Hi All - not much of a poster but long time reader/lurker.

Not sure if this is the place to ask but if anyone has a priority 3 membership/barcode they aren't planning on using for the Grand Final Ballot I would love to be considered for it.

Hoping Sydney smash the filth so more of us can make it in!

PS - Lions by 6 goals, Charlie to kick 5

**Update - Massive thank you to knaf for sending me theirs, I now owe them my future firstborn

 

[knaf]

I am not as good as you 3KZ on the computer, but found this write up on AFL.Com.au from yesterday.

Final teams, subs in for Cats-Lions prelim. LIVE from 7.50pm AEST

A Grand Final spot is up for grabs when Geelong takes on Brisbane at the MCG on Friday night

www.afl.com.au

I don't think Payne was 'excellent' but thought he was OK last week, seen your edited clip of Payne errors, could do that for any back in most games, and including last week's semi. Lever, Petty and May looked ordinary at times throughout that game. Dizzy made errors, arguably Starc could have marked Kozzie a little tighter. Rich was pretty loose especially in the first Q etc etc.

Payne or Starc IMO are the only two bigger bodied backs who can get close to Rohan's speed, it certainly is not Lester, wet or dry.

We all know stats: are not the only measure of performance, but have a comparison of Lester 2022 AFL Fantasy Points (35.3)and Gardiners (50) against Payne's. (56.5)
Gardiner also has given away 19 Frees this year from 20 games. Payne has given away 2 from 11 games.

The McStay proposal I can see some merit, as IMO we have looked better with the two talls and Cam playing deep forward at times.

It could be argued McStay on Cameron, Payne on Rohan and Andrews on Hawkins, is a slightly more mobile and taller backline structure. What I think will happen is that Fort will miss out and that is a shame, first half was Ok, but I thought his second half was good last week.

Really looking forward to the game, just pleased with have made the PF, I did not think we would, and like all here I dare to dream of the last Saturday in September.

Great to read someone balancing the discussion about Payne. He is a young KPD, quick and agile, with IMHO has a huge up-side. He’s still a work in progress and is not infallible. Haven’t rewatch the game but wasn’t he matched up on Jackson a lot? Ds tall forwards Brown, Jackson, Gawn when resting forward we’re a non-issue. Full credit to Harris but Payne must get some credit too.

Looks like he is going to be the new Dan Merrett. After 200 solid games posters will still be highlighting every mistake. Maybe the same posters who couldn’t leave Dan alone?

 

[M Malice]

 

[knaf]

Hi All - not much of a poster but long time reader/lurker.

Not sure if this is the place to ask but if anyone has a priority 3 membership/barcode they aren't planning on using for the Grand Final Ballot I would love to be considered for it.

Hoping Sydney smash the filth so more of us can make it in!

PS - Lions by 6 goals, Charlie to kick 5

Will PM you. Unfortunately my circumstances make it difficult to attend games, but still maintain membership.

 

[twhowler]

NOT a hot take - but Geelong's age... wow. From their QF side

34yo x 2
33 x 1
32 x 2
31 x 4
30 x 1

Now plenty of them are showing no real signs of slowing down.

But not crazy to think one or two might just struggle a bit at the end of a big game. THis is assuming we are close at the end!

 

[martinson]

NOT a hot take - but Geelong's age... wow. From their QF side

34yo x 2
33 x 1
32 x 2
31 x 4
30 x 1

Now plenty of them are showing no real signs of slowing down.

But not crazy to think one or two might just struggle a bit at the end of a big game. THis is assuming we are close at the end!

7.50 start so it could be getting past bedtime for 2 or 3 of them.