Discussion Preliminary Final: St Kilda vs Western Bulldogs

[LordJimmy]

I hate to sound arrogant to the Western Bulldogs supporters - they've been a fabulous team this year and perhaps a worthy challenger.
That being said, our side just knows how to shut them down and out, and Lake is just no match for Riewoldt (4.5, 5.0).
The Bulldogs might take it up to us big time and if they do we're looking at one of the greatest Preliminary finals ever.

On the tall forwards note, in a game where the Bulldogs roughly doubled their opponent's score and smashed the opposition, the tall forwards of the other side still managed to kick plently of goals (Bradshaw, Brown). Riewoldt has proven to be Brian Lake's measure twice this year, and Koschitzke was suspended last time and down on form and injury the time before.

 

[BB1888]

unfortuantly agree.

So do I, I thought we were very ordinary last night.

I actually thought that the first half was the worst half of footy I have seen in a long time.

 

[StFly]

At least this is probably the 2nd best scenario all things considering with the outcomes. As soon as the Dogs lost to the Cats they ensured that one of us would be reaching the GF considering the Lions were rather undermanned and having to travel. So in that sense, it's good that one of us will be given an opportunity to make a drop in the ocean between us as the premier sides of the competition. Just sucks that it has to be 1 week beforehand.

That being said, I hope to hell it is us and not the dogs.

 

[The Punter]

It's a prelim, so I'm nervous.

Realistically, Kosi missing last time helped us, because Lake initially went to Riewoldt. Lake was conceding marks to Riewoldt five minutes into the game.

If they bring Tom Williams in, great. I'm on the record as saying I think he's no good.

Lake will go to Kosi, because Lake is superb overhead and very good at doing the main thing you need to do to stop Kosi - push him slightly just as he's about to jump for a mark.

The key will be the contested ball. Hayes, Ball, Dal Santo & Montagna v Boyd, Cross, Cooney and Griffin. They have good taggers such as Ward, and their midfield is built a lot like ours. Our advantage in this area is we have two quality ruckmen (who have both been All-Australian), while the Doggies have one good ruckman and one honest trier.

The main advantage for us is the way our defence sets up. They simply don't have a quality "get out" target, and you need one against St Kilda. Quite simply, don't expect Welsh or Minson to have any influence as forwards. Murphy doesn't have a great record against St Kilda either. Their goals are probably going to have to come from their midfield plus Johnson and Akermanis. Akermanis tore us up last year twice - but Steven Baker played in neither encounter.

 

[stefoid]

Guido, Griffen, Eagleton, murph and Higgins are important for us, because ,whilst we can match it around the ground and our defence can hold its own, we need quality delivery into the F50 to score. And coony of course - hes dancing on his toes again, getting back to his brownlow form last year.

In terms of finals nerves and regaining touch and form of some players (murph, griffen, guido - three of those important ball users) , the extra game has probably been a benefit.

Hoping for a good contest - the brisbane game was too one-sided.

 

[okeydoke7]

Riewoldt holds the key. Carn the saints.

 

[Rough_Edges]

Really Really nervous for next week, why wouldn't we be, this is now the 4th prelim we've made in 6 years, still yet to make a GFDespite the scoreboard ssaying we comfortably beat the Dogs in rd 17. They were 18 points down at 3/4 time with 2 of their better players (Murphy, Higgins) off the ground injured and Welsh made a massive blunder.

I think next week could be a bit tougher than what some are expecting.

We will need to bring our A game next week.

 

[Armitage2Riewoldt]

Confident. But will be nervous as shit regardless.

Hoping I can get work off...

 

[Alpha Male]

I've said before every game that I wont feel we have it won until the final siren goes.

I tipped the Lions last night, not because I wanted to play them, I just honestly thought that they would win and wow was I wrong. It was the Doggies midfield that demolished the Lions in the first half and allowed them to kick away in the second, however, I don't think they will be given the same chances against the Saints.

The St. Kilda defence won't let themselves get dragged up the ground and play man on man like the Lions did. Fisher, Gilbert, Goddard, Blake will all zone off at times and make it hard to play that quick, Pagans Paddock style that works well for the Dogs. They will change opponents as needed. Dawson will take Welsh or a ruckman when they are forward otherwise he will play fairly loose. Baker on Akermanis.

Lake to Kosi and Morris to Riewoldt would be expected but they will need all the help they can get from Hargrave, Welsh and the two ruckman dropping back to cover the long ball in. Riewoldt can't be double teamed most of the time because he takes so many marks on the lead rather than in a contest. The Saints also have 2 very good crumbers in Milne and Schnieder that will be hard to match up on. McQualter to tag Gilbee.

In the middle King and Gardiner are well above Minson and Hudson in both their ruckwork and around the ground influence. The Doggies will hope that they can push forward and snag a couple goals to keep the Saints accountable. Cross to Hayes. Ball to Boyd. Jones on Cooney. Dal Santo and Giansiracusa. Picken on Montagna. Gram and Eagleton. Goddard on Griffen. I have it 3-2 St. Kilda's way (Hayes/Montagna/Dal Santo vs Cooney/Boyd) with 2 that could go either way. We also have to take into account Murphy and Higgins for the Dogs and Ray and Schnieder for the Saints.

The keys to this game for the Saints:

1. Close checking on Johnson and Aker in the forward line. Gilbert and Baker to get the jobs.
2. Playing defensive side of the contest. The Dogs love to handball forward and the Saints need to be ready for this.
3. Loose in defense. St. Kilda must engineer Fisher/Blake/Gilbert to get loose at times and stop the fast entries of the Dogs.

Keys for the Dogs:

1. Push Hudson/Minson/Griffen/Cooney forward at all cost. The Dogs must keep a contested ball winner deep forward to counter the Saints zone.
2. Eagle to fly. When he is up and going Eagleton can get very dangerous (last night a perfect example) The big names will all be checked so the pressure must be put on Eagleton to perform again.
3. Lake must play on Kosi. The Pies made the mistake of putting their best defender on Riewoldt. The Dogs must avoid this mistake. Roo will drag any opponent up the ground and render him useless. Lake must play full back so that he can zone off.

All up it's going to be a very tough game for either team to win. I won't believe it until I see it but I'll tip the Saints to get up by less than 3 goals.

 

[Cuz2Plugger]

unfortuantly agree.

Buying into that sort of complacency gets one ahead of themselves.

 

[PearsLair]

Saints by 80.

Their lack of key forwards kills them every year and will again be their undoing.

 

[RustNeverSleeps]

With Gia and Higgins now hitting their straps after lengthy injuries, the Doggies forward-line has a bit more variety and sting.

The Saints lost a bit of a momentum going into the finals and it's not clear whether it's fully returned.

I'm banking on this going down to the wire... and the Doggies to get up.

 

[Plugger35]

Anyone think Max will come in or any other changes will be made?

Lyon was interviewed at half time during the game last night but, as per usual, didn't give much away. When he was asked about Max, he said it depended on the opposition forward set up but that we also have a pretty settled line-up at the moment and so they were unlikely to make too many changes.

I got the feeling that Max's only chance was if we played the Lions with him taking either Brown or Bradshaw. Hard to see him coming in against the Dogs when they don't have any real key forwards of note.

Having said that, Max has done a great job shutting down some of the Dogs medium/small forwards like Brad Johnson in the past. I also reckon the Dogs are capable of pressuring our backline a lot more than the Pies did last week and Max's experience down back could be invaluable. I can't see them dropping Dawson but I'd be lying if I said I didn't still have some concerns about him getting exposed at full back.

 

[Armitage2Riewoldt]

With Gia and Higgins now hitting their straps after lengthy injuries, the Doggies forward-line has a bit more variety and sting.

The Saints lost a bit of a momentum going into the finals and it's not clear whether it's fully returned.

I'm banking on this going down to the wire... and the Doggies to get up.

I think knocking off the Pies is a pretty decent indication that we're back in form. In particular our game breakers like Lenny, Roo, Goddard and Gilbert all played their best game in weeks.

Hopefully we only get better! And Im sure Roo and Lenny will appreciate the week off. As will Gilbert who seemed to injure one of his fingers in the match. Didn't bother him too much though.

 

[saintsrule]

With Gia and Higgins now hitting their straps after lengthy injuries, the Doggies forward-line has a bit more variety and sting.

The Saints lost a bit of a momentum going into the finals and it's not clear whether it's fully returned.

I'm banking on this going down to the wire... and the Doggies to get up.

Momentum won't be an issue come next Friday night. Saints have accounted for Dogs by a total of 74 pts in two games. What's Geelong's record v dogs this year?

 

[StFly]

Dear god "oh woe momentum!" there was a similar discrepency between the Saints and Pies in terms of possession and time in possesion than there were for the Lions & Dogs namely in the one side absolutely dominated the other in general play, and yet because of point differentials "oh woah, momentum hasn't returned yet." The only thing not clear yet is what Cat flogs continue to throw in their 2bob at every opportunity they get with cheap opinionated garbage.

On the game though, I do wonder what it is with that one flank where everyone seems to slip over and I actually do think that little niggle injuries might play a factor (like Murphy's or Griffins corkie) as we've seen throughout the year that pretty much most sides having faced the Saints end up with a couple who miss a week, so it's a catch 22 in a way if that prticular form is continued, as you wouldn't want to go into a prelim under a cloud, win it but then miss the next week because you pulled a Pendlebury.

 

[paul of tuval]

Saw the game last night. Very unimmpressed with the doggies. The Lions were out of their league, but if that's the best the Doggies can do then it shouldn't be a worry. Their small fast set-up won't cope with our strangulation. The conditions didn't help but their skills were pretty poor.
A St.Kilda Geelong GF will be a cracker, but I won't sleep the whole week before

 

[Cuz2Plugger]

Dog's game is going to be hard and tough, they took care of Geelong quite easily just recently.

 

[BB1888]

Saw the game last night. Very unimmpressed with the doggies. The Lions were out of their league, but if that's the best the Doggies can do then it shouldn't be a worry. Their small fast set-up won't cope with our strangulation. The conditions didn't help but their skills were pretty poor.
A St.Kilda Geelong GF will be a cracker, but I won't sleep the whole week before

I tend to agree with the statement about the Dogs last night but I live in eternal hope that we can pull off a miracle next week against your boys, but if I was a betting man...........

 

[Plugger35]

Dog's game is going to be hard and tough, they took care of Geelong quite easily just recently.

I agree. I certainly wouldn't go underestimating the Dogs.

They were pretty impressive in the 2nd half of the season. They were below their best against Geelong in the QF but still could have won it in the end if they had of kicked straight. Hard to gauge them on last night's performance, they won easily but the Lions were pretty ordinary also.

A few of their best players are back from injury now too and improving, like Higgins, Cross and Giansiracusa, they are at virtually full strength. If they click with their running game they will test us. They will be desperate too, let's not forget they have been close to a GF for the past few years just like us and missed out. They won't be lying down for anyone, it will be a fight to the death.

I'm still confident if we play at our best and are desperate enough we will win but we will want to be. Anything less and we could well be cursing another wasted prelim final opportunity.

 

[Cuz2Plugger]

I agree. I certainly wouldn't go underestimating the Dogs.

They were pretty impressive in the 2nd half of the season. They were below their best against Geelong in the QF but still could have won it in the end if they had of kicked straight. Hard to gauge them on last night's performance, they won easily but the Lions were pretty ordinary also.

A few of their best players are back from injury now too and improving, like Higgins, Cross and Giansiracusa, they are at virtually full strength. If they click with their running game they will test us. They will be desperate too, let's not forget they have been close to a GF for the past few years just like us and missed out. They won't be lying down for anyone, it will be a fight to the death.

I'm still confident if we play at our best and are desperate enough we will win but we will want to be. Anything less and we could well be cursing another wasted prelim final opportunity.

Nuf said. We will have to be on our game and firing.

 

[Pigdog]

Saw the game last night. Very unimmpressed with the doggies. The Lions were out of their league, but if that's the best the Doggies can do then it shouldn't be a worry. Their small fast set-up won't cope with our strangulation. The conditions didn't help but their skills were pretty poor.
A St.Kilda Geelong GF will be a cracker, but I won't sleep the whole week before

If was an absolute foul night at the 'G last night, much like tonight. We will get a good idea of how tough those conditions were by watching how Collingwood & Adelaide fair.

 

[Rough_Edges]

I just don't no how i am going to bear waiting till next friday tbh.

Get sick in the stomach every time I think about it.

 

[Armitage2Riewoldt]

Ooh just realised I've broken my hoodoo.

Before last night I'd been to 4 finals, and we'd lost them all (Sydney 05, Melb 06, Geelong and Hawks last year)

Was starting to think it's bad news if I go.

woot.

Should be able to get work off, flipping pumped.

 

[gabstar]

Saints will smash the bulldogs, maybe a Saints vs Geelong grand final, heres hoping