Preview Preliminary Final v Collingwood MCG Friday 21/9/18

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Well here we are for the 3rd time this year, the apprentices face off against the masters and this time the prize isn't just bragging rights, it's a shot a winning the flag. Each time we have played this year the Pies have talked up their belief that they can beat us, each time they have fallen short. Once again the Pies are talking up their chances ahead of this game with Buckley saying that their best is good enough to beat us, but conceded that talking about is and doing it are two different things.

Previous Meetings
Round 6 2018 Richmond defeated Collingwood by 43 points.
The Pies first crack at the champs and after an even first half the Pies fell by 7 goals as we kicked 12 goals to 5 in the second half to run out comfortable winners. For the Pies Treloar(42 disposals) Phillips(38 disposals) Howe (30 disposals) Pendlebury(29 disposals) Sidebottom (25 disposals) and Grundy(24 disposals 33 hitouts) all had big games while De Goey Cox Stephenson struggled. For the Tigers Cotchin(29 disposals) Martin(29 disposals 10 I50s 10 clearances) Nankervis(29 disposals 17 hitouts) Prestia(25 disposals) Lambert (24 disposals) Caddy(21 disposals 4 goals) and Riewoldt(20 disposals 3 goals) led the way. In this game the Pies tried to control the ball having 50 more disposals and 30 more marks. On the flip side the Tigers won contested possessions by 30 and clearances by 10.

Round 18 2018 Richmond defeated Collingwood by 28 points.
The Pies second crack at us this year followed a similar script to the first meeting. Pies had a crack in the first half before we pulled away in the second half kicking 8 goals to 5. Once again the Pies midfielders racked up big disposal numbers with Sidebottom(38) Pendlebury(37 & 13 clearances) Phillips(33) Adams(30) & Grundy(23 10 tackles 48 hitouts) all dominating the stats sheet. For the Tigers it was a very even performance with every player getting double figure disposals and nobody getting more than 22 disposals highlighted by Edwards(22) B.Ellis(22) Prestia(21) Higgins(20 and 2 goals including goal of the year) Dusty(19 disposals 3 goals) & Riewoldt(16 disposals 3 goals). To be fair the Pies were hit by significant injuries in this game, with Howe getting knocked out and Scharenberg doing his ACL, while Treloar and DeGoey missed through injury as well.

In this game the Pies went away from trying to maintain possession and instead looked to move the ball on quicker and try and match the Tigers in getting the ball forward quickly to give their forwards a chance to work in space, but Richmond set up too well down back and the Pies forwards were once again well held with Stephenson WHE Cox and Mihocek having little impact.

Previous Finals Meeting
1980 Grand Final Richmond defeated Collingwood by 81 points
The Tigers and Pies last met in the finals in 1980 and the Tigers ripped the Pies to shreds with Raines having 36 disposals, Bartlett kicking 7.4 and Cloke bagging 6.4 as well.

Interesting Fact, Richmond have played Collingwood in the prelim final 4 previous time with Richmond winning 3 and losing one, back in 1935. In all finals Richmond lead 7-5. For the record the Pies last win in finals against Richmond was that 1935 game.

2018 Prelim Expected Matchups

B: Short Astbury Vlastuin

F: Thomas Cox Stephenson

HB: Houli Rance Grimes
HF: WHE Mihocek DeGoey

C: Grigg Cotchin KMac
C: Treloar Pendlebury Phillips

HF: Castagna Edwards Rioli
HB: Crisp Maynard Aish

F: Riewoldt Martin Caddy
B: Howe Greenwood Goldsack

R: Nankervis Graham Prestia
R: Grundy Adams Sidebottom

INT: Broad Conca Higgins Lambert
INT: Mayne Langdon Varcoe Sier

Not expecting either side to make any changes from their last games. Despite the media frenzy about Dusty hitting the showers early during the week, there is nothing to be concerned about. While the Pies have a couple of niggles from last night with DeGoey hurting an ankle and Sier a corked thigh I doubt it keeps either out of the game. The big difference between the previous 2 games and this one is that the Pies will head into to the game with a full compliment in middle with Grundy Pendlebury Sidebottom Adams Treloar & Phillips all up and running. For mine this is where the game will be won and lost. If the Pies midfielders can get on top and actually have an impact on the game instead of just racking up big numbers they can put our back line under a bit of pressure. On the other hand if we get on top then our forward line looks too classy for the Pies defenders to handle, unlike their previous 2 opponents we don't go through the one or two avenues to goal, we can and do spread it around as we generally look for the player in the better position.

Key Match Ups
Nankervis v Grundy, in the 2 games this year Grundy has dominated the hitouts, but Nank has broken even as far as around the ground work goes. Both can and do get their hands on the ball in general play.

Grimes v DeGoey, in his only game against us this year DeGoey was held to 9 disposals 3 tackles 1 mark and 1 goal. Expect All Australian Dylan Grimes to get the job on him early, with Broad a chance to get the gig as well.

Riewoldt v Howe/Langdon, Howe can match Jack in the air and also when the ball hits the ground. The Pies may opt to have Langdon play man on man against Jack and use Howe as the 3rd man in.

Caddy v Goldsack, Goldsack has made a remarkable return after doing his ACL in March, I expect they use him to play on Caddy as he has the size and strength to match Caddy in 1-1 contests and the ability to cover the ground as Caddy pushes up the ground.

Martin v Greenwood in the last meeting Greenwood had the run with job on Dusty and did a reasonable job through the middle but was no match up forward. Again I expect they'll have Greenwood primed for Dusty.

Rance v Mihocek, much like the Pies game against the Eagles Mihocek will go to Rance and try and drag him away from the play to stop him from drifting into the hole and taking intercept marks.

Final Word(Finally)
Pies will have a crack and may give us a bit of a scare early on, but in the end I expect us to win by 4-5 goals and book a spot in the Grand Final.
 

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Huge but will bring more pressure than what was on offer last night. I've got my membership but wanted to bring a friend from QLD. If anyone has a spare barcode there not using would love to get it!!
 
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By the way if you're not online with Ticketek by 9.00am then forget about it, game will be sold out by 10am
 

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They have a rag tag forward and back line, but their midfield is A grade. Bring the pressure and we should win.
This is the problem, if your midfield is dominating and ball is coming in with good delivery, it's harder to defend, and it's harder for your forwards to score because of this. Because their midfield is capable of beating ours, our advantages forward and back are somewhat reduced.
 
If we are on from the first bounce, the script of the last two games will repeat and we will pull away late after a even contest. If this happens, expect Ed and the supporters to continue to deny our supremacy and blame 6 day breaks/injuries and umpires (regardless of this years differential stats).

If we let the Pies skip out to an early lead it will make it a lot harder to reel them in.

Overall I'm giving us a 75% chance to get the W here. Not an impossible task for the Pies but up against it nonetheless.

Tigers by 20 for mine
 
We win by 50 IMO, we saw last night that as soon as GWS applied any sort of pressure the pies fell apart and coughed up the ball, problem for gws was that it was sparse and pies cashed in once the pressure dropped right away, we apply pressure for the whole match and pies wont be able to handle that.

Oh and we wont be only applying 48 tackles this time around either.
 
On last night’s performance, I’d expect us to win this by 8-10 goals.

The Giants were atrocious for huge parts of the game and the Pies couldn’t put any scoreboard pressure on. We will not constantly turn the ball over on the way out of the back half like GWS did and we’ll sure as shit pressure the Pies better than the orange men.

Having said that, we all know that isn’t the way it works and Friday is a completely different game. Prelims are about as nerve wracking as footy gets for players and the crowd is going to be mental. This game is going to separate pretenders from the genuine in a glaring way.

I’m extremely cautiously optimistic of a win, but I’m also as nervous as all get up. I can not handle the prospects of losing to these ferals.
 
There is no pretenders here, any team that makes it this far is the real deal.
I do believe after watching the game last night that we are at least an 8 goal team better team than Collingwood. GWS only pressured well for one quarter and nearly stole the game.
We can pressure harder and longer and have the forwards to punish.
 
Will you guys have someone run with Sidebottom? He’s been our best over the finals so far.
If we choose to do anything I reckon we’ll start with Prestia on him. If he starts to get off the chain we’ll move Graham onto him, as we did with Sloane in the GF last year. I doubt we’ll end up applying a proper tag though, don’t recall us doing that this year.
 
This is the problem, if your midfield is dominating and ball is coming in with good delivery, it's harder to defend, and it's harder for your forwards to score because of this. Because their midfield is capable of beating ours, our advantages forward and back are somewhat reduced.

Collingwood normally don't lower their eyes for long stretches. Which is why they struggle against top sides.

They have just bombed it in and relied on Cox to mark or bring it to ground, which hasn't happened at all since the finals ramped up the pressure.

Intercept markers to have a field day, Richmond to do a bit of launching from the backline then locking it in until they goal.
 
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