Put Your Balls on the Line - Where will we Finish this Year ?

[spEKTre]

I have been reading some really good evaluations by posters here on where the West Coasters are at with the current playing list but thought we needed a topic to see who is on the money!.

I personally think we are on the way back up but time will tell, vote where you think we will finish on the ladder in the 2010 home and away season.

Interestingly there is a phenomenon called "The Wisdom of the Crowd" that may play out here so it should be interesting to see how West Coast supporters view the reality of where we are at.

 

[Cuzz09]

I voted for 10th.

I think we will improve from 2009 but only slightly.

Thinking 10 or more wins would be a good effort

 

[bunsen burner]

Should start a new thread and make a poll: top 4, 5-8, 9-12, bottom 4.

This is a really hard season to pick. We are defintely on the way up but because of our draw it may not necessarily reflect that. Traditionally we are at the point in the cycle where we turn Subi into a fortress but still lose most away. We play top teams at home making it harder to turn Subi into a fortress and we play the crap teams where we play outrageously bad football.

Could go either way. We could turn Subi into a fortress beating many top teams and then winning against some easybeats away and end up 5 or 6. Or it could go the other way and we end up bottom. Or it could even out.
Anwhere between 5 and 13. I tip 10th.

I also tip a lot of blouses on this board to lose their bundle if we go 10th or lower. Some people just can't see that in rebuild phase the ladder is not necessarily a gauge as to how we are progressing. It was only last year that most on here were crying like bitches as if the sky was falling in and that Woosha should be sacked. Now we have Naita, Swift, and Shuey these same people are talking it up. I wonder if they will twig next cycle and keep cool rather than having tantrums.

 

[spEKTre]

I would also add, there will be 2 spots up for grabs in the 8 this year with Carlton and Essendon falling out ( only my thoughts ). I expect the Hawks to come back in so realistically there is only one spot up for grabs if last year was an indication.

That spot I'm hoping will be ours and leave the youngsters with some finals experience even though we will have to play it over east and probably get flogged.

 

[Double the Fist]

9th for mine.
While I am still very bullish about our chances, I cannot expect us to get a finals birth on the performance of last year.
Kerr (provided he actually plays well) and Cox will help, I think the youngsters will surprise everyone and the footy world will be looking on with envy at our young talent.
So with the draw as it is, and were we are with our development I predict 9th. If I was a glass half full kinda guy, I would tender 8th. But I'm not.

 

[Off Tap]

Picked 9th only because we play Freo, Hawks, Saints, Cats, Dogs and Crows in a row at home and I don't epect to win more than 1 of those.

 

[shaztec]

i think we will have a more even contribution this year and if we have a good run with injury we can finnish 8th for sure.

 

[15_year_member]

Should start a new thread and make a poll: top 4, 5-8, 9-12, bottom 4.

This is a really hard season to pick. We are defintely on the way up but because of our draw it may not necessarily reflect that. Traditionally we are at the point in the cycle where we turn Subi into a fortress but still lose most away. We play top teams at home making it harder to turn Subi into a fortress and we play the crap teams where we play outrageously bad football.

Could go either way. We could turn Subi into a fortress beating many top teams and then winning against some easybeats away and end up 5 or 6. Or it could go the other way and we end up bottom. Or it could even out.
Anwhere between 5 and 13. I tip 10th.


I also tip a lot of blouses on this board to lose their bundle if we go 10th or lower. Some people just can't see that in rebuild phase the ladder is not necessarily a gauge as to how we are progressing. It was only last year that most on here were crying like bitches as if the sky was falling in and that Woosha should be sacked. Now we have Naita, Swift, and Shuey these same people are talking it up. I wonder if they will twig next cycle and keep cool rather than having tantrums.

My thoughts exactly. Progress can not be measured purely on wins and losses at this stage of the cycle. It's measured by player development and a narrowing of the gap between your best and your worst performances.

I am tipping 8th. I think and i hope that we can squeeze into the 8 with a bit of luck. But as i say i don't think it really matters whether we just get in or just miss out. That is not the benchmark or goal. Player development is.

 

[joeyavalanche]

our draw, run with injuries and consistancy with our kids will either put us right around the mark or just off the pace.

but i think it comes down to the other clubs and how they go.
the top 6 will stay about the same i think.
hawthorn will come up into the 8, but im sure about top 4.

carlton look very lost without a forward line last night and bombers could go either way.

if we win the games we should win and lose the ones we should lose,
im tipping 9th

 

[W3llsy]

Home games (one is away against Freo but still playing at home) are below with my opinions on winnable games.

That gives us 8, and I reckon we need 13 to be guaranteed finals spot (though possibly 11-12 could do it).

Some are 50/50, and that period where we play Hawks/Saints/Cats/Dogs four home games in a row could put a large dent in any 'fortress' theories people have. We need to win 1 of them, any others would be bonus (noting we have played well against particularly Hawks and Saints in recent times).

So I come up with 8 H & A games where we should be favourites. Of the 6 50/50 games, we should be able to win at least 2. That gives us 10 wins - any upsets, or taking chances in those 50/50 games, is where we will push into the 8th spot.

Port - Win
Dons - Win
Freo - Win (50/50)
Hawks - Loss
Saints - Loss
Cats - Loss
Dogs - Win (50/50)
Crows - Win (50/50)
Blues - Win
Freo - Win (50/50)
Lions - Win
Roos - Win

We also have these which we should win on the road:

Kangas
Melbourne
Richmond

And 50/50 type games on the road:

Port
Essendon

Thoughts from others? I will vote for finishing in 9th spot. However oppositions travelling poorly, injuries to our squad etc etc can make things either a lot easier or a lot harder for us. With some decent luck, we will finish 8th. We should definitely improve at least 5-10% on last year.

 

[Marlin01]

I said 8th.

The thing you have to remember is, when you are in the bottom half of the ladder, as we have been for the past couple of years, all fixtures look hard. If we get off to a good start, as I think we will, all of a sudden some of these teams that were ranked above us last year, will not seem so invincible.

Also, when you've been down, as we have been recently, you start to think making the 8 is a huge achievement. It's not, it's a pass. It's only finishing in the the top half. I accept finishing in the top 4 is extremely difficult and you have to be a genuine contender to achieve it, but not finishing 8th. 8th is a narrow pass and if we're any good, we'll do it.

 

[spEKTre]

I said 8th.
I accept finishing in the top 4 is extremely difficult and you have to be a genuine contender to achieve it, but not finishing 8th. 8th is a narrow pass and if we're any good, we'll do it.

Ive said it a few times around these boards, now is definitely the wrong time to be challenging for top 4 - Flag. With 4+ really strong sides competing in the top 3-4 spots on the ladder would make it very very difficult to win the big one.

Build up for when those sides are on the slide or risk having a very good unit fall short like the saints have found out. 2005 and 2006 show this perfectly with only really Sydney being up at the same time we were and splitting the flags 50-50.

 

[bali-dog]

it was easy to get carried away with the NAB cup outing,the mids and Nicnat,and young'uns..
i was certainly excited the footy season had arrived,thinking how much better we looked than last year.. seemed to have more depth,and talent to forge a solid base team for the next assault on the tin mug..

but then i watched the pies and saints..and it was a different level of skills and disposal accuracy..and a good dose of reality.
almost like 1st division and 2nd division..

it made me reel in the unbridled optimism,and settle in for a long, slow but enjoyable(?) journey thru the 2010 season and beyond..generally on the up and up..

i agree with other posters here, that its a hard season to pick,given the draw,and where we're at as a team..youd have to think we'd improve on last year,even win 3 away games,would be an improvement of course,but may not improve greatly on the ladder by seasons end..another staging year,developing our list,really consolidating for 2011,..there may be some surprises in games won away and at home especially..but cant expect miracles..(theres no way we would want to finish in the top 8,as we couldnt compete, let alone complete the mission.)..unless theres an amazing reversal of skills and individual form.

i was saying 7th-11th (a big net) before...but now tend to think 8-10th..
simply, i'm fielding the conservative approach now,but backing the wildcard factor.(in the hope of seeing a couple of exciting breakthru games)
i said 8th.

 

[bunsen burner]

I remember back in '03-ish when we were a little bit ahead of where we are now. We were still petty shit, don't think we made the 8, but were on the way up.

Then we travelled to Brisbane and Judd opened a can 'o whoop-ass on a dynasty-rampaging Lions side. That was the day that changed from "we're on the way up but how far?" to "Pretty sure we can go all the way with this team".

That game may happen again this year, maybe next. It will be a roller coaster this year, so hopefully the good is really good.

 

[mehow2g]

Ive been watching every NAB cup game I know its not the best indicator but when we are
"peaking" in games weve pretty much looked better then all the teams that have played so far not even kidding..

People say Hawks are gonna be top contenders this year to me they looked very average they beat a shocking team that looked like it was gonna fall apart.

Realisictly I think we SHOULD get into the 8.

Potential wise we could be anything I hope we learn alot during this year its possible we could play a few final games thats for sure.

 

[spEKTre]

Bunsen, in our defence....we're no Fremantle and there still is a core of goodness from the 06 Premiership year in Cox, Kerr, Glass, Embley, Hansen, Lynch, Selwood and Butler. Throw in Naita, Shuey, Masten, Kennedy, LeCras and Ebert we have a formula that will surprise.

 

[Crimson King]

Should start a new thread and make a poll: top 4, 5-8, 9-12, bottom 4.

This is a really hard season to pick. We are defintely on the way up but because of our draw it may not necessarily reflect that. Traditionally we are at the point in the cycle where we turn Subi into a fortress but still lose most away. We play top teams at home making it harder to turn Subi into a fortress and we play the crap teams where we play outrageously bad football.

Could go either way. We could turn Subi into a fortress beating many top teams and then winning against some easybeats away and end up 5 or 6. Or it could go the other way and we end up bottom. Or it could even out.
Anwhere between 5 and 13.I tip 10th.

I also tip a lot of blouses on this board to lose their bundle if we go 10th or lower. Some people just can't see that in rebuild phase the ladder is not necessarily a gauge as to how we are progressing. It was only last year that most on here were crying like bitches as if the sky was falling in and that Woosha should be sacked. Now we have Naita, Swift, and Shuey these same people are talking it up. I wonder if they will twig next cycle and keep cool rather than having tantrums.

Agreed. Here are Woosha's thoughts:

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/sport/a/-/afl/6831453/wiser-woosha-says-finals-within-reach/

Do you feel like you are in a good position. You are a realistic shot at making the eight, but will it be OK if you don't, provided the right players play well and show they have developed from last season?

There are two goals in 2010. How good would it be to make the eight. But the other one is when is a premiership coming. Provided people can see you are working towards that. What is the bigger reward, ninth in 2010 and a premiership in 2013 or eighth in 2010 and a premiership in 2015. To get eighth you maybe slow your development down, play some senior players. We are very conscious of both targets. One of building a team that is going to get into the top four as quickly as possible, which therefore means you are challenging for a premiership. But also to improve in 2010 and try to play in the finals because that is also a great learning curve.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/sport/a/-/afl/6831453/wiser-woosha-says-finals-within-reach/

FWIW, I think we can finish 8th. If we can do this by getting maximum amount of games into the draftees from 2007/08/09, then that will be perfect.

 

[The Falcon Strike]

I think where the votes are - is about where we will finish.

I voted 8th - which i think we can snag. I think our derbies this year will be important to that outcome. We get 12 games at Subi each year - and I reckon we'll need to win 8/9 of those to make the finals and giving up 2 to Freo makes that quite difficult

 

[Quinz]

We will be in a group that is pushing for the last few spots in the 8. I think it's going to be a very close season.

 

[bunsen burner]

Bunsen, in our defence....we're no Fremantle and there still is a core of goodness from the 06 Premiership year in Cox, Kerr, Glass, Embley, Hansen, Lynch, Selwood and Butler. Throw in Naita, Shuey, Masten, Kennedy, LeCras and Ebert we have a formula that will surprise.

Certainly possible, but the big thing for me is how we have traditinally adhered to a cycle. We play shit way right up until we are just about to win a flag. Winning away consistently is always the last piece of our flag contender jigsaw. It would really buck the trend if we won regularly away from home - but of course possible considering the shiteful teams we play away.
We have tonnes of raw talent but I don't think we will be able to compete with similarly talented players but with years of experience. We will probably claim 2-3 really good scalps at home but will underperform in other areas.
I lean towards inconsistency this year. Games where we slay them and other games when we are scratching our heads at our mistakes and lack of mental toughness.
Even if we do surprise and go as high as 4 or 5 we'll have a hump to get over in 2011. Will be an interesting year because anything could happen.

 

[HollyLovesWCE]

Between 7th and 9th. So I voted 8th spot.

 

[Ted38]

I don't believe that 6th spot is beyond us.

 

[HollyLovesWCE]

Yeah I agree, 6th is gettable just but then again I honestly can't see any of last years top 6 giving up a spot. Can you?

Saints
Geelong
Bulldogs
Collingwood
Adelaide
and Brisbane
Then throw the Hawks in that mix too.

We're headed in the right direction, but we're quite at that level yet imo. Give it another year or 2.

 

[joeyavalanche]

Yeah I agree, 6th is gettable just but then again I honestly can't see any of last years top 6 giving up a spot. Can you?

Saints
Geelong
Bulldogs
Collingwood
Adelaide
and Brisbane
Then throw the Hawks in that mix too.

We're headed in the right direction, but we're quite at that level yet imo. Give it another year or 2.

Those above teams are all clearly better than us at this stage.
As for everyone else in the race, Essendon, Carlton, Sydney etc,
i think we'll be close to beating them all this year as if not, look like we are only a few things clicking into place off wiping the floor with them.

 

[wce4premiership]

I voted for seventh. Being very optimistic but i think that the best we could do this year with people still developing.

From 7th - 10th would be within my expectations.