Preview QF2 Geelong v Port Adelaide Thursday Sept 5 2024 @ AO 7:40 pm

[catempire]

The thought of leaving SDK out or as a sub in this Geelong side, so bereft of talent, is simply preposterous. He would be our best key defender, best ruck, and probably even best second tall forward option. And a useful winger.

But Scott has a habit of making ludicrous selections in week one of finals when he has too much time to think, so you probably can’t completely rule him out being sub.

It’s a weird situation. His talent is undeniable but his form has been underwhelming for large stretches of 2023-24. Now we find ourselves with him out of the team and the two roles he is best suited to occupied by players in good form. To upset either those form lines or structures by shoe-horning him in seems risky for a final.

Which is why I found myself seeing him as sub. Gives you the option value without any of the problems described above.

 

[Johanpetro]

It’s a weird situation. His talent is undeniable but his form has been underwhelming for large stretches of 2023-24. Now we find ourselves with him out of the team and the two roles he is best suited to occupied by players in good form. To upset either those form lines or structures by shoe-horning him in seems risky for a final.

Which is why I found myself seeing him as sub. Gives you the option value without any of the problems described above

Ugh I couldn’t think of many worse sub options in the league than SDK!

 

[Cataholic]

It’s a weird situation. His talent is undeniable but his form has been underwhelming for large stretches of 2023-24. Now we find ourselves with him out of the team and the two roles he is best suited to occupied by players in good form. To upset either those form lines or structures by shoe-horning him in seems risky for a final.

Which is why I found myself seeing him as sub. Gives you the option value without any of the problems described above.

Well articulated.

Pretty much how I see it too.....though the idea of being a sub - and I get your point - leaves me lukewarm.

 

[Lana]

Finally gone through the model I was using for the last few years to rate players perforance relative to position, oppenent, exposure the inside midfield rotations and gametime.

Comparing the relative ranking, it is currently for the full season, if I have time, I'd adjust it since our run after the Carlton game, with Hawkins going down, and us putting in Manaugh and Humphries in, our year completely turned around. The KPD output by the opponent shifted considerably.

The result match the perception I had, we have the best performing outside players in the competition, from rebounding defenders all the way to our small forwards. In this area, Port will be missing their two highest efficent rebounding defenders.

The rankings have an overall bias against pure defensive players, which is why we rank poorly in the Key Defender grouping, we don't have that dominant intercept KPD that some teams do.

Our Key Forward relative ranking is low as other team's KPD efficency is ranked 3rd, Cameron's efficency in near top of the league, but all of our our mainstay KPF are below average. This matches the sight test from earlier in the season, when other teams were taking avantage of Hawkins' lack of mobility and O.Henry was through his body around like a cannonball trying to compete against guys with too much size. Hawkin's drop off was astounding he was pernially one of the most efficent KPF for the last 5 years even to last year. Key forwards tend to do poorly against Port relative to expectations, don't know why.

Both teams have weak ruck divisions.

Their main advatnage is in the inside midfield rotations. Dangerfield efficiency is still at elite levels. Holmes is our best player as an inside midfilder but he is also our best rebounding defender. Stewarts bang on average by position which, is good, we had some poor performers running through there.

Output​	Inside Midfield​	KEY_DEFENDER​	KEY_FORWARD​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	Outside Midfield​	RUCK​
Geelong Cats​	11​	13​	6​	1​	1​	4​	15​
Port Adelaide​	6​	16​	9​	5​	14​	5​	17​

Opponent output​	Inside Midfield​	KEY_DEFENDER​	KEY_FORWARD​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	Outside Midfield​	RUCK​
Geelong Cats​	10​	4​	6​	12​	8​	5​	2​
Port Adelaide​	15​	15​	17​	15​	11​	15​	6​

Relative with forward compared to oppenents defenders etc, rucks against rucks

Relative​	Inside Midfield​	KEY_DEFENDER​	KEY_FORWARD​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	Outside Midfield​	RUCK​
Geelong Cats​	10​	16​	11​	2​	1​	6​	16​
Port Adelaide​	4​	8​	7​	8​	12​	3​	17​

Relative ranking since round 16

Relative​	Inside Midfield​	KEY_DEFENDER​	KEY_FORWARD​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	Outside Midfield​	RUCK​
Geelong Cats​	7​	10​	6​	3​	2​	8​	13​
Port Adelaide​	4​	5​	7​	2​	10​	1​	17​

Some of the guys we introduced into team post the Carlton loss change how we play completely

Shuan Mannagh is rated 2nd in the competition for Non-Key forwards, this is probably somewhat skewed by him playing at time as an extra midfielder at around the ground stoppages without appearing in centre bounces. But by raw efficency he matching Dylan Moore

13

Dylan Moore

Age

25

Ht

177cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.9

3star

K

5.1

2star

HB

6.7

4star

M

4.4

4star

T

2.9

4star

G

0.3

3star

No current season stats available

D

12.2

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

.

Humphries is 9th by rebounding defenders in the competition, players his position have no problem accumulating the ball. His stand out attribute is how few mistakes he makes, the model punishes turnovers heavily.

Stewart is bang on the middle for midfielders, but he doesn't play the role conventionally. What is more important is that We've had a bunch of really poor performing players flow through there. Clark, Guthrie at a near VFL replacement level.
O'Connor and Blicavs who filled out the rotations for a few games were a bit better but no where near the standard.

player.surname	value	Games	Average time on ground	CB attedance rate
Holmes	1.33	10	77	73
Dangerfield	1.21	14	71	95
Bowes	1.11	15	67	73
Parfitt	1.1	9	63	86
Stewart	0.98	9	72	93
Bruhn	0.9	15	61	95
Atkins	0.89	17	67	88
Blicavs	0.77	11	83	70
O'Connor	0.72	4	62	62
Guthrie	0.67	3	52	95
Clark	0.64	11	57	81

Atkins and Bruhn are below overage but not poor performers for guys who are filling out the rotation. The model loves Parfitt, (low gametime, + high tackle count + high clearance number, oddly it liked his Carlton game, it must have really liked his score involvements) If any of the clubs are focusing on data driven recruitment, he'll be picked up. From an attribute perspective he doesn't fit our team. One of flaws of a generalist model on individual perforance, in mutliple press conferences this year Scott at times this year has talked about 2nd order effect that aren't always captured in the stats (cleareances, CP etc).

Our Key Forwards, offensively other than Cameron have been really meh, interstingly enough 4 of the top 10 rated games this year by KPF have been done by Geelong players.

player.surname	value	Games	Average time on ground
Cameron	1.47	22	96
Rohan	0.99	12	62
Hawkins	0.91	12	87
Henry	0.89	21	78
Neale	0.88	11	80

I don't think last table captures the full story. Overall the opponents' KPD have had a high scoring fest. But if we dial to the pre Carlton loss and post Carlton loss

Geelong Cats​	Our KPF​	Opponent KPD​	Ratio​
Round 0 to 15​	0.09424​	0.10975​	0.85871​
Round 16 to 24​	0.10205​	0.10298​	0.99094​
change​	8.3​	-6.2​	15.4​

Might not look like much but it changes our KPF forwards output from 11th to 6th

Lastly ruckmen

Stanley's perfromance this year is awful, he is barely above VFL replacement, I think we have to back him in this week.
His last Port game almost ended his career. His motivation should be through the roof.

De Koning's stats are skewed by his first game which was the 10th highest scoring game recorded by a ruckman, unfortunatly his brother's game was the highest game by a ruckman this year. Its a bit of a theme with De Koning he scores well but his opponent does too.

 

[catempire]

Ugh I couldn’t think of many worse sub options in the league than SDK!

You’re thinking about it in the wrong way then.

 

[cats_09]

Ugh I couldn’t think of many worse sub options in the league than SDK!

Tom Hawkins

And he's genuinely been suggested across both here and socials as "the best sub for finals"

 

[Cataholic]

Tom Hawkins

And he's genuinely been suggested across both here and socials as "the best sub for finals"

No thanks!!!!

 

[Baudolino]

Finally gone through the model I was using for the last few years to rate players perforance relative to position, oppenent, exposure the inside midfield rotations and gametime.

Comparing the relative ranking, it is currently for the full season, if I have time, I'd adjust it since our run after the Carlton game, with Hawkins going down, and us putting in Manaugh and Humphries in, our year completely turned around. The KPD output by the opponent shifted considerably.

The result match the perception I had, we have the best performing outside players in the competition, from rebounding defenders all the way to our small forwards. In this area, Port will be missing their two highest efficent rebounding defenders.

The rankings have an overall bias against pure defensive players, which is why we rank poorly in the Key Defender grouping, we don't have that dominant intercept KPD that some teams do.

Our Key Forward relative ranking is low as other team's KPD efficency is ranked 3rd, Cameron's efficency in near top of the league, but all of our our mainstay KPF are below average. This matches the sight test from earlier in the season, when other teams were taking avantage of Hawkins' lack of mobility and O.Henry was through his body around like a cannonball trying to compete against guys with too much size. Hawkin's drop off was astounding he was pernially one of the most efficent KPF for the last 5 years even to last year. Key forwards tend to do poorly against Port relative to expectations, don't know why.

Both teams have weak ruck divisions.

Their main advatnage is in the inside midfield rotations. Dangerfield efficiency is still at elite levels. Holmes is our best player as an inside midfilder but he is also our best rebounding defender. Stewarts bang on average by position which, is good, we had some poor performers running through there.

Output​	Inside Midfield​	KEY_DEFENDER​	KEY_FORWARD​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	Outside Midfield​	RUCK​
Geelong Cats​	11​	13​	6​	1​	1​	4​	15​
Port Adelaide​	6​	16​	9​	5​	14​	5​	17​

Opponent output​	Inside Midfield​	KEY_DEFENDER​	KEY_FORWARD​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	Outside Midfield​	RUCK​
Geelong Cats​	10​	4​	6​	12​	8​	5​	2​
Port Adelaide​	15​	15​	17​	15​	11​	15​	6​

Relative with forward compared to oppenents defenders etc, rucks against rucks

Relative​	Inside Midfield​	KEY_DEFENDER​	KEY_FORWARD​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	Outside Midfield​	RUCK​
Geelong Cats​	10​	16​	11​	2​	1​	6​	16​
Port Adelaide​	4​	8​	7​	8​	12​	3​	17​

Relative ranking since round 16

Relative​	Inside Midfield​	KEY_DEFENDER​	KEY_FORWARD​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	Outside Midfield​	RUCK​
Geelong Cats​	7​	10​	6​	3​	2​	8​	13​
Port Adelaide​	4​	5​	7​	2​	10​	1​	17​

Some of the guys we introduced into team post the Carlton loss change how we play completely

Shuan Mannagh is rated 2nd in the competition for Non-Key forwards, this is probably somewhat skewed by him playing at time as an extra midfielder at around the ground stoppages without appearing in centre bounces. But by raw efficency he matching Dylan Moore.

Humphries is 9th by rebounding defenders in the competition, players his position have no problem accumulating the ball. His stand out attribute is how few mistakes he makes, the model punishes turnovers heavily.

Stewart is bang on the middle for midfielders, but he doesn't play the role conventionally. What is more important is that We've had a bunch of really poor performing players flow through there. Clark, Guthrie at a near VFL replacement level.
O'Connor and Blicavs who filled out the rotations for a few games were a bit better but no where near the standard.

player.surname	value	Games	Average time on ground	CB attedance rate
Holmes	1.33	10	77	73
Dangerfield	1.21	14	71	95
Bowes	1.11	15	67	73
Parfitt	1.1	9	63	86
Stewart	0.98	9	72	93
Bruhn	0.9	15	61	95
Atkins	0.89	17	67	88
Blicavs	0.77	11	83	70
O'Connor	0.72	4	62	62
Guthrie	0.67	3	52	95
Clark	0.64	11	57	81

Atkins and Bruhn are below overage but not poor performers for guys who are filling out the rotation. The model loves Parfitt, (low gametime, + high tackle count + high clearance number, oddly it liked his Carlton game, it must have really liked his score involvements) If any of the clubs are focusing on data driven recruitment, he'll be picked up. From an attribute perspective he doesn't fit our team. One of flaws of a generalist model on individual perforance, in mutliple press conferences this year Scott at times this year has talked about 2nd order effect that aren't always captured in the stats (cleareances, CP etc).

Our Key Forwards, offensively other than Cameron have been really meh, interstingly enough 4 of the top 10 rated games this year by KPF have been done by Geelong players.

player.surname	value	Games	Average time on ground
Cameron	1.47	22	96
Rohan	0.99	12	62
Hawkins	0.91	12	87
Henry	0.89	21	78
Neale	0.88	11	80

I don't think last table captures the full story. Overall the opponents' KPD have had a high scoring fest. But if we dial to the pre Carlton loss and post Carlton loss

Geelong Cats​	Our KPF​	Opponent KPD​	Ratio​
Round 0 to 15​	0.09424​	0.10975​	0.85871​
Round 16 to 24​	0.10205​	0.10298​	0.99094​
change​	8.3​	-6.2​	15.4​

Might not look like much but it changes our KPF forwards output from 11th to 6th

Lastly ruckmen

Stanley's perfromance this year is awful, he is barely above VFL replacement, I think we have to back him in this week.
His last Port game almost ended his career. His motivation should be through the roof.

De Koning's stats are skewed by his first game which was the 10th highest scoring game recorded by a ruckman, unfortunatly his brother's game was the highest game by a ruckman this year. Its a bit of a theme with De Koning he scores well but his opponent does too.

Possibly a dumb question, but what does "efficiency" mean in the context of this model? I'm assuming you're not referring to disposal efficiency or anything like that.

 

[Lana]

Possibly a dumb question, but what does "efficiency" mean in the context of this model? I'm assuming you're not referring to disposal efficiency or anything like that.

So a player has an expected output for their position on the ground per unit of game time, affected by opponent difficulty.

Efficiency in terms of efficient use of game time. So actual performance/expected performance.

An extreme example would be someone being subbed in for the last 15 minutes of game time and then kicking two goals.

 

[supahoops]

Tom Stewart to Willie Rioli

15

Willie Rioli

Age

29

Ht

175cm

Wt

78kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.0

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.8

4star

G

1.2

4star

No current season stats available

D

11.0

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

3.6

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.6

3star

..? Can play off, eliminates the tag and still give us some drive out of the back half I don’t think Willie would be the hardest working and disciplined running both ways.

 

[CatsDoItBetter]

Agree with others on Dekoning that his two spots in the team key back and ruck are atm needing to be occupied by Blicavs and Stanley.
It’s hard to see where Dekoning fits in the team, I wouldn’t have a tall as the sub. I wouldn’t mind him as the second ruck also spending time forward, I think that’s where he can be of most benefit to the team atm. But Neale should already be playing that role although for some reason he hasn’t rucked for a long time. Not sure if want Neale Dekoning Cameron and Henry all in the forward line.
But it’s the same across all lines he feels like a tall too many.
The backline looks much better with Blicavs back there and Henry back in form.

 

[Pollywaffle]

Tom Stewart to Willie Rioli..? Can play off, eliminates the tag and still give us some drive out of the back half I don’t think Willie would be the hardest working and disciplined running both ways.

Willie probably needs a closer check than Stewart usually provides. He can turn a game with a couple of possessions. Another one of their brigade of confidence players who needs to be squashed early.

 

[cats_09]

It’s a weird situation. His talent is undeniable but his form has been underwhelming for large stretches of 2023-24. Now we find ourselves with him out of the team and the two roles he is best suited to occupied by players in good form. To upset either those form lines or structures by shoe-horning him in seems risky for a final.

Which is why I found myself seeing him as sub. Gives you the option value without any of the problems described above.

"Absence makes the heart grow fonder"

I swear that if we read reviews if Sam's games this season through to the second Carlton match, that we'd find a good number calling for him to be dropped to the VFL as his form had been indifferent

The coaches made the call to throw him in the ruck for a few weeks, which did seem to help him rediscover some form - but there was also questions about that move, the risk of impact on our defence, don't want him hurt etc

Stanley makes his return to the team against Adelaide, and while it may not have been his best match, his next 3 have been 3 of his best since our premiership year. The same match Sam returns to defence & it's when his knee gave him problems - so interestingly, his main injury issues of recent seasons have come when playing as a defender, not so much in the ruck

Then in Sam's absence from defence, we've seen Blicavs return to his old haunting ground and looking the most solid he has all season - plus, we've seen some of the best football this season from J. Henry and Kolodjashnij had continued his solid season


So it wasn't that long ago that he's form was being questioned, but now he's been absent for a few weeks that seems to have been forgotten - if we're simply listing a best 22 he definitely in that, but the question right now is where he fits structure wise, because as you said the two obvious roles are currently occupied by players who've hit form

Sub is an option and the same thinking is why I could see Blicavs as sub if they want to have Sam return to the backline, and the latter offers maybe slightly more versatility in that role

 

[catempire]

Sub is an option and the same thinking is why I could see Blicavs as sub if they want to have Sam return to the backline, and the latter offers maybe slightly more versatility in that role

Not sure I agree that Blicavs is any more versatile but even so, once you activate the sub you can shuffle the magnets to get the best combo. People seem to assume you leave 17 spots locked in and the sub must be like for like in place of whoever is subbed out. Just not so. For example:

• Stanley tanks, sub him off and DK rucks
• Blicavs rolls his ankle, sub him off and DK goes to FB
• Bruhn is concussed, Blicavs moves mid and DK goes to FB

DK sub gives quite a bit of flexibility in sub options, as does a mid or other type of multi-positional player as you can move things around to keep balance.

 

[Mr Meow]

Keep scraping the barrel.

Their points stand up though so this nothing reply is a fairly meek concession.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Finally gone through the model I was using for the last few years to rate players perforance relative to position, oppenent, exposure the inside midfield rotations and gametime.

Comparing the relative ranking, it is currently for the full season, if I have time, I'd adjust it since our run after the Carlton game, with Hawkins going down, and us putting in Manaugh and Humphries in, our year completely turned around. The KPD output by the opponent shifted considerably.

The result match the perception I had, we have the best performing outside players in the competition, from rebounding defenders all the way to our small forwards. In this area, Port will be missing their two highest efficent rebounding defenders.

The rankings have an overall bias against pure defensive players, which is why we rank poorly in the Key Defender grouping, we don't have that dominant intercept KPD that some teams do.

Our Key Forward relative ranking is low as other team's KPD efficency is ranked 3rd, Cameron's efficency in near top of the league, but all of our our mainstay KPF are below average. This matches the sight test from earlier in the season, when other teams were taking avantage of Hawkins' lack of mobility and O.Henry was through his body around like a cannonball trying to compete against guys with too much size. Hawkin's drop off was astounding he was pernially one of the most efficent KPF for the last 5 years even to last year. Key forwards tend to do poorly against Port relative to expectations, don't know why.

Both teams have weak ruck divisions.

Their main advatnage is in the inside midfield rotations. Dangerfield efficiency is still at elite levels. Holmes is our best player as an inside midfilder but he is also our best rebounding defender. Stewarts bang on average by position which, is good, we had some poor performers running through there.

Output​	Inside Midfield​	KEY_DEFENDER​	KEY_FORWARD​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	Outside Midfield​	RUCK​
Geelong Cats​	11​	13​	6​	1​	1​	4​	15​
Port Adelaide​	6​	16​	9​	5​	14​	5​	17​

Opponent output​	Inside Midfield​	KEY_DEFENDER​	KEY_FORWARD​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	Outside Midfield​	RUCK​
Geelong Cats​	10​	4​	6​	12​	8​	5​	2​
Port Adelaide​	15​	15​	17​	15​	11​	15​	6​

Relative with forward compared to oppenents defenders etc, rucks against rucks

Relative​	Inside Midfield​	KEY_DEFENDER​	KEY_FORWARD​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	Outside Midfield​	RUCK​
Geelong Cats​	10​	16​	11​	2​	1​	6​	16​
Port Adelaide​	4​	8​	7​	8​	12​	3​	17​

Relative ranking since round 16

Relative​	Inside Midfield​	KEY_DEFENDER​	KEY_FORWARD​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	Outside Midfield​	RUCK​
Geelong Cats​	7​	10​	6​	3​	2​	8​	13​
Port Adelaide​	4​	5​	7​	2​	10​	1​	17​

Some of the guys we introduced into team post the Carlton loss change how we play completely

Shuan Mannagh is rated 2nd in the competition for Non-Key forwards, this is probably somewhat skewed by him playing at time as an extra midfielder at around the ground stoppages without appearing in centre bounces. But by raw efficency he matching Dylan Moore.

Humphries is 9th by rebounding defenders in the competition, players his position have no problem accumulating the ball. His stand out attribute is how few mistakes he makes, the model punishes turnovers heavily.

Stewart is bang on the middle for midfielders, but he doesn't play the role conventionally. What is more important is that We've had a bunch of really poor performing players flow through there. Clark, Guthrie at a near VFL replacement level.
O'Connor and Blicavs who filled out the rotations for a few games were a bit better but no where near the standard.

player.surname	value	Games	Average time on ground	CB attedance rate
Holmes	1.33	10	77	73
Dangerfield	1.21	14	71	95
Bowes	1.11	15	67	73
Parfitt	1.1	9	63	86
Stewart	0.98	9	72	93
Bruhn	0.9	15	61	95
Atkins	0.89	17	67	88
Blicavs	0.77	11	83	70
O'Connor	0.72	4	62	62
Guthrie	0.67	3	52	95
Clark	0.64	11	57	81

Atkins and Bruhn are below overage but not poor performers for guys who are filling out the rotation. The model loves Parfitt, (low gametime, + high tackle count + high clearance number, oddly it liked his Carlton game, it must have really liked his score involvements) If any of the clubs are focusing on data driven recruitment, he'll be picked up. From an attribute perspective he doesn't fit our team. One of flaws of a generalist model on individual perforance, in mutliple press conferences this year Scott at times this year has talked about 2nd order effect that aren't always captured in the stats (cleareances, CP etc).

Our Key Forwards, offensively other than Cameron have been really meh, interstingly enough 4 of the top 10 rated games this year by KPF have been done by Geelong players.

player.surname	value	Games	Average time on ground
Cameron	1.47	22	96
Rohan	0.99	12	62
Hawkins	0.91	12	87
Henry	0.89	21	78
Neale	0.88	11	80

I don't think last table captures the full story. Overall the opponents' KPD have had a high scoring fest. But if we dial to the pre Carlton loss and post Carlton loss

Geelong Cats​	Our KPF​	Opponent KPD​	Ratio​
Round 0 to 15​	0.09424​	0.10975​	0.85871​
Round 16 to 24​	0.10205​	0.10298​	0.99094​
change​	8.3​	-6.2​	15.4​

Might not look like much but it changes our KPF forwards output from 11th to 6th

Lastly ruckmen

Stanley's perfromance this year is awful, he is barely above VFL replacement, I think we have to back him in this week.
His last Port game almost ended his career. His motivation should be through the roof.

De Koning's stats are skewed by his first game which was the 10th highest scoring game recorded by a ruckman, unfortunatly his brother's game was the highest game by a ruckman this year. Its a bit of a theme with De Koning he scores well but his opponent does too.

Awesome research. Those are great stats that need more delving.

On the stanley/sdk thing it is interesting the last port game almost ended him although i think him being hooked was less about his performance and more the match situation.
On sdk he will have good stat games around the ground because he gets lots of general play ball.
The question is whether he can stop the oppo ruck being dominant with their mids at 6-6-6 as thats one of our achilles heels (danger back does help but hes 34). I tend to think sdk could be a very good ruck if well developed but all we should be focusing on this week is what our best option is to limit MF bleeding goals so we can win a flag in the next 3 weeks-and in that context stanley is probably the safer option.

I think mannagh is a crucial inclusion from last time to now one because of his efficiency and two pressure acts. The reality is port probably will beat us for 1st possession at clearances but if we can force enough post clearance turnovers we have better outside players than them (particularly with houston and farrell out) that we can generate efficient i50 ball to put their defense under pressure-some of their defenders are very suspect. Thats our best path to winning.

 

[Play it Sam]

Finally gone through the model I was using for the last few years to rate players perforance relative to position, oppenent, exposure the inside midfield rotations and gametime.

Comparing the relative ranking, it is currently for the full season, if I have time, I'd adjust it since our run after the Carlton game, with Hawkins going down, and us putting in Manaugh and Humphries in, our year completely turned around. The KPD output by the opponent shifted considerably.

The result match the perception I had, we have the best performing outside players in the competition, from rebounding defenders all the way to our small forwards. In this area, Port will be missing their two highest efficent rebounding defenders.

The rankings have an overall bias against pure defensive players, which is why we rank poorly in the Key Defender grouping, we don't have that dominant intercept KPD that some teams do.

Our Key Forward relative ranking is low as other team's KPD efficency is ranked 3rd, Cameron's efficency in near top of the league, but all of our our mainstay KPF are below average. This matches the sight test from earlier in the season, when other teams were taking avantage of Hawkins' lack of mobility and O.Henry was through his body around like a cannonball trying to compete against guys with too much size. Hawkin's drop off was astounding he was pernially one of the most efficent KPF for the last 5 years even to last year. Key forwards tend to do poorly against Port relative to expectations, don't know why.

Both teams have weak ruck divisions.

Their main advatnage is in the inside midfield rotations. Dangerfield efficiency is still at elite levels. Holmes is our best player as an inside midfilder but he is also our best rebounding defender. Stewarts bang on average by position which, is good, we had some poor performers running through there.

Output​	Inside Midfield​	KEY_DEFENDER​	KEY_FORWARD​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	Outside Midfield​	RUCK​
Geelong Cats​	11​	13​	6​	1​	1​	4​	15​
Port Adelaide​	6​	16​	9​	5​	14​	5​	17​

Opponent output​	Inside Midfield​	KEY_DEFENDER​	KEY_FORWARD​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	Outside Midfield​	RUCK​
Geelong Cats​	10​	4​	6​	12​	8​	5​	2​
Port Adelaide​	15​	15​	17​	15​	11​	15​	6​

Relative with forward compared to oppenents defenders etc, rucks against rucks

Relative​	Inside Midfield​	KEY_DEFENDER​	KEY_FORWARD​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	Outside Midfield​	RUCK​
Geelong Cats​	10​	16​	11​	2​	1​	6​	16​
Port Adelaide​	4​	8​	7​	8​	12​	3​	17​

Relative ranking since round 16

Relative​	Inside Midfield​	KEY_DEFENDER​	KEY_FORWARD​	MEDIUM_DEFENDER​	MEDIUM_FORWARD​	Outside Midfield​	RUCK​
Geelong Cats​	7​	10​	6​	3​	2​	8​	13​
Port Adelaide​	4​	5​	7​	2​	10​	1​	17​

Some of the guys we introduced into team post the Carlton loss change how we play completely

Shuan Mannagh is rated 2nd in the competition for Non-Key forwards, this is probably somewhat skewed by him playing at time as an extra midfielder at around the ground stoppages without appearing in centre bounces. But by raw efficency he matching Dylan Moore.

Humphries is 9th by rebounding defenders in the competition, players his position have no problem accumulating the ball. His stand out attribute is how few mistakes he makes, the model punishes turnovers heavily.

Stewart is bang on the middle for midfielders, but he doesn't play the role conventionally. What is more important is that We've had a bunch of really poor performing players flow through there. Clark, Guthrie at a near VFL replacement level.
O'Connor and Blicavs who filled out the rotations for a few games were a bit better but no where near the standard.

player.surname	value	Games	Average time on ground	CB attedance rate
Holmes	1.33	10	77	73
Dangerfield	1.21	14	71	95
Bowes	1.11	15	67	73
Parfitt	1.1	9	63	86
Stewart	0.98	9	72	93
Bruhn	0.9	15	61	95
Atkins	0.89	17	67	88
Blicavs	0.77	11	83	70
O'Connor	0.72	4	62	62
Guthrie	0.67	3	52	95
Clark	0.64	11	57	81

Atkins and Bruhn are below overage but not poor performers for guys who are filling out the rotation. The model loves Parfitt, (low gametime, + high tackle count + high clearance number, oddly it liked his Carlton game, it must have really liked his score involvements) If any of the clubs are focusing on data driven recruitment, he'll be picked up. From an attribute perspective he doesn't fit our team. One of flaws of a generalist model on individual perforance, in mutliple press conferences this year Scott at times this year has talked about 2nd order effect that aren't always captured in the stats (cleareances, CP etc).

Our Key Forwards, offensively other than Cameron have been really meh, interstingly enough 4 of the top 10 rated games this year by KPF have been done by Geelong players.

player.surname	value	Games	Average time on ground
Cameron	1.47	22	96
Rohan	0.99	12	62
Hawkins	0.91	12	87
Henry	0.89	21	78
Neale	0.88	11	80

I don't think last table captures the full story. Overall the opponents' KPD have had a high scoring fest. But if we dial to the pre Carlton loss and post Carlton loss

Geelong Cats​	Our KPF​	Opponent KPD​	Ratio​
Round 0 to 15​	0.09424​	0.10975​	0.85871​
Round 16 to 24​	0.10205​	0.10298​	0.99094​
change​	8.3​	-6.2​	15.4​

Might not look like much but it changes our KPF forwards output from 11th to 6th

Lastly ruckmen

Stanley's perfromance this year is awful, he is barely above VFL replacement, I think we have to back him in this week.
His last Port game almost ended his career. His motivation should be through the roof.

De Koning's stats are skewed by his first game which was the 10th highest scoring game recorded by a ruckman, unfortunatly his brother's game was the highest game by a ruckman this year. Its a bit of a theme with De Koning he scores well but his opponent does too.

Thanks for sharing- Fantastic work. Worthy of a PHD, or at least a seat in the box.

From your final comments; Makes me think SDK might nullify at worst, and good Stanley front up again.
Also, how lucky are we to even have the good cattle to choose from, given last year's injury ridden flop?

 

[Chinacats]

A bit of bereft of talent and this is our worse top 4 team of recent times….talk . I’m not buying into it…..
I remember Grant Thomas said that tigers cup year of 2017 was the least talented list/ worst group of players ever to win a cup. Well some of the players went on to win another two and become champions of the club. Some of our young players will be club champions, so this is the time to get it done.

 

[And_ROOS]

I think if we had two or three top line midfielders we would be the best team in the comp.

But I'm happy/allowed to be delusional hehe

Even 2022 Guthrie into this team makes a huge difference, its a real shame he can't get on the park.

2 quality mids into this line up and we wouldn't have had that mid season horror run and would be comfy top 2.

Tom Hawkins

And he's genuinely been suggested across both here and socials as "the best sub for finals"

The best options for the sub are ALWAYS midfielders or athletic/pacey defenders. I think if you went back through all the games where the sub turned the match into a teams favour majority of the time its a midfielder or a defender with pace.

When was the last time a KPF was a sub for anyone?

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Even 2022 Guthrie into this team makes a huge difference, its a real shame he can't get on the park.

2 quality mids into this line up and we wouldn't have had that mid season horror run and would be comfy top 2.


The best options for the sub are ALWAYS midfielders or athletic/pacey defenders. I think if you went back through all the games where the sub turned the match into a teams favour majority of the time its a midfielder or a defender with pace.

When was the last time a KPF was a sub for anyone?

Thilthorpe this year but was coming back from injury.

 

[moond0g]

Keep scraping the barrel.

Ok so you don’t have an answer. Should have just said so.

 

[Play it Sam]

Awesome research. Those are great stats that need more delving.

On the stanley/sdk thing it is interesting the last port game almost ended him although i think him being hooked was less about his performance and more the match situation.
On sdk he will have good stat games around the ground because he gets lots of general play ball.
The question is whether he can stop the oppo ruck being dominant with their mids at 6-6-6 as thats one of our achilles heels (danger back does help but hes 34). I tend to think sdk could be a very good ruck if well developed but all we should be focusing on this week is what our best option is to limit MF bleeding goals so we can win a flag in the next 3 weeks-and in that context stanley is probably the safer option.

I think mannagh is a crucial inclusion from last time to now one because of his efficiency and two pressure acts. The reality is port probably will beat us for 1st possession at clearances but if we can force enough post clearance turnovers we have better outside players than them (particularly with houston and farrell out) that we can generate efficient i50 ball to put their defense under pressure-some of their defenders are very suspect. Thats our best path to winning.

Totally agree, they trashed us motherless in contested ball for 2 and a half quarters. Mannagh's strength over the ball will be a shock to them, and Bruhn seems to be finding good form, with Bowes busy. Danger in a mad mood is expected. I expect Scott will put heaps of work into the defence area, but they will be comparatively helped by our much stronger midfield than last meet up. Despite their midfield stars, Port have been known to fail and might be caught off balance.
Here's hoping, but I'm confident. We need a good start, tons of pressure then put the foot on their throat.

 

[lettheboysplay]

It’s a weird situation. His talent is undeniable but his form has been underwhelming for large stretches of 2023-24. Now we find ourselves with him out of the team and the two roles he is best suited to occupied by players in good form. To upset either those form lines or structures by shoe-horning him in seems risky for a final.

Which is why I found myself seeing him as sub. Gives you the option value without any of the problems described above.

He's playing - let's not tie ourselves in knots over this. We are not a tall side, Stanley's body is susceptible to breakdowns and while we have Blitz, I would just love for him to be able to play a role without forcing him to fill gaps. I feel it has affected his form throughout this year's campaign.

 

[cats_09]

Even 2022 Guthrie into this team makes a huge difference, its a real shame he can't get on the park.

2 quality mids into this line up and we wouldn't have had that mid season horror run and would be comfy top 2.


The best options for the sub are ALWAYS midfielders or athletic/pacey defenders. I think if you went back through all the games where the sub turned the match into a teams favour majority of the time its a midfielder or a defender with pace.

When was the last time a KPF was a sub for anyone?

Brisbane has used Darcy Fort as their starting sub on 5 occasions - though none this year

 

[lettheboysplay]

Do we think Jhye has been written off for the finals campaign barring injury to Tak, Bruhn or Bowes? He'd be a good sub with run and ferocity.

I get the feeling the coaching staff have told him that his priority is preseason to cement his spot for 2025.