- Aug 18, 2018
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- AFL Club
- Geelong
100% agreeI think if we had two or three top line midfielders we would be the best team in the comp.
But I'm happy/allowed to be delusional hehe
We have one weakness and it's a doozy
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100% agreeI think if we had two or three top line midfielders we would be the best team in the comp.
But I'm happy/allowed to be delusional hehe
I agree Blitz would make a great sub. Can play any position."Absence makes the heart grow fonder"
I swear that if we read reviews if Sam's games this season through to the second Carlton match, that we'd find a good number calling for him to be dropped to the VFL as his form had been indifferent
The coaches made the call to throw him in the ruck for a few weeks, which did seem to help him rediscover some form - but there was also questions about that move, the risk of impact on our defence, don't want him hurt etc
Stanley makes his return to the team against Adelaide, and while it may not have been his best match, his next 3 have been 3 of his best since our premiership year. The same match Sam returns to defence & it's when his knee gave him problems - so interestingly, his main injury issues of recent seasons have come when playing as a defender, not so much in the ruck
Then in Sam's absence from defence, we've seen Blicavs return to his old haunting ground and looking the most solid he has all season - plus, we've seen some of the best football this season from J. Henry and Kolodjashnij had continued his solid season
So it wasn't that long ago that he's form was being questioned, but now he's been absent for a few weeks that seems to have been forgotten - if we're simply listing a best 22 he definitely in that, but the question right now is where he fits structure wise, because as you said the two obvious roles are currently occupied by players who've hit form
Sub is an option and the same thinking is why I could see Blicavs as sub if they want to have Sam return to the backline, and the latter offers maybe slightly more versatility in that role
I agree up to sub. I don't know about using kp options as sub. Too restricting at a point where you'll likely need the ability to adaptIt’s a weird situation. His talent is undeniable but his form has been underwhelming for large stretches of 2023-24. Now we find ourselves with him out of the team and the two roles he is best suited to occupied by players in good form. To upset either those form lines or structures by shoe-horning him in seems risky for a final.
Which is why I found myself seeing him as sub. Gives you the option value without any of the problems described above.
Mullin to tag ButtersKeep scraping the barrel.
Do we think Jhye has been written off for the finals campaign barring injury to Tak, Bruhn or Bowes? He'd be a good sub with run and ferocity.
I get the feeling the coaching staff have told him that his priority is preseason to cement his spot for 2025.
Need to lock the kid in the gym all summer.Do we think Jhye has been written off for the finals campaign barring injury to Tak, Bruhn or Bowes? He'd be a good sub with run and ferocity.
I get the feeling the coaching staff have told him that his priority is preseason to cement his spot for 2025.
Huh this is really cool! So table 1 is raw output, table 3 is ranking adjusted for opponents?Finally gone through the model I was using for the last few years to rate players perforance relative to position, oppenent, exposure the inside midfield rotations and gametime.
Comparing the relative ranking, it is currently for the full season, if I have time, I'd adjust it since our run after the Carlton game, with Hawkins going down, and us putting in Manaugh and Humphries in, our year completely turned around. The KPD output by the opponent shifted considerably.
The result match the perception I had, we have the best performing outside players in the competition, from rebounding defenders all the way to our small forwards. In this area, Port will be missing their two highest efficent rebounding defenders.
The rankings have an overall bias against pure defensive players, which is why we rank poorly in the Key Defender grouping, we don't have that dominant intercept KPD that some teams do.
Our Key Forward relative ranking is low as other team's KPD efficency is ranked 3rd, Cameron's efficency in near top of the league, but all of our our mainstay KPF are below average. This matches the sight test from earlier in the season, when other teams were taking avantage of Hawkins' lack of mobility and O.Henry was through his body around like a cannonball trying to compete against guys with too much size. Hawkin's drop off was astounding he was pernially one of the most efficent KPF for the last 5 years even to last year. Key forwards tend to do poorly against Port relative to expectations, don't know why.
Both teams have weak ruck divisions.
Their main advatnage is in the inside midfield rotations. Dangerfield efficiency is still at elite levels. Holmes is our best player as an inside midfilder but he is also our best rebounding defender. Stewarts bang on average by position which, is good, we had some poor performers running through there.
Output Inside Midfield KEY_DEFENDER KEY_FORWARD MEDIUM_DEFENDER MEDIUM_FORWARD Outside Midfield RUCK Geelong Cats 11 13 6 1 1 4 15 Port Adelaide 6 16 9 5 14 5 17
Opponent output Inside Midfield KEY_DEFENDER KEY_FORWARD MEDIUM_DEFENDER MEDIUM_FORWARD Outside Midfield RUCK Geelong Cats 10 4 6 12 8 5 2 Port Adelaide 15 15 17 15 11 15 6
Relative with forward compared to oppenents defenders etc, rucks against rucks
Relative Inside Midfield KEY_DEFENDER KEY_FORWARD MEDIUM_DEFENDER MEDIUM_FORWARD Outside Midfield RUCK Geelong Cats 10 16 11 2 1 6 16 Port Adelaide 4 8 7 8 12 3 17
Relative ranking since round 16
Relative Inside Midfield KEY_DEFENDER KEY_FORWARD MEDIUM_DEFENDER MEDIUM_FORWARD Outside Midfield RUCK Geelong Cats 7 10 6 3 2 8 13 Port Adelaide 4 5 7 2 10 1 17
Some of the guys we introduced into team post the Carlton loss change how we play completely
Shuan Mannagh is rated 2nd in the competition for Non-Key forwards, this is probably somewhat skewed by him playing at time as an extra midfielder at around the ground stoppages without appearing in centre bounces. But by raw efficency he matching Dylan Moore.
Humphries is 9th by rebounding defenders in the competition, players his position have no problem accumulating the ball. His stand out attribute is how few mistakes he makes, the model punishes turnovers heavily.
Stewart is bang on the middle for midfielders, but he doesn't play the role conventionally. What is more important is that We've had a bunch of really poor performing players flow through there. Clark, Guthrie at a near VFL replacement level.
O'Connor and Blicavs who filled out the rotations for a few games were a bit better but no where near the standard.
player.surname value Games Average time on ground CB attedance rate Holmes 1.33 10 77 73 Dangerfield 1.21 14 71 95 Bowes 1.11 15 67 73 Parfitt 1.1 9 63 86 Stewart 0.98 9 72 93 Bruhn 0.9 15 61 95 Atkins 0.89 17 67 88 Blicavs 0.77 11 83 70 O'Connor 0.72 4 62 62 Guthrie 0.67 3 52 95 Clark 0.64 11 57 81
Atkins and Bruhn are below overage but not poor performers for guys who are filling out the rotation. The model loves Parfitt, (low gametime, + high tackle count + high clearance number, oddly it liked his Carlton game, it must have really liked his score involvements) If any of the clubs are focusing on data driven recruitment, he'll be picked up. From an attribute perspective he doesn't fit our team. One of flaws of a generalist model on individual perforance, in mutliple press conferences this year Scott at times this year has talked about 2nd order effect that aren't always captured in the stats (cleareances, CP etc).
Our Key Forwards, offensively other than Cameron have been really meh, interstingly enough 4 of the top 10 rated games this year by KPF have been done by Geelong players.
player.surname value Games Average time on ground Cameron 1.47 22 96 Rohan 0.99 12 62 Hawkins 0.91 12 87 Henry 0.89 21 78 Neale 0.88 11 80
I don't think last table captures the full story. Overall the opponents' KPD have had a high scoring fest. But if we dial to the pre Carlton loss and post Carlton loss
Geelong Cats Our KPF Opponent KPD Ratio Round 0 to 15 0.09424 0.10975 0.85871 Round 16 to 24 0.10205 0.10298 0.99094 change 8.3 -6.2 15.4
Might not look like much but it changes our KPF forwards output from 11th to 6th
Lastly ruckmen
Stanley's perfromance this year is awful, he is barely above VFL replacement, I think we have to back him in this week.
His last Port game almost ended his career. His motivation should be through the roof.
De Koning's stats are skewed by his first game which was the 10th highest scoring game recorded by a ruckman, unfortunatly his brother's game was the highest game by a ruckman this year. Its a bit of a theme with De Koning he scores well but his opponent does too.
Win this and we can win it all. Lose and we could go out in straight sets to either the dogs or the other scum. I’d rather win it all
I assume you've only got access to publicly available data, not the more granular paid CD stuff?Finally gone through the model I was using for the last few years to rate players perforance relative to position, oppenent, exposure the inside midfield rotations and gametime.
Comparing the relative ranking, it is currently for the full season, if I have time, I'd adjust it since our run after the Carlton game, with Hawkins going down, and us putting in Manaugh and Humphries in, our year completely turned around. The KPD output by the opponent shifted considerably.
The result match the perception I had, we have the best performing outside players in the competition, from rebounding defenders all the way to our small forwards. In this area, Port will be missing their two highest efficent rebounding defenders.
The rankings have an overall bias against pure defensive players, which is why we rank poorly in the Key Defender grouping, we don't have that dominant intercept KPD that some teams do.
Our Key Forward relative ranking is low as other team's KPD efficency is ranked 3rd, Cameron's efficency in near top of the league, but all of our our mainstay KPF are below average. This matches the sight test from earlier in the season, when other teams were taking avantage of Hawkins' lack of mobility and O.Henry was through his body around like a cannonball trying to compete against guys with too much size. Hawkin's drop off was astounding he was pernially one of the most efficent KPF for the last 5 years even to last year. Key forwards tend to do poorly against Port relative to expectations, don't know why.
Both teams have weak ruck divisions.
Their main advatnage is in the inside midfield rotations. Dangerfield efficiency is still at elite levels. Holmes is our best player as an inside midfilder but he is also our best rebounding defender. Stewarts bang on average by position which, is good, we had some poor performers running through there.
Output Inside Midfield KEY_DEFENDER KEY_FORWARD MEDIUM_DEFENDER MEDIUM_FORWARD Outside Midfield RUCK Geelong Cats 11 13 6 1 1 4 15 Port Adelaide 6 16 9 5 14 5 17
Opponent output Inside Midfield KEY_DEFENDER KEY_FORWARD MEDIUM_DEFENDER MEDIUM_FORWARD Outside Midfield RUCK Geelong Cats 10 4 6 12 8 5 2 Port Adelaide 15 15 17 15 11 15 6
Relative with forward compared to oppenents defenders etc, rucks against rucks
Relative Inside Midfield KEY_DEFENDER KEY_FORWARD MEDIUM_DEFENDER MEDIUM_FORWARD Outside Midfield RUCK Geelong Cats 10 16 11 2 1 6 16 Port Adelaide 4 8 7 8 12 3 17
Relative ranking since round 16
Relative Inside Midfield KEY_DEFENDER KEY_FORWARD MEDIUM_DEFENDER MEDIUM_FORWARD Outside Midfield RUCK Geelong Cats 7 10 6 3 2 8 13 Port Adelaide 4 5 7 2 10 1 17
Some of the guys we introduced into team post the Carlton loss change how we play completely
Shuan Mannagh is rated 2nd in the competition for Non-Key forwards, this is probably somewhat skewed by him playing at time as an extra midfielder at around the ground stoppages without appearing in centre bounces. But by raw efficency he matching Dylan Moore.
Humphries is 9th by rebounding defenders in the competition, players his position have no problem accumulating the ball. His stand out attribute is how few mistakes he makes, the model punishes turnovers heavily.
Stewart is bang on the middle for midfielders, but he doesn't play the role conventionally. What is more important is that We've had a bunch of really poor performing players flow through there. Clark, Guthrie at a near VFL replacement level.
O'Connor and Blicavs who filled out the rotations for a few games were a bit better but no where near the standard.
player.surname value Games Average time on ground CB attedance rate Holmes 1.33 10 77 73 Dangerfield 1.21 14 71 95 Bowes 1.11 15 67 73 Parfitt 1.1 9 63 86 Stewart 0.98 9 72 93 Bruhn 0.9 15 61 95 Atkins 0.89 17 67 88 Blicavs 0.77 11 83 70 O'Connor 0.72 4 62 62 Guthrie 0.67 3 52 95 Clark 0.64 11 57 81
Atkins and Bruhn are below overage but not poor performers for guys who are filling out the rotation. The model loves Parfitt, (low gametime, + high tackle count + high clearance number, oddly it liked his Carlton game, it must have really liked his score involvements) If any of the clubs are focusing on data driven recruitment, he'll be picked up. From an attribute perspective he doesn't fit our team. One of flaws of a generalist model on individual perforance, in mutliple press conferences this year Scott at times this year has talked about 2nd order effect that aren't always captured in the stats (cleareances, CP etc).
Our Key Forwards, offensively other than Cameron have been really meh, interstingly enough 4 of the top 10 rated games this year by KPF have been done by Geelong players.
player.surname value Games Average time on ground Cameron 1.47 22 96 Rohan 0.99 12 62 Hawkins 0.91 12 87 Henry 0.89 21 78 Neale 0.88 11 80
I don't think last table captures the full story. Overall the opponents' KPD have had a high scoring fest. But if we dial to the pre Carlton loss and post Carlton loss
Geelong Cats Our KPF Opponent KPD Ratio Round 0 to 15 0.09424 0.10975 0.85871 Round 16 to 24 0.10205 0.10298 0.99094 change 8.3 -6.2 15.4
Might not look like much but it changes our KPF forwards output from 11th to 6th
Lastly ruckmen
Stanley's perfromance this year is awful, he is barely above VFL replacement, I think we have to back him in this week.
His last Port game almost ended his career. His motivation should be through the roof.
De Koning's stats are skewed by his first game which was the 10th highest scoring game recorded by a ruckman, unfortunatly his brother's game was the highest game by a ruckman this year. Its a bit of a theme with De Koning he scores well but his opponent does too.
5 days after a layoff, and historically second games back are a challenge for most.People have been playing round 23 and backing up the next week until just recently. Not sure why everyone is getting worried over this-especially since he hasn't played for a while.
I pray with my heart and soul that the Dogs win should we lose.
I assume you've only got access to publicly available data, not the more granular paid CD stuff?
Do we think Jhye has been written off for the finals campaign barring injury to Tak, Bruhn or Bowes? He'd be a good sub with run and ferocity.
I get the feeling the coaching staff have told him that his priority is preseason to cement his spot for 2025.
Huh this is really cool! So table 1 is raw output, table 3 is ranking adjusted for opponents?
A knock on player ratings is often that they under-/over-weight certain metrics so that ratings don't match qualitative assessments of best players (BF/Brownlow/coaches' votes etc). Could you share the individual player ratings for one of our late-season games? (not the Weags please)
Can you share the output/relative output team rankings for the whole league?
Awesome research. Those are great stats that need more delving.
On the stanley/sdk thing it is interesting the last port game almost ended him although i think him being hooked was less about his performance and more the match situation.
On sdk he will have good stat games around the ground because he gets lots of general play ball.
The question is whether he can stop the oppo ruck being dominant with their mids at 6-6-6 as thats one of our achilles heels (danger back does help but hes 34). I tend to think sdk could be a very good ruck if well developed but all we should be focusing on this week is what our best option is to limit MF bleeding goals so we can win a flag in the next 3 weeks-and in that context stanley is probably the safer option.
I think mannagh is a crucial inclusion from last time to now one because of his efficiency and two pressure acts. The reality is port probably will beat us for 1st possession at clearances but if we can force enough post clearance turnovers we have better outside players than them (particularly with houston and farrell out) that we can generate efficient i50 ball to put their defense under pressure-some of their defenders are very suspect. Thats our best path to winning.
Many people on our board have underestimated exactly how effective Dangerfield has still been over the past 3 seasons. The only exception was the home run of 2023 where he came back from a hammy, cracked his ribs first game up and ran out the year at 50%. A lot of players would've thrown in the towel but at 50% he was still a better option than any replacement.Danger's rating surprised me, to my eye he dropped off. But his efficiency compared to last year hadn't dropped. He is almost exclusively on the ball for 60% gametime. We need him to set the tone, we have others that can keep the fire going, but only he can start it.
I don't trust SDK yet as the ruck option, even if at first glance the numbers back him, Stanley is fresh this week.
I wish we had some data for scores from sources. Are we really that leaky from centre clearances. Part of the reason why Manaugh scores so high is that he becomes that extra body for the around the ground stoppages.
I think our pathway to victory is that they'll have more passengers in the ball movement chains then we do. Their pathway is that they could control field position
He’s more than a KP.I agree up to sub. I don't know about using kp options as sub. Too restricting at a point where you'll likely need the ability to adapt
No current season stats available
If we sent everyone back to the VFL as per this board then Stanley, OHenry, JHenry, SDK, Close, Blicavs, Neale & Co. would have us favourites to take it out"Absence makes the heart grow fonder"
I swear that if we read reviews if Sam's games this season through to the second Carlton match, that we'd find a good number calling for him to be dropped to the VFL as his form had been indifferent
The coaches made the call to throw him in the ruck for a few weeks, which did seem to help him rediscover some form - but there was also questions about that move, the risk of impact on our defence, don't want him hurt etc
Stanley makes his return to the team against Adelaide, and while it may not have been his best match, his next 3 have been 3 of his best since our premiership year. The same match Sam returns to defence & it's when his knee gave him problems - so interestingly, his main injury issues of recent seasons have come when playing as a defender, not so much in the ruck
Then in Sam's absence from defence, we've seen Blicavs return to his old haunting ground and looking the most solid he has all season - plus, we've seen some of the best football this season from J. Henry and Kolodjashnij had continued his solid season
So it wasn't that long ago that he's form was being questioned, but now he's been absent for a few weeks that seems to have been forgotten - if we're simply listing a best 22 he definitely in that, but the question right now is where he fits structure wise, because as you said the two obvious roles are currently occupied by players who've hit form
Sub is an option and the same thinking is why I could see Blicavs as sub if they want to have Sam return to the backline, and the latter offers maybe slightly more versatility in that role
Many people on our board have underestimated exactly how effective Dangerfield has still been over the past 3 seasons. The only exception was the home run of 2023 where he came back from a hammy, cracked his ribs first game up and ran out the year at 50%. A lot of players would've thrown in the towel but at 50% he was still a better option than any replacement.
Stats wise he suffers from less time on ground (mostly) but his impact per disposal (score involvements, metres gained, clearances etc) is really high. He still has a great feel for the game and times those big moments beautifully.
Dangerfields run at Geelong has been staggering really and his longevity completely unexpected.
Many people on our board have underestimated exactly how effective Dangerfield has still been over the past 3 seasons. The only exception was the home run of 2023 where he came back from a hammy, cracked his ribs first game up and ran out the year at 50%. A lot of players would've thrown in the towel but at 50% he was still a better option than any replacement.
Stats wise he suffers from less time on ground (mostly) but his impact per disposal (score involvements, metres gained, clearances etc) is really high. He still has a great feel for the game and times those big moments beautifully.
Dangerfields run at Geelong has been staggering really and his longevity completely unexpected.