Preview QF2 Geelong v Port Adelaide Thursday Sept 5 2024 @ AO 7:40 pm

[#6 Thorp #7 Selwood LOL]

Hawk was match fit for months on end earlier in the year and look what happened.

Love Tomahawk and always will, but we're not rushing back a bloke who was in All Australian form here. It wasn't even 'above average' form.

It's like his absence has caused people to forget what a liability he was for an extended period.

Again, love the guy and feel dirty even typing those words about a legend of our club...but let's not revise history here.

His injury likely saved him from a Mooney esque conversation taking place.

I think a more fair view of it would be that his injury (or more so the condition of his foot leading up to injury) is the reason a Mooney esque conversation may have been required. Same end result though.

 

[year of the cat]

Hawk was match fit for months on end earlier in the year and look what happened.

Love Tomahawk and always will, but we're not rushing back a bloke who was in All Australian form here. It wasn't even 'above average' form.

It's like his absence has caused people to forget what a liability he was for an extended period.

Again, love the guy and feel dirty even typing those words about a legend of our club...but let's not revise history here.

His injury likely saved him from a Mooney esque conversation taking place.

Absolutely. It was a blessing in disguise for the team that his injury forced his absence. Neale has been good since coming in. Not great but he's doing his job. And he can move.

 

[BORIS332]

They have their own problems, Rozee hasnt been starring as usual, they have to consider Dixon and Marshall to return, and Narkle. Maybe an each way bet on keeping Sav in, a good plant for us.

Bruhn played a slasher of a game last weekend, best I can remember, was in and under like a terrier. We have also been bolstered by another pressure and tackle terrier in Mannagh. Bowes has hit his straps. Atkins does a wheelbarrow load of work he's never credited for. Don't think Stewart will fall for the tag again, he'll be fit, ready as a rocket and firing.

Together with Danger in finals beast mode, I think the sack Hinkley cry from the cretins might just continue.

All of that was against a very ordinary side. Let's not drink our own bath water here, Bruhn, Bowes and Atkins in particular have battled against the stronger teams.

 

[BORIS332]

Really need to win this - don't like the option of coming back to Melbourne to play the winner of Bulldogs vs Hawks. Would love to win this to finish off Ken Hinkley's career for good after his actions at GMHBA after their win this year.

My feeling is that they are a 60-70% chance to win this given their midfield vs ours, but you have to be in it to win it. Don't know what we can do apart from bringing the high pressure that we have at stages through the last few weeks and keep it for 4 quarters. Can't let them get the jump on us like at GMHBA earlier in the year.

Need Bews for Rioli. Can't see space for Hawkins even if fit - our forward line has functioned better with Neale in it. Need Danger and Holmes to have big impacts. Would be good not to let Butters or Horne-Francis off the leash; their other midfielders don't hurt you as much as those two.

Fingers crossed that we find a way.

Agree re JHF in particular, he's unreal. I wouldn't be opposed to playing Mullin on him again.

 

[Pollywaffle]

Really need to win this - don't like the option of coming back to Melbourne to play the winner of Bulldogs vs Hawks. Would love to win this to finish off Ken Hinkley's career for good after his actions at GMHBA after their win this year.

My feeling is that they are a 60-70% chance to win this given their midfield vs ours, but you have to be in it to win it. Don't know what we can do apart from bringing the high pressure that we have at stages through the last few weeks and keep it for 4 quarters. Can't let them get the jump on us like at GMHBA earlier in the year.

Need Bews for Rioli. Can't see space for Hawkins even if fit - our forward line has functioned better with Neale in it. Need Danger and Holmes to have big impacts. Would be good not to let Butters or Horne-Francis off the leash; their other midfielders don't hurt you as much as those two.

Fingers crossed that we find a way.

A couple of random things that may fall in our favour..
1/ Port/Hinkley will be under massive pressure to perform on the big stage and will face a week plus of intense media scrutiny in the Adelaide fishbowl. May have a negative effect.
2/ Home deck advantages have regularly gone out the window for some reason this year
3/We don’t know how their vaunted midfield will respond given relative youth and finals inexperience.

 

[Klink]

It’s actually a joke
They don’t make it easy, considering virgin is a major sponsor of the AFL they should do something about this

Did somebody say road trip?

That's what I will be doing - it'll probably cost more in petrol!

 

[Footy Smarts]

Based off what though? Sdk was good around the ground but he was thumped in the ruckwork. We were losing hit outs 50 to 25 when it was sdk and blicavs. Stanley has been giving us first use of the ball. The underappreciation of ruckwork just staggers me. Sdk is a second ruck. As is blicavs. Stanley is the only first ruck we have fit.

He wasn't just good around the ground we were much improved at clearances with him as number 1 ruck. Are we trying to win hitouts or win the match?

We killed Collingwood 16-6 in centre clearances and scored again and again from them. It was easily our best centre square performance. We were very good against Hawthorn in that department as well. And as a bonus SDK killed his opponent around the ground too.

If appreciating ruck work means drooling over hitouts while your team gets pumped in clearances and in the match then count me out.

 

[BORIS332]

A couple of random things that may fall in our favour..
1/ Port/Hinkley will be under massive pressure to perform on the big stage and will face a week plus of intense media scrutiny in the Adelaide fishbowl. May have a negative effect.
2/ Home deck advantages have regularly gone out the window for some reason this year
3/We don’t know how their vaunted midfield will respond given relative youth and finals inexperience.

Port is a massively emotional team. They have loads of talent, but not much of a system, it's all reliant on their confidence and if things start going against them, they drop their bundle.

We saw that when they got belted by the Lions at Adelaide Oval - the Lions kicked 13 goals to Port's 3 in quarters 2 & 3. Butters still had 35 and 8 clearances, but it wasn't enough. Brisbane lost the hitouts but belted them in clearances and contested possessions. A few weeks later Gold Coast did the same. Wines very quiet in both of those games.

 

[The_Koulouriotis_Fan]

All of that was against a very ordinary side. Let's not drink our own bath water here, Bruhn, Bowes and Atkins in particular have battled against the stronger teams.

They have also played well against stronger teams.

 

[Klink]

They have also played well against stronger teams.

I think many are talking down Port due to previous finals history. But things always turn around and the past means nothing.

We were labelled finals chokers for years between 2012 and 2021, before overcoming this and winning the flag in '22.

Tigers were a joke for 30+ years before winning three flags. History counts for very little.

That also includes our 0-3 finals record in Adelaide against them. They're a very good side Port, it will be a difficult game, but yes we can absolutely win!

 

[The_Koulouriotis_Fan]

I think many are talking down Port due to previous finals history. But things always turn around and the past means nothing.

We were labelled finals chokers for years between 2012 and 2021, before overcoming this and winning the flag in '22.

Tigers were a joke for 30+ years before winning three flags. History counts for very little.

That also includes our 0-3 finals record in Adelaide against them. They're a very good side Port, it will be a difficult game, but yes we can absolutely win!

I think it’s genuinely a 50/50 game. Every team has flaked this year. Port finished 2nd for a reason. We also finished 3rd for a reason.
I agree, history matters very little to these two current teams

 

[BORIS332]

They have also played well against stronger teams.

If you cherry pick. But Bowes averages 23 disposals against bottom 10 sides, and only 17.9 disposals against top 8 sides - that's after removing his sub-affected games. Atkins is even worse with 19.8 disposals against 8 sides and only 16 disposals against bottom 10 sides.

Of course, you'll naturally have fewer disposals against tougher sides and stats don't tell the full story, but averaging 16-18 disposals primarily as mids is not good enough against the top teams.

 

[TheWoodenSlug]

He wasn't just good around the ground we were much improved at clearances with him as number 1 ruck. Are we trying to win hitouts or win the match?

We killed Collingwood 16-6 in centre clearances and scored again and again from them. It was easily our best centre square performance. We were very good against Hawthorn in that department as well. And as a bonus SDK killed his opponent around the ground too.

If appreciating ruck work means drooling over hitouts while your team gets pumped in clearances and in the match then count me out.

But we have won the clearances in all 4 games since Stanley's return.

Prior to that we had won the clearances 4 times; lost 13 times; and drawn 2 times. In the 5 games De Koning was ruck we won 1 time; lost 3 times; drew 1 time.

Don't get me wrong, I liked what I saw from De Koning in the ruck and wanted it to continue; also, Stanley's early season form was garbage (and a large part of the poor clearance numbers in that time).

But we clearly have not been getting pumped in clearances with Stanley in the side over the past month.

 

[The_Koulouriotis_Fan]

If you cherry pick. But Bowes averages 23 disposals against bottom 10 sides, and only 17.9 disposals against top 8 sides - that's after removing his sub-affected games. Atkins is even worse with 19.8 disposals against 8 sides and only 16 disposals against bottom 10 sides.

Of course, you'll naturally have fewer disposals against tougher sides and stats don't tell the full story, but averaging 16-18 disposals primarily as mids is not good enough against the top teams.

I think you're cherry picking the bad stats and also ignoring positional changes and roles played in each game. Bowes only had 14 against Sydney but kicked 2.1

This year being a good or bad side depends on the week you play.

If we base it purely on disposals against sides that were in the top 8 or finished top 8 - Bowes played well against Bulldogs 23 2 goals, Lions 21 1 goal, Demons 20(when they were 4th), Gold Coast 21(when they were 8th), Essendon 26 and 1 goal(when they were 4th), Hawthorn 24, Collingwood 24 and 1 goal (reigning premier).

If you look at Atkins across the season, he's been pretty consistent, he was also sub in the first Carlton game.

Bruhn has battled with injury and getting a good run at it. But his stats against teams that finished in the 8 are 27 against the Hawks, 21 and 1 goal against GWS, 21 against the Lions, 18 against the dogs, 19 against Carlton and 13 against Sydney other than Sydney.

I'd prefer them to be getting 30 disposals but that's not battling and it's pretty typical for our midfield spread.

 

[The_Koulouriotis_Fan]

But we have won the clearances in all 4 games since Stanley's return.

Prior to that we had won the clearances 4 times; lost 13 times; and drawn 2 times. In the 5 games De Koning was ruck we won 1 time; lost 3 times; drew 1 time.

Don't get me wrong, I liked what I saw from De Koning in the ruck and wanted it to continue; also, Stanley's early season form was garbage (and a large part of the poor clearance numbers in that time).

But we clearly have not been getting pumped in clearances with Stanley in the side over the past month.

I'd like to see Stanley as ruck and SDK relieve him like Blitz does and keep Blitz back

 

[frggr]

Interesting review of fixture toughness.

Port got the easiest run alongside the Eagles:

Whose fixture was hardest? Power capitalise, Crows dealt brutal run

Which teams ended up with the hardest and easiest draws in 2024?

www.afl.com.au

Not to say they aren't a good outfit and won't blow us off the park, but their ladder position is a bit overstated.

Not their fault, of course, either.

 

[The_Koulouriotis_Fan]

Interesting review of fixture toughness.

Port got the easiest run alongside the Eagles:

Whose fixture was hardest? Power capitalise, Crows dealt brutal run

Which teams ended up with the hardest and easiest draws in 2024?

www.afl.com.au

Not to say they aren't a good outfit and won't blow us off the park, but their ladder position is a bit overstated.

Not their fault, of course, either.

I don't think you can accurately rate the draw this year, for example teams like Adelaide and St Kilda had really good patches of form that didn't reflect their ladder position.

I'd say the only easy part is how many times you played the bottom 3 teams as they were a mile behind everyone else... even still West Coast beat Melbourne, Freo and Gold Coast, North lost to Pies by 1pt and Richmond beat Sydney.

 

[Footy Smarts]

But we have won the clearances in all 4 games since Stanley's return.

Prior to that we had won the clearances 4 times; lost 13 times; and drawn 2 times. In the 5 games De Koning was ruck we won 1 time; lost 3 times; drew 1 time.

Don't get me wrong, I liked what I saw from De Koning in the ruck and wanted it to continue; also, Stanley's early season form was garbage (and a large part of the poor clearance numbers in that time).

But we clearly have not been getting pumped in clearances with Stanley in the side over the past month.

I'm not saying Stanley was going terribly in clearances. But SDK was going similarly well and some of his follow-up work was absolutely elite.

I genuinely think our best footy this year was the 2nd half of the Essendon game, the Hawthorn game and the Collingwood game when SDK was the number 1 ruck.

My reason for preferring SDK is:

1) SDK looked genuinely elite at times as a ruck and Stanley has never been that in his career.

2) SDK has been pretty terrible in defence this year.

3) Stanley has put in enough bad games (as recently as against Stkilda when Marshall killed him) that we're incredibly unlikely to get 3 good Stanley games in a row.

4) If SDK goes back where does Blicavs play? Do we go an extremely tall defence? Or does Blicavs go back to midfield where he has struggled all year?

 

[My Tilly]

Bowes runs out of legs. It's obvious. His tacking and chasing completely falls off by late in the third 1/4.
He cant go with Horney.
He'd be cooked at 1/2 time.

Danger will go head to head I think.

Horne-Francis rotates between midfield/forward so occasionally could he be assigned to Dangerfield.

I'd absolutely love that particular match-up if that was the case. JHF has a propensity to lose his temper when he gets beaten and the last bloke you want him on is someone like Dangerfield who only knows one way.

 

[Klink]

Just bought my tickets. Section 130

Driving over to Adelaide from the Bellarine. Pumped!

 

[Play it Sam]

Just bought my tickets. Section 130

Driving over to Adelaide from the Bellarine. Pumped!

Go well young gun.
And remove any Cats sticker from your car.

 

[moond0g]

Agree re JHF in particular, he's unreal. I wouldn't be opposed to playing Mullin on him again.

I'd consider it. But the problem is if we pick someone purely to negate someone else and it doesn't work (which there's a fair chance of happening because JHF is a gun), we're left with a player in our side who is of no use to us. Maybe Mullin has some additional flexibility of being able to switch onto Rioli if he fails to stop JHF. But I think we just let Danger go head to head with him in the midfield and Zuthrie or Stewart when he goes forward.

I'm relatively bullish on Mullin long term, but after watching him against St Kilda, I don't really want him in our side this finals series.

 

[CHAWKTS]

SDK now lacks match fitness, and Stanley has form. Very much disagree with you. DeK does not know when or how to jump at a ruck contest- his time will come but not for this final imho.

Pretty sure he will play a half in the VFL this week (I know it is only 6 days to the AFL game but a half makes sense) - what will be interesting is how much he plays in the ruck.

Looking forward to the Port game, our MC has shown the flexibility for match ups…

Port forward line likely to be Georgiades and Sav and either 1 or both of Dixon and Marshall back in the team. So 3-4 talls.

With that in mind I would not be surprised if we go with both Blitz and SDK in the backline alongside Kolo and Henry.

Concern obvioulsy is who we have to take Rioli - I think Max tried it last time without success (he left him alone). Do we think Zutrhrie can run with him? They also run Rozee and Horne through there so we need someone to pick them up.

That is what worries me. Could lean therefore to Mullin or Bews who are the right “type” but not sure are the right talent for any of those players?

I think we might play Stewart more “proper” MF this week - ie forward as well as back…. Having him go back just makes it easy for McnTee to tag him - which he is very effective at. If Stewart stays MF then they will have to sacrifice one of their stars in the MF to tag Stewart. I know Stewart isn’t a great pure MF but if it means we take out the tag or one of their MF out of the middle, it could be smart tactic?

 

[Henry85]

Just bought my tickets. Section 130

Driving over to Adelaide from the Bellarine. Pumped!

Got seats in 332. Really hope we get up


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Tomispen]

Hi fellas, does anyone have a spare member code. Want to bring both my daughters 16 & 18 but only have 1 code. Cheers