Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[jarrod_island_doggies]

Good post, and yes the future is unwritten. I just get apprehensive about the possibility of a non-competitive era dominated by a super-Hawthorn. Bo-riiiiiiiiiiing.

You and me both, my friend! Carn the Crows - I reckon you'll spank North like they stole something. Can't wait for a potential semi against one of the Sydney clubs! (sorry if you're anxious about it, elimination finals are no joke, I know!)

 

[Pessimistic]

The Crows have been squiggle darlings this year, being rated high off the back of an excellent close to 2015. It all seemed to be coming together around mid-season, when they began restricting their opponents to low-ish scores as well as kicking bags themselves, shifting themselves towards the best area of the chart.

But there have been a couple of hiccups lately: the loss to Geelong at Kardinia, and the crucial failure against the Eagles at home that cost them a Top 2 spot.

North, too, haven't been at their best lately. But their best was never that great, not even when they were 9-0.

So it would be a shock if Adelaide lost this. North have a great record in finals over the last two years, reaching consecutive prelims from 6th and 8th, but that's a sample of just two years, and the time before that, they lost an Elimination Final by 96 points. Experience may count for more in finals, but if the Kangaroos are to get up, it needs to count for a lot.

Adelaide 104 - 72 North Melbourne

Flagpole: Adelaide 2nd, North Melbourne 7th.

Just quickly, the eagles beat the giants, the hawks, the crows in succession, they finished 4th, 3rd and 5th yet its adelaide are unlucky?

the eagles lose all those games and the positions are much the same, except hawks move to first, play GWS at home QF and Sydney Host geelong

 

[gothecrows]

Just quickly, the eagles beat the giants, the hawks, the crows in succession, they finished 4th, 3rd and 5th yet its adelaide are unlucky?

the eagles lose all those games and the positions are much the same, except hawks move to first, play GWS at home QF and Sydney Host geelong

If the eagles lost all those games, Adelaide would be ahead of GWS, and quite possibly Geelong too.

 

[Final Siren]

Just quickly, the eagles beat the giants, the hawks, the crows in succession, they finished 4th, 3rd and 5th yet its adelaide are unlucky?

the eagles lose all those games and the positions are much the same, except hawks move to first, play GWS at home QF and Sydney Host geelong

Adelaide are unlucky in the sense that if any of Hawthorn's 5 games decided by under a goal had gone the other way, they'd be Top 4. That's a lot of good chances for the Crows to wind up in a much better spot, if you accept the premise that there's a fair bit of luck in close results. And Adelaide had no counterbalancing good luck: For the Crows to be in a worse spot than they are now (hosting an EF), you have to bend reality pretty hard, changing results by several goals, and only in one particular way.

No other team finished on a knife-edge like that, where their position would be very different if only a series of unlikely events hadn't piled up against them. (Well, except Hawthorn, in reverse.)

With the three Eagles games you mention, the only one that could have easily tipped the other way is the GWS one, where West Coast won by 1pt. (The other two were 4-5 goal victories, which implies that not much luck was involved.) But even if the Giants had won that game, we'd still have the same Top 4 as now, and the Eagles would still be hosting the same EF.

 

[Hoffy95]

Adelaide are unlucky in the sense that if any of Hawthorn's 5 games decided by under a goal had gone the other way, they'd be Top 4. That's a lot of good chances for the Crows to wind up in a much better spot, if you accept the premise that there's a fair bit of luck in close results. And Adelaide had no counterbalancing good luck: For the Crows to be in a worse spot than they are now (hosting an EF), you have to bend reality pretty hard, changing results by several goals, and only in one particular way.

No other team finished on a knife-edge like that, where their position would be very different if only a series of unlikely events hadn't piled up against them. (Well, except Hawthorn, in reverse.)

With the three Eagles games you mention, the only one that could have easily tipped the other way is the GWS one, where West Coast won by 1pt. (The other two were 4-5 goal victories, which implies that not much luck was involved.) But even if the Giants had won that game, we'd still have the same Top 4 as now, and the Eagles would still be hosting the same EF.

As a Geelong supporter we are very thankful for West Coast.

 

[Pessimistic]

may have noted this before, but while the top 4 have significant numbers of 'rookies' in their 22, the Eagles and Crows do not (or not to the extent)

Could be a wildcard when the stuff starts

 

[The Swans Blog]

I think GWS will make the prelim, but it'll be a very tough and probable torrid semi to do it.

They're not without a chance but you'd expect the Swans to beat them comfortably in the end.

I wonder if the Eagles could beat GWS again.

Looks like a Swans Cats GF with Cats hosting GWS and Swans Hawks.

Wouldn't put it past the Hawks to defy the odds tomorrow night or Adelaide getting it done in the semi.

 

[Pessimistic]

I think GWS will make the prelim, but it'll be a very tough and probable torrid semi to do it.

They're not without a chance but you'd expect the Swans to beat them comfortably in the end.

I wonder if the Eagles could beat GWS again.

Looks like a Swans Cats GF with Cats hosting GWS and Swans Hawks.

Wouldn't put it past the Hawks to defy the odds tomorrow night or Adelaide getting it done in the semi.

Id say the giants are the most underrrated of the eight and the swans the most overrated

Whichever route Hawks take, id prefer to avoid GWS several times more than sydney

 

[GreyCrow]

Adelaide are unlucky in the sense that if any of Hawthorn's 5 games decided by under a goal had gone the other way, they'd be Top 4. That's a lot of good chances for the Crows to wind up in a much better spot, if you accept the premise that there's a fair bit of luck in close results. And Adelaide had no counterbalancing good luck: For the Crows to be in a worse spot than they are now (hosting an EF), you have to bend reality pretty hard, changing results by several goals, and only in one particular way.

No other team finished on a knife-edge like that, where their position would be very different if only a series of unlikely events hadn't piled up against them. (Well, except Hawthorn, in reverse.)

With the three Eagles games you mention, the only one that could have easily tipped the other way is the GWS one, where West Coast won by 1pt. (The other two were 4-5 goal victories, which implies that not much luck was involved.) But even if the Giants had won that game, we'd still have the same Top 4 as now, and the Eagles would still be hosting the same EF.

I liked this but I don't like it

 

[Rotayjay]

I liked this but I don't like it

The bright side is that we didn't miss out on top 4 because we're mediocre. We're good, and just buggered up a couple of games instead of having several big failures like the Bulldogs and North.

 

[lamby]

may have noted this before, but while the top 4 have significant numbers of 'rookies' in their 22, the Eagles and Crows do not (or not to the extent)

Could be a wildcard when the stuff starts

What? Adelaide had 7 of their best 22 in the under 22 All Australian squad. I would argue (because I don't have the stats) that the Crows are going in with the youngest 22 of the final 8

 

[Smeg Head]

As a Geelong supporter we are very thankful for West Coast.

This must be a very new phenomenon frankly.

 

[Hoffy95]

This must be a very new phenomenon frankly.

Absolutely.

 

[kirky]

What? Adelaide had 7 of their best 22 in the under 22 All Australian squad. I would argue (because I don't have the stats) that the Crows are going in with the youngest 22 of the final 8

The comment was "rookies" - Adelaide didn't have a lot of rookies this year but an abundance of under 22yo (who most played in last years final series so no first final jitters)

 

[OneGreatClub]

Adelaide are unlucky in the sense that if any of Hawthorn's 5 games decided by under a goal had gone the other way, they'd be Top 4. That's a lot of good chances for the Crows to wind up in a much better spot, if you accept the premise that there's a fair bit of luck in close results. And Adelaide had no counterbalancing good luck: For the Crows to be in a worse spot than they are now (hosting an EF), you have to bend reality pretty hard, changing results by several goals, and only in one particular way.

No other team finished on a knife-edge like that, where their position would be very different if only a series of unlikely events hadn't piled up against them. (Well, except Hawthorn, in reverse.)

With the three Eagles games you mention, the only one that could have easily tipped the other way is the GWS one, where West Coast won by 1pt. (The other two were 4-5 goal victories, which implies that not much luck was involved.) But even if the Giants had won that game, we'd still have the same Top 4 as now, and the Eagles would still be hosting the same EF.

Crows have had plenty of good luck this year.

 

[GreyCrow]

Crows have had plenty of good luck this year.

Now I feel so much better

 

[SwampCreature]

Last nights result is precisely why Roby's Power Rankings are the superior model.

 

[gangsta deluxe]

Last nights result is precisely why Roby's Power Rankings are the superior model.

Dreamers like Roby live life by being the exception rather than the rule!

 

[wcadams88]

Last nights result is precisely why Roby's Power Rankings are the superior model.

Also why Gold Coast are on top he's ladder.. Guys a flog

 

[SwampCreature]

Guys a genius

EFA

 

[Armchair Critic]

Id say the giants are the most underrrated of the eight and the swans the most overrated

Whichever route Hawks take, id prefer to avoid GWS several times more than sydney

I would say both the Giants and Swans would love to take on the Hawks.After North they have been the least impressive side in the 8.Even North looked better at the start of the year than the Hawks have all year TBH

 

[Iron]

Crows have had plenty of good luck this year.

Getting to play Port twice?

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Is it bad?

 

[Pessimistic]

I would say both the Giants and Swans would love to take on the Hawks.After North they have been the least impressive side in the 8.Even North looked better at the start of the year than the Hawks have all year TBH

If north kicked straight........

 

[Randomizor]

dcutter squiggle going to start looking very different for your lot next year