Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

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Fremantle are doing circles in the one area like the Hawks were last year. Very consistent in that regard. Expect to see them moving to a better position possibly like we did come finals.
 
The Speaker said:
The real story of this week is the creation of a gap between the best four and the rest.

Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, Sydney and Fremantle all ahead of North, Geelong and Collingwood, who are well ahead of the next pack.
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A lot of what Squiggle says is pretty intuitive and so easy to agree with (e.g. Freo are an outlier of the 'putting defence #1' approach, Hawthorn when on song are the #1 attacking team in the comp, Melbourne's great leaps forward during 2014 have all been defensive, not because they're kicking more goals themselves). The real test of Squiggle in 2014 will be the extent to which it's accurately pegged Gold Coast.

A lot of people would have GC as dubious finalists, or maybe just falling outside the 8. But Squiggle calls them as being out in 12th (and that's even bearing in mind the club's overperfomance in the West on the weekend), not only well behind the clearly-defined top 7, but also outside of the cluster of 4 clubs fighting for 8th. I know that even if GC come home with a wet sail, win a bunch of games and finish 8th, it doesn't mean that Squiggle to this point was 'wrong'— but Final Siren (who's awesome) I'm sure would be the first to agree that the utility of this sort of thing is the extent to which it helps predict real-world outcomes (as opposed to just being statistical modelling for its own sake).
 

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Phhht said:
Nah I dont think you would be happy :p:D
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If Port Adelaide beat Hawthorn in a final in Melbourne, I'll come back on here and admit that I was totally wrong and I'll also apologise for having no clue whatsoever. :oops::p
 
WWSD said:
If Port Adelaide beat Hawthorn in a final in Melbourne, I'll come back on here and admit that I was totally wrong and apologising for having no clue whatsoever. :p
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Oh you dont need to do that. A fully fit Hawthorn anywhere would be an extremely tough proposition for us this year. I'd be thrilled if we managed to get up.

BUT

My point was your claim that you'd be 'happy' to be proven wrong. If you're anything like me, I'd hate to be proven wrong by my team being beaten, hate, hate, hate it ;)
 
SimonH said:
A lot of what Squiggle says is pretty intuitive and so easy to agree with (e.g. Freo are an outlier of the 'putting defence #1' approach, Hawthorn when on song are the #1 attacking team in the comp, Melbourne's great leaps forward during 2014 have all been defensive, not because they're kicking more goals themselves). The real test of Squiggle in 2014 will be the extent to which it's accurately pegged Gold Coast.

A lot of people would have GC as dubious finalists, or maybe just falling outside the 8. But Squiggle calls them as being out in 12th (and that's even bearing in mind the club's overperfomance in the West on the weekend), not only well behind the clearly-defined top 7, but also outside of the cluster of 4 clubs fighting for 8th. I know that even if GC come home with a wet sail, win a bunch of games and finish 8th, it doesn't mean that Squiggle to this point was 'wrong'— but Final Siren (who's awesome) I'm sure would be the first to agree that the utility of this sort of thing is the extent to which it helps predict real-world outcomes (as opposed to just being statistical modelling for its own sake).
Click to expand...
The squiggle actually expects 12 wins for Gold Coast, though, and to only miss finals on percentage. It does indeed think they're the 12th best team. But from 7-5, with the fixture as it is, 12th best can finish 9th or even 8th.

My feeling about the squiggle's major flaw is that it won't pick up a team that lifts to the occasion. I have a vague memory about Geelong doing this, although I can't remember what year it was, so I'm not sure how the squiggle charted it. Anyway, if there's a team that only does as much as required to win games, the squiggle will underrate them, because they'll keep falling over the line against poor teams. The squiggle assumes that everybody is trying as hard as everybody else.
 
Final Siren said:
The squiggle actually expects 12 wins for Gold Coast, though, and to only miss finals on percentage. It does indeed think they're the 12th best team. But from 7-5, with the fixture as it is, 12th best can finish 9th or even 8th.

My feeling about the squiggle's major flaw is that it won't pick up a team that lifts to the occasion. I have a vague memory about Geelong doing this, although I can't remember what year it was, so I'm not sure how the squiggle charted it. Anyway, if there's a team that only does as much as required to win games, the squiggle will underrate them, because they'll keep falling over the line against poor teams. The squiggle assumes that everybody is trying as hard as everybody else.
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Ah, good point. Hadn't picked up on that (obvious, in retrospect) distinction. Because of vagaries in the draw, 'Squiggle ranking for team performance ≠ predicted ladder position after 22 rounds, even if current performance remains static.'
 
The Speaker said:
The real story of this week is the creation of a gap between the best four and the rest.

Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, Sydney and Fremantle all ahead of North, Geelong and Collingwood, who are well ahead of the next pack.
Click to expand...

We're a game clear of Fremantle.
 

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Final is there a way we can see the previous round's tips? I tried going back to older rounds but tips didnt change :(
 
WWSD said:
I'm not saying I don't respect them, but I doubt Port Adelaide can beat a full strength Hawthorn team in a final in Melbourne.
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Hawthorn have been playing together as a team for years. Much of Port's style along with its current best 22 have been in action for a maximum of 20 games. You can see the difference in how they play now compared to Round 1.

They're building. This year may not win them the flag. The next few years, they'll dominate.

Even so, I think Port could definitely beat Hawthorn at the MCG. Especially if they move Pittard to a wing and Hammer to a forward flank, but I guess it's all speculation.

The squiggle shows Port going upward and the Hawks stagnating, so I wouldn't get too comfy up there. The squiggle doesn't lie!
 
Croweater said:
Hawthorn have been playing together as a team for years. Much of Port's style along with its current best 22 have been in action for a maximum of 20 games. You can see the difference in how they play now compared to Round 1.

They're building. This year may not win them the flag. The next few years, they'll dominate.

Even so, I think Port could definitely beat Hawthorn at the MCG. Especially if they move Pittard to a wing and Hammer to a forward flank, but I guess it's all speculation.

The squiggle shows Port going upward and the Hawks stagnating, so I wouldn't get too comfy up there. The squiggle doesn't lie!
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Unfortunately just look at teams of the past who took this beliefs... collingwood 2010 and essendon of 1999. Both expected to dominate for many years. Both failing miserably. Make hay while the sun shines my friend.
 
Look at the age profile. The majority of Port's talent is younger than 25.

If they hit their peak in a year or two, then look out. I think Port has the right mix of talent, dedication, humility and teamwork in which to win multiple premierships. Nothing is certain, however it looks like a great few years awaits.
 
Croweater said:
Look at the age profile. The majority of Port's talent is younger than 25.

If they hit their peak in a year or two, then look out. I think Port has the right mix of talent, dedication, humility and teamwork in which to win multiple premierships. Nothing is certain, however it looks like a great few years awaits.
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Woah woah woah woah woah
Woah woah woah woah. Let's not get
Ahead of ourselves!
 
Croweater said:
Look at the age profile. The majority of Port's talent is younger than 25.

If they hit their peak in a year or two, then look out. I think Port has the right mix of talent, dedication, humility and teamwork in which to win multiple premierships. Nothing is certain, however it looks like a great few years awaits.
Click to expand...
esc0bar is 100% right. I remember all the Collingwood fans saying this about their team following their 2010 flag. I recall quite a few of us Hawks fans saying the same thing after 2008.

Flags are always going to be hard to win and just because you have a young list at the time doesn't mean you're going to keep improving year on year.
 
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