Yes, still wrong given the port win in 2001. I'd guess we are not far off 50% in away finals, which is very good given the stronger team should be getting the home final anyway and the inherent advantage that comes from a home crowd.
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Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
- Thread starter Final Siren
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Yes, still wrong given the port win in 2001. I'd guess we are not far off 50% in away finals, which is very good given the stronger team should be getting the home final anyway and the inherent advantage that comes from a home crowd.
cryptor
Brownlow Medallist
- May 11, 2008
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Games Hawthorn (the club) won or lost many years ago before this current Hawthorn side was formed with these particular players have no statistical significance on how they'll perform.
As pointed out the side that plays away in a final tends to do so because they are the poorer side. Hence the poor record of travelling sides in finals and why Hawthorn (this side) haven't played an interstate final previous to last week since 2010.
The reason this Hawthorn side is being rated and tipped to beat Fremantle in a PF in WA in spite of what a particular set of data suggests is because this Hawthorn side isn't poorer but just inconsistent in being able to apply themselves - and many must think the reality of having no further chances will force them to apply themselves.
Personally, I'm not too sure. I feel like Hawthorn making the GF from here is maybe a 30-40% proposition. A certain OutSpoken Fremantle supporter will likely still argue it's 0%.
As pointed out the side that plays away in a final tends to do so because they are the poorer side. Hence the poor record of travelling sides in finals and why Hawthorn (this side) haven't played an interstate final previous to last week since 2010.
The reason this Hawthorn side is being rated and tipped to beat Fremantle in a PF in WA in spite of what a particular set of data suggests is because this Hawthorn side isn't poorer but just inconsistent in being able to apply themselves - and many must think the reality of having no further chances will force them to apply themselves.
Personally, I'm not too sure. I feel like Hawthorn making the GF from here is maybe a 30-40% proposition. A certain OutSpoken Fremantle supporter will likely still argue it's 0%.
HoneyBadger35
They're not going to pick him, Mitch.
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Lol at people having a go at a reasonably accurate data set presented without comment.
- Jun 13, 2007
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Guy makes complex tipping formula, shares it with us for free and it generates 200 pages of interesting discussion but we're not happy because for one finals weeks over the decades he's analysed for us, hasn't turned out perfect. It reminds me of this Louis CK clip about how people get selfish so quickly.
Careful. Swearing below.
Careful. Swearing below.
RedStarUncle
Senior List
As a BF lurker I virtually never actually bother to log on and post anything, but SERIOUSLY you need to just stop reading this thread. It's a mathematical model... if it gets 3 games wrong, it means based on a purely mathematical analysis 3 games were upsets. All it's trying to do is provide a numerical analysis free of human instinct.
If a mathematical model could correctly predict every result, we wouldn't even need to play the games. If a mathematical model can predict many games correctly, then it becomes a useful tool for looking at results and saying which ones were expected and which ones were surprising. I'd like think about Freo beating Sydney as surprising based on the results of both teams this season, and then justify that based on Sydney missing a number of players and Ross Lyon having a knack for defying odds and over-achieving in games that matter. Similarly, I thought the Hawks would just be too experienced against the Eagles and would defy the squiggle, but the squiggle nailed it and the Eagles played like a team far more confident than I might've anticipated.
I'm sure all these arguments have been made to you before, but if you still aren't willing to accept the squiggle as an interesting tool then either design your own or stick to the hundreds of other threads were people discuss the footy based on instinct and impression. Don't bother opening this one.
A certain outspoken Fremantle supporter probably has delusions of grandeur
This is a Fremantle side that has lost 3 of its last 4 finals matches with their only win being by a kick and a half against an injury ravaged Swans outfight missing Parker, Jack, Franklin and Reid (from quarter time)
I'm convinced that the winner of the Hawthorn v Adelaide final will go into the PF with 60/40 (Hawks) or 50/50 (Adelaide) favouritism
How I would frame the market...
To make the GF...
West Coast - 80%
Fremantle - 45%
Hawthorn - 40%
Adelaide - 15%
Sydney 14%
North Melbourne 6%
Hawthorn and Sydney are both probably 70/30 to win their SF's (on an account of how difficult it is to back up after Elimination Finals, 2014 notwithstanding)
True for Hawks, not true for Adelaide, according to Sportingbet.
E.g. Hawks to make GF is paying 2.35. Those odds should be made of their odds of beating Adelaide (1.34) multiplied by their odds of beating Fremantle.
Hence 2.35 = 1.34 x odds of beating Fremantle.
Odds of beating Fremantle = 2.35/1.34 = 1.75
For Adelaide to make GF payout is 7.50... Do the same shit for them and their odds of beating Fremantle are 2.34.
Having said that, I just realised that these are subject to change, depending on how well the Hawks/Adelaide do against one another.
It's more likely than a sydney v fremantle grand final, so no I wouldn't think it is the most unlikely outcome, and definitely not by a long way.
So I guess the following never happened
QF 1991 - Hawthorn 124 defeated West Coast 101 at Subiaco
SF 2001 - Hawthorn 72 defeated Port Adelaide 69 at Football Park
Fremantle fans say the darnest things
JaxsonB
Team Captain
- Aug 10, 2015
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If you just blindly follow the almighty Squiggle and don't account for the things it doesn't account for itself, like form (it tries to account for form, but there's a difference between winning, and winning convincingly) and especially injury, then get 3 out of 4 tips wrong, you've brought it on yourself.
- May 4, 2013
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Nail on head
Go back to the beginning re whether Squiggle takes account of the 'convincingness' of a team's victory (yes it does if you're talking about margin—and it also factors in whether it's home or away, the number of points given up as a measure of defensive quality, as well as raw margin, etc; see below if you're talking about, 'well, regardless of the final margin, they just didn't look that convincing in victory').
When it comes to things like injuries, individual player form, 'resting' players, the vibe of how switched-on a team looks during a match, etc—I think you'll find that people are saying, 'this is an inherent limitation of a statistical model; you can allow for that stuff yourself when placing your tips/being a pundit if you want, but to expect things that are not generally amenable to being expressed purely in numbers, to be catered for by a foolproof statistical model, is crazy talk'. If you're not interested in statistical models, then there are plenty of 'Do you reckon that Richmond are the greatest chokers of all time?' (or whatever the made-up controversy of the day is) threads. Is the statistical model more than interesting, and actually useful?; i.e. does it get better results than the average, 'gee, I thought that Team X were looking a bit tired in the final quarter last weekend so I'll tip against them' impressionistic tipster? Looks like it does. Not perfect, but better than the average.
- May 4, 2013
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This is why I think the squiggle has the potential to be amazing if certain things are implemented. Like player value/team value. Different home ground advantage, e.g. instead of 12 point subi, make it 17.5 or something closer to what it actually is.
- Aug 18, 2009
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Finals Week 1, 2015
"You said we would win, squiggle."
Animated:
The Eagles dominated; Fremantle's demon goat-god ensured that the Swans couldn't hit the side of a barn; Adelaide outblasted the Bulldogs, just; and Richmond OH GOD IT HURTS.
As was picked up above, funnily enough the Hawks didn't come out too badly from all this, because the squiggle didn't like their chances against the Swans in a Sydney-based prelim, but it thinks the Keilor Under-15s could have a shot against Fremantle. So we're back to a Hawks/Eagles GF.
YippeeYiYeo
Norm Smith Medallist
- Jun 21, 2015
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Love that updated squiggle!!
And unless im mistaken, Hawthorn have for the first time in 3 years been overtaken on the chart?
And unless im mistaken, Hawthorn have for the first time in 3 years been overtaken on the chart?
- May 4, 2013
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Frustration as a Hawks supporter seeing what we're capable of (the squiggle peak) and then delivering 0.01%. Collingwood 2011 feel about it
YippeeYiYeo
Norm Smith Medallist
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FIFY.
- May 4, 2013
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I have seen this a lot actually. Can someone give some context? I am out of the loop
EDIT: OHHH I GET IT. farkin' good bloke hodgey
- Jun 30, 2011
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Does the margin forecast translate directly to a confidence interval? (equal = 50% 6 points = 55% etc.)?
Deliriously close to something magical here.
Also, props for carrying on through the pain, Final Siren!
Also, props for carrying on through the pain, Final Siren!
JaxsonB
Team Captain
- Aug 10, 2015
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The reason I said convincingness is because it can be a hard thing to gauge just on a statistical model. I mean, Fremantle just beat a top 4 side by 9 points - and even though Squiggle actually predicted they'd lose (not being able to interpret the Swans' injuries, mind you), the win was still far from convincing. Yet, overall their Squiggle benefited from the game.
But yeah, it's mainly just food for thought. Personally, I just found out about it last week, but as a stats buff I love the concept. Like with all raw stats it should be taken with a grain of salt, but it's certainly interesting to ponder and over time have proven more accurate than not.
- Aug 18, 2009
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Not really a confidence interval, but yes, there was a good linear relationship between the predicted margin and the correctness of tips last time I looked at it, where PROBABILITY = 0.52 + (0.01 x MARGIN). That is, for every 1 point of margin, the tip is 1 percentage point more likely to be right, levelling out around 97%/3%.
- Oct 19, 2013
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I was wondering if anyone has ever made a ranking of what year experienced the most variation in the ladder (or squiggle)?
For example:
2015 2014 Difference
1. Freo 4 3
2. WC 9 7
3. Haw 2 1
4. Syd 1 3
etc.
Add up the difference and divide by the amount of teams.
For example:
2015 2014 Difference
1. Freo 4 3
2. WC 9 7
3. Haw 2 1
4. Syd 1 3
etc.
Add up the difference and divide by the amount of teams.
- Aug 20, 2010
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Perhaps they just peaked too early. They were cherry ripe in August, and now have injury concerns to a number of players and they look tired and sore.
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