Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Final Siren]

I was wondering if anyone has ever made a ranking of what year experienced the most variation in the ladder (or squiggle)?

For example:
2015 2014 Difference
1. Freo 4 3
2. WC 9 7
3. Haw 2 1
4. Syd 1 3

etc.

Add up the difference and divide by the amount of teams.

The biggest seasonal change by any team in the last 20 years is Brisbane 1999, who went from wooden spooners to prelim finalists. They improved their squiggle position by 50.6 points.

Second is Geelong 2007, who went from 10th to one of the more emphatic premierships in the modern age, for a gain of 43.7 points.

Then Melbourne 1998, who did the exact same thing as Brisbane 1999, only a year earlier, even losing the same prelim to the same opponent (North), for a gain of 41.2 points.

Then it's Fremantle 2012, who went from 11th to a semi-final for a gain of 36.6 points. And there are quite a few in the 30s. This year, the Bulldogs and West Coast are skirting around the fringes of the top 10.

At the other end of the scale, the worst drop was Adelaide 1999, who went from premiers to 13th (which was 4th-last), for a loss of 23.3 points.

Then Carlton 2002, who fell from semi-finalists to wooden spooners, a loss of 21.5 points.

And third is Hawthorn 2009, who dropped from premier to 9th, for a loss of 17.0 points.

Note that this is highly influenced by how teams finish off the year, since the squiggle measures team performance at a point in time. For example, 2015's fourth-most improved team right now (after the Bulldogs, West Coast and Richmond) is Collingwood, because their last month of 2014 was so appalling. Even winning 1 fewer game in 2015, they were able to improve on that.

Port Adelaide is another one: their movement over 2012-2014 is amazing, but since it's spread over three years, it doesn't stand out in this list.

 

[HolyRioli]

They won the 91 QF at Subi off the top of my head.

Also the 2001 SF at AAMI Stadium

 

[Iron]

Actually, no it doesn't. 10% of qualifying finals losers make the grand final. Hawthorn has not won a final outside Victoria in the history of the AFL. A Hawthorn v WC grand final is statistically the most unlikely outcome by a long way.

They've played 5, and won 2 of them. That's a 40% strike rate. Why would you make this sort of argument if you don't even know what facts are?

 

[Fat Nyfe]

I'm praying our almighty demon-goat god can get us past the Hawks (or Crows) in the prelim. Willing to sacrifice Spoken4

 

[cryptor]

I'm praying our almighty demon-goat god can get us past the Hawks (or Crows) in the prelim. Willing to sacrifice Spoken4

Bet you'd be willing to make that sacrifice regardless.

 

[kane249]

The biggest seasonal change by any team in the last 20 years is Brisbane 1999, who went from wooden spooners to prelim finalists. They improved their squiggle position by 50.6 points.

Second is Geelong 2007, who went from 10th to one of the more emphatic premierships in the modern age, for a gain of 43.7 points.

Then Melbourne 1998, who did the exact same thing as Brisbane 1999, only a year earlier, even losing the same prelim to the same opponent (North), for a gain of 41.2 points.

Then it's Fremantle 2012, who went from 11th to a semi-final for a gain of 36.6 points. And there are quite a few in the 30s. This year, the Bulldogs and West Coast are skirting around the fringes of the top 10.

At the other end of the scale, the worst drop was Adelaide 1999, who went from premiers to 13th (which was 4th-last), for a loss of 23.3 points.

Then Carlton 2002, who fell from semi-finalists to wooden spooners, a loss of 21.5 points.

And third is Hawthorn 2009, who dropped from premier to 9th, for a loss of 17.0 points.

Note that this is highly influenced by how teams finish off the year, since the squiggle measures team performance at a point in time. For example, 2015's fourth-most improved team right now (after the Bulldogs, West Coast and Richmond) is Collingwood, because their last month of 2014 was so appalling. Even winning 1 fewer game in 2015, they were able to improve on that.

Port Adelaide is another one: their movement over 2012-2014 is amazing, but since it's spread over three years, it doesn't stand out in this list.

What was West Coasts rise when it went from a spoon to a prelim?

 

[WCE_phil]

What was West Coasts rise when it went from a spoon to a prelim?

probably not that amazing as we got smashed in the prelim and the qualifier from memory and were one of if not the best spoon team in memory.

 

[dajesmac]

probably not that amazing as we got smashed in the prelim and the qualifier from memory and were one of if not the best spoon team in memory.

We pushed the Pies in the qualifying final from memory. Were within a goal with not long left.

 

[MIKE85]

We pushed the Pies in the qualifying final from memory. Were within a goal with not long left.

Yeah I reckon we were like 8 points down and Shuey missed a shot, then went straight down the other end for the sealer, and they got 1 more really late when the game was done. 20 points was the final margin I think, much closer than that though.

 

[djpaulydemon]

Thanks for the reply Final Siren that was seriously awesome. Brings me back to the days when Melbourne would at least be really good each year in between being terrible.

I didn't properly explain my post last night though. What I was really interested in knowing, but don't have the skills to find out, is what is the most amount of change in the ladder of all the seasons (being creating a cumulative total of each teams movement either up or down and then dividing it by the amount of teams).

Just quickly using a calculator I worked out that the total of change in the ladder between this year and last year was 74, while the change between 2014 and 2013 was only 60.

Divide both by 18 and the average change is 4.1 for this year and 3.3 for last year.

If it was possible to compare the variation of all the ladders of every season you could make assumptions about how even or uneven the competition was at a certain period, and for many people how exciting the overall season was as they see new teams rise and old teams fall.

 

[Jars458]

If the Crows beat Hawks do we become Squiggle royalty?

 

[Yippy Yi Yeo]

The biggest seasonal change by any team in the last 20 years is Brisbane 1999, who went from wooden spooners to prelim finalists. They improved their squiggle position by 50.6 points.

Second is Geelong 2007, who went from 10th to one of the more emphatic premierships in the modern age, for a gain of 43.7 points.

Then Melbourne 1998, who did the exact same thing as Brisbane 1999, only a year earlier, even losing the same prelim to the same opponent (North), for a gain of 41.2 points.

Then it's Fremantle 2012, who went from 11th to a semi-final for a gain of 36.6 points. And there are quite a few in the 30s. This year, the Bulldogs and West Coast are skirting around the fringes of the top 10.

At the other end of the scale, the worst drop was Adelaide 1999, who went from premiers to 13th (which was 4th-last), for a loss of 23.3 points.

Then Carlton 2002, who fell from semi-finalists to wooden spooners, a loss of 21.5 points.

And third is Hawthorn 2009, who dropped from premier to 9th, for a loss of 17.0 points.

Note that this is highly influenced by how teams finish off the year, since the squiggle measures team performance at a point in time. For example, 2015's fourth-most improved team right now (after the Bulldogs, West Coast and Richmond) is Collingwood, because their last month of 2014 was so appalling. Even winning 1 fewer game in 2015, they were able to improve on that.

Port Adelaide is another one: their movement over 2012-2014 is amazing, but since it's spread over three years, it doesn't stand out in this list.

What about West Coast 2011? Went from spooners in 2010 to prelim finalists, losing to the premiers. Surely that's one of the biggest jumps?

 

[AAACockburn]

I'm praying our almighty demon-goat god can get us past the Hawks (or Crows) in the prelim. Willing to sacrifice Spoken4

Fixed that for you.

 

[SimonH]

What about West Coast 2011? Went from spooners in 2010 to prelim finalists, losing to the premiers. Surely that's one of the biggest jumps?

Because I, like anyone, love data that conforms to my prejudices, I'm pleased to see Brisbane 1998 to Brisbane 1999 take the gold medal. Brisbane 1998 was the biggest underperformance with a quality list in the AFL era. They singlehandedly ruined my 1998 tipping comp—I kept looking at the side that was named to play and thinking, 'they're so clearly a class above their opponents, that they couldn't possibly lose again this week'. And they did, almost every week. 1998 was to John Northey what 2015 was to Mick Malthouse (albeit the raw material that Mick had to work with was rubbish by comparison).

 

[lusheslewis]

What about West Coast 2011? Went from spooners in 2010 to prelim finalists, losing to the premiers. Surely that's one of the biggest jumps?

That was about 34 points.

 

[Ok Boomer]

In hindsight the rise of Brisbane in '99 is far less surprising than ours in '11. So much untapped quality in the lions which we saw later.

 

[Roobs321]

At the time I always felt that the 1998 Demons were more of a surprise. That said, Brisbane arguably improved more, as they were a genuine worthy contender, whereas the Demons weren't quite flag ready, despite how close they got.

I never saw the 2010 Eagles as that bad. 17-5 the following year was just ridiculous, but the weren't in quite the sorry state that Port were the following year, nor the Demons after that. I always saw it as a 1998 Lions/1999 Magpies type of spoon, just couldn't get over the line enough.

 

[Final Siren]

What about West Coast 2011? Went from spooners in 2010 to prelim finalists, losing to the premiers. Surely that's one of the biggest jumps?

It's 8th. After the four I charted, there are three Adelaides (1997: 12th to premier, 2012: 14th to prelim, 2005: 12th to prelim), then West Coast 2011, then another Adelaide (2009: elim to semi). Being a Crows supporter must be fun.

 

[Golumless]

Being a Crows supporter must be fun.

That and it's aged me horribly.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Perhaps they just peaked too early. They were cherry ripe in August, and now have injury concerns to a number of players and they look tired and sore.

I wonder if it's more a hunger issue. Have lost the fire to push and push and push.

 

[Final Siren]

Finals Week 2, 2015

Hawthorn vs Adelaide

SQUIGGLE:

Hawthorn 112 - 81 Adelaide

HOMER: Hawthorn
FLAGPOLE: Hawthorn


Sydney vs North Melbourne

SQUIGGLE:

Sydney 96 - 70 North Melbourne

HOMER: Sydney
FLAGPOLE: Sydney​

 

[Tas]

Does the squiggle take into consideration individuals within a team or just factors team results? If it doesn't factor for individuals how can it predict when it comes to injuries?

 

[JaxsonB]

Does the squiggle take into consideration individuals within a team or just factors team results? If it doesn't factor for individuals how can it predict when it comes to injuries?

It doesn't factor in injuries as far as I'm aware. So if a team is significantly injured compared to previous weeks, it'll likely perform worse than the Squiggle anticipates.

 

[The Speaker]

Does the squiggle take into consideration individuals within a team or just factors team results? If it doesn't factor for individuals how can it predict when it comes to injuries?

It can't. The only thing it measures is final scores.

 

[Final Siren]

It can't. The only thing it measures is final scores.

Right. The relevance of all other factors is left for you to consider.

This is also why the squiggle isn't as good in finals, and especially Grand Finals. During the regular season, it can effortlessly track every result from every game, which is hard for regular humans, and the influence of factors like injuries tend to average out. But in finals, there are fewer games with more evenly matched teams, and things like key injuries can become very important.

By the time we reach the Grand Final, the data pool has almost completely dried up, with only four games in the preceding fortnight, one game to predict, and two very evenly matched teams.