Random Chat Thread VIII (Aka the world politics shitfight thread)

[bengrina]

I know many here will be unable to accept it, but it seems to be true.

Let me paint you a narrative;

All the way back in late November, following the Israel/Lebanon ceasefire;


View attachment 2203694

US to start immediately on fresh push for Gaza ceasefire

President Joe Biden aims for a deal involving the release of hostages and the removal of Hamas from power.

www.bbc.com

Fast forward to this week;


View attachment 2203697

So... yes. I stand by what I said, despite it being unpopular with the "** Biden and ** the Democrats" crew.

Didn't Biden just approve an additional $8 Billion in weapons for Israel or am I being misinformed?

 

[Liam Boy]

 

[Liam Boy]

Biden's own administration seems to not want to take the responsibility for this development that Liberals are desperate to assign to them:

 

[The Dark]

Predictable result. Russia was never going to obey international law on POWS.

The Russians and Ukranians conduct regular POW swaps.

Thousands and thousands of POWs have been repatriated by both sides.

This bloke was either a mercenary or a spy, neither of which attract protection under international law.

(Australian troops have always had a fearsome reputation for killing prisoners, from the Boer War to the Western Front to Afghanistan.)

 

[The Brady Bunch]

Wow re tar dant gets censored here.

Don't worry. Elon Musk will give us that word back under the guise of freedumb because he loves to use it himself.

 

[Cyber_punk]

The Russians and Ukranians conduct regular POW swaps.

Thousands and thousands of POWs have been repatriated by both sides.

This bloke was either a mercenary or a spy, neither of which attract protection under international law.

(Australian troops have always had a fearsome reputation for killing prisoners, from the Boer War to the Western Front to Afghanistan.)

They have swapped for Ukranian of course since they are in a war with but I haven't seen it anyone else yet? Could be wrong.

After seeing his youtube rant the guy just came across as someone who wasn't the full quid with delusions of granduer.

 

[The Brady Bunch]

The Russians and Ukranians conduct regular POW swaps.

Thousands and thousands of POWs have been repatriated by both sides.

This bloke was either a mercenary or a spy, neither of which attract protection under international law.

(Australian troops have always had a fearsome reputation for killing prisoners, from the Boer War to the Western Front to Afghanistan.)

Breaker Morant and Ben Roberts Smith being prime examples.

 

[Liam Boy]

 

[The Dark]

They have swapped for Ukranian of course since they are in a war with but I haven't seen it anyone else yet? Could be wrong.

After seeing his youtube rant the guy just came across as someone who wasn't the full quid with delusions of granduer.

The way both sides manage POWs and swaps is one of the most interesting parts of the war.

It's actually really old school and very different from how other great powers operate.

I reckon it's got to do with the fact there's a common language.

When the Anericans launch one of their regular wars of conquest, it's usually in a far removed country where they're completely unfamiliar with local customs and can't speak the language/s.

So you end up with huge prisons with committed insurgent soldiers in alongside civilians like happened in Iraq - Camp Bucca for example where ISIS was born

But the Russians and Ukranians know each other intimately, can communicate and are culturally very similar.

I don't know what to make of that particular individual or his circumstances but it does all seem quite ... odd.

And afaik his death isn't confirmed yet?

(Edit to add - the Russians have captured and swapped back non Ukranian international legion types too)

 

[The Dark]

Breaker Morant and Ben Roberts Smith being prime examples.

Yep, best known examples.

But the Australians in France and Belgium had a shocking reputation, the Germans learned quickly you may as well fight to the death when the Australians come.

It's why they were used as shock troops. It's so weird that we commemorate Gallipolli the loss rather than summer 1918 when Australians held the creaking line under the German offensive then spearheaded the counter attack that won the war.

Sir John Monash effectively invented modern warfare then.

 

[The Brady Bunch]

Yep, best known examples.

But the Australians in France and Belgium had a shocking reputation, the Germans learned quickly you may as well fight to the death when the Australians come.

It's why they were used as shock troops. It's so weird that we commemorate Gallipolli the loss rather than summer 1918 when Australians held the creaking line under the German offensive then spearheaded the counter attack that won the war.

Sir John Monash effectively invented modern warfare then.

I suggest we commemorate Gallipoli more so than Summer 1918 or even Tobruk or Kokoda or Long Tan because the enemy at Gallipoli was really the British high command. It's the closest thing we've had to a war of independence.

 

[DesertRoo]

The Russians and Ukranians conduct regular POW swaps.

Thousands and thousands of POWs have been repatriated by both sides.

This bloke was either a mercenary or a spy, neither of which attract protection under international law.

(Australian troops have always had a fearsome reputation for killing prisoners, from the Boer War to the Western Front to Afghanistan.)

I think this might be on the money, he fits the accountant mould of wtf are you doing here, while he memorises every detail. his background suggests he is the likely type, educated at Melbourne Grammar then to Monash, ends up a lecturer in China, then to the front lines Ukraine, yeah the story doesn't make sense, somethings seriously a miss as to why he was there.

If he wasn't, I bet the Russians thought he was.

 

[The Dark]

I suggest we commemorate Gallipoli more so than Summer 1918 or even Tobruk or Kokoda or Long Tan because the enemy at Gallipoli was really the British high command. It's the closest thing we've had to a war of independence.

Good point!

It was also the launching point of the Murdoch family's power so in their interest to maintain the mythos.

 

[The Dark]

I think this might be on the money, he fits the accountant mould of wtf are you doing here, while he memorises every detail. his background suggests he is the likely type, educated at Melbourne Grammar then to Monash, ends up a lecturer in China, then to the front lines Ukraine, yeah the story doesn't make sense, somethings seriously a miss as to why he was there.

If he wasn't, I bet the Russians thought he was.

Yeah, it's actually really hard to get to the frontline in Ukraine. They don't just let any nuff nuff from overseas there, despite their manpower issues.

The Australian government would absolutely need someone on the frontline learning how modern high intensity war is fought, especially the drone and EW stuff we have zero experience in.

But also, who knows, maybe he is a nuff and just got scared and ran away from where they were holding him and the guards opened up.

 

[DesertRoo]

They've literally spent the last year killing anything that moves

I think it's possible if the feeling on the ground is if trump gets to power, the limited shackles that the Israelis have, would be removed.
scary thought

 

[The Dark]

I think it's possible if the feeling on the ground is if trump gets to power, the limited shackles that the Israelis have, would be removed.
scary thought

I think it's more vindication of Sinwar's strategy.

Israel can't hold Gaza and the insurgency can't be beaten.

It's a strategic defeat for Israel and they know it.

(Also Sinwar had an even more psycho little brother now in charge of rebuilding Hamas in Gaza)

 

[DesertRoo]

I think it's more vindication of Sinwar's strategy.

Israel can't hold Gaza and the insurgency can't be beaten.

It's a strategic defeat for Israel and they know it.

(Also Sinwar had an even more psycho little brother now in charge of rebuilding Hamas in Gaza)

there's a pretty good article about this topic yesterday.
in the short term, it might get a whole lot worse for the Palestinians, but in the long run I suspect you maybe right.

Israeli historian Ilan Pappe: ‘This is the last phase of Zionism’

Pappe talks to Al Jazeera on ‘neo-Zionism’, ceasefire talks, the second coming of Trump and ‘indoctrination’ in Israel.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[The Dark]

there's a pretty good article about this topic yesterday.
in the short term, I suspect it might get a whole lot worse for the Palestinians, but in the long run I suspect you maybe right.

Israeli historian Ilan Pappe: ‘This is the last phase of Zionism’

Pappe talks to Al Jazeera on ‘neo-Zionism’, ceasefire talks, the second coming of Trump and ‘indoctrination’ in Israel.

www.aljazeera.com

Great article, cheers for sharing.

Israel's problem remains that for all its external military capability, they can't win a war of occupation in Gaza or Lebanon.

They only manage to hold on to the West Bank through the collaborationist PA.

 

[Liam Boy]

I think it's more vindication of Sinwar's strategy.

Israel can't hold Gaza and the insurgency can't be beaten.

It's a strategic defeat for Israel and they know it.

(Also Sinwar had an even more psycho little brother now in charge of rebuilding Hamas in Gaza)

I don't think the Israelis have yet realised just what a catastrophic defeat this will be for them long-term. They've gotten so high on impunity that they've totally lost sight of what enabled them in the first place; unthinking western support and a blank check from America. They survive on western perception of their country as a liberal bastion holding back the eastern barbarian hordes, carefully managed by a sophisticated PR program. That has failed, it simply could not cover up the truth any longer. Now millions of people understand, because it's been underlined so hard over the previous year, that they are a dangerous expansionist state full of racist psychos who will mass-murder any surrounding or internal population the moment their leash is loosened.

There is no more know-nothing liberal zionism as the default position. Politicians will no longer be able to support Israel and skate by without that position being heavily scrutinised. The mask has come off. If an American politician realises they can win by campaigning on cutting off Israel's blank check, or America's power on the world stage wanes enough that they simply can't keep propping them up, they're totally ****ed.

 

[The Dark]

I don't think the Israelis have yet realised just what a catastrophic defeat this will be for them long-term. They've gotten so high on impunity that they've totally lost sight of what enabled them in the first place; unthinking western support and a blank check from America. They survive on western perception of their country as a liberal bastion holding back the eastern barbarian hordes, carefully managed by a sophisticated PR program. That has failed, it simply could not cover up the truth any longer. Now millions of people understand, because it's been underlined so hard over the previous year, that they are a dangerous expansionist state full of racist psychos who will mass-murder any surrounding or internal population the moment their leash is loosened.

There is no more know-nothing liberal zionism as the default position. Politicians will no longer be able to support Israel and skate by without that position being heavily scrutinised. The mask has come off. If an American politician realises they can win by campaigning on cutting off Israel's blank check, or America's power on the world stage wanes enough that they simply can't keep propping them up, they're totally ****ed.

Yep, Sinwar managed to not only break out of the box that Israel had put the Palestinians in, but get the world to see how Israel treats Palestinians.

That's done now, Israel can't ever get the impunity back.

Their only hope is a 1994 South Africa moment

 

[Liam Boy]

If Israel can get a South Africa outcome where they get to recognise the civil rights of Palestinians but not do any meaningful reparations or land reform, they should be absolutely over the moon. But I think it would be a disaster internally. Israel have simply created too many racists who will refuse to integrate, and see even that as too much of a concession. Imagine how many more Baruch Goldsteins there would be if they were emboldened by actually losing something, it wouldn't be fair to expect Palestinians to live alongside those people, they just wouldn't be safe. I don't know how there can be a solution to this conflict that doesn't involve some kind of mass-deradicalization program.

 

[The Dark]

The US already has an external revenue collection service - its called the United States Marine Corps.

 

[The Dark]

If Israel can get a South Africa outcome where they get to recognise the civil rights of Palestinians but not do any meaningful reparations or land reform, they should be absolutely over the moon. But I think it would be a disaster internally. Israel have simply created too many racists who will refuse to integrate, and see even that as too much of a concession. Imagine how many more Baruch Goldsteins there would be if they were emboldened by actually losing something, it wouldn't be fair to expect Palestinians to live alongside those people, they just wouldn't be safe. I don't know how there can be a solution to this conflict that doesn't involve some kind of mass-deradicalization program.

Yes, it appears they will now try and pivot to making the Sunni Arab world tolerate/engage with them by leading the charge against Iran and Shia Islam.

They invested heavily in bringing their jihadist allies in Syria - and make no mistake, Al Jolani and his HTS crew are committed lifelong jihadists and remain 100 per cent jihadists - to power by providing years of close air support to pave the way for the rapid advance we saw last year.

Using Sunni jihadists/crazies as the tip of the spear against Iran has looooong been the plan.

Its why the US turned down the offer of swapping the senior Al Qaeda command for the MEK nutbars back in the 00s.

The MEK far too useful for harassing Iran.

U.S. Spurned Iran Offers to Turn Over bin Laden's Son

It may have been a case of hitting the target but missing the opportunity. Reports last week said Saad bin Laden, Osama bin Laden's fourth...

time.com

 

[DesertRoo]

I don't think the Israelis have yet realised just what a catastrophic defeat this will be for them long-term. They've gotten so high on impunity that they've totally lost sight of what enabled them in the first place; unthinking western support and a blank check from America. They survive on western perception of their country as a liberal bastion holding back the eastern barbarian hordes, carefully managed by a sophisticated PR program. That has failed, it simply could not cover up the truth any longer. Now millions of people understand, because it's been underlined so hard over the previous year, that they are a dangerous expansionist state full of racist psychos who will mass-murder any surrounding or internal population the moment their leash is loosened.

There is no more know-nothing liberal zionism as the default position. Politicians will no longer be able to support Israel and skate by without that position being heavily scrutinised. The mask has come off. If an American politician realises they can win by campaigning on cutting off Israel's blank check, or America's power on the world stage wanes enough that they simply can't keep propping them up, they're totally ****ed.

This is it in a nut shell, they’ve got a massive PR problem, you’ve got a dying generation in the west that’s held guilt for what happened in ww2, the internet savvy younger generation is watching Israel commit genocide in realtime, enabled by our politicians.
If the international court case goes ahead politicians in the west can no longer turn a blind eye to what’s been happening.
All the while you’ve got all their neighbours shaking their heads at what’s going on, playing the patient game till Washington’s support is pulled.

 

[The Dark]

This is it in a nut shell, they’ve got a massive PR problem, you’ve got a dying generation in the west that’s held guilt for what happened in ww2, the internet savvy younger generation is watching Israel commit genocide in realtime, enabled by our politicians.

This trend - the loss of lived experience of WW2 - is a huge issue in why the world is having such issues.

People don't understand why the structures that were built after WW2 are so valuable, because they were literally built atop a mountain of skulls.

Bush Snr oversaw the collapse of the Soviet Union, but it was the Baby Boomer Clinton that supported the ravaging of Russia that led directly to the rise of the siloviki faction like Putin.

And it was the famously draft dodging Bush Snr who decided to tear up the world order and invade and occupy Iraq, which convinced the Russian siloviki faction ... and they were entirely correct, the French knew it too .. that the US had completely abandoned the post WW2 structures and it was everyone for themselves.

Libya confirmed that 100 per cent.

Gaddafi did a deal with the UK and US to give up his WMD, six years later he was murdered by the side of the road with Western special forces looking on (or more likely doing ot imo)

If the international court case goes ahead politicians in the west can no longer turn a blind eye to what’s been happening.
All the while you’ve got all their neighbours shaking their heads at what’s going on, playing the patient game till Washington’s support is pulled.

The ICC is the big one, because it is the last chance for the structures intended to REPLACE the post WW2 order (it was only established in 2002) to have any legitimacy.

The Americans voted against it, and don't recognise it and are now planning to undermine it in every way possible.

Which tells you EVERYTHING about the "rules based order" hey.