Results we need for a Top 2 Finish....

[Count Zero]

So the situation is that whatever happens we are guaranteed a home final. Clear your appointments books Port fans. Send the broken arrow around. Do not make any plans for September. We need a big crowd and a big atmosphere.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

So the situation is that whatever happens we are guaranteed a home final. Clear your appointments books Port fans. Send the broken arrow around. Do not make any plans for September. We need a big crowd and a big atmosphere.

I'm in money saving mode now

 

[Captain Wacky]

Here's a scary outcome:

If Port lose their last 2 games, and;
Sydney win their last 2 games, and;
Crows win their last 2 games, (and a few other results pan out as expected) then:

Port v Crows in week 1 of finals

What's more more scary is that you consider it scary.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Yep as soon as the Gee v Kanga's game was over I knew we'd be playing home most likely in week 2 but maybe also weeks 1 and if things go really well weeks 3. Mathematically we could still finish 7th but given Sydney play both Hawks and especially Collingwood I can't see us losing that much percentage to finish lower than 6th.

If we finish top 4 What is a worse scenario?

Finish 4th, play Gee in Wk 1 lose, get home final in week 2, might play crows as they can't get higher than 8th unless a lot of results go their way, win, and then play WCE in Subi if they finish 2nd or 3rd and win in wk 1? or

Finish 3rd play WCE at Subi, lose, travel back may only have 6 days break, home final maybe against Sydney, if win that, then it would be Gee at MCG for a PF?

 

[PJ Power]

Would probably prefer the option of playing Geelong in week 1 and then all being well the Eagles week 3 (prelim). Having said that we are a better chance of causing an upset against the Eagles even at Subi, based on our longstanding record against them, so that wouldn't be such a bad first week option either.

It is worth noting the closeness of our percentage to the Eagles'. They definitely have the easier draw over the next 2 weeks, and therefore should accumulate a better points differential from those two matches, nudging them just above us in percentage. It could well come down to a trip to Subi if we can hold our form and at least win the Freo game to finish in the top 4.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

My predictions for the final ladder this week are:

1 Geelong I reckon will beat , Port (SS) and Bris (G) = 19-3

2 Port lose to Gee (SS), beat Freo (FP) = 14-8

3 West Coast lose to StK (TD), beat Ess (Sub) = 14-8 less % than Port???

4 Kangas to beat Clt (TD), beat WB (TD) = 14-8 less % than Port

5 Syd will beat Coll (MCG), Haw (MCG) = 13-1-8

6 Haw to beat WB (TD), lose Syd (SCG) = 13-9

7 STK to beat WC (TD), beat Rich (MCG) = 12-1-9

8 Adel to beat Bri (FP), Coll (TD) = 12-10. Superior % over collingwood

Outside the 8 is

9 Coll to lose to Syd (MCG), lose Adel (TD) = 12-10
10 Ess to beat Rich (MCG) lose to WC (Sub) = 11-11
11 Bri 9-1-12 lose to Adel (FP), Gee (G) = 9-2-11
12 Freo beat Melb (sub) lose to Port (FP)10-12
13 WB lose, Haw (TD), lose Kang (TD) 9-1-12

This is a big change from my Ladder last week. See post # 9. Then again, next Monday morning this could be way off again. The biggest change is Collingwood miss out on finals!! I thought Collingwood had already won 12 games before they played Melb.


I reckon West Coast are "tanking" ie resting players for finals and StK will knock them off if all they lose is Baker, but get back Koschitzke and Hudghton who were last minute withdrawls last week. This will strengthen Stk a lot.

Port and WCE then will be seperated by percentage as Kanga's can't make up 10% differential.

WCE play Ess at Subi starting 4.10pm EST on Saturday of rd 22 and we play Freo on Saturday night at 7.40pm EST. The last quarter of the Port game could see the calculators used after every score. Or if Freo aren't going to win, could they "tank" the last quarter to stop WCE getting a home final in Wk 1 and possible Home Prelim????????
As Mike Moore would say, mmmmmmmmmmmm....Interesting.


As the stat of the week on Big Footy said, Choco has never lost a Rd 21 game so we might not need Freo's help.


But gotta make contigency plans for Week 1 at Subi. I could get flights Friday morning out of Sydney and return othe red eye Sunday night/Monday morning for $540 with Virgin as of early Wednesday. Haven't missed a final yet, but not sure I wanna pay $500+ to watch us in a QF. Win boys this week and next, Win!

 

[TheFridge]

I have tried to avoid this thread as it is all a bit of guesswork and potentially getting ahead of ourselves, but you'd have to say, with the continuing back run of Weagle injuries, you'd have to fancy a crack at the Eagles in the first round of the finals.

Can imagine some mixed feelings from Fremantle supporters next week if a flogging by Port were to cause pain for West Coast....

Edit: REH, I do realise the thread is just a bit of light-hearted fun, though...

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I have tried to avoid this thread as it is all a bit of guesswork and potentially getting ahead of ourselves, but you'd have to say, with the continuing back run of Weagle injuries, you'd have to fancy a crack at the Eagles in the first round of the finals.

Can imagine some mixed feelings from Fremantle supporters next week if a flogging by Port were to cause pain for West Coast....

Edit: REH, I do realise the thread is just a bit of light-hearted fun, though...

No worries Fridge. If I didn't have to worry about finding cheap flights to travel around the country I wouldn't be that bothered about it either. I would rather put $500+ into my footy club directly, but sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do.

 

[Count Zero]

My predictions for the final ladder this week are:

1 Geelong I reckon will beat , Port (SS) and Bris (G) = 19-3

2 Port lose to Gee (SS), beat Freo (FP) = 14-8

3 West Coast lose to StK (TD), beat Ess (Sub) = 14-8 less % than Port???

4 Kangas to beat Clt (TD), beat WB (TD) = 14-8 less % than Port

5 Syd will beat Coll (MCG), Haw (MCG) = 13-1-8

6 Haw to beat WB (TD), lose Syd (SCG) = 13-9

7 STK to beat WC (TD), beat Rich (MCG) = 12-1-9

8 Adel to beat Bri (FP), Coll (TD) = 12-10. Superior % over collingwood

Outside the 8 is

9 Coll to lose to Syd (MCG), lose Adel (TD) = 12-10
10 Ess to beat Rich (MCG) lose to WC (Sub) = 11-11
11 Bri 9-1-12 lose to Adel (FP), Gee (G) = 9-2-11
12 Freo beat Melb (sub) lose to Port (FP)10-12
13 WB lose, Haw (TD), lose Kang (TD) 9-1-12

This is a big change from my Ladder last week. See post # 9. Then again, next Monday morning this could be way off again. The biggest change is Collingwood miss out on finals!! I thought Collingwood had already won 12 games before they played Melb.


I reckon West Coast are "tanking" ie resting players for finals and StK will knock them off if all they lose is Baker, but get back Koschitzke and Hudghton who were last minute withdrawls last week. This will strengthen Stk a lot.

Port and WCE then will be seperated by percentage as Kanga's can't make up 10% differential.

WCE play Ess at Subi starting 4.10pm EST on Saturday of rd 22 and we play Freo on Saturday night at 7.40pm EST. The last quarter of the Port game could see the calculators used after every score. Or if Freo aren't going to win, could they "tank" the last quarter to stop WCE getting a home final in Wk 1 and possible Home Prelim????????
As Mike Moore would say, mmmmmmmmmmmm....Interesting.


As the stat of the week on Big Footy said, Choco has never lost a Rd 21 game so we might not need Freo's help.


But gotta make contigency plans for Week 1 at Subi. I could get flights Friday morning out of Sydney and return othe red eye Sunday night/Monday morning for $540 with Virgin as of early Wednesday. Haven't missed a final yet, but not sure I wanna pay $500+ to watch us in a QF. Win boys this week and next, Win!

Nice summary REH. The Port/WCE percentage is crucial. If your predictions are right then I think that our best chance is for the Saints to give the Eagles a nice old touch up this week, because the Coasters will probably recover some of that percentage in the second week. Port, of course, needs to have a close one at Cat Park and then give Freo a bath. Calculators on standby. I have one of those programmable jobs from HP which has served me well in these types of situations before.

 

[Papa G]

Nice summary REH. The Port/WCE percentage is crucial. If your predictions are right then I think that our best chance is for the Saints to give the Eagles a nice old touch up this week, because the Coasters will probably recover some of that percentage in the second week. Port, of course, needs to have a close one at Cat Park and then give Freo a bath. Calculators on standby. I have one of those programmable jobs from HP which has served me well in these types of situations before.

Whilst I agree with everything in this, do not forget Hawthorn. If they win their next 2 against the Bulldogs and Sydney, they will be in the mix as well. They actually currently have a higher % than both West Coast and Port.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

From one of the stats contributors on Footy Stats Diary.

http://footystats.freeservers.com/Daily/Diary.html#PROGNOSTICATIONS

With 16 matches to go there are 65,536 different possible win/loss outcomes, or 43,046,721 if you include draws.

He states only 3 sides have been confirmed in making the finals. Gee, Port and WCE. The lowest both us and West Coast can finish is 7th. However, beacause of the big % differences, realistically 6th is the lowest we can finish, unless there is a combined turn around of approx 250 pts and teams down to Collingwood. So we have a home final either week 1 or 2.

 

[Phhht]

Altering REH's predictions to what I would LIKE to happen,

My predictions for the final ladder this week are:

1 Geelong lose to Port (SS) and lose to Bris (G) = 18-4

2 Port beat Geel (SS), beat Freo (FP) = 15-7

3 Haw trounce WB (TD), beat Syd (SCG) = 14-8, better % than weagles

4 West Coast lose to StK (TD), beat Ess (Sub) = 14-8 less % than Hawks???

5 Kangas to beat Clt (TD), beat WB (TD) = 14-8 less % than Hawks/weagles

6 Coll to beat Syd (MCG), beat Crows (TD) = 14-8 less % than Hawks/weagles/Kangas

7 STK to beat WC (TD), beat Rich (MCG) = 12-1-9

8 Bris - beat cows (AAMI), beat Geel (G), = 11 -2-9

Outside the 8 is

Who cares!

Oh well, I can dream..........

 

[thegossip]

hey russell, your big problem that weekend will be trying to get out of Sydney airport with Johnny big show, will also be interseting if sydney have a home final in first week with trying to get fans and teams in to Sydney.

 

[Wishinman]

From one of the stats contributors on Footy Stats Diary.

http://footystats.freeservers.com/Daily/Diary.html#PROGNOSTICATIONS

With 16 matches to go there are 65,536 different possible win/loss outcomes, or 43,046,721 if you include draws.

He states only 3 sides have been confirmed in making the finals. Gee, Port and WCE. The lowest both us and West Coast can finish is 7th. However, beacause of the big % differences, realistically 6th is the lowest we can finish, unless there is a combined turn around of approx 250 pts and teams down to Collingwood. So we have a home final either week 1 or 2.

Or just a week 3 home final.

 

[portentous]

When's APEC start and will it affect Sydney's finals draw?

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

hey russell, your big problem that weekend will be trying to get out of Sydney airport with Johnny big show, will also be interseting if sydney have a home final in first week with trying to get fans and teams in to Sydney.

Forgot about that little drama. Thanks for the heads up, I will have to investigate. Flights I wouldn't think would be cancelled, may be delayed, but it will be a shyte fight at the airport. Probably have to leave home 3 hours before the flight rather than the usual 1hr and 1/4 before the flight.

 

[Count Zero]

Whilst I agree with everything in this, do not forget Hawthorn. If they win their next 2 against the Bulldogs and Sydney, they will be in the mix as well. They actually currently have a higher % than both West Coast and Port.

Good point. The old calculator will be working overtime.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Stk lose to WCE. 3rd spot or lower is looking most likely. Unless we beat the Cats on Sunday and/or the bombers do it for Sheedy and Hird at Subiaco next weekend.

 

[blackdiamond]

Stk lose to WCE. 3rd spot or lower is looking most likely. Unless we beat the Cats on Sunday and/or the bombers do it for Sheedy and Hird at Subiaco next weekend.

I will wave my Power scarfe for the Bombers.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

Looks like Hansen jagged a hammy and Judd is struggling with his groin. WCE are inflicting a bit of self-damage in the push to finish 2nd. Might make them a bit vulnerable if we do cop them first up at Subi.

 

[port_rule]

Now is:

Option A
Beat Geelong and Fremanlte
WCE to lose to Essendon or win by a modest margin

Option B
Beat Fremantle
Lose to Geelong by small margin
WCE lose to Essendon
Hawthorn lose to Sydney or Bulldogs

All indicators are it will be WCE @ Subi in Week One.

Our finals destiny could then go two ways:

Win and Host a preliminary final against lilkely Kangaroos or Sydney (or possibly Geelong if they choke).

Lose and host a semi final against likely Hawthorn or Adelaide , then if win that play Geelong or Kangaroos at the MCG in the Prelim.

If we got Adelaide in week 2 I could see a straight sets exit eventuating.

Brisbane or Collingwood have to beat the Cows!!!

 

[Captain Wacky]

Brisbane or Collingwood have to beat the Cows!!!

Why the fear?

Personally I relish the opportunity to avenge the 2005 semi.

 

[PAFCsince1870]

Why the fear?

Personally I relish the opportunity to avenge the 2005 semi.

Agree.

I think alot of our supporters are worried because we lost the last showdown, when really, that night the conditions played right into their hands and we lost Brogan minutes before the start of the game (we rarely lose when both Brogan and Lade play).

I'd be more than happy to play them in dry September conditions.

 

[morell]

Nup. **** that. We have to avoid the Crows, if we can.

They match up well against us, they play a style of football we have proven we cant handle and they have the mental edge over us.

I would rather play WC than Adelaide.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

Not happy that Carlton handed the Roos 5% today.