Richmond still premiership favourites for 2019?

[Barry_Badrinath]

Tigers had a dream draw and a dream injury run and still couldn't get it done. Other teams will overtake them next year. Their window has passed them by.

I remember the harder draw was going to be Richmond’s downfall this year. Didn’t work out like that. Even if they get a harder draw there’s no guarantee the strong teams from this year will back up next year.

 

[PerthBoy86]

It's just the bookies forming a market, they need to protect themselves as well as entice betting. If the Tigers get Lynch, they might shorten, if West Coast keep Gaff, they might shorten, the market changes all the time.

It's very hard to win back-to-back, and that's reflected in the market, if you see great value somewhere then take it on. It's actually quite hard to frame an accurate market for 18 teams this far out, try it yourself for fun and there will be some inconsistencies.

If you look at recent history back to back isn't much less likely than not winning it.

Crows did it in 97-98
Lions did it twice
Either Sydney or West coast could easily have done it
Geelong could have easily done it twice.
St Kilda could have done it in 09-10 if not for a bit of bad luck.
Hawthorn of course did it twice with the 3 peat.

So I don't see how the back to back thing should affect odds.

 

[Roobs321]

As long as they don't deplete too many stars in trade season, I'd love to see the Giants win one. It's about time after 3 threatening years. Hopefully their injured guys are mostly back by the early rounds and they have better luck. Top 2 in H&A should be an aim as well. Then Brisbane in 2020.

Richmond should definitely be in the mix given their quality. Different case to '99 Essendon, in that they were still young and developing, and had injured stars to come back, as well as losing to a much worse opponent in the prelim (only two sides really had the right to beat them). In 2018, the two grand finalists were the injury-afflicted, and Richmond still couldn't get it done. They'll learn from this though, and might get Lynch. Their age profile is still very much in the window.

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

If you look at recent history back to back isn't much less likely than not winning it.

Crows did it in 97-98
Lions did it twice
Either Sydney or West coast could easily have done it
Geelong could have easily done it twice.
St Kilda could have done it in 09-10 if not for a bit of bad luck.
Hawthorn of course did it twice with the 3 peat.

So I don't see how the back to back thing should affect odds.

“Could have”

Only 5 teams have managed to back up their premiership since the late 80s when zone drafting was done away with.

 

[juss]

If you look at recent history back to back isn't much less likely than not winning it.

Crows did it in 97-98
Lions did it twice
Either Sydney or West coast could easily have done it
Geelong could have easily done it twice.
St Kilda could have done it in 09-10 if not for a bit of bad luck.
Hawthorn of course did it twice with the 3 peat.

So I don't see how the back to back thing should affect odds.

Big difference between "could have" and did.
The bookies may look at it like this, Richmond finished top of the ladder, are very good at the MCG, and might get Tom Lynch. West Coast just won the flag, might lose Gaff and Lycett, and even though they overcame it this year, they would still need to travel to win the GF again next year. That's about as much analysis as they need to form a market, and put the Tigers as favourites for example.

If the bookies are wrong, and the Eagles should be favourites and represent significant value, then the smart punters and pro gamblers will jump all over that price.

 

[sante]

Recent history shows the GF is played by 2 different teams every year. Makes sense

 

[Joao]

I think Richmond being favourites is reasonable but given the last 3 premiers you'd be nuts to bet on this IMO.

 

[Final Siren]

If you look at recent history back to back isn't much less likely than not winning it.

Crows did it in 97-98
Lions did it twice
Either Sydney or West coast could easily have done it
Geelong could have easily done it twice.
St Kilda could have done it in 09-10 if not for a bit of bad luck.
Hawthorn of course did it twice with the 3 peat.

So I don't see how the back to back thing should affect odds.

If you have to pick the next premier, it's definitely been a good strategy to stick with the current one -- because they're almost certainly more likely to win it than any other individual team you could pick.

But if your choice is between "the reigning premier" and "any other team," it's different: There have been 5 back-to-backs vs 16 non back-to-backs since 1997. So you should pick "any other team."

 

[rhys_22]

Tigers had a dream draw and a dream injury run and still couldn't get it done. Other teams will overtake them next year. Their window has passed them by.

I think Richmond will become too lynch conscious. Their game plan reminds me of Collingwood 10-11..the rest of the comp caught up. Jack's getting old too. Dusty will move to new Zealand. Bye bye punt road.

 

[Duskfire]

If it’s anything like the last three seasons the premier will come from someone no one expects so it doesn’t really matter.

 

[PerthBoy86]

If you have to pick the next premier, it's definitely been a good strategy to stick with the current one -- because they're almost certainly more likely to win it than any other individual team you could pick.

But if your choice is between "the reigning premier" and "any other team," it's different: There have been 5 back-to-backs vs 16 non back-to-backs since 1997. So you should pick "any other team."

Yeah but this is team vs team, not one team vs 17 others lol. Just because WC won it this year doesn't change the likelihood of Richmond or anyone else winning it (in any significant way).

 

[adammania9]

Recent history shows the GF is played by 2 different teams every year. Makes sense

The last three years do, however history actually has at least one side playing back to back grand finals very often. The only exceptions this century beyond the last three grand finals are 2012, 2007 and 2005

 

[PerthBoy86]

Big difference between "could have" and did.
The bookies may look at it like this, Richmond finished top of the ladder, are very good at the MCG, and might get Tom Lynch. West Coast just won the flag, might lose Gaff and Lycett, and even though they overcame it this year, they would still need to travel to win the GF again next year. That's about as much analysis as they need to form a market, and put the Tigers as favourites for example.

If the bookies are wrong, and the Eagles should be favourites and represent significant value, then the smart punters and pro gamblers will jump all over that price.

Maybe, but I think they often get it wrong. I think you could mount a fair case for either side falling off a bit next year, but I guess they have more faith in the Tigers, which is fair enough. I do think Collingwood for $1.60 was definitely too short for the GF, but there you go.

 

[BF Tiger]

If you look at recent history back to back isn't much less likely than not winning it.

Crows did it in 97-98
Lions did it twice
Either Sydney or West coast could easily have done it
Geelong could have easily done it twice.
St Kilda could have done it in 09-10 if not for a bit of bad luck.
Hawthorn of course did it twice with the 3 peat.

So I don't see how the back to back thing should affect odds.

So St Kilda get a "could have" when they didn't even win one. WTF?

 

[PerthBoy86]

So St Kilda get a "could have" when they didn't even win one. WTF?

Yeah could have easily won 09, and if not for an unlucky bounce would've won 10. You don't think it was very plausible? Sometimes the difference between getting x and y result is wafer thin.

 

[Coaster2012]

Tigers should be favourites imo. Will be hurting after this season and still play the MCG so well.
Tigers v WC GF would be mighty sweet.

But if history is anything to go by, it will probably be The Bombers winning it or North Melbourne.

TBH, seeing the Crows get up and win it would be cool. Guys have been shat on the last 12 months.

 

[Thegibbsgamble]

I remember the harder draw was going to be Richmond’s downfall this year. Didn’t work out like that. Even if they get a harder draw there’s no guarantee the strong teams from this year will back up next year.

Your draw was soft. Not as soft as Collingwood but still soft
Six of your first seven games at home. Four of your last five at home. That's softer than butter in a nuclear explosion.

Collingwood odds way to short. They can't beat top eight teams.

West coast have alot of travel and a shortened pre season.

Personally I'm biased but adelaide without injuries still play the best footy and grounded a number of players last year. Should be higher than Collingwood. Hawthorn wouldn't of made top four had Adelaide not had injuries and west coast probably of finished third

So if one of the favourites get what we got so much could change

 

[Power Raid]

tigers are probably favourites for 2020

their window is still wide open

 

[Masher]

Tigers v Saints 2019 GF

 

[blckcaviar]

Including the finals series WC and Richmond both won 19. So I'd think winning the last four games in 2018 including 3 finals should factor in the odds of how we'll do in 2019.

Like I said, look at last year. Adelaide were favourites going into 2018. Richmond won the Premiership and were (in hindsight) a much better team than Adelaide in 2018. They started the year 4th favourites.

Why do you think that WC winning the Premiership this year means they "should" be favourites in betting?

 

[Tom_Thumb]

WCE guaranteed next year, cannot lose.

If we lose Gaff and Lycett with LeCras, Mckenzie retiring we are in a rebuild phase I believe and not much chance.

 

[Fadge]

These markets are a joke. Even if I was 100% certain that Richmond were going to win the flag next year, there'd be no point in putting on a bet with a 364 day payout without a massive stake, as I could bet any regular amount I would put on Richmond over the next year and make more than double the potential winnings easily.

You would take a 350% profit over a 12 month investment?

What would be your strategy to make more than that, assuming they win the flag?

 

[Final Siren]

Yeah could have easily won 09, and if not for an unlucky bounce would've won 10. You don't think it was very plausible? Sometimes the difference between getting x and y result is wafer thin.

Yeah, but if you start making allowances for "could have," then Adelaide could easily not have won 97-98 from 4th & 5th, Brisbane were 9pts away from no 3-peat due to the 2002 GF, Hawks in a 2014 prelim were 3pts away from no 3-peat, etc.

Better just to stick with what actually happened.

 

[Final Siren]

Yeah but this is team vs team, not one team vs 17 others lol. Just because WC won it this year doesn't change the likelihood of Richmond or anyone else winning it (in any significant way).

Right! I don't have historical flag odds, but it would be interesting to compare the success rate of bookies' preseason favourites vs simply picking the reigning premier. I wouldn't be surprised if the latter strategy was more successful, although there probably isn't much between them. It's extremely difficult to pick the next premier no matter what you do.

 

[Fadge]

In an 18 team competition, each of the top 12 chances are better than 16 to 1...

Book set at 111% just for those 12 teams alone...