Player Watch Rising Star 2022 Discussion

[eth-dog]

Just putting this out there, but if you consider the entirety of the season to date i dont think the gap between daicos and newcombe is as big as people are making out.

Yes NDs best has been better than JNs best game. In fact ND best 6 games combined are prob better than JNs best 6 games.

Their middle best 5 games are probably pretty similar an

But JNs worst 6 games id argue are better than NDs worst 6 games.
View attachment 1451745ND accumulates the ball and is very clean (especially in the wet wow!). But he doesnt tackle much relatively speaking (nature of the different positions they play).
Season avg:
Disposals ND - 26.6 vs JN - 22
Tackles ND - 1.9 vs JN - 4.9
View attachment 1451742

If we look at who's bests has been better than whose ND has it in spades. That 40 disposals 3 goal game in the wet was fantastic.
But if we look at the season as a whole, whats worth more? +4.6 disposals of +3 tackles per game? consistency or higher ceiling?

Id personally have Daicos in front atm but i dont feel as though its as big a gap as people are saying. One or 2 big games from JN and a couple quiet ones from ND could flip this on its head.

Unless Daicos gets suspended it's locked in.

 

[lordbob]

Unless Daicos gets suspended it's locked in.

hypothetical, daicos gets a defensive forward on him for the next 5 weeks and averages only 15 - 20 disposals a game. Newcombe gets mid to high 20's with a couple 30+ games. You still think daicos wins? I dont think this will happen but anything is possible. In this scenario i wouldnt have daicos winning though. if he keeps going at his current output then its all his thoguh.

 

[eth-dog]

hypothetical, daicos gets a defensive forward on him for the next 5 weeks and averages only 15 - 20 disposals a game. Newcombe gets mid to high 20's with a couple 30+ games. You still think daicos wins? I dont think this will happen but anything is possible. In this scenario i wouldnt have daicos winning though. if he keeps going at his current output then its all his thoguh.

Yes. That's why I said that unless he gets suspended, Daicos has it locked

 

[lordbob]

que newcombe getting 45 possies 5 goals and burting into prime position for the rs hehe (not a serious prediction unless it happens, in which case i am Nostradamus reincarnate )

 

[Dewyyyyy]

que newcombe getting 45 possies 5 goals and burting into prime position for the rs hehe (not a serious prediction unless it happens, in which case i am Nostradamus reincarnate )

 

[HeHateMe]

That cumulative total points bar graph is spot on imo.

ND start the year a little slower then the likes of Bowey and Duke who already had a taste but once he got settled he has just taken his game to another level.

 

[DopeMaster]

Couldn’t tell you it’s the official afl rating tho.

Is this the same rating that says Jack Crisp is the 2nd best player in the competition? Algorithm is due a tweak, throws up some bizarre rankings.

 

[DopeMaster]

hypothetical, daicos gets a defensive forward on him for the next 5 weeks and averages only 15 - 20 disposals a game. Newcombe gets mid to high 20's with a couple 30+ games. You still think daicos wins? I dont think this will happen but anything is possible. In this scenario i wouldnt have daicos winning though. if he keeps going at his current output then its all his thoguh.

Good to see a handful of Hawks supporters still thinking Newcombe is in the mix

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Is this the same rating that says Jack Crisp is the 2nd best player in the competition? Algorithm is due a tweak, throws up some bizarre rankings.

Couldn’t tell you tbh, that’s a shock to me. Despite Newcombe leading the rating the actual top 5 is spot on. Top 2 can switch around and it’s basically what it’ll be.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

Getting in early, but has Jai Newcombe had the greatest ever 3rd place finish in a Rising Star award?

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Getting in early, but has Jai Newcombe had the greatest ever 3rd place finish in a Rising Star award?

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Just putting this out there, but if you consider the entirety of the season to date i dont think the gap between daicos and newcombe is as big as people are making out.

Jai is a great young player, and Rising Star nominations seem to be handed out with an eye to a “body of work” rather than necessarily the best eligible player in any given week…

… but the Rising Star award is not a consistency award, it’s a one-off vote at the end of the season for the best eligible player in that year.

The format does not favour Jai.

 

[lordbob]

Jai is a great young player, and Rising Star nominations seem to be handed out with an eye to a “body of work” rather than necessarily the best eligible player in any given week…

… but the Rising Star award is not a consistency award, it’s a one-off vote at the end of the season for the best eligible player in that year.

The format does not favour Jai.

I agree, which is why i said i think ND is ahead of jai. But with 5 weeks to go, if Jai has some crazy good games then its game on still. The main difference between the two atm is ND has a better top 6 games. 5 weeks left gives jai a chance, albeit a slim one.

 

[cryptor]

Jai is a great young player, and Rising Star nominations seem to be handed out with an eye to a “body of work” rather than necessarily the best eligible player in any given week…

The "body of work" nominations tend to happen later in the year for players who missed out on nominations earlier in the season for more deserving performances.

… but the Rising Star award is not a consistency award, it’s a one-off vote at the end of the season for the best eligible player in that year.

What is "best" though? An extreme example: Who is better? Player A who kicks 3 goals every week of the season, or player B who kicks 10 one week and 1 goal every other week? Player A was consistently very good and kicked a higher total across the season, but player B had the best single performance despite a lower season total.

And before you or anyone else starts, I'm not suggesting Daicos and his 40 & 3 game was a flash in the pan performance and that Newcombe has otherwise been better. I'm just pointing out that the award criteria for "best" must consider consistency and average performance level over a season and not just be automatically given to the player who happened to put in the most impressive single game performance. Would Hollands suddenly become the undisputed leader if he gets 40 & 4 this week on debut?

The format does not favour Jai.

The format favours recency bias and media hype. And it happens because voting only occurs at the end of the season yet the award discussion and interest is kept in the media spotlight weekly through the nominations system.

And again, before you or anyone else starts, I'm not suggesting Daicos hasn't been deserving of the recent praise and media hype because he certainly has been. The hype generally comes from the good performances and Daicos has been backing them up and keeping that momentum going, and he'll be a very worthy winner if he continues to do so.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

The "body of work" nominations tend to happen later in the year for players who missed out on nominations earlier in the season for more deserving performances.

Naturally. It’s hard to have a “body of work” in round 1.

What is "best" though? An extreme example: Who is better? Player A who kicks 3 goals every week of the season, or player B who kicks 10 one week and 1 goal every other week? Player A was consistently very good and kicked a higher total across the season, but player B had the best single performance despite a lower season total.

A player who kicks 10 one week and then 1 every other week presumably kicks 121 goals for the season, so I’ll take him over Player A who kicks 66. If you’re saying 10 and then one per week for the remainder of the season, then barring other stats, 66 > 31.

And before you or anyone else starts, I'm not suggesting Daicos and his 40 & 3 game was a flash in the pan performance and that Newcombe has otherwise been better. I'm just pointing out that the award criteria for "best" must consider consistency and average performance level over a season and not just be automatically given to the player who happened to put in the most impressive single game performance. Would Hollands suddenly become the undisputed leader if he gets 40 & 4 this week on debut?

Yes, consistency matters somewhat or Martin’s 27 and 5 game would have won him the award. But it’s churlish to suggest that a player putting up 40 and 4 would make any player favourite over Daicos, because Daicos has obviously had many excellent games this year and not just his most recent one.

The format favours recency bias and media hype. And it happens because voting only occurs at the end of the season yet the award discussion and interest is kept in the media spotlight weekly through the nominations system.

Well yes, recency… because with young players in particular you hope for a steep development curve, and what you have at round 1 is not usually what you end up with at round 23. If they don’t develop they typically don’t win, and the more recent performances are hence the more relevant.

 

[cryptor]

Naturally. It’s hard to have a “body of work” in round 1.

Of course. But if 2 players have really great standout games in round 1 then only one gets a nomination. The other doesn't automatically get it in round 2 on the back of their round 1 effort or body of work. It again goes to the standout performance. It's only by later in the season that they start to hand out the nominations to players who may not necessarily have even been the best performer that week but who have had a great season and it would be embarrassing for the credibility of the award should they not end up with one.

A player who kicks 10 one week and then 1 every other week presumably kicks 121 goals for the season, so I’ll take him over Player A who kicks 66. If you’re saying 10 and then one per week for the remainder of the season, then barring other stats, 66 > 31.

Sorry, I did mean it as "every other week of the season". So you'd agree peak performance isn't the be-all and end-all? There should be consideration for a body of work?

Yes, consistency matters somewhat or Martin’s 27 and 5 game would have won him the award. But it’s churlish to suggest that a player putting up 40 and 4 would make any player favourite over Daicos, because Daicos has obviously had many excellent games this year and not just his most recent one.

Yes, so given consistency does matter and having the best one-off game isn't enough to instantly qualify a player as being "the best", then it stands that the award is actually based on the body of work. Which also means should Daicos drop off significantly in the run home and players who've built strong bodies of work throughout the season finish strongly there is potential for it to not end up with him winning. Which is just hypothetical. He certainly has the peak performance and his body of work is probably the best of those eligible to date.

Well yes, recency… because with young players in particular you hope for a steep development curve, and what you have at round 1 is not usually what you end up with at round 23. If they don’t develop they typically don’t win, and the more recent performances are hence the more relevant.

I'm not talking about consideration for development or anything like that. Just the plain old tendency for people to focus on recent events and attribute more weight to them.

 

[Pistol Night]

I agree, which is why i said i think ND is ahead of jai. But with 5 weeks to go, if Jai has some crazy good games then its game on still. The main difference between the two atm is ND has a better top 6 games. 5 weeks left gives jai a chance, albeit a slim one.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Sorry, I did mean it as "every other week of the season". So you'd agree peak performance isn't the be-all and end-all? There should be consideration for a body of work?

Peak performance isn’t the be-all and end-all, it’s necessary to prove it wasn’t a one-off… but I do think it’s the most important consideration.

Yes, so given consistency does matter and having the best one-off game isn't enough to instantly qualify a player as being "the best", then it stands that the award is actually based on the body of work. Which also means should Daicos drop off significantly in the run home and players who've built strong bodies of work throughout the season finish strongly there is potential for it to not end up with him winning. Which is just hypothetical. He certainly has the peak performance and his body of work is probably the best of those eligible to date.

Hypothetically, mathematically, yes I suppose that could happen. But just what sort of precipitous drop-off are we talking about?

If Newcombe is touted as the most consistent player of the Rising Star cohort, well he has 5 games of 25 possessions or more, and Daicos has 10 this season. Whatever you consider a “body of work” to be, Daicos already qualifies. There are five games left. If Daicos gets injured next week and doesn’t play another game, he very likely still wins. If he gets suspended he’s ineligible. So what is this scenario in which Daicos reverts to a fully-fit but utterly mediocre player, while Newcombe continues at his current trajectory?

 

[Go the Guts]

Horne Francis will be a phenomenal player but it’s fascinating how ordinary a start to his career he’s had.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Horne Francis will be a phenomenal player but it’s fascinating how ordinary a start to his career he’s had.

With Cunnington coming and North having a coach who isn't a clueless lemon next season, we will see a much more different and dynamic JH-F at the Roos (although he showed glimpses/flashes of his talent and future brilliance this season several times)

 

[HolyRioli]

Just putting this out there, but if you consider the entirety of the season to date i dont think the gap between daicos and newcombe is as big as people are making out.

Yes NDs best has been better than JNs best game. In fact ND best 6 games combined are prob better than JNs best 6 games.

Their middle best 5 games are probably pretty similar an

But JNs worst 6 games id argue are better than NDs worst 6 games.
View attachment 1451745ND accumulates the ball and is very clean (especially in the wet wow!). But he doesnt tackle much relatively speaking (nature of the different positions they play).
Season avg:
Disposals ND - 26.6 vs JN - 22
Tackles ND - 1.9 vs JN - 4.9
View attachment 1451742

If we look at who's bests has been better than whose ND has it in spades. That 40 disposals 3 goal game in the wet was fantastic.
But if we look at the season as a whole, whats worth more? +4.6 disposals of +3 tackles per game? consistency or higher ceiling?

Id personally have Daicos in front atm but i dont feel as though its as big a gap as people are saying. One or 2 big games from JN and a couple quiet ones from ND could flip this on its head.

For an award such as the rising star, I'd be selecting the higher ceiling pretty easily.

 

[cryptor]

Hypothetically, mathematically, yes I suppose that could happen. But just what sort of precipitous drop-off are we talking about?

If Newcombe is touted as the most consistent player of the Rising Star cohort, well he has 5 games of 25 possessions or more, and Daicos has 10 this season. Whatever you consider a “body of work” to be, Daicos already qualifies. There are five games left. If Daicos gets injured next week and doesn’t play another game, he very likely still wins. If he gets suspended he’s ineligible. So what is this scenario in which Daicos reverts to a fully-fit but utterly mediocre player, while Newcombe continues at his current trajectory?

First off, raw disposals isn't a great measure here. Particularly if you've ever watched how Newcombe plays, where he'll very often tap/punch the ball forward into space or to gain territory without taking possession - which is very impactful to the way Hawthorn plays because as a team we're not a great stoppage side, so it's better for us to keep the ball live or at least move it into better field position.

As to a scenario where Daicos doesn't win the RS under those exact conditions? One probably doesn't realistically exist. I don't see Daicos dropping off significantly enough without it being due to injury or teams starting to put a close tag on him. But even in the case of a tag I think it's fair to consider the fact he's copping it due to being such a gun. The scenario really requires someone else to increase their performance to close the gap. In the case of Newcombe maybe it means winning more clearances or adding a goal or so per game to his output. For SDK I don't know enough about his game to say what he'd need to do but I'm sure there is something he could do. So that plus Daicos having a quieter run home plus recency bias maybe enough.

Personally, I don't think it happens. I can see Newcombe having a couple more really good games to the end the season, but it's more likely he slows down than takes his game to a new level in the last 5 weeks. Even as far as suspension goes, Newcombe is way more likely to get suspended than Daicos.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

First off, raw disposals isn't a great measure here. Particularly if you've ever watched how Newcombe plays, where he'll very often tap/punch the ball forward into space or to gain territory without taking possession - which is very impactful to the way Hawthorn plays because as a team we're not a great stoppage side, so it's better for us to keep the ball live or at least move it into better field position.

As to a scenario where Daicos doesn't win the RS under those exact conditions? One probably doesn't realistically exist. I don't see Daicos dropping off significantly enough without it being due to injury or teams starting to put a close tag on him. But even in the case of a tag I think it's fair to consider the fact he's copping it due to being such a gun. The scenario really requires someone else to increase their performance to close the gap. In the case of Newcombe maybe it means winning more clearances or adding a goal or so per game to his output. For SDK I don't know enough about his game to say what he'd need to do but I'm sure there is something he could do. So that plus Daicos having a quieter run home plus recency bias maybe enough.

Personally, I don't think it happens. I can see Newcombe having a couple more really good games to the end the season, but it's more likely he slows down than takes his game to a new level in the last 5 weeks. Even as far as suspension goes, Newcombe is way more likely to get suspended than Daicos.

I don’t think taps and knock-ons are going to win Jai a Rising Star. And I don’t think an extra goal a game for five weeks is going to turn the tide either.

Credit to you for supporting your guy. I’m happy to just let it play out from here.

 

[cryptor]

I don’t think taps and knock-ons are going to win Jai a Rising Star. And I don’t think an extra goal a game for five weeks is going to turn the tide either.

I'm not saying it would. Was just pointing out the folly of basing anything on raw disposal numbers.

And it wouldn't just be an extra goal or two a game, it would also be winning more clearances (and the extra stats that come from that. eg. metres gained, inside 50's, score involvements, etc.). Like it or not, the award voters don't watch every game and ultimately their final rankings will probably consist of a bit of finger in the air kind of assessment. Looking over stat sheets, watching some highlights, etc. Lots of 30+ disposal games looks good. 40 & 3 looks amazing. Likewise winning a centre clearance and wheeling out of the centre, driving the ball deep inside 50 or kicking the goal looks great on a highlight reel.

To bring it back to the original point (which wasn't even mine). Daicos is ahead, but Newcombe still isn't that far behind. The thing that makes it really hard to say for sure what the difference is, is the fact they play such different positions and roles for their teams. Both have such dominant leads in multiple KPIs related to their position. 2022 AFL Rising Stars Disposals Per Game Leaders

 

[Simon Crawshay]

Decent game by Newk today.

Lazy 30 touches, 600 odd meters gained and 2 goals.

Absolute unit.