Road to the Finals

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For the 11 teams that are in it:

1: Swans: 56 points

22: Collingwood at SCG
23: Essendon at Marvel
24: Adelaide at SCG

2: Lions: 54 points

22: Giants at GABBA
23: Collingwood at MCG
24: Essendon at GABBA

3: Port: 52 points

22: Melbourne at MCG
23: Adelaide at AO
24: Freo at Optus

4: GWS: 52 points

22: Brisbane at GABBA
23: Freo at Giants Stadium
24: Bulldogs in Ballarat

5: Geelong: 52 points

22: Freo at Optus
23: St Kilda at Marvel
24: Eagles at GMHBA

6: Freo: 50 points

22: Geelong at Optus
23: Giants at Giants Stadium
24: Port at Optus

7: Bulldogs: 48 points

22: Adelaide at AO
23: North at Marvel
24: Giants at Ballarat

8: Carlton: 48 points

22: Hawks at MCG
23: Eagles at Optus
24: Saints at Marvel

9: Essendon: 46 points

22: Suns at Marvel
23: Swans at Marvel
24: Brisbane at GABBA

10: Hawthorn: 44 points

22: Carlton at MCG
23: Richmond at MCG
24: North in Launceston

11: Collingwood: 44 points

22: Swans at SCG
23: Brisbane at MCG
24: Melbourne at MCG
 
Jelly Bean said:
Collingwood, R22, 2011. We were on top of the ladder (comfortably), got smashed by the Cats in the final round of the year by over 100 points, and then won our first and second finals...
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A ha! I didn't even think of Collingwood as an example. But alas, maybe that's the highest margin a top team has come back the next week, and won? Hopefully Sydney aren't up for breaking records 😁
 
I don’t think we will play finals. Even if we win all 3 games I reckon our percentage will cost us. Lose any 1 of the 3 & it’s over.
 

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frizzle said:
I don’t think we will play finals. Even if we win all 3 games I reckon our percentage will cost us. Lose any 1 of the 3 & it’s over.
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I think everyone agrees finals are extremely unlikely.

Thread is more about the permutations of wins/losses that would see us sneak in.

Winning all 3 games is just a starting point, and plenty of other results have to fall our way.

As unlikely as it is, it’s not a zero percent chance and thus an interesting hypothetical to entertain.
 
76woodenspooners said:
For the 11 teams that are in it:

1: Swans: 56 points

22: Collingwood at SCG
23: Essendon at Marvel
24: Adelaide at SCG

2: Lions: 54 points

22: Giants at GABBA
23: Collingwood at MCG
24: Essendon at GABBA

3: Port: 52 points

22: Melbourne at MCG
23: Adelaide at AO
24: Freo at Optus

4: GWS: 52 points

22: Brisbane at GABBA
23: Freo at Giants Stadium
24: Bulldogs in Ballarat

5: Geelong: 52 points

22: Freo at Optus
23: St Kilda at Marvel
24: Eagles at GMHBA

6: Freo: 50 points

22: Geelong at Optus
23: Giants at Giants Stadium
24: Port at Optus

7: Bulldogs: 48 points

22: Adelaide at AO
23: North at Marvel
24: Giants at Ballarat

8: Carlton: 48 points

22: Hawks at MCG
23: Eagles at Optus
24: Saints at Marvel

9: Essendon: 46 points

22: Suns at Marvel
23: Swans at Marvel
24: Brisbane at GABBA

10: Hawthorn: 44 points

22: Carlton at MCG
23: Richmond at MCG
24: North in Launceston

11: Collingwood: 44 points

22: Swans at SCG
23: Brisbane at MCG
24: Melbourne at MCG
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Geelong, Blues and Hawks appear to have the easiest 3. All the other teams have quite loseable matchups. 🤞
 
Occidental said:
When it’s all over and we review that we lost to StKilda, Gold Coast, Essendon, Hawthorn & Bulldogs & drew with Freo & Essendon, we will realise we blew it.
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Bulldogs?
They look flag bound.
 
I would have been optimistic for our last stretch of games if we still had De Goey and Mitchell (when fit) in the team but looks like injuries to key players at important times this year killed us.

We have part of the team that won the granny last year, and then we have some players that just aren’t up to it. Couple that with an aging Sidebottom and Pendles and no Adams and Murphy and we are a starkly different team then we were 12 months ago.

But, perhaps it’s an opportunity. Trial a forward line with all of McStay, Cox and Krueger in it and win more contested marks. Trial Reef as a wingman. Trial Maynard as a midfielder. Mcreery full time midfielder. Perhaps being a bit more unpredictable is exactly what we need to start winning games again and to see the players enjoying themselves.
 
Magpie_man said:
I would have been optimistic for our last stretch of games if we still had De Goey and Mitchell (when fit) in the team but looks like injuries to key players at important times this year killed us.

We have part of the team that won the granny last year, and then we have some players that just aren’t up to it. Couple that with an aging Sidebottom and Pendles and no Adams and Murphy and we are a starkly different team then we were 12 months ago.

But, perhaps it’s an opportunity. Trial a forward line with all of McStay, Cox and Krueger in it and win more contested marks. Trial Reef as a wingman. Trial Maynard as a midfielder. Mcreery full time midfielder. Perhaps being a bit more unpredictable is exactly what we need to start winning games again and to see the players enjoying themselves.
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While we’re still a mathematical chance I’d prefer we try to win our games rather than throwing the towel in by trialing players in unfamiliar positions / playing kids etc - If we lose on Friday then by all means throw the magnets around.
 
Jen2310 said:
Yeah we'll see. I'm expecting the swans to have gotten a wake up call, and we'll see a much improved swans side.
At least Papley is still injured.

I think if Swans doesnt get us, Lions might with the way they are playing.
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Lions will probably be on ten wins on the trot when we meet.. I always feel that makes a loss seem more of a chance as such runs always end at some point. I don't see them going all the way without dropping a game.
 
domus said:
Lions will probably be on ten wins on the trot when we meet.. I always feel that makes a loss seem more of a chance as such runs always end at some point. I don't see them going all the way without dropping a game.
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Lions atm do worry me, especially with no jordy and mitchell v the last time we met. They are probably bound for a loss, as you said its hard to keep up that continued winning streak.
 

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If we do win our last 3 games, we’ll be on 56 points and probably some percentage around 103% ish.

And if that doesn’t get us into finals we’d be super unlucky.

Historically, here’s what teams that finish the year in 8th place achieve:

2023: 50 points, 110% (23 games)
2022: 48 points, 108% (22 games)
2021: 44 points, 109% (22 games)
2020: 38 points, 109% (17 games)
2019: 48 points, 95% (22 games)
2018: 52 points, 131% (22 games)
2017: 48 points, 105% (22 games)
2016: 48 points, 105% (22 games)
2015: 52 points, 106% (22 games)
2014: 48 points, 105% (22 games)
 
Jelly Bean said:
Collingwood, R22, 2011. We were on top of the ladder (comfortably), got smashed by the Cats in the final round of the year by over 100 points, and then won our first and second finals...
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don't really count that - the game meant nothing and you could tell.
Unfortunately it did mean something though because Geelong went on to be the only team to beat us - all three times we played them that year. The last of those games mattered!!! 2011 really was the one that got away.
 
magpies42 said:
What are you all banging on about, if we win all 3 we have effectively 14 wins. It would be unprecedented to not make finals with 14 wins.

We don’t need to barrack for anybody but our own team.
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this year is unprecedented already with the closeness in the ladder this late in the season. Because there are no clear outliers now at the top end, you will need more wins to qualify than usual.
 
Jelly Bean said:
Collingwood, R22, 2011. We were on top of the ladder (comfortably), got smashed by the Cats in the final round of the year by over 100 points, and then won our first and second finals...
Click to expand...

Was round 24, and a 96 point loss. I was there, and it was horrible. Knew then that we would not be premiers.

Other factors were also at play in that loss, not least of all the succession plan and whatever was going on in Malthouse’s head. Heater had also been suspended for 8 weeks for the betting scandal, which Maxwell (our Captain!) was also embroiled in.

It was a perfect storm of off-field issues and disasters which culminated in a humiliating loss to the eventual premiers.

I’m not sure what Sydney’s excuse is, but I can’t see them recovering well from the flogging they received on the weekend.
 
76woodenspooners said:
If we do win our last 3 games, we’ll be on 56 points and probably some percentage around 103% ish.

And if that doesn’t get us into finals we’d be super unlucky.

Historically, here’s what teams that finish the year in 8th place achieve:

2023: 50 points, 110% (23 games)
2022: 48 points, 108% (22 games)
2021: 44 points, 109% (22 games)
2020: 38 points, 109% (17 games)
2019: 48 points, 95% (22 games)
2018: 52 points, 131% (22 games)
2017: 48 points, 105% (22 games)
2016: 48 points, 105% (22 games)
2015: 52 points, 106% (22 games)
2014: 48 points, 105% (22 games)
Click to expand...
The ladder is that tight, we do need a few other results to go our way. Need Freo to fall over the next couple and Hawks to lose this week
 
If Melb knock off Port this week then I reckon Port are a big chance to fall out by losing their remaining games.

I know Melb winning seems unlikely but it’s at the G and I reckon Port are flakey.
 
Kirby said:
If Melb knock off Port this week then I reckon Port are a big chance to fall out by losing their remaining games.

I know Melb winning seems unlikely but it’s at the G and I reckon Port are flakey.
Click to expand...

If all else fails.

1722896531631.png
 
Jelly Bean said:
I'm most annoyed about the Fremantle draw and the Bulldogs loss. Although the GC loss was hugely annoying as well.

Fremantle game - we were comfortable in the last, and they came from 25ish points down in the last to draw it. Unforgivable by us (and I don't want to hear any complaints about the F50 free - that didn't lose it for us).

Bulldogs game - our play in the first quarter was a good football as we'd played all year, but kept on missing easy shots and making silly turnovers. Then we stopped.

GC - as we know, we had a habit through this period of not switching on outside of probably a quarter of football total for the game. We are a comfortably better side than them, but let them get the march on us until we pinched back the lead with a few minutes to go when we decided we cared (only to lose it again)
Click to expand...
After the round 2 St Kilda loss, I said it'd haunt us all year. After seeing them get flogged numerous times that proved true...

I just didn't think it would potentially be the reason we missed finals, but here we are.
 

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