Road to the Finals

[unplugged]

The craziest part is IF we win all 3 games and finish 13-2-8, which is more or less 14 wins, we could still miss finals. That's outrageous in its own right.

 

[Kes1984]

The craziest part is IF we win all 3 games and finish 13-2-8, which is more or less 14 wins, we could still miss finals. That's outrageous in its own right.

A normal year, that should be enough to qualify for finals. This is no normal year though. Even just one of the draws into a win might be enough.

St Kilda loss and the Freo draw are the two main ones that will haunt me if we miss this year. The Freo one we let go of a lead and that crazy Sullivan faux pas decision cost us 2 points.

And if it comes down to out of the 8 on percentage, that's the fact we never put teams to the sword - i.e. Richmond recently. Or we won by 1 point against North, where others get percentage boosters. Too many narrow wins.

 

[larrikan]

Looking for how I can legitimately want the scum to win this week and feel good about myself.

So this… they win but Cripps gets injured. Anyone who slams me for wanting him injured remember you’re asking me to want scum to win. Comon.


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[FromTheBoundaryLine]

The craziest part is IF we win all 3 games and finish 13-2-8, which is more or less 14 wins, we could still miss finals. That's outrageous in its own right.

True. I reckon this season will have the AFL considering finals wild cards or something similar. They can’t help tinkering and with Tassie coming on board soon that’s one more team missing out each year.

 

[Jen2310]

True. I reckon this season will have the AFL considering finals wild cards or something similar. They can’t help tinkering and with Tassie coming on board soon that’s one more team missing out each year.

 

[sr36]

I agree, it's a ground we just don't perform well on. Doesn't suit the way we play.
So I'm not expecting to win this.

2-7 is our win loss record in the last decade

I think it might suit us this year. It's one where our pressure might be able to lock them in.

 

[TW Sherrin]

I'd like to be optimistic but there is very little chance of making finals. Our % has really killed than small chance.

 

[sr36]

I'd like to be optimistic but there is very little chance of making finals. Our % has really killed than small chance.

If we finish with wins against Carlton Sydney Bris and Melb, and don't make it, it'll be a painful final series thinking about what could have been.

 

[Jelly Bean]

A normal year, that should be enough to qualify for finals. This is no normal year though. Even just one of the draws into a win might be enough.

St Kilda loss and the Freo draw are the two main ones that will haunt me if we miss this year. The Freo one we let go of a lead and that crazy Sullivan faux pas decision cost us 2 points.

And if it comes down to out of the 8 on percentage, that's the fact we never put teams to the sword - i.e. Richmond recently. Or we won by 1 point against North, where others get percentage boosters. Too many narrow wins.

Yep, not putting teams to the sword has been the problem for the last three years.

Even last week, Carlton came from 33 points down in the last quarter to lose by a few points only. We needed to turn that into a 35+ point win and get percentage points up.

 

[Jelly Bean]

If we finish with wins against Carlton Sydney Bris and Melb, and don't make it, it'll be a painful final series thinking about what could have been.

Brilliantly put. And Sydney away no less.

 

[Monco Matt]

For me obviously winning all 3 games is a must and Carlton beating the Hawks is an unfortunate must to get the Hawks out of the picture as I am not relying on the Tigers or North to do the job there. It looks like Freo is the one most vulnerable for us to replace in the 8 so they need to lose 2 out of 3 and all 3 of their games are tough.

The biggest problem for us as it all looks right now is beating Brisbane given the lethal form they are in and I bet they would love to get a small taste of revenge before September. We may just very well lose to Sydney if they are not completely shot and are still capable of responding to their 100pt loss as we are now without JDG after coming off a huge Grand Final type effort against the scum which may have been our salute to 2024. This week is a real coin flip.

The chances of eveything going our way are slim and for the life of me I just cannot wish for Carlton to beat the Hawks, I want them to lose, lose & lose and crash out of the 8, this would please me greatly. Ohhhh such a conundrum.

 

[Mollythedolly]

I think it might suit us this year. It's one where our pressure might be able to lock them in.

Lock them into our F50 or theirs?

 

[YouBeauty]

People obsessing over our percentage.
% is the least of our worries with 3 tough games coming up.

 

[Deleted member 133504]

don't really count that - the game meant nothing and you could tell.
Unfortunately it did mean something though because Geelong went on to be the only team to beat us - all three times we played them that year. The last of those games mattered!!! 2011 really was the one that got away.

Always enjoy the anecdotes from that 2011 fixture. The crazy thing was, we were up by like 2-3 goals at quarter time! I'm guessing you went to the game, Kes, so from your perspective, what happened? My feeling was, MM made some moves that turned it into a Geelong training drill. Absolute cr@p.

If they'd paid the advantage rule as they should have in the round 8 fixture against Geelong, Pendles would have sealed it late. No way was Woody kicking it from 50 out

2011 should be at home in the bookshelf as the highlights DVD. Like this year might be, it seems a DAMN shame we couldn't capitalise on the form from last year. But, we've had some horror injuries, and, playing round zero screwed our preparation, too.

Very realistic perspectives in this thread too, everyone. It's amazing feeling the Sydney game is more tangible as a win than Brisbane at the 'G. It felt like after the North game, we all crossed into clown world, where our form just fell off a cliff.

It would be incredible to win a flag from 7-8th. Could you imagine the braggadocio we'd have over Carlton supporters?

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Carlton. Always deathride Carlton.

We need Hawthorn to lose at least one. The most likely being the Carlton game.

Carlton are then a legit chance to lose one more or both of their last two. Hawthorn won’t lose their last two. No chance.

Obviously Carlton AND Hawthorn losing one or both of their last two would be great but seems incredibly unlikely.

All the permutations I’ve done end up with us in 8th with only one or two “50/50” games going our way.

6th with a lot of unlikely results going our way.

4th with everything going our way and us pumping Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne

 

[Deleted member 133504]

We need Hawthorn to lose at least one. The most likely being the Carlton game.

Carlton are then a legit chance to lose one more or both of their last two. Hawthorn won’t lose their last two. No chance.

Obviously Carlton AND Hawthorn losing one or both of their last two would be great but seems incredibly unlikely.

All the permutations I’ve done end up with us in 8th with only one or two “50/50” games going our way.

6th with a lot of unlikely results going our way.

4th with everything going our way and us pumping Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne

Bro... there is no chance we make the four? Lol. I couldn't even do predictions where we got that high...

We'd have to see the likes of North or Richmond win, wouldn't we? Hate to say it, but they'd be tanking this time of year

I also know you said "unlikely", but your narrative is always fun

 

[BigVic]

2011 was the one that got away from us.

It's a tough road to the finals for us with 2 challenging games in the next 2 weeks

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Bro... there is no chance we make the four? Lol. I couldn't even do predictions where we got that high...

We'd have to see the likes of North or Richmond win, wouldn't we? Hate to say it, but they'd be tanking this time of year

I also know you said "unlikely", but your narrative is always fun

I literally said we'd need everything to go our way

But yes, it's mathematically possible to make the Top 4

 

[sideswipe]

We need Hawthorn to lose at least one. The most likely being the Carlton game.

Carlton are then a legit chance to lose one more or both of their last two. Hawthorn won’t lose their last two. No chance.

Obviously Carlton AND Hawthorn losing one or both of their last two would be great but seems incredibly unlikely.

All the permutations I’ve done end up with us in 8th with only one or two “50/50” games going our way.

6th with a lot of unlikely results going our way.

4th with everything going our way and us pumping Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne

Gee thanks for the analysis Captain Obvious.

 

[leon123]

The thread title reminds me of a talking heads song... maybe apt for where we are at:

I'm feelin' okay this mornin'
And you know
We're on a road to paradise
Here we go, here we go

And it's very far away
But it's growing day by day
And it's alright, baby, it's alright

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Gee thanks for the analysis Captain Obvious.

Outside you trying to be a complete prick, explain why this was necessary

 

[loki04]

Bulldogs?
They look flag bound.

As they should such an underperformed team.

 

[loki04]

While we’re still a mathematical chance I’d prefer we try to win our games rather than throwing the towel in by trialing players in unfamiliar positions / playing kids etc - If we lose on Friday then by all means throw the magnets around.

There is no reason at all to not try win all 3 even if we can't make it we need to finish as high as possible.

 

[sideswipe]

Outside you trying to be a complete prick, explain why this was necessary

Because you responded to an obvious gag with a facile reading of the ladder and upcoming games. And your use of “permutations”.

I don’t try.


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[Jelly Bean]

There is no reason at all to try win all 3 even if we can't make it we need to finish as high as possible.

I think if we can't make it we need to finish as low as possible.