Preview Round 13 2020 - Brisbane Lions vs St Kilda, GABBA, Sunday August 23 3:35pm

[pauldrc]

Big O's crumbing goal against North was sublime....

 

[3KZ is Football]

Big O's crumbing goal against North was sublime....

I can't believe there were people on our board a couple of weeks ago saying he doesn't do enough around the ground! Oscar averages 0.59 goals a game, which is not too shabby given that our Full Forward, Dan McStay averages 0.73.

 

[DERRINALPHIL]

I can't believe there were people on our board a couple of weeks ago saying he doesn't do enough around the ground! Oscar averages 0.59 goals a game, which is not too shabby given that our Full Forward, Dan McStay averages 0.73.

I wonder what Dan would average if he could hit a 30 metre out dead in front shot with any certainty. I have a theory that Dan avoids getting the ball by marks close to goal because, deep down, he fears missing the resulting 'east' shot. This would explain that I have never seen him take say an easy chest mark right in front.

 

[jackess]

I wonder what Dan would average if he could hit a 30 metre out dead in front shot with any certainty. I have a theory that Dan avoids getting the ball by marks close to goal because, deep down, he fears missing the resulting 'east' shot. This would explain that I have never seen him take say an easy chest mark right in front.

... or played down back for 2 seasons

 

[beardancer]

Yeah, I'm not that convinced by the " if we were more accurate against north we would have flogged them" school of thought. I'm more interested in how we played.......which was very average. I thought our tackling was poor, chases were half arsed, commitment ( Eric, I'm looking at you!!! )..........skill levels( witho, I'm looking at you) were all sub par for us. Thank gawd for O, lachie, zork, Lyons.

Reality is they should have won that

 

[jonnobackpocket]

Yeah, I'm not that convinced by the " if we were more accurate against north we would have flogged them" school of thought. I'm more interested in how we played.......which was very average. I thought our tackling was poor, chases were half arsed, commitment ( Eric, I'm looking at you!!! )..........skill levels( witho, I'm looking at you) were all sub par for us. Thank gawd for O, lachie, zork, Lyons.

Reality is they should have won that

How do you figure they should have won that? We were in front all day beginning half way through the first 1/4, we missed 5 sitters early, we had more scoring shots and they kicked a goal after the siren and were still behind. How were they better?

 

[bird_man]

Brisbane Lions (2nd) Vs St Kilda (5th)
View attachment 937943

Overview

Well well well. Past Biggies put his hand up to do this one at the start the of the year thinking it would be a nice and easy relaxing preview. “Which Preview could I write in 5 minutes to quickly sum up a Brisbane win” I thought. “Which GABBA game will Charlie kick a bag and Neale collect another casual 3 Brownlow votes? I know, how about the cruisey 2nd vs 14th match” (2019 ladder).

Well don’t I look like a fool of a took now. From what originally looked like a comfortable win going into the start of the year is now setting itself up beautifully to be an absolute game to watch. Two good attacking teams that like to move the footy quickly. A Butler up one end and a Charlie up the other, a Steele and a Neale in the middle, a Jones and Clug running up the wings and two (in my opinion) excellent coaches (both ex-Hawthorn assistants) fighting it out for a top 4 spot in 2020.

This one just feels like its going to be fun to watch. Fast paced, attacking footy is on the menu. Lets just hope we have the great man Anthony Huddo calling it (please god hear me now no Eddie) and we can comfortably set up for a long day on the couch with a nice hot cuppa - all ready to launch into a Sunday arvo special.


Saints Last Five (4W – 1L)

• Saints Defeated Port 73 -44
• Saints Defeated Swans 101 – 48
• Saints Defeated Suns 78 – 74
• Cats Defeated Saints 93 – 34
• Saints Defeated Bombers 69 – 33

Key Players in Doubt?



Lions

• Adams (Foot)
• Martin (Back)
• Smith (Ankle)
• Cameron (Knee) - Maybe?/Maybe not?
  

Saints

• Brown (Leave)
• Dunston (Pecs)
• Hannebery (Hamstring)
• Gresham (Back)
• Webster (Hamstring)

Who to watch

Jack Steele
What a year Steele is having. He’s gone from playing as a defensive lock down tagger to now growing into a genuine damaging mid of the comp. Averaging nearly 22 touches and 11 contested a game its really his tackling and pressure acts which hurt the opposition most in the middle. 5.7 tackles a game place him in the elite category across the competition.

Dan Butler
In the words of BT Boy oh Boy Wowee what a year. Or alternatively for us lions fans aka Dan Cutler - Butler is possibly the most in-form small forward of the comp and arguably currently playing better footy then both Charlie Cameron and Tom Papley at the moment. Averaging just under 2 goals a game (which puts him third in the Coleman race) and 4.5 tackles Dan has absolutely gone to the next level in 2020. Butler is one of the big reasons for the saints increased success this year, and even with that shocker of a haircut his finishing in front of goal is absolutely….




Rowan Marshall and the rest of the Big Guys
I’m a big fan of this guy. Originally off the rookie list Marshall works very hard around the ground. Reminds me of a younger (and probably slightly better) Stef Martin. And he can float forward from time to time and kick the odd goal. AFL player ratings rate him as the 4th best ruck in the comp (behind Gawn, Grundy and Goldstein) so we can expect Oscar to have his hands full around the ground all game.

Along with Marshall, Paddy Ryder is also playing some good footy this year with the two forming a good 1-2 punch offensive team. Even with Oscars excellent mid-season form, I can’t help but feel this will be one game that having Stef Martin missing will hurt us. Not just for the general wear and tear of two ruckman competing against a single recognized ruck (one and a half if you count Eagles) throughout the day but also for that long high ball and contest down the line. But you throw in an in-form Max King and a Tim Membrey (who in my opinion is very much an underrated forward) and the saints really do have some talented talls to keep us busy around the ground. The way Harris, Oscar and Mcstay compete deep along the wings against the Saints tall's will be a fascinating viewing point throughout the game.


Team Stats




Here is the part where I was hoping to pick apart each team’s game plan a little more and see where the key differences in ball movement lie. But when I found myself looking through all the major categories I ultimately found a lot of similarities between the Lions and Saints and very few key differences to suggest where one team might out-performing the other. For example just to name a few:


Av. One Percenters: Lions 41.1, Saints 41.7

Av. Uncontested Possessions: Lions 160.9, Saints 172.9

Av. Contested Possessions: Lions 118.8, Saints 119

Av. Tackles: Lions 51.6, Saints 48.9

Av. Clearances: Lions 31.8, Saints 30.5


The inside 50s were slightly more in our favor with the Lions averaging about 7 more entries per game (Lions 47.2, Saints 40.8) but even the gap there isn’t really a game determining one. But I did find one category which clearly separate the two teams in 2020 and surprise surprise Lions fans its Goal Accuracy.

Saints are the most accurate scoring team this year scoring goals from 53.1% of shots. Lions (unsurprisingly) are dead last on 41.1%. We average more behinds per game than anyone else (12.1) and twice as many as the saints. We all know this. We’ve all cursed our TV at times during the year while watching a simple Charlie Cameron, Dan McStay or Eric Hipwood missed opportunity. But those numbers show a pretty stark difference over just half a season or so between the two teams.




On the plus side, the Lions do average the most shots on goals per game in the comp. We just need to take our chances more.

But what these stats really tell me is that the saints are a genuinely good team in 2020. To be honest, at times I have been a little unsure whether or not the Saints current ladder position really reflects where the team is truly at (as a genuine finals team and contender), or if maybe they’ve just had a little bit of luck on the field (and at times with team fitness) and are really more of a mid-table team over performing in 2020. There might be a little element of truth in both these points, however I’m feeling more and more confident saying that at their best the Saints are an exciting and explosive team that can score very quickly and punish you. If these teams stats tell us anything about what to expect on the weekend, it’s that if we don’t turn up to play and take this Saint Kilda outfit very seriously, they will punish us and kick away before we even know it. Lions need to respond after a very poor game on the weekend. If we put in another North Melbourne-like effort, then this game will be over by half time.


Lets Go a Little Deeper - Lets Talk About the Saints Scoring

I came across this little goal kicking nugget on the internet last week. “Where did you get it from Biggies? Is this true?” Great questions I hear you ask. And the truth is I found it somewhere on twitter and as we know - the internet never lies. So clearly this infographic music be true! Now enough with the questions, I'm trying to make a point.


View attachment 937985


If we ignore the Saints v Bombers game for now (as I don’t have those stats on hand) we can see here a clear blueprint as to how the cats (comfortably) put away the saints two weeks ago. Saints are a team that punish you on turnover, they run in waves and flood forward with ball in hand. They get as many numbers inside 50 as quickly as they can, overwhelm the defenders, play hopscotch with ball in hand and can kick a lot of goals from 10-20 meters out by a man sitting on his own in the square (or close too). The cats knew this and did a great job of stopping it. They didn’t allow easy shots (or open goals) from up close and this is what we must be do on the weekend to beat the saints. Get back quickly, set up, block the hole and not let Butler, Battle, Membrey, Billings etc run in and kick simple goals from the square. This may also feed back into as to why their goal accuracy is so high in 2020.



Predictions

Like most games of footy these days a lot will determine what happens in the middle. But I can’t help but feel our inside ball winning mids (Neale, Zorko, Lyons) will just be too strong for the saints. We should win the contested ball in this game. But what happens on the outside might be a different story. Saints are a good linking ball transition team and we will need to stop their uncontested ball movement up the wing by locking down on players like Jones, Hill, Billings etc.

The other key point for me is how the Saints score. The saints forward line is dangerous with a lot of players capable of hitting a major including Butler, King, Membrey, Kent, Battle and Billings just to name a few. If we let them take simple shots close to goal they will score fast and score big. If we can block that hole (maybe even play Harris as a loose intercepting man), flood that deep defense position and force then to take more difficult shots further out and on sharper angles, they will find it a lot harder to kick a winning score in this game. I want to see a lot of spoils this weekend and the golden fist in action.




So when I make a Lions prediction, I really have no idea if I’m making a call using my head or my heart. Maybe it’s because I know our team inside out but only watch a handful of Saints games each year. Last week I was feeling confident that the saints will put up a fight throughout the game but our class through the middle will just be a little too much for their on-ball team to handle. Today (after a slow, flat footed poor game on the weekend) I’m not feeling as sure. I think it will be close, fast exciting footy to watch but which lions team turns up we’ll just have to wait and see. Ultimately if we can limit Butlers influence up forward, Jones’s line-breaking speed around the ground and stop the bigger Saints bodies taking the uncontested intercept mark down the line, we should win it. And to be honest, if we are a legitimate finals team this year, we probably should win this game by 3-4 goals.

But Saints are not to be taken lightly. And of course there’s always the chance the worst goal kicking team of the comp comes out and kicks another 4-17 this weekend. So anything is possible.

But I will leave you with a famous ancient Chinese proverb to sum up this games preview.

“Shut down Butler and your football team shall win.” – Confucius 490 BC.

That's a great write up mate, good work.

After we failed our last test, I'm just hoping we make a fight of this.

 

[martinson]

How do you figure they should have won that? We were in front all day beginning half way through the first 1/4, we missed 5 sitters early, we had more scoring shots and they kicked a goal after the siren and were still behind. How were they better?

That's a very valid point.

If the roles were reversed and we were on the bottom of the ladder everyone would be saying we totally outplayed them all day and should've won by more.

 

[Dalions]

How do you figure they should have won that? We were in front all day beginning half way through the first 1/4, we missed 5 sitters early, we had more scoring shots and they kicked a goal after the siren and were still behind. How were they better?

I was never in any doubt that we would win the game, just pissed off at the way we were playing.
And allowed them to gain confidence and belief which made it harder and harder to hang on.

 

[jonnobackpocket]

I was never in any doubt that we would win the game, just pissed off at the way we were playing.
And allowed them to gain confidence and belief which made it harder and harder to hang on.

Agree, we did not play our best and it was frustrating but not for 1 second were we going to lose. To suggest in reality they should have won is just wrong.

 

[dlanod]

Agree, we did not play our best and it was frustrating but not for 1 second were we going to lose. To suggest in reality they should have won is just wrong.

There were moments were they were within one kick that I wouldn't claim that we weren't going to lose, but it definitely felt like a two goal lead was going to be sufficient. It turned out to be just, but Zurhaar dominating three minutes of game time was too little, too late.

 

[beardancer]

How do you figure they should have won that? We were in front all day beginning half way through the first 1/4, we missed 5 sitters early, we had more scoring shots and they kicked a goal after the siren and were still behind. How were they better?

They had half of their team out and we were hanging on in the last 10 minutes. We were pathetic. If north had had an ounce of composure and a touch better skill they would have done us.

Jonno I'm maybe being a bit hyperbolic but I'm not the sort of supporter who thinks his team is great and nothing can change that. I'm trying to be objective about our performance...... and it was lousy.

 

[mpal6]

There were moments were they were within one kick that I wouldn't claim that we weren't going to lose, but it definitely felt like a two goal lead was going to be sufficient. It turned out to be just, but Zurhaar dominating three minutes of game time was too little, too late.

I was pretty nervous when he lined up for the second last shot, was pretty close to goal post but thankfully a behind.. had he kicked it, anything could've happened.

 

[dlanod]

I was pretty nervous when he lined up for the second last shot, was pretty close to goal post but thankfully a behind.. had he kicked it, anything could've happened.

Fair chance we would've lost the following centre clearance but we'd been good enough to restrict them to only one goal every four inside 50s.

 

[T Rick]

I wonder what Dan would average if he could hit a 30 metre out dead in front shot with any certainty. I have a theory that Dan avoids getting the ball by marks close to goal because, deep down, he fears missing the resulting 'east' shot. This would explain that I have never seen him take say an easy chest mark right in front.

I get the sense that his goalkicking of late has been much better and he has kicked a few clutch goals this season. Give a dog a bad name...

 

[TheZork]

I get the sense that his goalkicking of late has been much better and he has kicked a few clutch goals this season. Give a dog a bad name...

I'm pretty sure Dan would be one of our most accurate goal kickers this year, if not the most accurate. Which both shows how terrible we've been and how he's improved it.

 

[Happy_Neale]

$251 to get a vote.

Edit - $501

Is this just your hyperbole or is there some excellent value Brownlow market I'm not aware of?

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I'm pretty sure Dan would be one of our most accurate goal kickers this year, if not the most accurate. Which both shows how terrible we've been and how he's improved it.

He is the most accurate goal kicker on the team for the year, going at 64%. This isn't consistent though. Between weeks 1-6 he kicked 6/7 shots (87%) and between weeks 7-11 he kicked 1/4 (25%). It should be noted all his misses from weeks 7-11 came from around the 50m mark, they weren't easy shots. Hopefully his goal against North gives him confidence moving forward.

 

[marooned]

Saints have speed across the park. Who goes with Hill? Does Zorks go with Jones? Does Answerth go with Butler or do we go with AhChee if he goes further up the ground? Some key matchups will make the difference this weekend

 

[DERRINALPHIL]

I get the sense that his goalkicking of late has been much better and he has kicked a few clutch goals this season. Give a dog a bad name...

I'm pretty sure Dan would be one of our most accurate goal kickers this year, if not the most accurate. Which both shows how terrible we've been and how he's improved it.

I will say that 3 or 4 of Dan's goal this year have been when he has been running into an open goal i.e. from a spillage. My worry is , once again, I believe that Dan avoids taking marks deep in our forward line to avoid having to take set shot at goal.

 

[dlanod]

I will say that 3 or 4 of Dan's goal this year have been when he has been running into an open goal i.e. from a spillage. My worry is , once again, I believe that Dan avoids taking marks deep in our forward line to avoid having to take set shot at goal.

I've called you out on this rubbish stat before, but here goes again - that's simply not true.

McStay has kicked three goals in general play from close range.

• One was really a set shot from a mark where he played on before anyone manned the mark. Definitely not a spillage.
• One was Bailey playing on from a free kick, with a handball to McStay to dribble it from a tight angle (honestly, a poor decision from Bailey and he's lucky McStay bailed him out). Definitely not a spillage.
• One was the closest to what you describe, a goal from a spillage, but even then it wasn't an empty goal square

I don't know why some of you have such an axe to grind about McStay but surely it's easier enough to do so without having to go to such lengths.

 

[Diehard Saint]

Excuse the intrusion on your board but what a great preview and write up.

I think this could be the game of the round, with two really exciting teams coming up against each other with a fair amount at stake.

You guys definitely have the home ground advantage, although due to this weird year we are getting great confidence at playing and winning away from home, something we have historically been trash at over the years.

We always seem to play better not being the favourites, but I really can’t pick a winner here. It should be a close one.

On another note, I’m barracking for Qld to get the Grand Final - I think you are owed it for helping the competition stay alive this year - something we pretty much housebound Victorians are very grateful for. Winter in Melbourne with no footy and stage 4 lockdown would have been bloody miserable.

Good luck for the rest of the season (after this game).

 

[luthor]

I've called you out on this rubbish stat before, but here goes again - that's simply not true.

McStay has kicked three goals in general play from close range.

• One was really a set shot from a mark where he played on before anyone manned the mark. Definitely not a spillage.
• One was Bailey playing on from a free kick, with a handball to McStay to dribble it from a tight angle (honestly, a poor decision from Bailey and he's lucky McStay bailed him out). Definitely not a spillage.
• One was the closest to what you describe, a goal from a spillage, but even then it wasn't an empty goal square

I don't know why some of you have such an axe to grind about McStay but surely it's easier enough to do so without having to go to such lengths.

AFL Tables - Daniel McStay - Stats - Statistics

afltables.com

Career goal kicking is 82 goals 49 behinds.

That's 62.60% goals to behinds ratio

 

[martinson]

AFL Tables - Daniel McStay - Stats - Statistics

afltables.com

Career goal kicking is 82 goals 49 behinds

What seems to stick in people's heads are the gimme's he misses . He hasn't done that lately ,nor had too many shots.

Cameron's way worse than him atm imo, Clug is just about hopeless, Zorks is no better than an even money hope and to be fair to Neale a lot of his have been difficult. On the flip side Cam seemed to have straightened out his yips and Linc is reasonably reliable. Oscar is about as good as you could hope . Ah Chee an unknown commodity but did nail a really hard one 2 weeks ago.

 

[luthor]

What seems to stick in people's heads are the gimme's he misses . He hasn't done that lately ,nor had too many shots.

Correct.

It's amazing how much more forgiving people are of shocking misses by other players in our side.

Charlie is a repeat offender if the set shot is anything else but an around the corner. Hugh has kicked 5.13 this season

If anyone cares to look up Hipwood's career figures, you'll find they are very ordinary,

But when it comes to MCStay:

"Aw yair.....I remember that sitter he missed two years ago"