Preview Round 21, 2024: GWS Giants v Hawthorn, Sun 4 August, 1.10pm AEST @ Manuka Oval

[earthworms]

We have some of the best small forwards in the league. Ginni, watson, croc aren't even 22 yet. Moore is 24 and will be AA. We've got bruest as well. Bennets in the vfl.

 

[Roddy]

We have some of the best small forwards in the league. Ginni, watson, croc aren't even 22 yet. Moore is 24 and will be AA. We've got bruest as well. Bennets in the vfl.

Dimma can swing forward and be highly effective. And all these blokes will probably keep a multiple AA small forward out when he finally gets healthy…

 

[triple treat]

If the Pies can find there mojo and do a number on the Blues (60-70 points), Demons beat the Dogs, Crows beat cats, Swans beat Port and we do a number on the Giants (60-70 points), then we could be top 4!
Stranger things have happened

 

[The Chad and I]

Giants aren’t going that well tbh.
Only thing is they’re at home and we’re travelling back to back.

Otherwise I’d have us at 70-80% faves to win this.

Right now I’m feeling 50:50.
The last time we travelled back to back weeks it was not pretty, but we’re a different team now.

 

[tommyk72]

Wouldn’t be surprised to see Breust either rested or sub this week.
I am guessing the Club is trying to keep he and Gunston as fresh as possible and will rotate them for experience.

With two sub appearances in a row, Finn is likely to be playing a full game this week or being dropped to VFL.

My guess is

IN - Gunston, Morrison
OUT - Breust, Finn

And this is where the flexibility of the team is so damn amazing. We've got multiple people who can sub into so many positions across the ground to allow us to bring in the personnel we want:
- 25+ pozzie and 2 goal half forwards (Ginni, Moore, McDonald)
- Centre square mids (Day, Newcombe and even Worpel)
- Forward pockets (Breust, Watson, Hardwick)

It allows us so much flexibility to sub people out and cover their strengths if we want to play into another strength (e.g. Gunston coming in to take some of the focus off Chol).

Really exciting stuff. Even though we have a stable 22, this allows us to do so many things in the lead up (e.g. play mind games re taggers) or even in the midst of games. Brilliant list management.

 

[tommyk72]

If the Pies can find there mojo and do a number on the Blues (60-70 points), Demons beat the Dogs, Crows beat cats, Swans beat Port and we do a number on the Giants (60-70 points), then we could be top 4!
Stranger things have happened

How much of your hard earned are you going to put on that multi? Reckon it could make you a very rich man!

 

[triple treat]

How much of your hard earned are you going to put on that multi? Reckon it could make you a very rich man!

Hahahaha might go put a 50 on it

 

[Manila_Hawk]

Giants aren’t going that well tbh.
Only thing is they’re at home and we’re travelling back to back.

Otherwise I’d have us at 70-80% faves to win this.

Right now I’m feeling 50:50.
The last time we travelled back to back weeks it was not pretty, but we’re a different team now.

View attachment 2063167

They are not at home Chad.

The game is in Canberra.

 

[Hawk88]

They are not at home Chad.

The game is in Canberra.

Splitting hairs

Its their home away from home similar to Tassie for us

 

[Sixpence]

Splitting hairs

Its their home away from home similar to Tassie for us

Not really, it's nowhere near the fortress Tassie is for us.

 

[KermitJagger]

Splitting hairs

Its their home away from home similar to Tassie for us

They have a losing record at Manuka Oval with 16w and 19l.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Giants aren’t going that well tbh.
Only thing is they’re at home and we’re travelling back to back.

Otherwise I’d have us at 70-80% faves to win this.

Right now I’m feeling 50:50.
The last time we travelled back to back weeks it was not pretty, but we’re a different team now.

View attachment 2063167

Giants are number 1 the comp for pressure over the last 6 weeks of footy.

They will hunt us.

 

[Hawk88]

They have a losing record at Manuka Oval with 16w and 19l.

Don't disagree but they have won both their games there this year

I don't think playing at Manuka gives us any leg up, going to be a tough road trip

 

[KermitJagger]

Don't disagree but they have won both their games there this year

I don't think playing at Manuka gives us any leg up, going to be a tough road trip

It's not a home ground advantage for us, for sure, but it's not exactly one for them either. We're a deadset certainty to have more supporters show up, much like last time we played them there.

 

[Sirlemsip]

MCG dimensions - 160m x 141m
Manuka dimensions - 162m x 138m

Nice wide ground that suits us, though it also suits GWS' style as well.

 

[DogDaySonny]

Giants are number 1 the comp for pressure over the last 6 weeks of footy.

They will hunt us.

According to Wheelo, GWS is third in pressure acts over the last five weeks behind Collingwood and Geelong. And Hawthorn is dead last.

Sometimes I don’t get these stats. I think I must be reading them wrong.

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

 

[TheFourPillars]

According to Wheelo, GWS is third in pressure acts over the last five weeks behind Collingwood and Geelong. And Hawthorn is dead last.

Sometimes I don’t get these stats. I think I must be reading them wrong.

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

Sometimes it shows the style of play Geelong and Collingwood rely on getting the ball back. We tend to get the ball first

 

[KermitJagger]

According to Wheelo, GWS is third in pressure acts over the last five weeks behind Collingwood and Geelong. And Hawthorn is dead last.

Sometimes I don’t get these stats. I think I must be reading them wrong.

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

Pressure rating does not mean pressure acts.

Pressure Points: Weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2, no pressure is 1.00.

Pressure Rating is the average of those points per 100 pressure acts. So if all you're doing is corralling you'll have a pressure rating of 120, where if you're always closing in on an opponent with pressure acts you'll be 225+.

Just always keep in mind that when the media are referring to stats, a lot of the time they're using the fancy shmancy stuff that us peons don't have access to. All we can see is "Pressure Acts" which can be anything from corralling to physical pressure, we don't get the weighting.

 

[Roddy]

What's our record there?

 

[KermitJagger]

What's our record there?

1-0

 

[DogDaySonny]

Pressure rating does not mean pressure acts.

Pressure Points: Weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2, no pressure is 1.00.

Pressure Rating is the average of those points per 100 pressure acts. So if all you're doing is corralling you'll have a pressure rating of 120, where if you're always closing in on an opponent with pressure acts you'll be 225+.

Just always keep in mind that when the media are referring to stats, a lot of the time they're using the fancy shmancy stuff that us peons don't have access to. All we can see is "Pressure Acts" which can be anything from corralling to physical pressure, we don't get the weighting.

So pressure rating actually measures the average quality of a side’s pressure act, not the amount of pressure actually being applied. But then all things being more or less equal in a game, pressure rating works well enough since the number of pressure acts is close enough from the two sides.

What they should really do is multiply pressure rating by pressure acts to get the actual pressure applied. You would think that a high applied pressure would be very disruptive to an opposition’s scoring chains and total score. And further, an applied pressure driven by pressure act quality rather than quantity should leave more players free to exploit the possible turnover a high quality act is more likely to generate.

Anyways, the stats nerds with access to the data would know if that intuition is correct or not. I’m sure it is fascinating to have access to the top secret room where the graphs and charts are on the big screen displaying the little actions that can lead to big outcomes.

 

[Roddy]

1-0

Our inexperience at the venue is not a good thing.

 

[KermitJagger]

So pressure rating actually measures the average quality of a side’s pressure act, not the amount of pressure actually being applied. But then all things being more or less equal in a game, pressure rating works well enough since the number of pressure acts is close enough from the two sides.

What they should really do is multiply pressure rating by pressure acts to get the actual pressure applied. You would think that a high applied pressure would be very disruptive to an opposition’s scoring chains and total score. And further, an applied pressure driven by pressure act quality rather than quantity should leave more players free to exploit the possible turnover a high quality act is more likely to generate.

Anyways, the stats nerds with access to the data would know if that intuition is correct or not. I’m sure it is fascinating to have access to the top secret room where the graphs and charts are on the big screen displaying the little actions that can lead to big outcomes.

They do that, every player does have a "Pressure Points" tally (sum of all pressure acts x their pressure rating) it's just not widely provided. We only get Pressure Acts, and when a media outlet decides to provide something else, we get that too.

 

[moginie]

Giants are number 1 the comp for pressure over the last 6 weeks of footy.

They will hunt us.

Good. We need to know what it's like. It's another learning game albeit a very important one.

And given our hunting in the past fortnight, it's not going to be a one way thing.

 

[Walshawk]

It's not a home ground advantage for us, for sure, but it's not exactly one for them either. We're a deadset certainty to have more supporters show up, much like last time we played them there.

It’s a sellout. Biggest game ever in Canberra.