Preview Round 5- Lions v Bulldogs, Etihad stadium, Saturday 22nd April 1.45pm.

Your tip and by how much?

  • lions 1-12 points.

  • lions 13-35 points.

  • lions 36-59 points.

  • lions 60+ thrashing.

  • draw

  • dogs 1-12 points.

  • dogs 13-35 points.

  • dogs 36-59 points.

  • dogs 60+ points.


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M Malice

Hall of Famer
Aug 31, 2015
33,347
78,104
By the Gabba.
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Valleys. Chelsea.
upload_2017-4-17_6-41-18.jpeg v upload_2017-4-17_6-42-52.jpeg

A quick look back over the first 4 rounds.
1) we need mature big bodied help for our under siege key position talls, too much of a load for Schache, Hipwood and Andrews to carry.
2) Our experienced mids (D.Beams, Rockliff, Zorko) have been great with good support in small cameo rolls from Robinson and Rich. Good teams have as many as 10-12 players rotating through the middle sharing the load.
3) Cutler been down this year, we desperately need run out of defense along with small pressure forwards.
4) Been happy with the form of some of our mid range guys ie. 3+ seasons. Mayes, Gardner, Robertson and Taylor have been good.
5) On the other hand really disappointed in Bell, Lester, Bewick, Cutler and McStay of the more mature guys who have played all the games.

Changes v the Bulldogs considering my rationale above.
outs-
McCluggage (rested/NEAFL), Berry (rested/NEAFL), Hipwood (rested/NEAFL), Bell (omit), Lester (omit), Cutler (inj), McStay (omit).

ins- Christensen, Walker, Close, Bastinac, Harwood, Dawson, Keays.

back.
Harwood, Walker, Gardner.
Mayes, Andrews, Rich.
mids.
Martin, Rockliff, D.Beams.
Zorko, Bastinac, C.Beams.
fwd.
Christensen, Schache, Taylor.
Cox, Close, Robinson.
int- Robertson (defense/wing), Dawson (defense) Keays (mid), Bewick (wing).
with Christensen and Robinson given extended stints in the midfield.

How will we go v the premiers?

The dogs are a team we aspire to emulate. They were widely considered a rabble of few short years ago with the loss of a coach, captain and appearing to be going nowhere, kudos to the dogs for what they have done, a massive turn around. With Fagan and Noble on board and the resulting changes hopefully we are on a similar path.

On the surface we should be in for a belting this weekend. Although the dogs have been winning they have not been playing their best footy, showing that great trait all really good teams have ie. finding a way to win when the form is down.

We need to bring the intangibles to this contest- desire, intensity, pressure, gut running and the fearlessness to take the game on through the corridor to have any chance of even being competitive. We have shown this in some really good patches over the first 4 rounds of the season. With bigger bodies Close and Walker to help out the younger keys and also lightening the midfield load on D.Beams, Rockliff and Zorko we will hopefully extend out those good patches this week.

Match-ups/tactics.
We need to curb the run and carry out of the back half from the likes of Murphy and Johannisen, would like us to manufacture getting our most dangerous smalls in Christensen and Robinson (while they are not playing in the midfield:)) on these 2 guys. Close to bash and crash the packs and stop Wood and Adams from taking those intercept marks they are so good at.

Lower the eyes, do not overuse the long bomb into the forward 50, Schache to play the lead up forward with Close a bit closer to home.

While Bontempelli and Stringer (in short bursts) are very dangerous it will and always should be about team defense/pressure up the ground, leaving our defensive 6 with as little to do as possible in the D50. With the injuries to Boyd and Cloke there is a possibility the dogs could go small in the F50, if that is the case we could throw Walker or Andrews forward in relatively long stints.

Harwood to be daring with his run out of defense and would rather see C.Beams in an outside midfield role, thought he showed some good glimpses there yesterday along with improved pace in a chase late in the game.

If Hipwood plays get him up the ground, he will take 1 out of 10 of those attempted screamers at this stage in his development. Use his pace and agility.

I have been banging on about this for years, we are the worst kick in team in the league, we seem to dither and procrastinate at the top of the square. Get that bloody ball back in quick after a point please!

Pretty simple if we want to be competitive- pressure, pressure, pressure. Everything flows from that.

A little bit of self indulgence.

We are the team from Brisbane
who wear the emblem of a lion.

Through who those media scribes
would like to draw a line.

We travel to the bulldog kennel
who have dreams of back to back.

But the boys in maroon, gold and blue
will undoubtedly show no fear and hunt them in a pack.

They have Bontempelli, Macrae and Stringer
the man they call the package.

Although out of the lions den will come
Hipwood, Andrews, Schache and of course then there is McCluggage.

Underestimate us at your peril dogs
do not drink your own bathwater.

For when the game is done and the lion eats the dog
we will take great delight in telling you where to stick your smartarse banner.


Tip.
We have had the miracle on grass and pandemonium at the gabba, this week there will be- The sensational etihad stunner. Lions by a point with set shot from 50 after the siren for the Schach attack.

Lets end with the obligatory Simpsons reference.


ywyib.jpg
 
Great preview man!

I can't help but feel players like Close, Dawson, Harwood and Bastinac (assuming all three get called up) will go into this game with something big to prove. Fagan has made it clear - perform and do the team things or play NEAFL until you prove you can. Close, Basti and Harwood all felt this first hand and you'd think they won't be taking this chance for granted.

The biggest thing we lacked against the tigers is tackle pressure and defensive running (I kept an eye out for this all game and too many players seemed to jog. Still better than last year but we took a step back from what we had shown). Basti and Harwood have definitely shown better work rate in these areas in the NEAFL so expect them to improve. Close has always impressed me as a big man who can impose himself with tackles/bumps so I expect him to do the same.

While we should lose this one, I expect Fagan to bring in some mature heads and we'll have a match similar to JLT2 but with more skill from both sides.
 
I think we are going to be annihilated sadly :(

Still, there's always hope and beer.
 

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I have the beer sitting in the cupboard already for this game! Our big chance to be competitive against the best after a poor outing yesterday. Ready for us to have a impact.
 
I have the beer sitting in the cupboard already for this game! Our big chance to be competitive against the best after a poor outing yesterday. Ready for us to have a impact.

Four Sink the Bismarcks, one for each quarter?

Should last about four games and avoid remembering any of those nasty second, third or fourth quarter fade-outs.
 
In: Close Out: Bell- We need Close to come in, crash the packs and take some pressure off Shack/Hippy. I think with Close in the side Hipwood will be able to roam the forward 50 more and thus use his mobility to greater effect which helps cover the fact that we are replacing a medium sized player in Bell with a taller player in Close.

In: Walker Out: McStay- Like for like. I think Walker deserves a crack as a KPD. Frost had a chance and was terrible(Harsh but true).

In: Christensen Out: Bewick- It will be good to regain the class and experience of Bundy. You take Bewick's poor skills out of the side and add Bundy's classy skills and that's a huge improvement. I'm looking forward to seeing Christensen and Robinson as a small forward duo.

In: Dawson Out: Cutler- Cutler is out injured, Dawson was BOG off the half back flank in the reserves and deserves a crack in the seniors.

In: Bastinac Out: McCluggage- Bastinac has gone back to the reserves and played some really good footy. We could use his experience back in the seniors.

In: Harwood Out: Berry- I'd like to see Harwood get a chance in the seniors to play on the half forward flank. He is a ferocious tackler and can provide that defensive pressure and he kicked 3 goals in the reserves over the weekend so hopefully he can impact the scoreboard. He's always been a pretty good kick for goal Harzy particularly on the run.

Ok so 6 changes is probably overkill and unlikely, however, when it comes to Bell, Bewick and McStay I think we have passed a point where we can leave them in the senior side and hope they turn it around. They've been atrocious the past three weeks and enough is enough imo. Cutler is out injured. McCluggage and Berry are fantastic young talents, however, I feel like having 2-3 1st year players in the seniors is making it very difficult for us to remain competitive. Bringing the younger players in only to have them struggle against the bigger bodies and cop a bit of a battering doesn't do them any favours and could knock their confidence particularly when the whole side is struggling. I'm against the idea of bringing in a debutant only to have them go straight out plus I thought Cedric was pretty good against the Tigers so Cox holds his spot whilst Clugga and Berry drop back to the reserves to continue to work on their games.

Adding 6 bigger bodied/experienced players to the side should see us perform at a much more competitive standard. 6 changes is pretty dramatic so if we were to make these changes I'd be leaving them to play for at least 3 weeks with maybe 1-2 changes max over that period to let the side settle a little bit.

Line up-

B Gardiner Andrews Robertson
HB Dawson Walker Mayes
C Rich Rockliff CBeams
HF Robinson Schache Harwood
F Christensen Close Hipwood
R Martin DBeams Rockliff
I Bastinac Taylor Cox Lester
 
In: Close Out: Bell- We need Close to come in, crash the packs and take some pressure off Shack/Hippy. I think with Close in the side Hipwood will be able to roam the forward 50 more and thus use his mobility to greater effect which helps cover the fact that we are replacing a medium sized player in Bell with a taller player in Close.

In: Walker Out: McStay- Like for like. I think Walker deserves a crack as a KPD. Frost had a chance and was terrible(Harsh but true).

In: Christensen Out: Bewick- It will be good to regain the class and experience of Bundy. You take Bewick's poor skills out of the side and add Bundy's classy skills and that's a huge improvement. I'm looking forward to seeing Christensen and Robinson as a small forward duo.

In: Dawson Out: Cutler- Cutler is out injured, Dawson was BOG off the half back flank in the reserves and deserves a crack in the seniors.

In: Bastinac Out: McCluggage- Bastinac has gone back to the reserves and played some really good footy. We could use his experience back in the seniors.

In: Harwood Out: Berry- I'd like to see Harwood get a chance in the seniors to play on the half forward flank. He is a ferocious tackler and can provide that defensive pressure and he kicked 3 goals in the reserves over the weekend so hopefully he can impact the scoreboard. He's always been a pretty good kick for goal Harzy particularly on the run.

Ok so 6 changes is probably overkill and unlikely, however, when it comes to Bell, Bewick and McStay I think we have passed a point where we can leave them in the senior side and hope they turn it around. They've been atrocious the past three weeks and enough is enough imo. Cutler is out injured. McCluggage and Berry are fantastic young talents, however, I feel like having 2-3 1st year players in the seniors is making it very difficult for us to remain competitive. Bringing the younger players in only to have them struggle against the bigger bodies and cop a bit of a battering doesn't do them any favours and could knock their confidence particularly when the whole side is struggling. I'm against the idea of bringing in a debutant only to have them go straight out plus I thought Cedric was pretty good against the Tigers so Cox holds his spot whilst Clugga and Berry drop back to the reserves to continue to work on their games.

Adding 6 bigger bodied/experienced players to the side should see us perform at a much more competitive standard. 6 changes is pretty dramatic so if we were to make these changes I'd be leaving them to play for at least 3 weeks with maybe 1-2 changes max over that period to let the side settle a little bit.

Line up-

B Gardiner Andrews Robertson
HB Dawson Walker Mayes
C Rich Rockliff CBeams
HF Robinson Schache Harwood
F Christensen Close Hipwood
R Martin DBeams Rockliff
I Bastinac Taylor Cox Lester
Looks good, id be dropping C.Beams and playing McCluggage or Berry. Claye just isn't up to it.
 
I like them to give Claye a few games.. if you had 2-3 games in a row and still struggling your had your run.
Not like we playing finals this year Fagan needs to work out who can play and who cannot.
Dropping players after one game in the seniors not really enough, he is slower then I like although he has some good skills.
I think the NEAFL is a big drop so unless the players have a few games its hard to tell. They also need at least one game to get used to the increase of pressure and speed in the big time.
 
I like them to give Claye a few games.. if you had 2-3 games in a row and still struggling your had your run.
Not like we playing finals this year Fagan needs to work out who can play and who cannot.
Dropping players after one game in the seniors not really enough, he is slower then I like although he has some good skills.
I think the NEAFL is a big drop so unless the players have a few games its hard to tell. They also need at least one game to get used to the increase of pressure and speed in the big time.
I get what your saying but with Claye it's the same crap he dished up last year, he is not a spring chicken anymore and is unlikely to improve IMO.
 

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Dunno about the wisdom of making 6 or 7 changes.
Freo Dockers say hi!

In all seriousness yeah as I said in my original post I don't know how likely it is. I'd happily reduce it to 5 but Cutler is injured. I just see two big issues with our senior line up over the past couple weeks. 1. Is we have several players performing extremely poorly and they are all experienced enough to be playing a lot better. I honestly don't know how McStay, Bell and Bewick can retain their spots based on the past 3 weeks. The other issue is we are carrying three 1st year players who are all very talented but are struggling to hold their own physically. I think you can afford to carry 1 of those types(maybe 2 if you are a well drilled, experienced side like the Crows) but 3? That makes it near impossible to remain competitive over 4 quarters. So basically I don't really see any other choice but to make a large number of changes if we want to 1. Improve our chances of being competitive and 2. Cut some deadwood who are severely underperforming at an unacceptable level.

In saying all that I'd be very surprised if we made any more than 4 changes.
 
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Out...
- Cutler (injured), McCluggage & Berry (rested), Bewick, McStay

In...
- Harwood, Christensen, Walker, Close, Bastinac

Like this:

FB: Walker, Andrews, Gardiner
HB: Robertson, Rich, Mayes
C: Bastinac, Zorko, Taylor
HF: Robinson, Harwood, Christensen
FF: Close, Schache, Hipwood
Foll: Martin, DBeams, Rockliff
Int: Lester, CBeams, Cox, Bell

Serious defensive mindset in Robinson, Harwood at HF. Try to counter their slingshot play.

Walker to get a go as KPD. He actually has pretty good disposal, which would help.

Would consider Barrett over Bastinac?

I would also consider Taylor out for Witherden, so he gets a go too.

I'd leave out Cox next week, thy way Cox, McCluggage and Berry have had two games each.

Seriously hope that Dawson isn't selected. Not good enough yet.

Paparone would be great to have as a Half forward for this game.
 
Agree with the principle of the changes proposed above. I think we aren't quite getting the balance right between picking our best 22 to win today versus picking for the future. Think 5 players in year 1 or 2 is too many, particularly given their is another 5 guys with under 50 games under their belt.

I'd be playing walker as a forward. He kicked 23 goals in 16 games last year, in a very very dysfunctional team. He should be better with beams added in midfield, and rocky and Martin in better form. Also 'only' 24 and 49 games experience himself so still room to develop. I recognise this is Unlikely to happen given fagan is playing him as KPD in reserves.

For me of the second stringers Bastinac is a proven good/average midfielder and should be in the 22 as a genuine mid in the midfield rotation, ahead of Bewick/bell who are very inconsistent average players who aren't able to play midfield.

Close physicality up forward should be rewarded IMO. Just his size compared to hipwood, schache and mcstay would be helpful in contests.

Christensen certainly seems to have done enough last week at neafl to show he is ready to play, very welcome return.

For their own confidence I wouldn't drop berry/cox/luggage after only 1-2 games. C beams also not dropped after 1 game but must know every week he is playing for his career. But I think it's time bell, Bewick, mcstay are reminded they aren't automatic picks at the lions. Hipwood could use a spell back in the reserves (remembering at a good club he may not have even debuted yet) and cutler may miss with injury.

Something like. (Playing shortish in defence against a smaller dogs team - no Cloke this week)

Mayes Andrews Gardiner
Lester Robertson rich
Christensen Zorko Bastinac
Martin beams Rockliff
Taylor close Robinson
Schache walker luggage
Cox berry c beams Barrett/Dawson

Out: mcstay, Bewick, cutler (assume injured), bell, hipwood (4 senior games, back to reserves to work on things).
In: Bastinac, close, walker, Barrett/Dawson, Christensen

Out ~250 games in 320 games. Could keep bell/Bewick (or cutler if he gets up) instead of Dawson/Barrett and increase the teams experience further, and reduce the number of changes.
 
It will be interesting to see if Fagon persists with 3 first year players. I wouldn't mind seeing Berry and Mcluggague have a rest and let Cox have another go. Leppa seemed to play the kids at all costs, time will tell.

Close needs to come in but not at the expense of Bell. I think he is important for contested ball inside 50. If we are going to play 3 talls robbo needs to play forward to help lock the ball inside 50.
 
It will be interesting to see if Fagon persists with 3 first year players. I wouldn't mind seeing Berry and Mcluggague have a rest and let Cox have another go. Leppa seemed to play the kids at all costs, time will tell.

Close needs to come in but not at the expense of Bell. I think he is important for contested ball inside 50. If we are going to play 3 talls robbo needs to play forward to help lock the ball inside 50.

Consider this though: Bell has spent equal amounts of time in defense and attack. According to his heat map mainly above the left back flank. He is averaging less tackles than Taylor. For a guy who should be a tackle machine, he is missing heaps of tackle attempts which lead to F50 entries for the opposition.

If we are to play Bell, it has to be in Robinsons forward roll. Assuming he isn't dropped, our forward line would look like:

Bundy, Close, Hipwood
Bell, Schache, Taylor

If we want Robinson in Bells spot, he has to be dropped. If he wants to be a back flanker/mid he needs to tackle the shit out of neafl players and get his defensive game going.
 
It always shits me that the AFL draw produces anomalies allowing one side to have an additional two day break (plus travel) than an another.

Unfortunately such anomalies are usually to the Lions detriment which is particularly disheartening when it's against the reigning premier.
 
Really surprised at the calls for McCluggage and Berry to be dropped. Berry is tough and McCluggage had 16 possessions. That's pretty good for a second game first year player.

Hipwood and Schache would seem to need another big body down there to take the gorilla defenders. We also need to up the pressure in the forward fifty.

In Close, Christensen, Dawson
Out Bell Bewick Cutler (inj)
 
Really surprised at the calls for McCluggage and Berry to be dropped. Berry is tough and McCluggage had 16 possessions. That's pretty good for a second game first year player.

Hipwood and Schache would seem to need another big body down there to take the gorilla defenders. We also need to up the pressure in the forward fifty.

In Close, Christensen, Dawson
Out Bell Bewick Cutler (inj)
Calls for them to be dropped shouldn't necessarily be seen as a negative thing mate. It is more about trying to get the balance right and manufacture a best 22 that they can thrive in. If that means they have to drop back to the NEAFL for a couple weeks and work on their games at that level whilst we chop and change a few things it could be beneficial both in the short and long term.
 
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I was against playing so many young blokes last week when I heard Cox was to debut. This week I think it's the blokes who have been here a few years that need to go. We won't win but at this stage I think Fagan knows we just have to get 50 games into our future ASAP. One more poor performance from the likes of McStay, and Bewick and I want them in the reserves for a month.

In: Bundy, Witherden
Out: Bell, Cutler
 
Dawson not deserving of a call up Im afraid.
Harwood, Barrett, Bastinac, Witherden all before him.
 
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