Preview Round 6 2024 – Carlton vs GWS Giants, Saturday April 20, 4.35pm AEST, Marvel Stadium

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Sep 6, 2012
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According to Nathan Schmook on the AFL website a couple of weeks ago, “Carlton has the most upside of the undefeated teams”. Yesterday afternoon, the winless Crows didn’t agree.

They might have been inspired by St. Kilda, who came within a whisker of inflicting our own first loss of the season. The Saints were always going to be a tough ask and so it proved.

For most of the match, the game plan was firm. We moved the ball forward as quickly as possible, regardless of how we got our hands on it. Well-beaten in the clearances, and a few other key stats (the free kick differential was a ridiculous 9-20 in their favour), we held it together until the last 10-12 minutes. Kingsley thought we shut up shop too early and let them back into the contest. From where I sat, it looked like we’d run out of gas. But to allow a run of six unanswered goals was unsettling.

Next Saturday, we take on the previously undefeated Blues at Marvel Stadium. Both teams are coming off six-day breaks, and will need to replace key players.

As I understand it, the AFL mandates a minimum 12-day return-to-play concussion protocol, which means Sam Taylor won’t be available this week or against Brisbane on ANZAC Day. Also, we’re almost certain to be without Stephen Coniglio, after he suffered a nasty-looking knee injury.

Here’s the likely line-up:

FB [36] Harry Perryman, [19] Nick Haynes, [39] Connor Idun
HB [6] Lachie Whitfield, [44] Jack Buckley, [7] Lachie Ash
C [10] Jacob Wehr, [22] Josh Kelly, [17] Finn Callaghan
HF [16] Brent Daniels, [26] Jake Riccardi, [14] Toby Bedford
FF [4] Toby Greene, [23] Jesse Hogan, [46] Callum M. Brown
FOL [32] Kieren Briggs, [8] Callan Ward, [12] Tom Green

IC [5] Aaron Cadman, [27] Harry Himmelberg, [28] Harvey Thomas, [33] Xavier O'Halloran

SUB [19] James Peatling

We’re lucky to have players the calibre of Ward and Haynes available as replacements, with Ward making a sooner-than-expected return through the VFL yesterday. Toby McMullin might be another consideration.

Carlton are not without their own problems, and will be missing Adam Saad and Mitch McGovern through hamstring injuries suffered against the Crows. It’s unclear what will happen with former Dockers gun Adam Cerra, who was a late withdrawal from the Crows match also with a hamstring strain. Nonetheless, the bookies have them as comfortable favourites to win.

This was always going to the match of the round and a likely sell-out. How times have changed since no-one wanted to come and watch us. I envy you Melbourne Giants!

For the rest of us, if you’re watching on TV, expect unbearable bias from the commentators.

I believe that we will win.;)
 
It’s unclear what will happen with former Dockers gun Adam Cerra, who was a late withdrawal from the Crows match also with a hamstring strain.
One week injury? :D
 

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I can see a few more changes than the 2 injured in yesterdays game and yes midfield pressure will need to be high to slow the inside 50's and force them to be shallow and I think Kingsley will back in the experienced tall defenders to match up on Curnow and Mckay and although undersized v Mckay Buckley I see as the match up and he will be relying on the mids to slow the entries down and also support from HH and Haynes. I dont see Aleer as ready yet for that match up and Keefe ddint play yesterday and he is too slow to play in the back half
Ward for Coniglio and then Haynes for Buckley and then if Rowston comes in if they see the game being more contested, Jones if they see him as ready or Angwin for some more outside run
Hoping Briggs is good and no more easy games until the bye. Blues, Lions, Swans, Bombers, Dogs and then the Cats
 
I hope that Kingers can get to the nub of why we gave up the last 6 goals of the match against Saints, as we won't want to give up runs of goals against Carlton (and in past years, that has been our downfall, unable to arrest momentum against us). Partly we weren't getting value for our own attacks, scoring 1.4 in that last quarter, and 3.4 the preceding quarter when there were eminently gettable goals on offer. The compounding effect of injuries (Taylor early, Cogs in the last quarter, with both Briggs and Kelly also off for niggles at times in the last) no doubt didn't help, but the rest of the team needed the composure to keep attacking and scoring.

I am also increasingly troubled by our midfield. While they are excellent in attack when we get our hands on the ball - look at the stats for score involvements - they are having difficulty getting the ball at the source, in the contest. The week prior, we were struggling with that until the last quarter against the Suns mids, and we struggled for much of the Saints game but went backwards in that last quarter. In part, it seems to hang on how Briggs is going. He's not a great hit out specialist but is a clearance getter - a role in which Rowan Marshall outshone him yesterday. Hopefully, whatever niggle he had to his arm yesterday is fixed for the battle against Carlton. Presumably de Koning will be in the Blues team, but it remains to be seen if they match up Pittonet with him again. As a late in for Cerra, Pittonet seemed a strange choice, and certainly the Blues fans think it was a selection error. But Pittonet is a bit like Briggs, less hitouts but more clearances, while de Koning probably gives a bit more around the ground.

I will presume Ward comes back in for Cogs. It loses us a touch of speed and maneuverability in the centre, but shouldn't affect our clearances or defence. We do need the rest of the midfield team to pick up some extra load in getting first hands on the ball.

Down the back, losing Sam Taylor especially for this game with the "twin towers" heading their attack is a massive loss. Taylor still hadn't lost a 1-on-1 contest, whereas Buckley - while he gets to a lot of contests and spoils and tackles well - loses about a third of his contests, so will give up more goals on McKay/Curnow. I would presume that HH will move into that "second KPD" role, with Haynes assuming his usual third tall/interceptor role. Both Haynes & Idun will move around to support the defence, and give those guys a spell, of course.

The other option would be to rely on Buckley/HH/Idun and bring in someone else - a rebounder with more speed etc - that is, go on the attack to try to outscore the Blues rather than be defensive. That has been our strength, and we scored most of our points from turnovers against Saints (plus a lot of the previous weeks too). Of course, some of that comes from our excellent team defence, which is weakened without Taylor, but a lot too from our zippy players such as Binga, Snooze & Harvey Thomas who forced turnovers or intercepted Saints' kicks due to their speed over 5-10 metres. Someone like Fahey, who has had a couple of good VFL games would be an option. Another might be Darcy Jones running through the back half of the ground and wings. Do I expect Kingers to go that way? No, probably not.

Overall, Saints were a tougher matchup than previous games - Norths, Eagles at Optus Stadium, Suns - so this week ratchets up the level of the opposition again. Blues at the MCG, notwithstanding any injury issues (which realistically simply mirror ours to an extent) will be a very tough test, and one pitching Kingsley's tactical nous against Voss.

As LotG said, we'll face another biased commentary team, and no doubt, another lopsided penalty count. But we certainly need to learn to deal with that being a factor, because I don't see it changing.
 
a significant positive is the self belief in the team that Kingsley has instilled - we have not been playing well consistently, and are yet 5-0 and first on the ladder, with the best ever start in our history.
 
Great chance to try Leek for a couple of games.
Need to know what he’s capable of and this is the ideal time to find out.
I’d play Haynes before Leek.
Personally I think we may have a couple of losses coming. I think teams move the ball to easily on us, and our pressure is a bit off.
 

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Agree re: the potential losses.
No team can be up for a whole season. I think they’re in a good spot for the time of year.
Also agree Haynes the safer option. Would just like to see opportunities for some younger guys.
Yep… I just think we have Curnow and McKay, and then Daniher and Hipwood.
Out of those I’d definitely look to play Aleer against Hipwood if we were to give him a run in the ones.
 
Hope we go with Aleer or Keefe this week and don’t make the mistake of playing Haynes as key back. We just need a stopper who can bring it to ground against big Key forwards a Haynes isn’t that.

Ward straight swap for Cogs. Really want to see Jones get a game cause he will keep his spot once selected but doesn’t look to be an opening at this point.


Although they have been winning the blues haven’t been playing that well all season and just scrapping by. They. Have more injuries than us (we are only missing 2 from our best 23)
 
Yes, hard to see who would be dropped for Jones right now.
Yeah, I expected Harvey Thomas might have flagged about now - and last game he did seem to, being subbed out - but I thought he was great in the Saints game and deserves to hold his spot. Pressured, tackled, showed his speed over 5 to 10 metres to cut off Saints' kicks. Plus kicked a great roving goal. Deserves to keep his place.
 
Harvey was awesome again, wonder if there's going to be any heat on Bedford's spot coming up soon. His pressure has been really good despite i50 tackles being down from last year and probably generally not as good as it was last year but still quality and then doesn't offer a whole heap as a goal scorer only has 3 on the year so far and he's never shown the ability to be a consistent scoreboard threat. Wonder if they think they can sub in Jones or Gothard and maybe a lost a little bit defensively but see a bigger boost in offense. Was okay last year when Bedford wasn't giving you a whole heap offensively when he's pretty much the best forward half pressure player in the comp but now that he's dropped from that level to simply really good pressure player I'm not sure it's as worth it. Would still give him a few more weeks but if Gothard and Jones keep stacking performances in the VFL like they did this week then it's something I'd consider strongly.
 
I hope that Kingers can get to the nub of why we gave up the last 6 goals of the match against Saints, as we won't want to give up runs of goals against Carlton (and in past years, that has been our downfall, unable to arrest momentum against us). Partly we weren't getting value for our own attacks, scoring 1.4 in that last quarter, and 3.4 the preceding quarter when there were eminently gettable goals on offer. The compounding effect of injuries (Taylor early, Cogs in the last quarter, with both Briggs and Kelly also off for niggles at times in the last) no doubt didn't help, but the rest of the team needed the composure to keep attacking and scoring.

I am also increasingly troubled by our midfield. While they are excellent in attack when we get our hands on the ball - look at the stats for score involvements - they are having difficulty getting the ball at the source, in the contest. The week prior, we were struggling with that until the last quarter against the Suns mids, and we struggled for much of the Saints game but went backwards in that last quarter. In part, it seems to hang on how Briggs is going. He's not a great hit out specialist but is a clearance getter - a role in which Rowan Marshall outshone him yesterday. Hopefully, whatever niggle he had to his arm yesterday is fixed for the battle against Carlton. Presumably de Koning will be in the Blues team, but it remains to be seen if they match up Pittonet with him again. As a late in for Cerra, Pittonet seemed a strange choice, and certainly the Blues fans think it was a selection error. But Pittonet is a bit like Briggs, less hitouts but more clearances, while de Koning probably gives a bit more around the ground.

I will presume Ward comes back in for Cogs. It loses us a touch of speed and maneuverability in the centre, but shouldn't affect our clearances or defence. We do need the rest of the midfield team to pick up some extra load in getting first hands on the ball.

Down the back, losing Sam Taylor especially for this game with the "twin towers" heading their attack is a massive loss. Taylor still hadn't lost a 1-on-1 contest, whereas Buckley - while he gets to a lot of contests and spoils and tackles well - loses about a third of his contests, so will give up more goals on McKay/Curnow. I would presume that HH will move into that "second KPD" role, with Haynes assuming his usual third tall/interceptor role. Both Haynes & Idun will move around to support the defence, and give those guys a spell, of course.

The other option would be to rely on Buckley/HH/Idun and bring in someone else - a rebounder with more speed etc - that is, go on the attack to try to outscore the Blues rather than be defensive. That has been our strength, and we scored most of our points from turnovers against Saints (plus a lot of the previous weeks too). Of course, some of that comes from our excellent team defence, which is weakened without Taylor, but a lot too from our zippy players such as Binga, Snooze & Harvey Thomas who forced turnovers or intercepted Saints' kicks due to their speed over 5-10 metres. Someone like Fahey, who has had a couple of good VFL games would be an option. Another might be Darcy Jones running through the back half of the ground and wings. Do I expect Kingers to go that way? No, probably not.

Overall, Saints were a tougher matchup than previous games - Norths, Eagles at Optus Stadium, Suns - so this week ratchets up the level of the opposition again. Blues at the MCG, notwithstanding any injury issues (which realistically simply mirror ours to an extent) will be a very tough test, and one pitching Kingsley's tactical nous against Voss.

As LotG said, we'll face another biased commentary team, and no doubt, another lopsided penalty count. But we certainly need to learn to deal with that being a factor, because I don't see it changing.
Could Briggs be rested, give pruess a game?
Or could Aleer play, and be the back up ruck?
Have more time for Cadman on a HFF, with Toby to spend more time in the midfield?
 
Harvey was awesome again, wonder if there's going to be any heat on Bedford's spot coming up soon. His pressure has been really good despite i50 tackles being down from last year and probably generally not as good as it was last year but still quality and then doesn't offer a whole heap as a goal scorer only has 3 on the year so far and he's never shown the ability to be a consistent scoreboard threat. Wonder if they think they can sub in Jones or Gothard and maybe a lost a little bit defensively but see a bigger boost in offense. Was okay last year when Bedford wasn't giving you a whole heap offensively when he's pretty much the best forward half pressure player in the comp but now that he's dropped from that level to simply really good pressure player I'm not sure it's as worth it. Would still give him a few more weeks but if Gothard and Jones keep stacking performances in the VFL like they did this week then it's something I'd consider strongly.

I keep look at at Thomas, wehr and Peatling as the ones most likely to make way for Jones but they are all playing their role nicely and deserve to hold their spot.

Bedford has been serviceable but is down on output from last year and I think that is reflected in our forward half game being a little bit off what we got to last year (at this stage). It if this is the week to give him a rest but he is going to start feeling the heat soon. Jones is the one I’m most excited for but I think Gothard is going to come hard for the small forward role too. Both have the speed to be able to pressure like Snooze but look to have a few more tricks offensively. Brown’s spot was a question mark pre season but he has been super strong so far.
 

Strung out: Injury woes make Blues' tough stretch even rougher

Carlton faces a torrid five-game run with a list depleted by a series of soft-tissue injuries

CARLTON will begin a daunting five-match stretch without a trio of injured stars with Adam Cerra, Mitch McGovern and Adam Saad all expected to spend time on the sidelines as they battle hamstring injuries.

McGovern and Saad were both withdrawn midway through Saturday's disappointing defeat to Adelaide, while Cerra was pulled from the game at the eleventh hour after he injured his hamstring at training earlier in the week.

The Blues are still determining the extent of all three of their respective hamstring problems, though have already conceded that the trio will miss this Saturday's fixture against the unbeaten Giants.

Saturday's game against the table-topping Greater Western Sydney kickstarts a difficult stretch that also includes fixtures against Geelong, Collingwood, Melbourne and Sydney.

Marc Pittonet was included for Cerra on Saturday and could be trusted again, while Caleb Marchbank appears a likely inclusion to replace McGovern after missing the last fortnight with concussion and then back tightness.

Fellow defender Lewis Young was also impressive in the VFL on Sunday, finishing with 19 touches and 10 marks having been dropped from the senior side last month to accommodate the return of Jacob Weitering.

Alex Cincotta was managed from the side's VFL defeat to Collingwood on Sunday, but could be an option to replace Saad, while Lachie Cowan is another candidate after claiming 24 disposals and nine marks in the reserves.

Uncapped wingman Jaxon Binns is another option to come into Carlton's depleted team, having again impressed at VFL level after winning 25 disposals and kicking a goal in Sunday's one-point loss to the Pies.

Cerra, McGovern and Saad add to an extensive Carlton injury list that currently features David Cuningham (calf), Sam Docherty (knee), Lachie Fogarty (wrist), Jack Martin (hamstring), Jesse Motlop (hamstring) and Jack Silvagni (knee).

However, midfield superstar Sam Walsh made a successful return from an ongoing back injury on Saturday in a best-on-ground performance for the Blues that included 34 disposals, eight clearances and 13 tackles.
 
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