Autopsy Round 6 vs North Melbourne @ The Bank - 23/04/23 - 4:40pm

[MarcLocksCrustySock]

Sheezel may use this to lock in his Rising Star award if we don’t play smart.

We won't be playing smart if you look at history.

 

[GC2015]

Will it be wet also?

Google suggests a 5% chance of rain in Carrara at 4:00pm on Sunday.

Reckon Dew saw how Lions got 33 marks inside their 50 last week against North and thinks we can do that as well…

It’s such a Suns thing to try and do, too.

Anyone who watched that game knows how much the North defenders struggled to stop Brisbane's three tall forwards (17 scoring shots). The Lions have also dropped Fort this week so they recognise a super tall forward line isn't going to work against every team, but it did work against North.

 

[geoffneverflies]

For those wondering what the finals picture looks like, the Suns have to go 12-6 from here to make finals. At the moment we are probably only favourites to win 4 of those 18 games. If we look at the games on the GC they should be looking to win vs:

North on Sunday
Adelaide
Hawthorn
maybe Carlton/ maybe Brisbane

There's only North away and Giants away where we might be favourites on the road. If the Suns are going to make something of the season they have to win 6 more games against teams that should probably be better than us. It's quite a mountain to climb and if they get any where near the summit I will be ecstatic.

 

[GC2015]

For those wondering what the finals picture looks like, the Suns have to go 12-6 from here to make finals. At the moment we are probably only favourites to win 4 of those 18 games. If we look at the games on the GC they should be looking to win vs:

North on Sunday
Adelaide
Hawthorn
maybe Carlton/ maybe Brisbane

There's only North away and Giants away where we might be favourites on the road. If the Suns are going to make something of the season they have to win 6 more games against teams that should probably be better than us. It's quite a mountain to climb and if they get any where near the summit I will be ecstatic.

You're basing that prediction on current form and not considering any rate of improvement throughout the season, which is surprising because we literally did that last year; started 2-5 before winning 5 of the next 6 including top 8 teams Sydney and Fremantle. We also beat another top 8 team Richmond as well as pushing other top 8 teams like Collingwood and Brisbane all the way. Even the almost away win against Port Adelaide was impressive and none of that seemed possible back when we were sitting 2-5 after round 7.

Right now we just have to focus on beating the 14th placed Roos and 15th placed Tigers over the next fortnight. We do that and we'll be right back in the hunt with a record of 3-4. The ladder predictor suggests we'll be 1 win behind 7th or 8th if we get the 2 wins over the next 2 rounds so that's very workable and momentum can take you a long way in this sport. You only have to look at what Essendon / St Kilda are doing right now to see evidence of that.

The way you've described it seems daunting but think about it this way - whichever team is placed 8th in 2 weeks from now will very likely have a record of 4-3 and will need to win another 9 games to play finals this season vs the 10 games we would be required to win should we beat North and Richmond over the next fortnight. Just 1 extra win when compared to the team that's inside the top 8.

 

[TheGoldPersons]

Watch Aaron Hall

43

Aaron Hall

Age

33

Ht

185cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.0

5star

K

11.8

4star

HB

7.2

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

3.3

5star

MG

268.3

4star

D

14.9

4star

K

8.9

4star

HB

6.0

3star

M

2.3

2star

T

2.6

4star

MG

268.3

4star

D

13.2

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.6

5star

have his best game in years lol

 

[MarcLocksCrustySock]

Watch Aaron Hall have his best game in years lol

100%

 

[Jirik13]

Watch Aaron Hall have his best game in years lol

I don’t think so. We will feast of his turnovers And he will do hammy in 2nd half.

 

[Emerald Sun]

Watch Aaron Hall have his best game in years lol

I hope he gets BOG and they lose by 60 points

 

[Jirik13]

For those wondering what the finals picture looks like, the Suns have to go 12-6 from here to make finals. At the moment we are probably only favourites to win 4 of those 18 games. If we look at the games on the GC they should be looking to win vs:

North on Sunday
Adelaide
Hawthorn
maybe Carlton/ maybe Brisbane

There's only North away and Giants away where we might be favourites on the road. If the Suns are going to make something of the season they have to win 6 more games against teams that should probably be better than us. It's quite a mountain to climb and if they get any where near the summit I will be ecstatic.

After round 8 top 8 is usually settled with possibly one more change historically. Again looking at 1W:4L start, most clubs don't make finals from that position. We got I guess 5-10% chance?

But I do think it's more about how we play. Every game is winnable, it's incredibly close competition. Next 4 games are all winnable including Demons who were dismantled by Essendon and we play them at Heritage.

But we do have to start playing better. If we continue this terrible set-shot conversion, not taking opportunities we are 0% chance. Healthy Witts seems like a critical factor like it or not. We got a healthy list now minus Witts and players coming back from injuries got now some games under their belt.

Personally, I could not care less about line-up. Just show me consistency, grit, don't be afraid and take the game on, convert and win.

 

[geoffneverflies]

You're basing that prediction on current form and not considering any rate of improvement throughout the season, which is surprising because we literally did that last year; started 2-5 before winning 5 of the next 6 including top 8 teams Sydney and Fremantle. We also beat another top 8 team Richmond as well as pushing other top 8 teams like Collingwood and Brisbane all the way. Even the almost away win against Port Adelaide was impressive and none of that seemed possible back when we were sitting 2-5 after round 7.

Right now we just have to focus on beating the 14th placed Roos and 15th placed Tigers over the next fortnight. We do that and we'll be right back in the hunt with a record of 3-4. The ladder predictor suggests we'll be 1 win behind 7th or 8th if we get the 2 wins over the next 2 rounds so that's very workable and momentum can take you a long way in this sport. You only have to look at what Essendon / St Kilda are doing right now to see evidence of that.

The way you've described it seems daunting but think about it this way - whichever team is placed 8th in 2 weeks from now will very likely have a record of 4-3 and will need to win another 9 games to play finals this season vs the 10 games we would be required to win should we beat North and Richmond over the next fortnight. Just 1 extra win when compared to the team that's inside the top 8.

Yeah the team won't be looking at it the way I've laid it out. Its much more manageable if u break it up into smaller legs. I mean we have every chance of beating the tigers next week with the way their going and then we look much better. I just wanted to illustrate how much we have to step it up. I focussed on home games cos I think our best chance of threatening top 8 is to win like 8 home games and make heritage a tougher place to visit.

 

[geoffneverflies]

In previewing the north game the big point i see is that we are last for marks in the league.

With such a tall side of at has to change this weekend. If the talls don't kick goals something really has to change in the forward line.

Have to keep north to a low score otherwise I won't trust the D against anybody.

Picking Andrew when there isn't a spot for holim is only slowing his development and hurting his confidence.

Keep LDU quiet and we win easy

AFL R6: Gold Coast Suns vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Preview

 

[GC2015]

Yeah the team won't be looking at it the way I've laid it out. Its much more manageable if u break it up into smaller legs. I mean we have every chance of beating the tigers next week with the way their going and then we look much better. I just wanted to illustrate how much we have to step it up. I focussed on home games cos I think our best chance of threatening top 8 is to win like 8 home games and make heritage a tougher place to visit.

Fair enough. It just seemed like a very negative way of looking at the season when we'll very likely be right back in it next week but I can see what you meant now and I take your point. We have to get going and fortunately we play teams that are currently ranked 14th / 15th over the next fortnight so we have ample opportunity to get going. The only thing I'll add is that if you look at our opening month of the season now in retrospect, we were dealt a pretty difficult draw.

 

[NonPhixion]

hello, just wondering who will play the 2nd ruck role, will it be Chol or Casboult ? Thanks in advance

 

[KaySwizzle]

hello, just wondering who will play the 2nd ruck role, will it be Chol or Casboult ? Thanks in advance

Good question. Both have done it this year (but never really in the same team at the same time) and last year it was mostly Chol.

For this game maybe Chol is more centre bounce support, while Casboult might do more forward 50 rucking when Witts is off.

Honestly have no idea, but I’d guess Chol to ruck more if I had to choose. Either way, Witts might need help with him seemingly coming off some kind of injury management.

 

[Young_Guns]

Danger game. In years gone by when we were in the position North is in (not that we aren’t still in the same position) this is a game we would come out and win out of nowhere before going on like a 10 game losing streak. Young team, a few games in to a long season, important player out with injury, coming off a belting, Goldie’s 300th.

No excuse for us not to be on from the first bounce. Give them a sniff of a win and they will run over us.

 

[Deleted member 2402071]

Death by a thousand cuts: The issue struggling Suns must fix

Good analysis by Fish.

 

[SandyToes]

No one disagrees that if we were 10% better across the ground we’d be at least 3 and 2
The problem is that’s the nature of elite sporting competitions
You’re top of the table and off 5% you lose to the bottom team
What we as supporters were led to believe was that there would be fewer of the fade outs that have cursed this Club since day 1
Again that would have taken more than just incremental improvement over the off season and as we’ve seen whatever we did in Summer so far doesn’t appear to have changed much


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Jirik13]

Death by a thousand cuts: The issue struggling Suns must fix

Good analysis by Fish.

Let's see this evening. It should be fascinating to watch. Will Witts play? Are we too tall? It will be wet grass after HT. Almost time to travel to GC to watch both games for me. Pretty excited. I fully expect majority crowd (total 6-8K?) to be North fans. They seemed to be pumped for Goldstein's 300 game and a lot of them trash us. Added North to my dislike teams.

I would love one day to be part of full Heritage stadium with majority crowd being Suns fans. Who knows when or if it will ever happen. It must be frustrating for players having basically no home crowd advantage, not extra frees, getting booed.

 

[The Gotham Penguin]

I can see Dew doing a late change or two - Andrew out for Constable.
Witts out for Moyle.

 

[Emerald Sun]

I would love one day to be part of full Heritage stadium with majority crowd being Suns fans.

Have to start winning and this will happen. I'll be there today and cheering the boys on rain or shine

 

[Deleted member 2402071]

I can see Dew doing a late change or two - Andrew out for Constable.
Witts out for Moyle.

Goldstein will absolutely destroy Moyle around the ground if that eventuates. Dew better have a plan B in place.

 

[Jirik13]

Have to start winning and this will happen. I'll be there today and cheering the boys on rain or shine

Me too Time to enjoy footy. Rooting for boys.

 

[SandyToes]

Have to start winning and this will happen. I'll be there today and cheering the boys on rain or shine

I’m going to try and catch the last half of the VFL as well
I find myself enjoying that more these days


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Emerald Sun]

I’m going to try and catch the last half of the VFL as well
I find myself enjoying that more these days


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Was actually thinking the same thing

 

[Supersuns]

I can see Dew doing a late change or two - Andrew out for Constable.
Witts out for Moyle.

Constable shouldn't ever be near the AFL team again.