Prediction Run to the finish line 2023

[fishardansin]

Upload it to google sheets, share it and then paste the share link in the forum. Then we’ll stick it

For those who don't know about Squiggle, where I am getting the data from, check them out:

Squiggle: AFL prediction & analysis

Squiggle is the home of computer-aided AFL footy tipping

squiggle.com.au

 

[fishardansin]

Ok google sheet updated again.

Should I delete Carlton from this?

 

[Merrett2Daniher]

Without getting too far ourselves, the next six games are going to make or break us for season 2023.
There is every chance we could loose all 6 which would send us well outside the 8 and end the finals run.
We could also win 5 or 6 of these, which would have us in the top 4.

What is a pass mark?

So much for an easy fixture!
Round 15 - Freemantle @ Optus
Round 16 - Port Adelaide @ MCG
Round 17 - Adelaide @ Marvel
Round 18 - Geelong @ GMHBA
Round 19 - Dogs @ Marvel
Round 20 - Sydney @ Marvel

We have a reasonable record in WA recently.
Getting both Adelaide teams away from home will bring them back a bit and give us more of a chance.
Geelong will be tough with players coming back, and them starting to play to there potential by the time we play them.
Both Sydney and the Dogs at Marvel will be challenging, however on our season form we should be in both games.


What does the team look like going into those round barring any injuries?
Parish, Shiel and Setterfield all would be fit to play during the next few weeks.

 

[IggypopsTshirt]

GWS and Norf in last 3 rounds are no certainty either. We’ll have done well if we win 5 more games for the season.

 

[theboxmike]

Does it go something like this?

0 = Sack Scott! (Kidding)
1 = Pack it in
2 = Trade Weids
3 = Acceptable
4 = Good
5 = Time to Buy Finals Tickets
6 = heck Carlton


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[bommer16]

I’m going with 3/3 as a WLWLWL.
But in saying that Essendon is playing on a more competitive level this year compared to previous seasons. Where I would say we would be lucky to win one we can win 50% minimum over next 6 weeks. Any more than 3 games won in this block and top 4 bound for sure. But in true Ess style we have won the unwinnables and lost the bankable games before. A lot depends on injury too. Im unsure of our win loss ratio after byes but combined with travel to Perth I’m a bit weary of Fremantle yet can upset Port here. I trust the group has a winning mentality and will give every game 110%.

 

[eth-dog]

Don't we have a thread for this already?

 

[Lore]

Don't we have a thread for this already?

We have a fixture thread and a run to finals thread, but idk which one this should be merged with

 

[raskolnikov]

Round 15 - Freemantle @ Optus L
Round 16 - Port Adelaide @ MCG W
Round 17 - Adelaide @ Marvel W
Round 18 - Geelong @ GMHBA L
Round 19 - Dogs @ Marvel L
Round 20 - Sydney @ Marvel W

 

[eth-dog]

We have a fixture thread and a run to finals thread, but idk which one this should be merged with

Run to finals.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

There aren't many easy games that you can pencil us in for aside from WCE and North in Rounds 21-22. The interstate games against Freo & GWS could go either way depending on how they show up. We should beat Adelaide at home although they play much better in Adelaide than they do on the road. Port are a hard task. We just don't match up against Geelong at all. We came close against Collingwood before but we're nowhere near as fit.

The two games that will tell us if our finals campaign is serious or not are vs. the Swans and vs. the Dogs at Marvel. Win both of those games and I'll believe.

 

[Ati Tude]

The way I look at it, we need to win 5 more games to make finals. The most likely 5 would be Eagles, Norf, Syd, GWS and Crows. We probably dont win all 5 of those but would like to think we can win 1 or possibly 2 of the other matches - Freeo, Cats, Dogs, Pies, Port.

The problem is we are probably only favourites for 1 of the next 5 (Crows) and the more likely wins follow that which would leave us no room for error if we can't beat 1 or 2 of Freeo, Cats, Dogs and Port.

At the end of the day, I am more interested in seeing improvement in style, consistency and game plan than sneaking into finals (for the usual blowout loss).

The Ridley concussion for an off the ball incident probably cost us the Port game which could be difference in making the finals or having a home final.

 

[DallasCrane316]

North have improved, however, if we can’t beat them (obviously player availability dependent) then finals aren’t for us this year.

Realistically, we should win against Eagles and North. I’m not talking % boosters. Just getting the 4 points.

So we need to win 3 of the remaining 8 to make it. 6 of which I think are 50/50 or there abouts.

• Freo our best shot at the win. But a difficult task. We should have our strongest team for the year for this game.
• Port at the MCG helps us. However, we’re travelling back from Perth and playing them with a 6 day break. They’re also coming back from the bye. I can’t see us winning that one but we have a shot at least.
• Adelaide at Marvel. They’re a different team outside of AO but I’d imagine Marvel would suit their style of footy. Genuine 50/50.
• Geelong at GMHBA. Very unlikely. Mentally, they have the edge on our players it seems. Just hoping for no injuries and not a massive amount of damage to our %.
• Doggies at Marvel. Their form is so inconsistent, hard to tell what team will show up. Another genuine 50/50.
• Swans at Marvel. They play the ground well, but they are out of form compared to last year. Think we should win.
• GWS at GS. Inconsistent form and it will largely depend on player availability. I would tip us.
• Pies at MCG. We match up well with them for some reason. But they always find a way against us. Think they’ll win.

Thinking positively, I’d tip us against Freo, Swans, GWS, North and Eagles.

With Port, Crows and Doggies as chances but I’d have no confidence going in.

Cats and Pies - would be classified as upsets if we got up.

Freo game will be critical is setting up the back end of the season for us.

 

[citizen-erased]

Next month is interesting
Tough fixtures, but not unwinnable

Freo aren't invincible, but are at home. We do get Parish back
Crows are an excellent team, but we have them away from AO, which has been an achillies heel
Port - best team in the comp, but also away from home...and we pushed them there until Ridley was KO'd.
Cats - not invincible, but GMHBA

2 wins would make a statement. 3+ and i reckon belief would be up.
lose them all and go 8-9 would be disappointing and i reckon costs us top 8

 

[ghostdog]

Parish, Shiel and Setterfield are no guarantee to just come straight back in. Maybe Shiel, but Parish and Setterfield have been gone for weeks and weeks. May need a game in the twos.

We could just as easily fall over in the next 6 weeks. We scraped home against North and Richmond and were only convincing against Carlton with about ten minutes to go. Most of our remaining opponents are better than these teams and, Melbourne aside who were without Max Gawn

11

Max Gawn

Age

33

Ht

209cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

6.7

4star

CL

2.8

4star

HO

35.3

5star

D

18.5

4star

K

11.5

4star

HB

7.0

4star

CL

3.5

4star

HO

29.2

5star

D

8.4

3star

K

3.6

2star

HB

4.8

4star

CL

1.0

3star

HO

15.6

5star

, we haven't proven anything.

Lid is on for me. Of course, if we handle Port, it may just be gone then.

 

[jdstorm]

Parish, Shiel and Setterfield are no guarantee to just come straight back in. Maybe Shiel, but Parish and Setterfield have been gone for weeks and weeks. May need a game in the twos.

We could just as easily fall over in the next 6 weeks. We scraped home against North and Richmond and were only convincing against Carlton with about ten minutes to go. Most of our remaining opponents are better than these teams and, Melbourne aside who were without Max Gawn, we haven't proven anything.

Lid is on for me. Of course, if we handle Port, it may just be gone then.

Sheil as the one that’s automatically back in lol

He might deserve to be in the 2s when the teams at full health

 

[justlookingaround]

David King on SEN yesterday said something like: "You look at the bombers list profile, and you don't like it... but they're managing to win"
Wtf does he mean by that? That we're young? Small midfield? Lack of key backs? So far so good I reckon.

 

[justlookingaround]

There'd certainly be pressure from higher ups to get Parish right back in the side while he's negotiating his contract.
Personally I've thought we've looked more desperate with guys like Hobbs, Durham, Snelling trying to cement their place in the side.
Either way - having that sort of selection pressure is a big part of what gets good teams to the next level.

 

[Lore]

David King on SEN yesterday said something like: "You look at the bombers list profile, and you don't like it... but they're managing to win"
Wtf does he mean by that? That we're young? Small midfield? Lack of key backs? So far so good I reckon.

Probably that he's never heard of most of our players who played on the weekend, such is the depth of his research (and our injury list).

 

[Lore]

Parish and Setterfield would have the same opportunity to come back in as Wright did, which is to say train well and slot back in. Not everyone comes back like Stringer and Walla who take 3 weeks to warm up.

 

[Ati Tude]

David King on SEN yesterday said something like: "You look at the bombers list profile, and you don't like it... but they're managing to win"
Wtf does he mean by that? That we're young? Small midfield? Lack of key backs? So far so good I reckon.

I bolded your problem. This is the guy that once showed some analysis that when top 8 sides play each other it averages out that they win half and lose half.

 

[JT_the_Man]

Ideally I’d like to come out of the next 6 3 & 3. If we go 5 & 1 or 6 & 0 I will have genuine belief that we can do serious damage in September.

 

[ant555]

David King on SEN yesterday said something like: "You look at the bombers list profile, and you don't like it... but they're managing to win"
Wtf does he mean by that? That we're young? Small midfield? Lack of key backs? So far so good I reckon.

All of the above I would say. Case of exceeding expectations.

 

[bommer16]

The groups dynamic has changed and is evident by our wins. Plus our performances against port and others. The potential is there and it might be baby steps but they are steps in the right direction. There is room for improvement as I’ve read in the threads but I’m starting to look forward to games now with a sense of real hope bc in all fairness I don’t know what their peak is this year - if there is one. That’s the exciting bit. All I know is that it’s great to see the positive outcome from real effort. Something has clicked. Agree it’s exceeded expectations.

 

[ghostdog]

Sheil as the one that’s automatically back in lol

He might deserve to be in the 2s when the teams at full health

You're kidding yourself. When the team's at full health Shiel's one of our best.

 

[jdstorm]

You're kidding yourself. When the team's at full health Shiel's one of our best.

the issue is less his quality and more that he’s 3rd or 4th in line among small midfielders. The competition for wing spots is heating up where at best he’s the No2 and he’s not a natural forward

right now he’s probably Wing 2 after Martin and in front of Durham, Heppell, Cox, Tsatas, Davey, Mass

So while he might be the 10th best player on the team his importance is lower then that