Prediction Run to the finish line 2023

[fishardansin]

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[Lore]

the issue is less his quality and more that he’s 3rd or 4th in line among small midfielders. The competition for wing spots is heating up where at best he’s the No2 and he’s not a natural forward

right now he’s probably Wing 2 after Martin and in front of Durham, Heppell, Cox, Tsatas, Davey, Mass

So while he might be the 10th best player on the team his importance is lower then that

When he wasn't injured he was attending 60-70% of CBAs most games. He usually rotates forward when he's not in the middle.

It's likely that when he's fit and the opposition is harder than it has been the last couple of weeks, Hobbs, Caldwell and Perkins will go forward more, Shiel, Parish and Merrett rotate between two spots in the midfield, and Setterfield and Stringer split the other spot.

 

[Merrett2Daniher]

Who makes way for Shiel, Parish, Setterfield?
Menzie, Weideman, Phillips, Snelling, Hind?
Would have said Hobbs & Heppel a few weeks back but both have been solid.

Does Kelly make it back? Or is he depth only. Same with Baldwin.
Will be interesting to see how quickly Tsatas get up and going in the 2nd's.

 

[cAsEy_18]

Who makes way for Shiel, Parish, Setterfield?
Menzie, Weideman, Phillips, Snelling, Hind?
Would have said Hobbs & Heppel a few weeks back but both have been solid.

Does Kelly make it back? Or is he depth only. Same with Baldwin.
Will be interesting to see how quickly Tsatas get up and going in the 2nd's.

Snelling I think is an obvious one due to the role he is currently playing in the side (High half forward, any of Parish, Shiel, Hobbs, Caldwell could go back to rotating between that role and onball).

Hind is the next obvious one, but no-one else of those guys can play back. I think Hind's role is reserved for Cox at some point.

So you're right, that's where it gets difficult. I'd be reluctant to get rid of either of Menzie or Guelfi, having 2 genuine small forwards, who can kick a goal and pressure is necessary. I'm not dropping either of them for potentially a 'bigger name' player.

Controversial opinion but if we were to become fully fit at some point (always unlikely) I think you might see Setterfield play a couple in the VFL.

 

[fairbump_playon]

Snelling I think is an obvious one due to the role he is currently playing in the side (High half forward, any of Parish, Shiel, Hobbs, Caldwell could go back to rotating between that role and onball).

Hind is the next obvious one, but no-one else of those guys can play back. I think Hind's role is reserved for Cox at some point.

So you're right, that's where it gets difficult. I'd be reluctant to get rid of either of Menzie or Guelfi, having 2 genuine small forwards, who can kick a goal and pressure is necessary. I'm not dropping either of them for potentially a 'bigger name' player.

Controversial opinion but if we were to become fully fit at some point (always unlikely) I think you might see Setterfield play a couple in the VFL.

Merrett to half back

 

[Runk]

Lock in 5 more wins for the entire season.

 

[Merrett2Daniher]

Snelling I think is an obvious one due to the role he is currently playing in the side (High half forward, any of Parish, Shiel, Hobbs, Caldwell could go back to rotating between that role and onball).

Hind is the next obvious one, but no-one else of those guys can play back. I think Hind's role is reserved for Cox at some point.

So you're right, that's where it gets difficult. I'd be reluctant to get rid of either of Menzie or Guelfi, having 2 genuine small forwards, who can kick a goal and pressure is necessary. I'm not dropping either of them for potentially a 'bigger name' player.

Controversial opinion but if we were to become fully fit at some point (always unlikely) I think you might see Setterfield play a couple in the VFL.

Does Kelly come in for Hind? Take some pressure off Pidge on being the lockdown on the most dangerous small and give him a bit more flexibility to attack?
I think if Draper was fit you could drop Phillips and play Weid as a pinch hitter whilst he. Weid gives a good making option around the ground.
Parish for Phillips if above is ok.
Shiel for Menzie.
Setterfield for Snelling

 

[Vass38]

Geelong are looking uncharacteristically wobbly and currently have a precarious grip on 9th position…But - Freo, Sydney and/or the Tigers could pass them this round with victories and the Cats could potentially slip down to as far as 12th this week!
They then have to play an in form Melbourne next week - could 2023 be the year the Cats miss the 8..??


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[cAsEy_18]

Geelong are looking uncharacteristically wobbly and currently have a precarious grip on 9th position…But - Freo, Sydney and/or the Tigers could pass them this round with victories and the Cats could potentially slip down to as far as 12th this week!
They then have to play an in form Melbourne next week - could 2023 be the year the Cats miss the 8..??


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Depends how results for the rest of the season go.

“Thanks Kingy from the war room”

 

[fairbump_playon]

Depends how results for the rest of the season go.

“Thanks Kingy from the war room”

Results for the rest of the year will be split 50/50

Even the draws

 

[cAsEy_18]

Results for the rest of the year will be split 50/50

Even the draws

"That just goes to show you how even the season is, doesn't it..."

 

[TheUnicorn]

Us/Them

Round 15 - Fremantle @ Optus 50/50
Round 16 - Port Adelaide @ MCG 30/70
Round 17 - Adelaide @ Marvel 60/40
Round 18 - Geelong @ GMHBA 50/50
Round 19 - Dogs @ Marvel 50/50
Round 20 - Sydney @ Marvel 60/40

 

[eth-dog]

Us/Them

Round 15 - Fremantle @ Optus 50/50
Round 16 - Port Adelaide @ MCG 30/70
Round 17 - Adelaide @ Marvel 60/40
Round 18 - Geelong @ GMHBA 50/50
Round 19 - Dogs @ Marvel 50/50
Round 20 - Sydney @ Marvel 60/40

That's optimistic. Freo and Geelong especially.

 

[TheUnicorn]

That's optimistic. Freo and Geelong especially.

how would u have it?

 

[eth-dog]

Round 15 - Fremantle @ Optus 40/60
Round 16 - Port Adelaide @ MCG 30/70
Round 17 - Adelaide @ Marvel 60/40
Round 18 - Geelong @ GMHBA 40/60
Round 19 - Dogs @ Marvel 50/50
Round 20 - Sydney @ Marvel 50/50

 

[jmoo wan]

Round 15 - Fremantle @ Optus 40/60
Round 16 - Port Adelaide @ MCG 30/70
Round 17 - Adelaide @ Marvel 60/40
Round 18 - Geelong @ GMHBA 40/60
Round 19 - Dogs @ Marvel 50/50
Round 20 - Sydney @ Marvel 50/50

That's pessimistic. Freo and Geelong especially.

 

[Bombers36]

I'd go;-

Round 15 - Fremantle @ Optus 45/55
Round 16 - Port Adelaide @ MCG 45/55
Round 17 - Adelaide @ Marvel 65/35
Round 18 - Geelong @ GMHBA 40/60
Round 19 - Dogs @ Marvel 50/50
Round 20 - Sydney @ Marvel 75/25

 

[cAsEy_18]

I'd go;-

Round 15 - Fremantle @ Optus 45/55
Round 16 - Port Adelaide @ MCG 45/55
Round 17 - Adelaide @ Marvel 65/35
Round 18 - Geelong @ GMHBA 40/60
Round 19 - Dogs @ Marvel 50/50
Round 20 - Sydney @ Marvel 75/25

That’s mistic.

 

[fishardansin]

Without getting too far ourselves, the next six games are going to make or break us for season 2023.
There is every chance we could loose all 6 which would send us well outside the 8 and end the finals run.
We could also win 5 or 6 of these, which would have us in the top 4.

What is a pass mark?

So much for an easy fixture!
Round 15 - Freemantle @ Optus
Round 16 - Port Adelaide @ MCG
Round 17 - Adelaide @ Marvel
Round 18 - Geelong @ GMHBA
Round 19 - Dogs @ Marvel
Round 20 - Sydney @ Marvel

We have a reasonable record in WA recently.
Getting both Adelaide teams away from home will bring them back a bit and give us more of a chance.
Geelong will be tough with players coming back, and them starting to play to there potential by the time we play them.
Both Sydney and the Dogs at Marvel will be challenging, however on our season form we should be in both games.


What does the team look like going into those round barring any injuries?
Parish, Shiel and Setterfield all would be fit to play during the next few weeks.

If we can't beat this Sydney team on our home deck, then I'm not interested if we make finals to be honest. It is the next 5 games that are going to say a lot. If we can win two of those and emerge with fewer injuries than we have now we're home and hosed. If we win one of them, then we're on track. If we lose all five, we're behind the 8-ball but not out of it. Though we'd clearly not be a threat.

Here is Essendon's difficulty chart:


Adelaide in Melbourne is a must-win game. Adelaide is very similar to us, now that we have Wright back to counterbalance Tex. A bit of a surprise packet, but it's been humming along for this long into the season so there is no reason to expect it doesn't continue. Will be a tough game, but we should be pencilling it in as the key game for us in that block. Their block of footy over the same period is different to ours with the up and down nature of difficulty. Geelong have a bit of trouble again, but if they get going then this game is probably the one that separates 8th and 9th (assuming we lose the other 4 games in those 5 games).

Here is Adelaide's difficulty chart:



Beating us is vital to them. If Geelong drop due to not having Danger for a month (and they looked terrible without him), then both teams should make the finals. It could also be the Redman cup!

Re the other four games:
I'd have given us no chance against Freo over there, but they're patchy. In fact, both teams are so any result is possible. Port is excellent and love Docklands. MCG is different, but they'll see this as finals prep. I give us just a slim chance. Geelong in their shithole will be very tough, but we might get lucky if they drop a few more and already look out of the finals race. No Dangerfield as well.

So that is a tough run of games, but each opponent is potentially vulnerable as well.

The best possible outcome for Essendon is:
1. (must do) beat Adelaide to keep us on track to making finals.
2. Also beating Freo and Geelong, which will almost certainly see both of them miss finals, and beating Adelaide to place above them which could likely win us a home final.
3. Winning the three games mentioned to show we can beat mid-table sides, but also looking good against Port that will give us something to work on/with in the easy block of games at the end to potentially build a game plan that doesn't only win an elimination final, but gives us a good chance to win a semi-final as well - (which leads to Redman and Parish signing deals that still leaves salary cap room to get McKay as FA- that allows Reid and Hayes to develop with less pressure - so we have a spine of Baldwin, Hayes, Reid, Bryan, Hunter and Voss as depth and winning VFL premierships - and ready to come in and take over in 2026)

 

[fishardansin]

Round 15 - Fremantle @ Optus 40/60
Round 16 - Port Adelaide @ MCG 30/70
Round 17 - Adelaide @ Marvel 60/40
Round 18 - Geelong @ GMHBA 40/60
Round 19 - Dogs @ Marvel 50/50
Round 20 - Sydney @ Marvel 50/50

Round 15 - Fremantle @ Optus 35/65
Round 16 - Port Adelaide @ MCG 30/70
Round 17 - Adelaide @ Marvel 65/35
Round 18 - Geelong @ GMHBA 40/60
Round 19 - Dogs @ Marvel 40/60
Round 20 - Sydney @ Marvel 70/30

 

[justlookingaround]

Freo looking pretty cooked early vs GWS. Hope they just eek out a win. I reckon we're 50/50.

I reckon we're a pretty good chance of beating Port at the G. They'll be coming off the bye and have been pretty shaky there in recent years. (thrashed by Pies and a narrow win over Richmond this year, lost all 3 of their games last year).
They perform much better at Marvel.

Crows I'm giving us 60/40 but I'm nervous about that one.

Geelong we will lose.

Doggies 40/60.

Swans I'm confident.

 

[ant555]

I could easily see this thread being the source of entertainment for opposition supporters.

 

[raskolnikov]

I actually fancy our chances against Port.

 

[Bombers36]

I feel like Geelong & Freo might be cooked - Freo are gettable over there next week we are getting them at a good time, the Demons should beat the Cats next week and end their 2023 finals hopes..
Adelaide, Richmond and GCoast (if they can win today) still very much in the finals hunt..
We are as good as locked in now


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[eth-dog]

I feel like Geelong & Freo might be cooked - Freo are gettable over there next week we are getting them at a good time, the Demons should beat the Cats next week and end their 2023 finals hopes..
Adelaide, Richmond and GCoast (if they can win today) still very much in the finals hunt..
We are as good as locked in now


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Need to win 5 of the 10 to make it. Nowhere near a lock.

 

[fishardansin]

I missed the Freo game. Absolute smashing is it terminal?

I could easily see this thread being the source of entertainment for opposition supporters.

They're welcome to!