Since '94, a side from outside the 8 has made the top 4 every year. Who

[Dan26]

Who's next?

Since the final 8 began in 1994, we have had a situation where EVERY season a side from outside the top 8 has made the top FOUR the next season. Fremantle continued the trend for the 12th consecutive year when they jumped from 10th to 3rd this season.

1994: Richmond (9th) finished 3rd in 1995

1995: Sydney (12th) finished 1st in 1996

1996: Adelaide (12th), St.Kilda (10th) and the Bulldogs (15th) finished 4th, 1st, and 3rd on the ladder respectively in 1997

1997: Melbourne (16th) finished 4th in 1998

1998: Brisbane (16th) finished 3rd in 1999

1999: Melbourne (14th) finished 3rd in 2000

2000: Port (14th) finished 3rd in 2001, Richmond (9th) finished 4th in 2001

2001: Collingwood (9th) finished 4th in 2002.

2002: Sydney (11th) finished 4th in 2003

2003: Geelong (12th) finished 4th in 2004, St.Kilda (11th) finished 3rd in 2004.

2004: Adelaide (12th) finished 1st in 2005

2005: Fremantle (10th) finished 3rd in 2006

2006?: "X" (9th to 16th) finished "1st-4th" in 2007?

That means one (or more) of these teams WILL make the top 4 next season, barring an unusual break in the trend:

Richmond
Geelong
Hawthorn
Port Adelaide
Brisbane
Kangaroos
Essendon
Carlton

Who will it be? The easy answer is to pick the teams that finished 9th and 10th, but if you look at history, 9th has only climbed into the top 4, three times, 10th has done it twice. 12th has done it four times and 16th has done it almost as many times as 9th! (twice.) So ladder position from the previous year is no real indicator.

For some reason, I'm gonna tip Port. Don't know why, just a feeling. I think the only teams I would definately rule out would be Carlton and Brisbane.

 

[magic19]

Looking at the bottom eight from this year, it doesn't look like any will make top 4.

If this trend continues, you would have to say Hawthorn.

 

[Macca19]

Hawthorn or Port

 

[danzan22]

2006: Fremantle (10th) in 2005 finished 3rd in 2006
quote] you forgot the bulldogs and collingwood

Edit: sorry, forgot that u only meant top 4

 

[ManWithNoName]

2006: Fremantle (10th) in 2005 finished 3rd in 2006
quote] you forgot the bulldogs and collingwood

They didn't make the top 4.

 

[Father Jack]

edit: beaten to the punch

 

[Smell The Glove]

For some reason, I'm gonna tip Port. Don't know why, just a feeling. I think the only teams I would definately rule out would be Carlton and Brisbane.

Only teams I would definitely rule out would be Essendon, Carlton and the Kangaroos.

 

[magic19]

Hawthorn or Port

Sounds about right... forgot PA

 

[Oh When the Saints]

Hawthorn. They will do what the Saints did from '03-2004.

If the Tigers have a fit Nathan Brown then they will move up the ladder, but I can't see them grabbing fourth.
Geelong are a chance as they have been there before.

Port are the darkhorse, especially with a fit Trederea.

 

[danzan22]

Only teams I would definitely rule out would be Essendon, Carlton and the Kangaroos.

going from the stats provided no one can be definately ruled out

 

[Father Jack]

Richmond. their six years are up.

 

[Upgrayedd]

Only teams I would definitely rule out would be Essendon, Carlton and the Kangaroos.

i would add brisbane to that list as well

 

[Dan26]

Only teams I would definitely rule out would be Essendon, Carlton and the Kangaroos.

Looking at some of the teams who jumped form nowhere (Melbourne from their spoon in 1997 to the top 4 being a stand out) it is hard to rule out anyone. Melbourne were worse in '97 than Essendn and Carlton were this year.

I would guess to rule out Brissy and Carlton but what do i know? I'm sure I, along with everyone ruled out Sydney in 1996 after they finished last, last, last and 12th in the previous 4 seasons! And look what happened. But I think Essendon and the 'Roos (and everyone else) are two teams who can do it if things go right for them. No one would have predicted the Bulldogs would have gone from 15th to 3rd in 1997 with the same list.

I'm not saying Essendon or the Kangaroos will, but it's not out of the question, as the last 12 years have shown.

 

[Oh When the Saints]

Carlton simply don't have the class, but will definitely move off the bottom.

I just can't see North doing it unless Hay comes good at full-back and they get a couple of gun mids ...

Essendon are a possibility if Fletcher, Hird and Lloyd play the full season.

Brisbane don't have the quality down back, but their midfielder with Lappin, Black, Power and Sherman will be strong.

 

[The Zebra]

Interesting.



Port look to have added some speed to their midfied, and if Treadrea came back and was in form they could rise up the ladder quickly. Cornes at CHb, Tredrea at CHF and the Burgoynes in the guts is a pretty good start.

The Cats could easily rise into the top 4. Plenty of improvement to come from their core group and if Ablett can replicate his late VFL form, and Hawkins provides any type of presence they will have enough scoring options. They are very even over the ground, but speed in midfield is still the biggest flaw. May see Gary jnr spending more time in their which would make a difference.

The Roos finished 5th in 2005 and then had a year this year where pretty much every player played well below previously displayed form. If they can pick up a CHF in the draft to even half cover the gaping hole at CHF then they ould be a chance as they are otherwise pretty even across the ground. A new reliance on young guys in the midfield may see an inconisistency that would see them get that high..

Can't see any of the other teams doing it.

 

[Ripper]

Port or Geelong. Hawks will probably finish 5-8.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

If that was to happen, it would almost have to be Geelong.
Port a somewhat lesser chance.

 

[Kenny_01]

I can seriously see Essendon and/or Hawthorn being a suprise packet, and Geelong is always a chance.

 

[Dan26]

If that was to happen, it would almost have to be Geelong.
Port a somewhat lesser chance.

Like I said earlier, I reckon that's the easy choice, just by looking at the previous year's ladder, but going by the past 12 years, the previous seasons performance has got nothing to do with it.

Take 1997. Melbourne finished last by 3 full games (4 wins 18 losses). Geelong finished 2nd and could have won the flag with a bit of luck.

Geelong finished 12th in 1998, the Demons finished 4th.

Afrter 1997 was over, who would you have had more optimism for in 1998? Geelong or Melbourne?

 

[The Zebra]

Like I said earlier, I reckon that's the easy choice, just by looking at the previous year's ladder, but going by the past 12 years, the previous seasons performance has got nothing to do with it.

I think there is some value in looking at a three year block.

Melb went 4th in 1998 to 14th in 1999 to 3rd in 2000
Brisbane went 8th in 1997 to 16th in 1998 to 3rd in 1999
Port 7th in 1999 to 14th in 2000 to 3rd in 2001.

Teams have aberration years.
It is worth looking at the year before their low finish to get a guide.

 

[Father Jack]

I think there is some value in looking at a three year block.

Melb went 4th in 1998 to 14th in 1999 to 3rd in 2000
Brisbane went 8th in 1997 to 16th in 1998 to 3rd in 1999
Port 7th in 1999 to 14th in 2000 to 3rd in 2001.

Teams have aberration years.
It is worth looking at the year before their low finish to get a guide.

that points to Geelong. Who are the obvious candidate really. A horror year, they are capable of much much more. they should've flogged the eventual premiers after all.

 

[Keys]

.

Teams have aberration years.
It is worth looking at the year before their low finish to get a guide.

Agreed, that's why I think Geelong are the most likely. Seriously under achieved this year and are capable of bouncing back.

Next question though, who from this year's top 4 drops out. They all have a solid case to argue they will be there next year. I have no clue.

 

[VanBerlo=God]

port or hawthorn for mine, most probably port they have the most to improve and have several players returning from injury

hawthorn are young and are looking to improve despite their crap period this year for about 14 or games in a row

 

[Hugshawks]

I'm going for Geelong. Think back to 04' and 05'.

Port and Hawks an outside chance.

 

[Mattlowry]

Interesting.



Port look to have added some speed to their midfied, and if Treadrea came back and was in form they could rise up the ladder quickly. Cornes at CHb, Tredrea at CHF and the Burgoynes in the guts is a pretty good start.

The Cats could easily rise into the top 4. Plenty of improvement to come from their core group and if Ablett can replicate his late VFL form, and Hawkins provides any type of presence they will have enough scoring options. They are very even over the ground, but speed in midfield is still the biggest flaw. May see Gary jnr spending more time in their which would make a difference.

The Roos finished 5th in 2005 and then had a year this year where pretty much every player played well below previously displayed form. If they can pick up a CHF in the draft to even half cover the gaping hole at CHF then they ould be a chance as they are otherwise pretty even across the ground. A new reliance on young guys in the midfield may see an inconisistency that would see them get that high..

Can't see any of the other teams doing it.

I find it funny how every supporter could potentially see there team get up but not anyone elses. I mean potentially i can see all teams (with the exception of Carlton) getting up to the top 4.

I mean if Essendon has Lloyd, Hird, Fletcher firing, McPhee back to form and the youngsters start to step up they could do it quite easily. Forward line of Johns, Lucas, Hird, Lovett, Lloyd, Monfries looks pretty damn good to me.

If alot of Hawthorns youngsters make the next step i can see them doing it too.

Brisbane were a force only a few years ago. They will have Brown playing more games (hopefully for there sake) and still have a great midfield. If Richmond can be consistent they can do it. Showed glimpses this year. Geelong were favourites for the flag early last year. Could be a chance.

I can see nearly every team potentially doing it, but i doubt it. There are some strong teams at the top. But history has shown us that it will happen. Could be any team. I think Roos, Blues wont be able to do it due to lack of class. I think Essendon's leaky defence will be there undoing but if there forward line fires like it is on paper could sneak up to 8th/9th. The other teams we will see tho.