Who's next?
Since the final 8 began in 1994, we have had a situation where EVERY season a side from outside the top 8 has made the top FOUR the next season. Fremantle continued the trend for the 12th consecutive year when they jumped from 10th to 3rd this season.
1994: Richmond (9th) finished 3rd in 1995
1995: Sydney (12th) finished 1st in 1996
1996: Adelaide (12th), St.Kilda (10th) and the Bulldogs (15th) finished 4th, 1st, and 3rd on the ladder respectively in 1997
1997: Melbourne (16th) finished 4th in 1998
1998: Brisbane (16th) finished 3rd in 1999
1999: Melbourne (14th) finished 3rd in 2000
2000: Port (14th) finished 3rd in 2001, Richmond (9th) finished 4th in 2001
2001: Collingwood (9th) finished 4th in 2002.
2002: Sydney (11th) finished 4th in 2003
2003: Geelong (12th) finished 4th in 2004, St.Kilda (11th) finished 3rd in 2004.
2004: Adelaide (12th) finished 1st in 2005
2005: Fremantle (10th) finished 3rd in 2006
2006?: "X" (9th to 16th) finished "1st-4th" in 2007?
That means one (or more) of these teams WILL make the top 4 next season, barring an unusual break in the trend:
Richmond
Geelong
Hawthorn
Port Adelaide
Brisbane
Kangaroos
Essendon
Carlton
Who will it be? The easy answer is to pick the teams that finished 9th and 10th, but if you look at history, 9th has only climbed into the top 4, three times, 10th has done it twice. 12th has done it four times and 16th has done it almost as many times as 9th! (twice.) So ladder position from the previous year is no real indicator.
For some reason, I'm gonna tip Port. Don't know why, just a feeling. I think the only teams I would definately rule out would be Carlton and Brisbane.
Since the final 8 began in 1994, we have had a situation where EVERY season a side from outside the top 8 has made the top FOUR the next season. Fremantle continued the trend for the 12th consecutive year when they jumped from 10th to 3rd this season.
1994: Richmond (9th) finished 3rd in 1995
1995: Sydney (12th) finished 1st in 1996
1996: Adelaide (12th), St.Kilda (10th) and the Bulldogs (15th) finished 4th, 1st, and 3rd on the ladder respectively in 1997
1997: Melbourne (16th) finished 4th in 1998
1998: Brisbane (16th) finished 3rd in 1999
1999: Melbourne (14th) finished 3rd in 2000
2000: Port (14th) finished 3rd in 2001, Richmond (9th) finished 4th in 2001
2001: Collingwood (9th) finished 4th in 2002.
2002: Sydney (11th) finished 4th in 2003
2003: Geelong (12th) finished 4th in 2004, St.Kilda (11th) finished 3rd in 2004.
2004: Adelaide (12th) finished 1st in 2005
2005: Fremantle (10th) finished 3rd in 2006
2006?: "X" (9th to 16th) finished "1st-4th" in 2007?
That means one (or more) of these teams WILL make the top 4 next season, barring an unusual break in the trend:
Richmond
Geelong
Hawthorn
Port Adelaide
Brisbane
Kangaroos
Essendon
Carlton
Who will it be? The easy answer is to pick the teams that finished 9th and 10th, but if you look at history, 9th has only climbed into the top 4, three times, 10th has done it twice. 12th has done it four times and 16th has done it almost as many times as 9th! (twice.) So ladder position from the previous year is no real indicator.
For some reason, I'm gonna tip Port. Don't know why, just a feeling. I think the only teams I would definately rule out would be Carlton and Brisbane.