Since '94, a side from outside the 8 has made the top 4 every year. Who

[Dan26]

Looking at the sticky thread at the top of the page regarding the ladder predictions I don't think too any people are taking heed of history.

Too many people just shuffle last years ladder around, and juggle everyone around a couple of spots.

The ladder will have huge changes. It always does.

 

[CoZi36]

Brisbane because we get Brown, Charman, Lappin, Hadley and many others back from injury.

 

[ShinSplints]

Port Adelaide, Hawthorn or Geelong are all capable.

IMO Look at its the HAWKS!!! Hawthorn's last matches of 2006 they started to show some great form.

Richmond and the others are no good simple as that. richmond are a terrible team beaten by 115 points aT THE START THE YEAR AND NEVER LOOKED IN IT'!

 

[Palmer Stoat]

Another vote for Geelong.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

Port Adelaide, Hawthorn or Geelong are all capable.

IMO Look at its the HAWKS!!! Hawthorn's last matches of 2006 they started to show some great form.

Richmond and the others are no good simple as that. richmond are a terrible team beaten by 115 points aT THE START THE YEAR AND NEVER LOOKED IN IT'!

Thanks for the compliment, but we beat the bottom 3 clubs and a disinterested Geelong in the last 4 weeks. One of those games was a borefest and in the other two, Essendon and Carlton almost pegged us back after we blew out to big leads by half-time.

Just seeing Hawthorn in the first week of the finals next season will do me. Top 4 is a pipedream for 2007, especially since we have no clear answer to full-back at this stage. More realistically, I expect Hawthorn to finish about 9 or 10th on the ladder.

 

[Grimreepah]

Some good stats on this thread. I might have to revise my ladder predictions.

The most likely would have to be Geelong. They already have the list and I think they should have finished top 4 this year. And they will probably do better out of the draft than any other club, with man mountain Tom Hawkins coming through the father/son. Exciting times for the Cats IMO.

 

[Grin]

Richmond and the others are no good simple as that. richmond are a terrible team beaten by 115 points aT THE START THE YEAR AND NEVER LOOKED IN IT'!

Try to get over Brown and Bowden for next year.

 

[Sir_Adrian84]

hawthorn or geelong, maybe richmond

 

[PJ Power]

Sydney and Adelaide look to be on shaky ground.

West Coast looks set and primed for at least another season.

Fremantle is a complete mystery.

I expect Sydney to be just as strong if not stronger in 2007. Everitt will be a major addition.
Adelaide will be top 8, but probably 4th-6th
Even with the Dockers' track record it is hard to see them missing the finals.

Collingwood would be the most vulnerable side from last year's top 8.

Geelong should be the automatic replacement.

Port will be much more competitive but to move into 9th-10th and miss out by a game or two.

 

[MarkT]

A lot of people seem to rate Geelong pretty highly. That had virtually their best side most weeks last year and couldn’t beat an egg. I can’t see much natural improvement in them. N. Ablett might be one improver but it’s a big might for 2007. If they had issues with the coach he’s still there. If they didn’t then they weren’t talented enough to do any good and they are no more talented this year. Their deficiencies up forward and with pace in the middle haven’t been solved. This squad looks to have peaked to me and the coach has to be a query.

I think Richmond might make the 8. I can’t see them being good enough to make the top 4 though. I can’t anyone outside the 8 from 2006 making the top 4. I can see Freo dropping away if they think they achieved last year. With the right mindset though they could be a threat. Saints could go either way. Depends how good the coach is and whether the players play for him or not. Sydney might have been up long enough and they are due some injuries at the wrong time. If Melbourne’s depth is tested, particularly down back, they could fall away badly.

Pies look very shaky to me. A lot depends on youngsters in T. Cloke and Rusling up forward and Thomas and Pendlebury in the ball. Relying on that many youngsters is fraught with danger. The ruck is still a worry. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Collingwood drop out with Buckley and Burns playing minor roles.

Adelaide are an interesting one. They will probably make the 8 but I think they might drop out of the top 4. A few players have another year on the clock and their rucks look vulnerable. They still have some queries up forward. They won’t present any surprises to anyone this year ether.

 

[DDC City West]

Definately Hawthorn, they will have a year like the Saints in 2004. The Hawks will be the best Vic team for the next 3 years. Whether they win a flag, I'm not sure.

 

[Belly]

A lot of people seem to rate Geelong pretty highly. That had virtually their best side most weeks last year and couldn’t beat an egg. I can’t see much natural improvement in them. N. Ablett might be one improver but it’s a big might for 2007. If they had issues with the coach he’s still there. If they didn’t then they weren’t talented enough to do any good and they are no more talented this year. Their deficiencies up forward and with pace in the middle haven’t been solved. This squad looks to have peaked to me and the coach has to be a query.

I think Richmond might make the 8. I can’t see them being good enough to make the top 4 though. I can’t anyone outside the 8 from 2006 making the top 4. I can see Freo dropping away if they think they achieved last year. With the right mindset though they could be a threat. Saints could go either way. Depends how good the coach is and whether the players play for him or not. Sydney might have been up long enough and they are due some injuries at the wrong time. If Melbourne’s depth is tested, particularly down back, they could fall away badly.

Pies look very shaky to me. A lot depends on youngsters in T. Cloke and Rusling up forward and Thomas and Pendlebury in the ball. Relying on that many youngsters is fraught with danger. The ruck is still a worry. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Collingwood drop out with Buckley and Burns playing minor roles.

Adelaide are an interesting one. They will probably make the 8 but I think they might drop out of the top 4. A few players have another year on the clock and their rucks look vulnerable. They still have some queries up forward. They won’t present any surprises to anyone this year ether.

There are other players with the potential to improve.

You missed a couple of obvious ones in Mackie and Stokes.

There are many players who should improve on 2006 form.

Also, in 2005, Geelong had the same team it has now, except with one of the worst runs with injury in the AFL, and managed to win 12 games.

We had virtually no injuries from round 11 onwards, and we won 7 and 1/2 out of 11 games, so with our full team in, we played some decent footy.

The only points you have made that are correct are in bold

 

[MarkT]

Mackie and Stokes – every club can say at least as many similar type players will/should/could improve. 12 wins is not big deal. So Geelong won a few games in 2006 when it didn’t matter any more. That’s actually a minus not a plus. I just think it’s been taken almost as a given that Geelong are a quality side that had an inexplicably bad year. I actually think they are an average side that played to its absolute limit and couldn’t get to a prelim. And now need re invention. Last season they backed improvement which didn’t come because they bought their own PR. My club did the same after losing a couple of GF’s.

 

[Minkus_Swan]

Who's next?

For some reason, I'm gonna tip Port. Don't know why, just a feeling. I think the only teams I would definately rule out would be Carlton and Brisbane.

Sorry Dan but since your last season's prediction (same theory) that the bummers would be that team to crack the top 4, I would now put my house on Port getting the spoon than making the top 8


For the record - Tiges for me.

 

[Kaitsey]

my guess would be geelong.

 

[pharro]

going from the stats provided no one can be definately ruled out

Agreed although I suspect a dramatic improvement from 14th, 15th or 16th usually follows priority picks so this year's underachievers have been stooged compared with previous years. A change in coaches would also make a big difference to a team's chances to turn things around.

 

[BedlamHawk]

I think Port is the most talented team outside the 8. If they can get Tredrea up and firing I think they have the potential to sneak into a top position. It is very hard to tip at this stage, but it looks to me like Geelong are on the slide and Hawthorn and Richmond overachieved a little bit and will probabaly hover around the same position (Richmond copped a couple of 100 point beltings and Hawthorn's wins were junk wins against bottom sides).

 

[Crow-mo]

the obvious choice is geelong.

sure a team usually bolts into the top 4, but it's not usually a total surprise. Often it's teams bouncing back from an unexpected decline. Geelong were half an ounce of luck away from the 2005 premiership - and they underachieved this year.

they could easily bounce back, as they should not have been so rubbish this season.

 

[Dan26]

A lot of people seem to be cutting Geelong a lot of slack for their poor 2006, and are expecting them to bounce back in 2007. Based on what? Do they have any real stars? More so than other teams?

Has anyone considered the possibility that they just aren't that good, and that is the reason they failed in 2006 and will probably fail again in 2007?

 

[Crow-mo]

A lot of people seem to be cutting Geelong a lot of slack for their poor 2006, and are expecting them to bounce back in 2007. Based on what? Do they have any real stars? More so than other teams?

Has anyone considered the possibility that they just aren't that good, and that is the reason they failed in 2006 and will probably fail again in 2007?

why have you discounted their 2005 season without basis or reason?

 

[Dan26]

why have you discounted their 2005 season without basis or reason?

I hardly thnik 12 wins 10 losses in 2005 is "great"

And besides, 2005 is now two years ago. One year is along time. Two years is an eternity.

The last two years Geelong have been "roughly" a 50-50 team. There seems to be some sort of urban myth that Geelong was a top-4 flag contender in 2005. They weren't. They were 12-10. And they followed that up with another "close to 50-50" season in 2006.

So, based on that, why do people think they will bounce back? They had their chance in '04. They've been middle of the road since then. I don't think they will make the finals. I think they (and everyone else) over-estimates their list.

I'm happy to be proven wrong. I like Geelong.

 

[Crow-mo]

I hardly thnik 12 wins 10 losses in 2005 is "great"

And besides, 2005 is now two years ago. One year is along time. Two years is an eternity.

except in the context of your original post.

The last two years Geelong have been "roughly" a 50-50 team. There seems to be some sort of urban myth that Geelong was a top-4 flag contender in 2005. They weren't. They were 12-10. And they followed that up with another "close to 50-50" season in 2006.

umm... you do watch footy, and not just the stats - right?

I'm pretty sure Geelong were within an inch of the prelim in 2005, and lost the 2004 prelim by just over a goal.

So, based on that, why do people think they will bounce back? They had their chance in '04. They've been middle of the road since then. I don't think they will make the finals. I think they (and everyone else) over-estimates their list.
I'm happy to be proven wrong. I like Geelong.

But they didn't have a chance in 2005? either you're very confused, or...

I'll give you a fact: they contended hard in 2004 & 2005; but somehow you now think they aren't good enough? there is a reason why most people think of them as an obvious candidate to bounce back next year. who knows if they will? but this twaddle about them not being good enough defies the fact they there were one of the flag favourites heading into 2006, and better minds than you and I don't know what went wrong.

 

[deano the hawka]

1994: Richmond (9th) finished 3rd in 1995

2000: Richmond (9th) finished 4th in 2001

LMAO....so it is true that Richmond always finish 9th

 

[CyberKev]

Looking at the sides outside the eight this season, its exceedingly difficult to see how this 12 year seqeunce will not be broken in 2007.

I would see Richmond & Port Adelaide as being the two best positioned sides to make the move up into the eight, but neither looks good enough to make the elite four.

Brisbane could threaten the eight, with a good injury run and Jono Brown fit and firing, but they have lost a bit in recent years (particularly down back) and still look more likely to go bottom four than top four.

Hawthorn could also threaten the top eight, but will be debuting a big number of players again in 2007 and still lack genuine depth. They did finish 2006 strongly, but question marks remain about the quality of opposition on offer.

I tend to agree with Mark T on Geelong. My biggest worry about them in recent years has concerned their lack of 'go-up' capacity and they won't rectify this weakness for 2007. The side lacks genuine class and has a real blue-collar look about it. Will struggle to make the finals in 2007.

That only leaves Essendon Carlton and the Kangaroos, all of whom will have their work cut out escaping the bottom four, let alone ascending to the top four.

A couple of sides will fall out of the eight and a couple will make it in, but I'd expect any movement into the four to come from a side like the Bulldogs.

 

[red+black]

I can't see how it could possibly be Essendon. Some have mentioned that teams can have one bad year (an aberration), but Essendon have been bad for 2 1/2 years. They won't turn that around in a single season and finish top 4.

If 14 games (at a minimum) are required to make the top 4, Essendon have only won 14 games of their last 50. At best, Essendon will be merely making up the numbers in 2007.

I'll tip Hawthorn and/or Port.