Preview Sydney vs Essendon, Friday 7.40pm AEST @ Marvel Stadium

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Luke Hodge was interesting on SEN today.

Points he made:

- Sydney’s season average for attack through the corridor is 58%. In the Pies game it was down to 29% …. even lower if you take out Q4. The Port and Dogs games showed a similar trend.

- We don’t have any real contested marking power. When forced to go long around the boundary, we usually turn it over.

- In Hodge’s view, our 3 tall forwards are just serviceable & we can’t win a flag if opponents are successful in shutting down the corridor (Warner, Heeney, Gulden). Forcing us to go wide and bomb long is the key to beating us.

Nothing we probably didn’t already know - but Hodge was pretty blunt about it.

Will be interesting to watch this week - as Essendon will clog the corridor & we need to find a way to counter it.
 
Dubai Quacker said:
Luke Hodge was interesting on SEN today.

Points he made:

- Sydney’s season average for attack through the corridor is 58%. In the Pies game it was down to 29% …. even lower if you take out Q4. The Port and Dogs games showed a similar trend.

- We don’t have any real contested marking power. When forced to go long around the boundary, we usually turn it over.

- In Hodge’s view, our 3 tall forwards are just serviceable & we can’t win a flag if opponents are successful in shutting down the corridor (Warner, Heeney, Gulden). Forcing us to go wide and bomb long is the key to beating us.

Nothing we probably didn’t already know - but Hodge was pretty blunt about it.

Will be interesting to watch this week - as Essendon will clog the corridor & we need to find a way to counter it.
Click to expand...
Sounds about right.
One good thing is that the Bombers are not as skilled, disciplined or fit as the others mentioned. If we can get a bit of run or cut through happening we should have them covered.
 
Dubai Quacker said:
Luke Hodge was interesting on SEN today.

Points he made:

- Sydney’s season average for attack through the corridor is 58%. In the Pies game it was down to 29% …. even lower if you take out Q4. The Port and Dogs games showed a similar trend.

- We don’t have any real contested marking power. When forced to go long around the boundary, we usually turn it over.

- In Hodge’s view, our 3 tall forwards are just serviceable & we can’t win a flag if opponents are successful in shutting down the corridor (Warner, Heeney, Gulden). Forcing us to go wide and bomb long is the key to beating us.

Nothing we probably didn’t already know - but Hodge was pretty blunt about it.

Will be interesting to watch this week - as Essendon will clog the corridor & we need to find a way to counter it.
Click to expand...
All fair and reasonable.

McLean has only taken 2 contested marks in the last 3 games. Previous 4 games to that he was averaging 3 a game.

McDonald averages 1 contested mark a game over the last 5 weeks.

Amartey has only taken 4 contested marks in the last 6 games.

Forwards need to lift to create the contest if they don’t take the mark.

Longmire noted our poor contested marking after Friday’s game. An area for improvement.
 
caesar88 said:
"Captain's log, stardate 160824. Our destination is a strange planet known as 'Marvel', with a peculiar roof above it that makes every game there look like it's being played at a vacant Bunnings Warehouse. What say you, Spock?"

View attachment 2074208

"I think you're right, Spock. Oh well, at least you left one of those clubs and are now playing for - Oh."

It is in this spirit that we venture to this planet to go where no team has ever gone before... To top spot on the ladder after being 13-1 but then being incredibly shit and then nearly blowing our near-four-game lead on the ladder and then playing our best footy for about 10 minutes and finally securing our top spot. This bloke has put less people through cardiac-related ordeals than the Sydney Swans:

View attachment 2074207

The Context

This is a must-win game for Essendon if they want to play finals. They'll likely finish the game inside the top eight but only by the skin of their teeth. It is a kiiiiinda-must-win game for us. Our top two spot is not locked in yet, so we need to win at least one more game still, but we're a better chance of beating Adelaide in the final round, as it will be at home for us and the Crows players will likely be already mentally planning what cocktails they are going to order at their swim-up bars in Bali during September.

We've had a funny season. Looked impenetrable for 14 weeks of the season, then rudderless for the next four, and then we looked like Essendon for two weeks, and then had a weird game against Collingwood that was, in all honesty, pretty shite, but was bookended by two 10-minute bursts at the start and end of the game where we resembled our best versions again and that was enough to get us the most unlikely of wins. So who are we? What are the Bloods of 2024? Does 'the Bloods' still exist?

Essendon have also had a funny season, but they always have a funny season. They are a funny club. No matter how much I might hate them, they simply must stay in the competition for the laughs. Between cost of living, climate change, the potential of World War III on the horizon, it's important that we try to keep morale high. So thank you, Essendon. Truly.

The Game

As much as they are fun to take the mickey out of, I actually quite like what Brad Scott has done with Essendon this year. The media will have you believe that they have at least 8 Scott Pendleburys and 5 Gary Ablett Jrs in their team, so they've massively underperformed not finishing top 2/4 this year. But when I look at their best team, they are about where they should be on the ladder. They've had some great wins and some terrible losses, but Scott's managed to at least give them a different sort of look as a team, if not necessarily different results just yet.

Sam Durham and Jye Caldwell have been handy additions, providing the Bombers with some much needed grunt in the midfield - the keg to their notoriously soft underbelly. Just on Caldwell, I once predicted that he would become the best player of the 2018 draft. Yes, the draft that included such esteemed names like Sam Walsh, Connor Rozee, Zak Butters and Izak Rankine. So that's the kind of foresight and wisdom you can expect from this caesar88 preview. To be fair, it's not my fault. I don't think anyone saw it coming that the best player from the 2018 draft would be Hayden McLean.

Essendon do have a bit of a scary forward line, because with the right supply, they have two spearheads that are very different in style and play, but also just very different from the standard forward spearheads that the back six in most teams prepare for. Kyle Langford (39 goals) is a 192cm guy who, in theory, should be little more than a quality second or third tall, yet he's kicked multiple goals in 14 of his 20 games this year, and 3+ on seven occasions. He's nifty and athletic for his size, and can be quite classy at times. And Jake Stringer (38 goals) is almost like a midfielder/forward hybrid in the I. Heeney mould, and while he may look like he's smuggling yoga mats around his body under his guernsey, he can rip a game apart. I mean, so can James Rose, but it's still worth mentioning, I guess.

It will be a tough challenge for our back-line, which looked in all sorts at times throughout the Collingwood game. I can forgive our defenders for letting the renowned goalkicker Isaac Quaynor score a goal against them, but Mason Cox?? Really??

Hopefully another game back for Sir Dane, plus the return of Melican will alleviate some of these concerns.

For us, it will really be as simple as the midfield being competitive. There is so much talent in there that all they have to do is simply not roll over and die as they did in previous weeks. Give us enough supply, enough possession and chance to move the ball and get repeat entries into the forward line, and we will give ourselves enough looks.

The Changes

If I'm not mistaken, I think this may be the week we get Lewis Melican back. He probably comes in for one of Cleary (who was the starting sub) or Fox (who was subbed off.) There were a number of guys out there against Collingwood who I had simply no idea what the point of them was, except to annoy me - headlined by Mills, but also including Florent, Campbell, Adams. However I think Cleary or Fox are more likely omissions for Melican in Horse's eyes.

The VFL team had a good win, but Horse's "one of the best wins" rhetoric after the Pies match makes me think we won't go with any unforced changes to that team.

Could someone be rested? I identified five key players who I thought would most need a "rest" on the run home - Grundy, Blakey, Heeney, Rowbottom & Melican. The latter three have all had their turns due to injuries & suspension, but whether we dare manage Grundy or Blakey when top two isn't secured is another matter. Methinks if we get the win here, we might see a management in the final round of the season.

The Verdict

Swans by 416 points.
Click to expand...
I thought Fox was shite. He allowed 4 goals to his opponents. That is shite. He was wrong side leaving the goal side open on a lot of occasions. It was a wonder there were not more kicked on him. He had a shocker.

You are right about Adams. Sheldrick had a 33 game in the Twos. Time for Gale-force Gus to come in. Adams fumbled his way through the whole match. He wasn't alone. Up until the last quarter Chad was fumbly as well. So were Mills, Gulden & Jordan. Gulden did not pay any respect to The Bottom person & paid for that.

The back six were all over the place. I think that was because we were playing far too many through there & McDonald did not belong down there. A new guy, who doesn't even train with the backs, will kill the rhythm immediately. You have a cohesion happening. They had no idea what he was going to do. I doubt he did either. He was out of his depth. Needs to go back forward & thank the Footy Universe that he doesn't have to go back there again as his saviour Melly comes back.

If Melly does not come back I think Arnold deserves a go. Played very well last week. Hard as a Blacksmith's Hammer.

Out: Fox & Adams
In: Sheldrick & Melly (if not Melly then Arnold)



On CPH2471 using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Dubai Quacker said:
Great preview caesar88

I particularly appreciated your ability to get a James Rose reference in there.

Perhaps the lack of Harry Marsh precludes full marks - but nonetheless a podium worthy preview.

As for this game:

- it’s Essendon, so we’ll win

- it’s Marvel, so we’ll lose
Click to expand...
We play well at Marvel

On CPH2471 using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Dubai Quacker said:
At this juncture, surely 2 considerations come into the selection committee’s mind:

1. Do any players need a break?

2. Is there anyone we need to get a game into, in case they’re needed come finals?

I have no idea what the answer to 1. is.

But in regards 2., I think Cleary, Sheldrick or Mitchell could be needed if we suffer an injury.

Getting a senior game into at least one of them seems to make sense.
Click to expand...
I like Arnold too.

On CPH2471 using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

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wills2g said:
Adams wont be dropped

Horse values experience and age

Id rather figure out a way for Adams to find form. He was very good at HF for collingwood last year

Dont think we will win the flag with gus at HF

So play the potentially flag winning side
Click to expand...
Gus won't play HF. The last time he played any time in the seniors he played in the mids

On CPH2471 using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Dubai Quacker said:
Between 2015 & 2021, Adams was a gun.

He typically averaged 27 disposals per game over that period.

In 2022, that dropped to 22.
In 2023 it dropped to 18.
In 2024 it has dropped to 17*.

The question: is he a player past his prime & on the slide?

If the answer is yes - should he really be keeping Gus and Cleary out of the side?

* this number would be a bit higher if he wasn’t the sub in one game.
Click to expand...
I think he needs to be dropped. I thought so last week & still think so. Nothing he has done has changed my mind. He is averaging 10's

On CPH2471 using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Dubai Quacker said:
Luke Hodge was interesting on SEN today.

Points he made:

- Sydney’s season average for attack through the corridor is 58%. In the Pies game it was down to 29% …. even lower if you take out Q4. The Port and Dogs games showed a similar trend.

- We don’t have any real contested marking power. When forced to go long around the boundary, we usually turn it over.

- In Hodge’s view, our 3 tall forwards are just serviceable & we can’t win a flag if opponents are successful in shutting down the corridor (Warner, Heeney, Gulden). Forcing us to go wide and bomb long is the key to beating us.

Nothing we probably didn’t already know - but Hodge was pretty blunt about it.

Will be interesting to watch this week - as Essendon will clog the corridor & we need to find a way to counter it.
Click to expand...


So Hodge thinks if Sydney's best players are shut down they wont win.

Cool beans Hodge.


Apparently if you shut down Neale, Dunkley, Ashcroft and co the Lions play better.
 
LukeParkerno1 said:
What’s the point? Melican back anyway Logan will be back to the forward line. The same Hamling who has played a grand total of ZERO AFL games in the forwardline
Click to expand...
Regardless of the win on the weekend, it still doesn't fix our issues going forward. Give me forward 50 marks any day. Marks in general, overhead we are deplorable all over the ground, maybe bar the backline.

Good clubs right now are marking the ball (contested) through the middle and up forward. Amartey should, but doesn't, really pose a threat. We tried Ladhams and that was a disaster.

Logan is trying but is moved back at the moment to support Tom and Hayden our real target for a contested mark from our big fellas.

We don't really bat deep in that department, thanks to our midfielders/medium to smalls we've been competitive this year.

Let's see what this week (and finals) bring regarding marks i50 and through the contest.
 
Can someone explain why the hell Longmire won't play Hamling? Experienced player, can play forward and back and has put together a really solid VFL season.
 
kneecapper said:
Can someone explain why the hell Longmire won't play Hamling? Experienced player, can play forward and back and has put together a really solid VFL season.
Click to expand...


Maybe at training he gets his arse kicked
 
Dubai Quacker said:
Luke Hodge was interesting on SEN today.

Points he made:

- Sydney’s season average for attack through the corridor is 58%. In the Pies game it was down to 29% …. even lower if you take out Q4. The Port and Dogs games showed a similar trend.

- We don’t have any real contested marking power. When forced to go long around the boundary, we usually turn it over.

- In Hodge’s view, our 3 tall forwards are just serviceable & we can’t win a flag if opponents are successful in shutting down the corridor (Warner, Heeney, Gulden). Forcing us to go wide and bomb long is the key to beating us.

Nothing we probably didn’t already know - but Hodge was pretty blunt about it.

Will be interesting to watch this week - as Essendon will clog the corridor & we need to find a way to counter it.
Click to expand...
He's completely right. If we can't find another way to play through the corridor then we're stuffed.

We need to start switching the ball more often and with more urgency. Kicking long down the line to a congested area should be the absolute last resort.
 
kneecapper said:
Can someone explain why the hell Longmire won't play Hamling? Experienced player, can play forward and back and has put together a really solid VFL season.
Click to expand...

Was awful in defence pre season, Francis was the better performing defender. Hes had some good games forward but we were 13-3 and functioning well. He hasn’t ever played an AFL game up forward
 
LukeParkerno1 said:
Was awful in defence pre season, Francis was the better performing defender. Hes had some good games forward but we were 13-3 and functioning well. He hasn’t ever played an AFL game up forward
Click to expand...

You keep saying 13-3, which is true I guess, but we were also 13-1 two weeks before that. Isn’t that the better reference point when talking about our dominance earlier in the season?
 
LukeParkerno1 said:
Was awful in defence pre season, Francis was the better performing defender. Hes had some good games forward but we were 13-3 and functioning well. He hasn’t ever played an AFL game up forward
Click to expand...
Kicked 3 on the weekend. Given Amartey and Logan aren't offering much up forward I don't see the harm in giving him a shot.
 
kneecapper said:
Kicked 3 on the weekend. Given Amartey and Logan aren't offering much up forward I don't see the harm in giving him a shot.
Click to expand...

I do. He’s not a real forward and looks mediocre in that position even in VFL. It’s ridiculous to expect him to come in and make a difference. Maybe if everyone gets injured, otherwise just no.
 
kneecapper said:
Kicked 3 on the weekend. Given Amartey and Logan aren't offering much up forward I don't see the harm in giving him a shot.
Click to expand...

I do it’s 2 weeks before finals and the forwardline has got us to 4 points ahead plus 15% percentage. We aren’t changing our forwardline now.
 
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