Analysis Sydney's 2024 dominance is underrated

[Lsta062]

We all understand how Richmond is the only team to beat Sydney in 14 matches. That's fairly obvious. But what some people may not realise is that Richmond is also the only team to lead against Sydney at 3-quarter-time this year. Every team that lost to them was already trailing by 3-quarter time.

I just checked data from the last 20 years regarding this, and the only teams that match (or better) 2024 Sydney's W/L and 3QT record after 14 matches are 2009 St Kilda (14-0 W/L, 13/14 leading at 3QT) and 2011 Collingwood (13-1 W/L, 13/14 leading at 3QT). Even the West Coast of 2005 (13-1 W/L) and the Geelong of 2008 (13-1 W/L) trailed in at least 2 games.

Given that no team led at 3QT for all of their first 14 matches in the last 20 years, Sydney is currently matching it with the best.

What makes Sydney's current season stand out from the others is that they also have no one close to them. Both 2009 St Kilda and 2010 Collingwood had a 13-1 Geelong for company. Meanwhile, the closest team to Sydney right now is Carlton with a 10-4 W/L record. Even then, Carlton has led at 3QT 9/14 times this year.

Not saying that Sydney will end up winning the Premiership, but I feel like people are underappreciating just how dominant Longmire's current side is. The stats (e.g., percentage gap, the W/L record, the 3QT stat etc.) after 14 matches don't align like this very often. It'd be interesting to see how it all goes for the rest of the year.

 

[BloodySwan]

I just checked data from the last 20 years regarding this, and the only teams that match (or better) 2024 Sydney's W/L and 3QT record after 14 matches are 2009 St Kilda (14-0 W/L, 13/14 leading at 3QT) and 2011 Collingwood (13-1 W/L, 13/14 leading at 3QT). Even the West Coast of 2005 (13-1 W/L) and the Geelong of 2008 (13-1 W/L) trailed in at least 2 games.

It concerns me that all those teams lost the grand final. I don't think I can handle another grand final loss

 

[Lsta062]

Trigger warning: This thread contains some elements of positivity towards Richmond. Mainboard discretion is advised.

Now that this warning is out of the way, we can hopefully focus on Sydney's dominance rather than a Richmond poster highlighting one of the only positive things to happen to Richmond this season.

 

[The 747]

Well they are acknowledged by everyone as the best side year to date and they are three games clear on top.

 

[Lsta062]

It concerns me that all those teams lost the grand final. I don't think I can handle another grand final loss

Yeah, that is true, but that is why I highlighted how those sides had someone close to them. Sydney though doesn't have anyone close to them right now. That's what makes this stand out IMO

 

[What is a cakewalk]

They're suffering a bit from being so obviously the best. Footy media revolves around difference of opinion. Sydney are pretty much just blowing every team away every week.

Their only loss has been the standard mulligan. No one else has really looked close to beating them, so you can't really analyse how they might get beaten. Not even a Kane corner type is willing to grab some easy click bait by suggesting they aren't the best team.

Only question to answer is can they sustain it through the season? You can't even talk about that because only time can tell.

 

[Lsta062]

Well they are acknowledged by everyone as the best side year to date and they are three games clear on top.

But did we think that their season up to 14 matches is more dominant than, say, 2008 Geelong or any of Hawthorn's 2013-2015 seasons? Maybe you did, but I'll be honest and say that it really crept up on me. I personally wasn't aware that Sydney are currently tracking to be the most dominant team in close to 15 years until I started looking.

That's why I think their current dominance is underrated. If we're not talking about them being statistically up there (or even better than) Hawthorn and Geelong in their dominant eras, then we're not appreciating them enough IMO.

They're amazing to watch right now.

 

[Sqotty from office works]

Opposition will play a gorilla against Grundy in finals and he will disappear.
Brizzy and Collingwood still better than them

 

[The 747]

But did we think that their season up to 14 matches is more dominant than, say, 2008 Geelong or any of Hawthorn's 2013-2015 seasons? Maybe you did, but I'll be honest and say that it really crept up on me. I personally wasn't aware that Sydney are currently tracking to be the most dominant team in close to 15 years until I started looking.

That's why I think their current dominance is underrated. If we're not talking about them being statistically up there (or even better than) Hawthorn and Geelong in their dominant eras, then we're not appreciating them enough IMO.

They're amazing to watch right now.

Yes perhaps, but I guess more attention is on the other clubs that keep stumbling rather than the club that doesn't.

 

[BloodySwan]

Yeah, that is true, but that is why I highlighted how those sides had someone close to them. Sydney though doesn't have anyone close to them right now. That's what makes this stand out IMO

But out of the 3 teams you highlighted two of them didn't even lose to the second best team

 

[CarterS]

First half vs Adelaide they struggled with the pressure. In the second half they were dominant, but what if Adelaide could have maintained that heat for the whole game? In finals you will get teams who can maintain elite pressure the whole game and that's where I hold out some hope that Sydney are beatable in big finals.

But for now yeah they are very clearly the best in the league.

 

[Lsta062]

But out of the 3 teams you highlighted two of them didn't even lose to the second best team

Yeah that's true.

The other problem that Sydney have to face is an MCG Grand Final. Sydney don't have a particularly good MCG record. If Carlton or Collingwood rock up to the Grand Final, then they might lose. We can't tell for sure this far out, but it is a possibility.

It'd be nice to see Sydney continue their dominance and win it though. The most dominant team won in the last three seasons, so we could have Sydney follow suit.

 

[Osho]

So, the Cats have this year's flag, in the bag!

But seriously, peaking early might be problem. My wife is sure this phenom is real.

But more seriously, there is a team that is primed to exploit a late season hiccup by the pace setters, and that team is collingwood, and they are just getting their things together.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Just giss the cup already.

 

[The 747]

Just giss the cup already.

Nah

 

[Lsta062]

First half vs Adelaide they struggled with the pressure. In the second half they were dominant, but what if Adelaide could have maintained that heat for the whole game? In finals you will get teams who can maintain elite pressure the whole game and that's where I hold out some hope that Sydney are beatable in big finals.

But for now yeah they are very clearly the best in the league.

Yeah, that's true. But to do that, teams would probably have to beat them at the SCG, and that's where my concern lies.

From the remaining teams in Sydney's H&A season, I think Brisbane at the Gabba and Port Adelaide at AO could end up as losses. I know Port Adelaide isn't doing very well right now, but I have to consider their 7-game winning streak over Sydney as something. They might drop a game against one of Fremantle or Bulldogs too at the SCG, but that'll still leave them with a record of 19-4. That'd be enough for the top spot.

I don't know, but this has made the season a lot more interesting. It'll all be about who can catch Sydney off guard at this point IMO.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

In finals you will get teams who can maintain elite pressure the whole game and that's where I hold out some hope that Sydney are beatable in big finals.

But for now yeah they are very clearly the best in the league.

The wheel could fall off next week, so I don’t intend this to sound arrogant, but where are those teams going to appear from?

 

[Defabs]

We all understand how Richmond is the only team to beat Sydney in 14 matches. That's fairly obvious. But what some people may not realise is that Richmond is also the only team to lead against Sydney at 3-quarter-time this year. Every team that lost to them was already trailing by 3-quarter time.

I just checked data from the last 20 years regarding this, and the only teams that match (or better) 2024 Sydney's W/L and 3QT record after 14 matches are 2009 St Kilda (14-0 W/L, 13/14 leading at 3QT) and 2011 Collingwood (13-1 W/L, 13/14 leading at 3QT). Even the West Coast of 2005 (13-1 W/L) and the Geelong of 2008 (13-1 W/L) trailed in at least 2 games.

Given that no team led at 3QT for all of their first 14 matches in the last 20 years, Sydney is currently matching it with the best.

What makes Sydney's current season stand out from the others is that they also have no one close to them. Both 2009 St Kilda and 2010 Collingwood had a 13-1 Geelong for company. Meanwhile, the closest team to Sydney right now is Carlton with a 10-4 W/L record. Even then, Carlton has led at 3QT 9/14 times this year.

Not saying that Sydney will end up winning the Premiership, but I feel like people are underappreciating just how dominant Longmire's current side is. The stats (e.g., percentage gap, the W/L record, the 3QT stat etc.) after 14 matches don't align like this very often. It'd be interesting to see how it all goes for the rest of the year.

Collingwood hasd a % of 180 in 2011 when they had a 13 and 1 record.

Lot of things can go wrong towards the end of season. Collingwood 2011, St K 2009 and Geelong 2008 are good examples of this and this is not just in relation to losing the GF; this applies to form tapering off at the end of season, injuries and suspensions.

Collingwood defied the odds with their poor final month going into the finals but more often than not, if your form tapers off going into the finals, it’s unlikely you’ll win the flag no matter how far ahead you are on top of the ladder

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Trigger warning: This thread contains some elements of positivity towards Richmond. Mainboard discretion is advised.

Now that this warning is out of the way, we can hopefully focus on Sydney's dominance rather than a Richmond poster highlighting one of the only positive things to happen to Richmond this season.

Off-topic, but how sad that you even need to post this disclaimer. Good ol’ internet eh?

 

[Bollox]

BUT....what if every other club is just truly shithouse this year, and Sydney is only a half decent team.

 

[Lsta062]

Off-topic, but how sad that you even need to post this disclaimer. Good ol’ internet eh?

Yes lol, very sad. But, I felt it was necessary because I know that there is a chance this thread will derail if this point isn't acknowledged. Good ol' internet indeed

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Yes lol, very sad. But, I felt it was necessary because I know that there is a chance this thread will derail if this point isn't acknowledged. Good ol' internet indeed

The Internet. Bringing Out People’s Worst Instincts Since October 1969.

 

[Lsta062]

Collingwood hasd a % of 180 in 2011 when they had a 13 and 1 record.

Lot of things can go wrong towards the end of season. Collingwood 2011, St K 2009 and Geelong 2008 are good examples of this and this is not just in relation to losing the GF; this applies to form tapering off at the end of season, injuries and suspensions.

Collingwood defied the odds with their poor final month going into the finals but more often than not, if your form tapers off going into the finals, it’s unlikely you’ll win the flag no matter how far ahead you are on top of the ladder

Yes, I agree with the premise of your post. Although, I think those Geelong teams were comparable to the Collingwood and St Kilda teams they beat in the GF. They were almost just as dominant IMO.

But, the Geelong of 2008 is a very good example. They were. slightly off, and Hawthon took full advantage of that.

A lot has to go right to win the Premiership, and Sydney will face the same tests this year as the dominant teams before them.

 

[Ed_Gein]

It was annoying losing to Richmond at the time, but it's annoying me even more the longer the season has gone on since it's our only loss in 14 games.

Excited about our prospects, but would be pretty deflating to lose another GF. Only two teams that worry me are Brisbane and Bulldogs. Other than that, I'd be confident in beating anyone else.

Brodie Grundy

4

Brodie Grundy

Age

30

Ht

202cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.5

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

9.6

5star

CL

4.1

5star

HO

32.0

5star

D

16.4

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

9.6

5star

CL

4.0

5star

HO

34.6

5star

D

13.8

4star

K

5.2

2star

HB

8.6

5star

CL

2.6

5star

HO

20.6

5star

has had such a great impact overall and probably one of the biggest reasons behind our fortunes so far, but still a bit of water to pass under the bridge yet.

 

[Lsta062]

It was annoying losing to Richmond at the time, but it's annoying me even more the longer the season has gone on since it's our only loss in 14 games.

Excited about our prospects, but would be pretty deflating to lose another GF. Only two teams that worry me are Brisbane and Bulldogs. Other than that, I'd be confident in beating anyone else.

Brodie Grundy has had such a great impact overall and probably one of the biggest reasons behind our fortunes so far, but still a bit of water to pass under the bridge yet.

See, I feel the opposite way lol. The longer the season goes, the more I savour that win

But yes, I agree that Brisbane and Bulldogs are the main concerns. They have a strong offence that can pack on a big score on their day.

On Grundy, the thing with him is that he's basically another ball-winning midfielder. So good at ground level for a ruck. His last two weeks were just crazy.