Preview Tempest's mid season outlook

[Temploar]

I used to say that i didn't hate the man that is Nathan Buckley and i still don't hate him personally apart from some questionable decisions at the selection table (dropping Didak, persisting with Sinclair & Clarke, not playing Paine, playing Witts when he wasn't up to it etc) and some questionable gameplan issues like the 'kick to Cloke' mentality. BUT i really think that if we get everything right after the bye and get our senior players back into the squad (Beams, Young, Russell, Goldsack & Thomas) then we are a 1 in 5 chance to win the premiership this year and i say 1 in 5 because i think there are a lot of teams that can win it this year and i'll go over them later in this thread.

First let's talk about our current injury list and the players who are likely to come back and make an impact later this season.

Beams: Our biggest loss due to injury all year and the 2012 B&F winner. Will make a HUGE impact when and if he gets his Quad right and will be the catalyst for any premiership assault this year. We can't overestimate him though and he is only one man, not the solution to all our woes.

Young: People say that he will be the new whipping boy but i think all them people are WRONG. Young played very well in the NAB Cup this year and if he can get back to that form we can run Harry O on one wing and Young on the other, a combination that i think will suit us well. They both have decent ground level defensive abilities and a pair of legs on them. Our THIRD biggest loss to injury this year (besides Beams & Toovey)

Goldsack: First in line to come back into the defence (In front of Russell and Keeffe). He looks more at home in defence and is a natural defender, his height and versatility will help us so much and he can swing forward as well. Also him playing down in defence will free up Reid to play off CHB.

Russell: I know a lot of people that hated him earlier in the year but i think his last two games before injury were superb. We need a bit of height down back and if he can regain his form from the last games then he will be a handy inclusion. Comes in for Sinclair if Keeffe & Goldsack don't exactly come back firing.

Keeffe: A taller alternative to Russell, everyone i know rates him and i do too. If he can get into his pre-ACL form then he will be a handy inclusion allowing Reid to move up the ground more which will be handy as he can play as our link man down back.

Thomas: I personally don't think he could come back 100% but if he makes it then even at 80% come finals then he will be a handy sub for us. Provides a lot of spark and can now play as a versatile half forward flanker, midfielder or link man in defence.

The other injured players who aren't out for the season include Johnson, Hartley, Ramsay and Frost.
I don't think any of them will make a sizeable impact to our premiership assault this year.

Providing that we get our team fit and firing come September then this is how i think we should line up.

B: Maxwell - Brown - Williams
HB: Shaw - Reid - Goldsack
C: O'Brien - Pendlebury - Young
HF: Sidebottom - Cloke - Beams
F: Blair - Lynch - Elliott
Foll: Jolly - Ball - Swan

Int: Macaffer, Kennedy, Dwyer, (D.Thomas)

Emergencies: (In no specific order)
Hudson
Seedsman
Martin
Didak
Johnson
Keeffe
Russell
Broomhead
Oxley
Krakouer
Mooney
Paine
J.Thomas
Sinclair (ewww)

Backs: For the back pockets it's either Maxwell or Russell down there, based on who the club likes most then it's obviously going to be Maxwell even though i personally like Russell better. Maxwell won't be played as a traditional back pocket though due to his lack of actual man-on-man defensive ability. Expect to see him push up and run in as the second or third man at a contest. Williams covers the other back pocket pretty well and has not missed a beat since coming in. Our direct replacement for Toovey - he has some speed and it looks like his kicking ability has improved. Nathan Brown is rock solid for our key backman and not much needs to be said about him.

Half Backs: Shaw, Reid and Goldsack. A perfect mixture of defensive ability and run & carry.
I'd like to see Shaw alternating with Harry O by using Harry in defence during points in the match and moving Shaw to a HFF. Other than that Shaw does a pretty solid job as a running HBF. Reid will be a pure CHB for opponents with two genuine Tall forwards however if we're up against someone like the cats who really only have Hawkins who dominates games then i'd like to see Goldsack being played as the last man in defence as i think his defensive abilities are very good, this will allow Brown to play on that big key forward and Reid to roam the HBF becoming our link man and setting up plays with his athletic & kicking skills. For example if we are playing the Cats then i think Goldy would be a perfect match up for the J-Pod as they are both the same size. This tactic won't work on a team like the Hawks or the Swans though so that means Goldy would be our HBF then which wouldn't be too bad as he is pretty athletic.

(Positions in brackets mean the positions they are playing against)
(Free means that they will play up the ground more or stay back in defence helping out as a 3rd man in contests)
Teams with one genuine forward:
-Williams(SF)---Goldsack-(FF)---
--------Brown(CHF)--Maxwell--(SF)
-Shaw(SF)----Reid(Free)-------Harry O(SF/Wing)
Teams with two genuine forwards:
-Williams(SF)---Brown(FF)---
--Shaw(SF)----Reid(CHF)----Goldsack(SF)
--------Maxwell(Free)------
---Harry O (Wing)-------Young(Wing)--
Teams with two genuine forwards and a resting ruckman:
-Maxwell(RestingRuck)---Brown(FF)---Williams(SF)
--Goldsack(SF/Free)---Reid(CHF)----
-Shaw(SF)---------Harry O(SF/Wing)----

Midfielders: In my opinion we have the best midfield in the comp when fit, Swan, Ball, Pendles & Beams the permanent mids while Caff the tagger and Sidebottom, Young, Kennedy, Shaw, O'Brien, D.Thomas & Blair chipping in.

-----Young---------
-----Swan----Ball---Pendles----
----Caff---------Beams---------

Caff, Swan, Ball, Pendles & Beams need to be our players in there at the stoppages. Harry O or Young will push up from the HB line when needed, Sidebottom & Blair need to start forward but i feel they can chip in when needed.

Half Forwards: Sidebottom needs to start at each stoppage as a Half Forward flanker as i believe this is where he plays his best footy, he has good vision and can provide a spark when kicking goals (See this year's Richmond game). Cloke needs to play as a roaming CHF as this is where he played his best footy in 2011, he didn't have as many people ganging up on him because he didn't stay in the forward line where it's easy to flood. He's also got a booming kick and seems to kick more goals when he is not directly in front. Dwyer has a good kick on him and will be our main delivery man into the forward 50.... Mmmm juicy!

Forwards: Blair is at his best when he is a small forward, he is a better option than Krak because he is faster and puts on a heap of tackling pressure. The only thing that lets Blairy down is his size but as a crumber you don't really need that. Lynch should be a stay at home forward because even if he doesn't mark the ball he still brings it down for crumbers to gather. Elliott is the best marking forward we have and needs to be in the forward 50 all of the time.

This is how we should theoretically line up after the stoppages when the ball is in play.

--Williams----Brown----------
---------Reid--------Goldsack-
-Shaw------Maxwell-----------
--O'Brien--------Swan---------
---Beams--Ball--Pendlebury--
-----Jolly------Macaffer-------
--------Cloke---------Dwyer--
-Blair--Lynch--------Elliott----

Rotations:
Young -> Any defender or Midfielder
Kennedy -> Any forward
Sidebottom -> Any forward or Midfielder
D.Thomas -> Any forward, midfielder or defender.

I haven't picked some players as well as veterans because.
Jolly > Hudson/Witts
Dwyer > Didak
Blair > Krakouer/Martin
Macaffer > J.Thomas
Williams/Goldsack > Johnson
Maxwell > The club's opinion > Russell/Keeffe

Okay, that team looks like it can beat anyone on any given day provided that we get our gameplan right.

But that's enough about us, what about our opponents?

Let's do a little ladder predictor to judge who our main threats are in September.

This is my IDEAL ladder come round 18.
For this to happen these events would have to take place.

Round 12:
We beat the Bulldogs by 40 points this Sunday.

Round 13:
Bye for us.
Hawthorn def West coast.
Freo def NM.

Round 14:
West Coast beats Essendon over at Patersons by 5 points.
We beat Port Adelaide by 35 points.
Geelong beat Fremantle by 15 points at Skilled Stadium.

Round 15:
We defeat the Blues by 15 points.
West Coast cause an upset against Adelaide over at AAMI by 10 points.
The Cats defeat the Hawks via the Hoodoo 4 points.

Round 16:
We defeat Adelaide at the MCG by 20 points.
Fremantle defeat West coast by 3 points.

Round 17:
We defeat Gold Coast by 40 points
Richmond cause an upset against Fremantle by 5 points.
Adelaide cause an upset against Geelong by 4 points at AAMI stadium.

Round 18:
Hawthorn beat Essendon by 10 points.
We defeat the GWS Giants by 80 points.

ALL the games up to Round 19 are WINNABLE.
We need Freo to either lose the Richmond or West coast game for us to theoretically be a chance this season. They are our MAIN THREAT, even if we win all our games up until round 18 we still need Freo to drop a few and for us to beat either one of the Swans or Hawks.

Now...

Round 19:
Hawthorn defeats Richmond by 18 points.
Carlton causes an upset against Fremantle at the MCG by 5 points.
We beat Essendon by 10 points.

Round 20 and 21 are DANGER for us, if we lose to both Sydney and the Hawks it's game over and we can kiss the top 4 good bye, win one of them and we still need to rely on the Blues beating Fremantle in Round 19. Either this or WCE would have had to win the derby in Round 16. Basically Freo need to lose 3 games between now and the end of the season for us to stay in top 4 contention. Only 2 if we turn into a super team and beat both the Hawks and Swans which seems unlikely.
Fremantle have both GWS and Melbourne in Rd20 and 21 which makes them even more dangerous for us allowing them to get a huge percentage boost and make our percentage basically irrelevant.

Round 20:
We cause an upset against Sydney by 4 points.
Fremantle defeat the GWS Giants by 50 points.

Round 21:
We lose to the Hawks by 12 points.
Fremantle defeat the Demons by 60 points.
Geelong defeat West Coast by 5 points at Patersons.

Round 22:
We defeat the Eagles by 20 points at the G.
Hawthorn defeat North by 25 points.
Sydney defeat Geelong at ANZ by 5 points.

Round 23:
We defeat North Melbourne by 19 points.
Hawks defeat Sydney by 1 point.

So here's the point i'm trying to make.
- IF we lose more than 2 games from now and the end of the season we can basically kiss top 4 good bye. We'd need Freo to fall off the face of the Earth. I'm predicting this is the most likely scenario and we'll finish 5th. I just can't see us beating the Hawks or Swans.
- If we lose 2 games between now and the end of the season we are still a very very good chance of making top 4, we just need Freo to drop 3 games.
- If we lose 1 game between now and the end of the season then i'm betting it will be the Hawks game that we lose. If this is the case then we need Freo to lose about 2-3 and we'll get a top 4 spot.

Here's what the final ladder will look like somewhat.
West Coast COULD squeeze into the 8 if the Blues drop a few, but the final 6 is pretty much settled.
The only order that could change is the top 4.

If we make 4th position then we're likely to play Hawthorn, Geelong or Sydney in the first final. I'd rather either the Swans or the Cats, it's just all about how their season pans out and what games they lose.

This thread took me about 5 hours to make, i hope i got my point across that we're still in it and don't write our season off until we have everyone back. BUT things really need to start going our way.

 

[TradeDraft]

Good Read Mate.

Pies are a Chance for 4th but everything has to go Right

 

[Markfs]

5 hours? I hope you made your bed and rinsed out your soiled undies before you spent all that time on this....

 

[Hagla]

Why feel the need to say you don't hate Buckley? How could any Collingwood supporter hate Buckley?

 

[DWil6]

Bizarre sentiment indeed. We love Bucks. Surely you do too. He may or may not make a great coach but we can't help but love the man.

 

[jerry springer]

Sorry to say, the Top 4 ship sailed weeks ago. We let teams like freo who had their best 3 players out beat us because they are more committed to winning a flag than we are at the present.

Collingwood is just making up the numbers this year

 

[Scodog10]

Sorry to say, the Top 4 ship sailed weeks ago. We let teams like freo who had their best 3 players out beat us because they are more committed to winning a flag than we are at the present.

Collingwood is just making up the numbers this year

This.

Also Tempest % is already irellevent against the Dockers because of their draw against Sydney.

 

[Magpie4Life]

We are only 2 points behind sydney. If sydney lose a few they are in trouble too.

 

[mattys123]

We are only 2 points behind sydney. If sydney lose a few they are in trouble too.

Yep, I think Sydney are the more realistic target than Freo, although I don't think we'll over take Sydney unless we can beat them later in the year, which seems unlikely also.

Unfortunately due to circumstances beyond our control (injuries, form slumps and good starts to the year for opposition teams) we would have to be almost perfect from here on in to finish in the top four.

Good summary/preview of what we have coming though Tempest

 

[KJpie]

Firstly great effort Tempest
All of Goldy, Beams and Thomas are listed 2 weeks, 4 and long term injury not including match fitness required. Hard to see them back soon, Goldy maybe 2 - 4 weeks. As you have stated we require everything to go right to be a serious threat, we could use a good run on the injury front for a change.
P.S. I don't see Russell as a key if and when we get our list back on the park.

 

[Mateyman]

A more realistic target for the top 4 is Sydney IMO. They have a tough run home, an instead of relying on unlikely upsets against Freo, we would really need to just cause an upset against Sydney for their position to be under threat.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

I tried, I really tried

 

[Copeland]

We are only 2 points behind sydney. If sydney lose a few they are in trouble too.

We're 6 points behind Sydney, after both playing 11 games.

 

[SuperSub17]

A more realistic target for the top 4 is Sydney IMO. They have a tough run home, an instead of relying on unlikely upsets against Freo, we would really need to just cause an upset against Sydney for their position to be under threat.

 

[Krueger]

Bizarre sentiment indeed. We love Bucks. Surely you do too. He may or may not make a great coach but we can't help but love the man.

Blind love is a recipe for disaster. Yes he was a great player and a legend of the club, however the fact is as a coach he has been a dismall failure so far as we have been ordinary at best for 1.5 years. Things can quickly change in footy but I cant see us suddenly really turning it on anytime soon and becoming a threat to the likes of Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney especially in finlas.

The replacements Buckley is blooding are nowhere near as good as those they are replacing at this stage, that will take years. By then more of our stars would have retired or jumped ship. If Thomas and Shaw go at the end of the year then we will struggle to make top 8 next year.

Things are just not clicking at the club. Flashes of brilliance here and there is not good enough. Regardless of ladder position at the end of the year we should reevaluate the entire coaching staff because they clearly are not up to it.

 

[Maggie5]

Leaving Buckley out of the equation because it is really not relevant at this stage, my impression of where we are at is our list. After watching Essendon, Hawthorn this weekend, we don't have enough players that can take contested marks, we seem to be too short. Gone are the days when we can just rely on the third man up, we need the tall athletic type, that can not only take a mark but run and kick to position. This may change if we can get Witts or Grundy, Keeffe,Young and Beams match fit sooner than later. We also need Cloke and Lynch kicking more goals than points. What does the opposition teams fear about us? Jolly has been good but if you look at him at centre bounces he more than not looks at the opposition ruckman than at the ball and can not jump at centre bounces.

I would have concerns at us even against GCS, they seem to have a good spread of players that play tall and small.
We are getting there by playing as many first year players as possible and exposing them to what is required but I would have more confidence in taking out a premiership next year than this year.

We still need a couple of talls to make us complete, improved kicking skills and better decision making. A coach can only do so much, he can't go and kick the ball for them, he can't get them to lower their eyes and kick it for them.

Still getting into the eight and playing at least two games will give our younger players enormous confidence and experience to set us up for good go next year, barring injuries of course.

 

[SuperSub17]

Blind love is a recipe for disaster. Yes he was a great player and a legend of the club, however the fact is as a coach he has been a dismall failure so far as we have been ordinary at best for 1.5 years. Things can quickly change in footy but I cant see us suddenly really turning it on anytime soon and becoming a threat to the likes of Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney especially in finlas.

The replacements Buckley is blooding are nowhere near as good as those they are replacing at this stage, that will take years. By then more of our stars would have retired or jumped ship. If Thomas and Shaw go at the end of the year then we will struggle to make top 8 next year.

Things are just not clicking at the club. Flashes of brilliance here and there is not good enough. Regardless of ladder position at the end of the year we should reevaluate the entire coaching staff because they clearly are not up to it.

Why on earth would Shaw leave? He's contracted for next year. You're not buying into the crock of shit that the media are spinning are you?

 

[ipswichpies]

We have been ordinary since TFS,go back and check our results even prior to that as another poster pointed out we were getting results on a 1 or 2 qtr burst and even the prior coach could not alter that although I do not think he tried very much to change that.
Our former coach showed it was all about himself and not the team first mantra.
I have already pointed out some selfish and petulant decisions by some of our players and also the fact some of our players lack a little dedication on the training track.
I accept we are making up the numbers this year and I am not adverse to moving players on if they will not follow the rules which should be the same for all players not just some.
I think our former coach cost us a very good chance as sustained success by his attitude.

Ps Tempest thanks for a great effort you [put into this OP mate I just wish some of our players were as dedicated and I love your optimism but I cannot share it unfortunately.

 

[the mighty T]

Blind love is a recipe for disaster. Yes he was a great player and a legend of the club, however the fact is as a coach he has been a dismall failure so far as we have been ordinary at best for 1.5 years. Things can quickly change in footy but I cant see us suddenly really turning it on anytime soon and becoming a threat to the likes of Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney especially in finlas.

The replacements Buckley is blooding are nowhere near as good as those they are replacing at this stage, that will take years. By then more of our stars would have retired or jumped ship. If Thomas and Shaw go at the end of the year then we will struggle to make top 8 next year.

Things are just not clicking at the club. Flashes of brilliance here and there is not good enough. Regardless of ladder position at the end of the year we should reevaluate the entire coaching staff because they clearly are not up to it.

As opposed to Sydney who turned it around in about 12 months? And im not sure you can label Bucks' tenure as a dismal failure finishing in the top 4 in his first season being beaten by the premiers.. i recon the Tigers and Blues would kill for failure at that level.

Yes, the replacements are not as good.. they cant be. Some of these blokes are 18 with a handful of games experience and as you say, theyll take time. We're in a similar position to Geelong last season and if memory serves they werent exactly setting the world alight then. But whats the solution? Play the old fellas till they decide to call it quits then bottom out like St Kilda or the Dogs? To have that many kids in the side and still be finishing between 4-7 is a credit to the recruiting and development staff. Also, this whole Shaw leaving thing is entirely bs.

But i will agree that something isnt working down there, whether it is due to coaching or players or a combination of both. We discuss the gameplan (or lack therof) at length on the podcast (cheap plug) and i think there are some positive signs with the introduction of new blood.

 

[Wayne Arnold]

Blind love is a recipe for disaster. Yes he was a great player and a legend of the club, however the fact is as a coach he has been a dismall failure so far as we have been ordinary at best for 1.5 years. Things can quickly change in footy but I cant see us suddenly really turning it on anytime soon and becoming a threat to the likes of Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney especially in finlas.

The replacements Buckley is blooding are nowhere near as good as those they are replacing at this stage, that will take years. By then more of our stars would have retired or jumped ship. If Thomas and Shaw go at the end of the year then we will struggle to make top 8 next year.

Things are just not clicking at the club. Flashes of brilliance here and there is not good enough. Regardless of ladder position at the end of the year we should reevaluate the entire coaching staff because they clearly are not up to it.

Given the injuries we've had and the transition to a new game style, I don't think you can say Buckley has been a dismal failure. He hasn't been brilliant but he's been reasonable. Mick ain't coming back and his game plan is obsolete anyhow. So just out of curiosity, when we give Bucks the arse at the end of the season who do you think should be his replacement? There aren't too many experienced coaches waiting in the wings so it will most likely have to come from a young, unproven assistant somewhere. This will always be a risk. I distinctly remember Mick talking up Neeld and Watters whilst he was still our coach. Doens't look so great now.

 

[Scottabe_pendles]

I used to say that i didn't hate the man that is Nathan Buckley and i still don't hate him personally apart from some questionable decisions at the selection table (dropping Didak, persisting with Sinclair & Clarke, not playing Paine, playing Witts when he wasn't up to it etc) and some questionable gameplan issues like the 'kick to Cloke' mentality.

Because of this I was expecting a dire outlook on the Pies this season or in future seasons (as I'm aware of your opinion on Bucks')

To the contrary though, great write up and terrific balanced opinions (although its pretty rose colored glasses if we were to finish 4th)

Thankyou and great effort Tempest

 

[Temploar]

Because of this I was expecting a dire outlook on the Pies this season or in future seasons (as I'm aware of your opinion on Bucks')

To the contrary though, great write up and terrific balanced opinions (although its pretty rose colored glasses if we were to finish 4th)

Thankyou and great effort Tempest

Yeah my honest opinion is that we will finish 5th.

 

[Chief Ten Beers]

I too would love to know if Krueger has any bright ideas who should replace Buckley as coach next year. Eade?

 

[Pera]

Hawthorn were 7-4 last year and really steamed home to finish top.

Top 4 is definitely not out of the equation but a slip up against a Port or Gold Coast and you can almost kiss our chances goodbye.

 

[Krueger]

Given the injuries we've had and the transition to a new game style, I don't think you can say Buckley has been a dismal failure. He hasn't been brilliant but he's been reasonable. Mick ain't coming back and his game plan is obsolete anyhow. So just out of curiosity, when we give Bucks the arse at the end of the season who do you think should be his replacement? There aren't too many experienced coaches waiting in the wings so it will most likely have to come from a young, unproven assistant somewhere. This will always be a risk. I distinctly remember Mick talking up Neeld and Watters whilst he was still our coach. Doens't look so great now.

I said we should review the entire coaching staff at the end of the season because something simply isnt working atm. It could turn out that Bucks is a master coach surrounded by spuds. Without a review we will never know. If we dont make the 8 thats a different story................................................