List Mgmt. The 2024 Draft (Nov 20/21)

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You just know if TT and Lindsay are there we will either a) take someone else or b) trade down.

Better to not hold onto false hope.
We say that, and I get the pessimism, but this is Duane Massey's first season as the chief decision maker re drafting.
There is no precedent. No recent "but we did this!!!" to fall back on.

For all we know we'll draft 5 in and under midfielders and no HBF at all.
 

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Cal Twomey has us linked with Allen, Travaligia, Lindsay as most on here have predicted, but also Matt Whitlock and Jobe Shanahan with pick 12.

Would be pretty happy with any of the first 3, TT, Lindsay, Allen in that order. Would be confused if we went tall with first pick.
Interesting, I really really like Shanahan but is such a low list need.

Preference for 12 would be TT, Allan and if both gone then Lindsay.
 
The more I muck around with mock drafts the more hopeful I am that there will be a mid slider.
Tigers, Melbourne and Saints having multiple picks really helps us out, all 3 of them need a tall forward.

1. Jagga
2. Tauru
3. FOS
4. Draper
5. Lalor
6. Armstrong
7. Reid
8. TT
9. Whitlock
10. Langford
11. Allan
12. Smillie

I think Tigers may surpise and go early on Armstrong as he wont make it to their next pick and is probably the best KPF in the draft. Plus there will still be good mids available at 10/11. They need to get some talls at the start of the rebuild, so I think its almost certain they take at least one tall before our pick. If North do North things and take a mid at 2 then they probably take Tauru at 6 leaving Armstrong to Saints. Either way I expect Tauru and Armstrong to go before our pick.

Saints will be interesting as their only decent KPF is King. Owens is more a mobile 3rd tall who is better when getting up the ground and not sure if Caminiti or Sharman are good enough. Both avg about a goal a game and neither are gaurenteed B22. They also delisted Hayes and Membrey so their tall forward stocks are pretty thin.
It may be a bit early in the draft and they could wait until their 3rd pick at 32 to target a Sims or Gerryn.
With Battle leaving and NWM moving further up the ground in the second half of the year I think TT is a no brainor for them. They also have a bunch of big bodied slowish inside mids in Steele, Windhager, Poo, Clark, Crouch so I think Reid would add some much needed class to that group.

Melbourne drafted Jefferson a couple of drafts ago but he is yet to make his AFL debut. It looks like he had a few decent VFL games last year but I know he was more of a swingman in his draft year. He's not that tall either and is in the Van Rooyen mold of a high flyer. They probably need a big KPF to pair with them and they don't have a 3rd pick until the 80's. After taking a mid at 5 I think there is a really strong chance they take a KPF at 9.

It will leave a group of Smillie/Langford/Allen available for Tigers to take two of and we get the other.
If I was picking I think Langford and Allan woud be a better combo for them giving them some pace and agility with Allan accross hb and a ready made player in Langford. If Saints don't take TT and take a tall instead then I expect Tigers to take him here.

This would leave the Eagles with Smillie. Wouldn't have been my first choice at 3 but we would be absolutely kissed on it if he slides to 12. Otherwise just take Lindsay.
 
The more I muck around with mock drafts the more hopeful I am that there will be a mid slider.
Tigers, Melbourne and Saints having multiple picks really helps us out, all 3 of them need a tall forward.

1. Jagga
2. Tauru
3. FOS
4. Draper
5. Lalor
6. Armstrong
7. Reid
8. TT
9. Whitlock
10. Langford
11. Allan
12. Smillie

I think Tigers may surpise and go early on Armstrong as he wont make it to their next pick and is probably the best KPF in the draft. Plus there will still be good mids available at 10/11. They need to get some talls at the start of the rebuild, so I think its almost certain they take at least one tall before our pick. If North do North things and take a mid at 2 then they probably take Tauru at 6 leaving Armstrong to Saints. Either way I expect Tauru and Armstrong to go before our pick.

Saints will be interesting as their only decent KPF is King. Owens is more a mobile 3rd tall who is better when getting up the ground and not sure if Caminiti or Sharman are good enough. Both avg about a goal a game and neither are gaurenteed B22. They also delisted Hayes and Membrey so their tall forward stocks are pretty thin.
It may be a bit early in the draft and they could wait until their 3rd pick at 32 to target a Sims or Gerryn.
With Battle leaving and NWM moving further up the ground in the second half of the year I think TT is a no brainor for them. They also have a bunch of big bodied slowish inside mids in Steele, Windhager, Poo, Clark, Crouch so I think Reid would add some much needed class to that group.

Melbourne drafted Jefferson a couple of drafts ago but he is yet to make his AFL debut. It looks like he had a few decent VFL games last year but I know he was more of a swingman in his draft year. He's not that tall either and is in the Van Rooyen mold of a high flyer. They probably need a big KPF to pair with them and they don't have a 3rd pick until the 80's. After taking a mid at 5 I think there is a really strong chance they take a KPF at 9.

It will leave a group of Smillie/Langford/Allen available for Tigers to take two of and we get the other.
If I was picking I think Langford and Allan woud be a better combo for them giving them some pace and agility with Allan accross hb and a ready made player in Langford. If Saints don't take TT and take a tall instead then I expect Tigers to take him here.

This would leave the Eagles with Smillie. Wouldn't have been my first choice at 3 but we would be absolutely kissed on it if he slides to 12. Otherwise just take Lindsay.
Smilie doesn’t want to come west.
 
Smilie doesn’t want to come west.
IMO there's a huge difference in taking that risk with a pick 3 vs a pick 12.
I'd rather we had two bites of the Cherry in the draft and not have used it to overpay, obviously, but even with just the one... we need to nail the draft, we need to take the best available in the position we need.



Worth it.
 

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Guy Smillie was pretty good value back in the 70’s ..


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Who gives a rats arse what Smilie wants! If we can’t make a kid fall in love with WA in three years we are in the wrong game!
Reid the tea leaves my friend!!
Yeah this.

We as a club need to cut this "dont draft homesick Vic kids" bullsh*t out. Just pick em and back ourselves in to change their minds.

People do a lot of growing up between their late teens and early 20s. A parochial home crowd, a WA girlfriend and a house in a beachside suburb can sway a lot of opinions in a couple of years.
 
As I previously posted James most admires and styles his game on Tom Barrass:
James Barrat.jpg
 
I am fond of scenario planning. It is not necessarily the reality, but it tests plans and strategies in more extreme circumstances.

I have taken a consensus top 15 (excluding club tied) and have my draft order for who I want as follows:
1730260925459.png

In order to get one of my top 9 mids at pick 12, I need 3 of the following 6 to go before our pick - Tauru, Reid, Hotton, Shanahan, Armstrong or Trainor. I suspect that will occur. That said, with our game style and not knowing the medicals or the personalities, it is a worry. I cannot see Tauru or Reid getting past 10. Who else?


At this point, I want to work with Dons on hiding their top picks. They currently hold the following picks 28, 31, 40, 46, 53, 54, and 65 for 2,586 points. This is more than enough for Kako at 1 and hence need to have a plan and a partner.

Selling out of 28 and 31 is a given as the points are without them is still 1,303 which enables them to meet the bid at 7 (real pick would be 5 as Ashcroft goes before then and possibly Lombard).

Depending when the bid comes, they could also sell out of one of 40 or 46 and it could be a F3 we use (which F3 is noise). I won't complicate this any further so leave it out.

So pre Kako bid, but WC trade with Dons : F2 (Eagles) and F3 (Eagles) for 28 and 31
(nb: It might mean both F2 picks instead of F2 and F3 but that is noise and it is a trade to be considered in its entirety).

After Kako bid, we can wait and see who is still on the board.
(A) If one of the targets I want are there, we sit and pick then selling our pick 26 to the Dons for their F2 as agreed.
(B) If all of the 9 targets are gone, we could sell pick 12 to Dons for Dees F1 plus a sweetener (again what this is is noise in the big scheme of the deals). I am sure the Dons would love some of the tall options that would be available at 12 and would pay handsomely.

I see another level of evenness at the 24 to 40 pick level. The quality looks good and like what I often see as late first and first and early seconds.

So if we like our target at 12, we go 12, 28, 31, and Champion and lost our F2 and F3 but gained back Dons F2.

If we missed all 9, we take on draft night 26, 28, 31 and Champion. Not a great draft but next year we hold 3 F1, 2 x R2, 1 x R3 and a sweetener.


26 28 and 31 would get us a mid like Moraes, Ough, Gross and other options like Oliver, Barrat, Davis, Phillips, Gerreyn, O'Farrell, Mraz, Jacques, etc

Food for thought. Not seeing any of these with A grade potential but we just got Harley and we get to load up on elite talent in 2025 with 3 x F1. It would be better than taking a player that does not want to move interstate or a tall who I would only want later in the draft.
 
I am fond of scenario planning. It is not necessarily the reality, but it tests plans and strategies in more extreme circumstances.

I have taken a consensus top 15 (excluding club tied) and have my draft order for who I want as follows:
View attachment 2154413

In order to get one of my top 9 mids at pick 12, I need 3 of the following 6 to go before our pick - Tauru, Reid, Hotton, Shanahan, Armstrong or Trainor. I suspect that will occur. That said, with our game style and not knowing the medicals or the personalities, it is a worry. I cannot see Tauru or Reid getting past 10. Who else?


At this point, I want to work with Dons on hiding their top picks. They currently hold the following picks 28, 31, 40, 46, 53, 54, and 65 for 2,586 points. This is more than enough for Kako at 1 and hence need to have a plan and a partner.

Selling out of 28 and 31 is a given as the points are without them is still 1,303 which enables them to meet the bid at 7 (real pick would be 5 as Ashcroft goes before then and possibly Lombard).

Depending when the bid comes, they could also sell out of one of 40 or 46 and it could be a F3 we use (which F3 is noise). I won't complicate this any further so leave it out.

So pre Kako bid, but WC trade with Dons : F2 (Eagles) and F3 (Eagles) for 28 and 31
(nb: It might mean both F2 picks instead of F2 and F3 but that is noise and it is a trade to be considered in its entirety).

After Kako bid, we can wait and see who is still on the board.
(A) If one of the targets I want are there, we sit and pick then selling our pick 26 to the Dons for their F2 as agreed.
(B) If all of the 9 targets are gone, we could sell pick 12 to Dons for Dees F1 plus a sweetener (again what this is is noise in the big scheme of the deals). I am sure the Dons would love some of the tall options that would be available at 12 and would pay handsomely.

I see another level of evenness at the 24 to 40 pick level. The quality looks good and like what I often see as late first and first and early seconds.

So if we like our target at 12, we go 12, 28, 31, and Champion and lost our F2 and F3 but gained back Dons F2.

If we missed all 9, we take on draft night 26, 28, 31 and Champion. Not a great draft but next year we hold 3 F1, 2 x R2, 1 x R3 and a sweetener.


26 28 and 31 would get us a mid like Moraes, Ough, Gross and other options like Oliver, Barrat, Davis, Phillips, Gerreyn, O'Farrell, Mraz, Jacques, etc

Food for thought. Not seeing any of these with A grade potential but we just got Harley and we get to load up on elite talent in 2025 with 3 x F1. It would be better than taking a player that does not want to move interstate or a tall who I would only want later in the draft.

In the scenario that who we want at 12 are all gone, I'd prefer to trade back with GWS. 12 for 15 and 37.

Then do the bombers deal.

Hawks F2 our F3 for 28 31 and then reverse after Kako, 26 for ess F2.

15 28 31 37 champion.



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List Mgmt. The 2024 Draft (Nov 20/21)

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