List Mgmt. The 2024 Draft (Nov 20/21)

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This a bad deal for us. Not so much a bad deal, but a dumb trade.

Let's say the Hawks win the flag:

12 + F18 + 26 for 15 + 16 + 21

That's basically:

12 = 3 spots back to 15
18 = 2 spots forward to 16
26 = 5 spots forward to 21

That's a slight loss to move a pick from next year's draft to this year's draft. That's the best case scenario.

I've seen clubs inexplicitly turn on a dime. Top 4 fancies one minute to "everything that could go wrong, did go wrong, bottom 4 flunks" the next.

What if they had a bad year and came 14th?

All of a sudden it's:

F5 + 12 + 26 for 15 + 16 + 21

That's a giant shit sandwich.

Every year, people want to trade futures away because they get emotionally invested in players they can see now (know their name, see them play). Busslinger, Curtin etc. It's a case of FOMO basically. But there's going to be some other player they fall in love with next year.

If we cough up F1, the deal needs to be well in our favour. Otherwise keep it.

That's fair enough, I got a little over stimulated at doing a big trade.
 
If FOS slid to say 8 would people be happy if we gave up the Hawks F1 & F2 to get him?

Essentially it would be a straight swap for Barrass who by what’s he’s said was considering retirement.

In - 12 (Lindsay or TT), FOS, Baker, Owies

Out - 3, Barrass, Darling.

Overall I think I’d be pretty happy seeing as most people wanted FOS at 3. Getting something back with Baker would have really evened it up.

No one’s trading out of this top 10 for a projected late F1 and F2.

It’d take our future first at minimum, Twelve and Hawks future first maybe gets it done too. But there’s also no way the Saints don’t pick whatever gun mid is left before trading the latter of their firsts.
 

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If FOS slid to say 8 would people be happy if we gave up the Hawks F1 & F2 to get him?

Essentially it would be a straight swap for Barrass who by what’s he’s said was considering retirement.

In - 12 (Lindsay or TT), FOS, Baker, Owies

Out - 3, Barrass, Darling.

Overall I think I’d be pretty happy seeing as most people wanted FOS at 3. Getting something back with Baker would have really evened it up.
If he slides that far is it because a club has reached for both TT and Lindsay or have they gone hard at KPF?

On SM-A155F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Prediction on where Marshall gets drafted - pick 20

Why and how?
  • Ashcroft bid is early (2 or 3). Norf are softies so likely to not bid if they stand at 2, but Crows tipped to get pick 2 for pick 4 and future picks, and the Crows have shown they are happy to maintain the draft integrity (Dogs bid on with Ugle-Hagan at 1, just like Tigers should with Ashcroft and start weakening the reigning premiers).
  • Lombard and Kako bids to be by the Saints - a SOS tactic to use time on the clock. 2019 draft he deliberately was buying time bidding on both Henry and Green and then sold that pick to the Suns once they got it up to pick 11 and 62 for 17 and 22. Besides, both Suns and Dons have said they want to buy back in after the prospects are matched so why not have 2 more bidders for the Saints original pick 7 or 8. Saints are supposedly open to a slide back from original 8.
  • Marshall will be called out at the Doggies pick 20 (was 17) at the latest. Sam Power was super peeved at the Lions for squeezing unders for Dunkley and he will seek revenge from the Lions Den while he is Gods List Manager). 17 with 3 club tied options taken before that makes pick 20
 
No one’s trading out of this top 10 for a projected late F1 and F2.

It’d take our future first at minimum, Twelve and Hawks future first maybe gets it done too. But there’s also no way the Saints don’t pick whatever gun mid is left before trading the latter of their firsts.
I reckon 12 and our F2 would go close for the Saints 2nd pick. They won’t trade their first, even more so if Finn is there.

I reckon Langford is the one that gets through to the Saints and they take him. Linked to Lindsay in some reports. Could be 12 and F2 for 8*.

We get Travaglia and they get Langford and Lindsay
 
I reckon 12 and our F2 would go close for the Saints 2nd pick. They won’t trade their first, even more so if Finn is there.

I reckon Langford is the one that gets through to the Saints and they take him. Linked to Lindsay in some reports. Could be 12 and F2 for 8*.

We get Travaglia and they get Langford and Lindsay
Twomey's top 10 a day or so before the actual draft is usually spot on. I assume the #1 club goes, "stuff it, doesn't matter if anyone knows, not one can gazump us", then #2 club goes, "well if you tell me who #1 club is taking, I'll tell you who we'll take. If #1 club is picking X, then we'll take Y, no one can gazump us".... all the way to pick 10. The AFL also may be telling the clubs to play ball (milking some extra coverage), and potentially the clubs a gentlemen's agreement.

BUT, what happens if North are positioning to trade #2 so that can nab Tauru and Armstrong/Shanahan/Trainor? If they're courting some suitors, they potentially don't want to say who they're taking. It's in North's best interest to try to get 2x top KP's with that #2 pick. Surely they're look for the best offer?

As for Saints, I assume they'll say who they want come that top 10. Let's say it's Lindsay, the TT at 9, if we offered 12 and F2, we nab TT at 8, but there's absolutely no guarantee that Lindsay will be there at. I don't think Saints are doing that deal. And I don't think we should do that deal unless one of the top 4 have slid (and then the Saints are probably taking that player).
 
If FOS slid to say 8 would people be happy if we gave up the Hawks F1 & F2 to get him?

Essentially it would be a straight swap for Barrass who by what’s he’s said was considering retirement.

In - 12 (Lindsay or TT), FOS, Baker, Owies

Out - 3, Barrass, Darling.

Overall I think I’d be pretty happy seeing as most people wanted FOS at 3. Getting something back with Baker would have really evened it up.
Hell no. I'm deathriding Hawks and expect their F1 to be pick 4.
 

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List Mgmt. The 2024 Draft (Nov 20/21)

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