Analysis The Clarkson Rebuild Model - A Reason For Optimism

[flinchfree]

10 were in the first quarter though, so it really fell away as the game went on.

You know - Rome, a day, yada yada yada.

 

[GrumpyOldFart]

http://www.theroar.com.au/2018/03/15/hawthorn-alastair-clarkson-contract-afl-2018/

Interesting article on Clarko from Ryan Buckland at The Roar - 'The Alastair Clarkson Endgame'.

"The longest tenured coach in the AFL has two years to run on his contract. His team has ascended the mountain, twice, and tumbled all the way down again. The past 18 months have me wondering: are we in the Alastair Clarkson endgame?"

Enjoy!

 

[Pessimistic]

http://www.theroar.com.au/2018/03/15/hawthorn-alastair-clarkson-contract-afl-2018/

Interesting article on Clarko from Ryan Buckland at The Roar - 'The Alastair Clarkson Endgame'.

"The longest tenured coach in the AFL has two years to run on his contract. His team has ascended the mountain, twice, and tumbled all the way down again. The past 18 months have me wondering: are we in the Alastair Clarkson endgame?"

Enjoy!

Achieved similar to sheedy in half the time. According to writer shreds must have had an endgame of more than a decade

 

[JoeHawk]

http://www.theroar.com.au/2018/03/15/hawthorn-alastair-clarkson-contract-afl-2018/

Interesting article on Clarko from Ryan Buckland at The Roar - 'The Alastair Clarkson Endgame'.

"The longest tenured coach in the AFL has two years to run on his contract. His team has ascended the mountain, twice, and tumbled all the way down again. The past 18 months have me wondering: are we in the Alastair Clarkson endgame?"

Enjoy!

Just found this article and was going to post it here as well. A very good read with many good points raised.

 

[Wundo]

http://www.theroar.com.au/2018/03/15/hawthorn-alastair-clarkson-contract-afl-2018/

Interesting article on Clarko from Ryan Buckland at The Roar - 'The Alastair Clarkson Endgame'.

"The longest tenured coach in the AFL has two years to run on his contract. His team has ascended the mountain, twice, and tumbled all the way down again. The past 18 months have me wondering: are we in the Alastair Clarkson endgame?"

Enjoy!

That's a stellar article. I got me shivers.

 

[StalkingHawk]

Endgame?

And what’s this about tumbling all the way down?

We’ve not exactly picked up wooden spoons.

Most successful of the modern era.

The modern era is the most competitive of any era.

The modern era has more competitors then any other era.


[I have no skin in this game, so don't feel any obligation to take it on board ~ B&GBlood]

 

[Pessimistic]

Only gone backwards three seasons in Clarkos time

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Only gone backwards three seasons in Clarkos time

2009, 2016,2017, hopefully not a trend starting.

 

[OnceKicked50]

Endgame?

And what’s this about tumbling all the way down?

We’ve not exactly picked up wooden spoons.

Most successful of the modern era.

The modern era is the most competitive of any era.

The modern era has more competitors then any other era.


[I have no skin in this game, so don't feel any obligation to take it on board ~ B&GBlood]

Read the article dude.

 

[StalkingHawk]

Read the article dude.

Yup, read it, and again just now.

An overwhelmingly positive review of his record, that still manages to undersell him, and allude to retiring in two years, based on...? Being at the top of his game? Clickbait headline. He posits the romantic notion of Sam/Hodge coming back to replace...

His record is comparable as the greatest in the game, before you compare the number of teams and equalization measures he coached against.

Falling all the way down? We have not, under clarkson fallen ALL the way down. To call our lowly finishes, in 2009, 2016, 2017, as ‘all the way down’ is frankly insulting to the 10 of 18 clubs that don’t play finals in a given year. All the way down. Please


[I have no skin in this game, so don't feel any obligation to take it on board ~ B&GBlood]

 

[Gralin]

It's an absolute nothing article, it does point out some of the greatness of Clarko but glosses over a bit and then decides Parko doing 15 years at Carlton in 2 stints means Clarko will retire

 

[MrPremiership]

2009, 2016,2017, hopefully not a trend starting.

Going backwards from a premiership shouldn't count, its a bit harsh

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Going backwards from a premiership shouldn't count, its a bit harsh

Yeah I agree in regards to 2016 when we still finished 3rd after the Home and away season, but only winning 9 games in 2009 was a very poor return.

 

[Davo23]

Yeah I agree in regards to 2016 when we still finished 3rd after the Home and away season, but only winning 9 games in 2009 was a very poor return.

Where were you in 1962 and 1972?
Couldn’t get to the finals after winning the premiership.

We were trying to sack that dud coach John Kennedy.

 

[HawkNation]

Going backwards from a premiership shouldn't count, its a bit harsh

Yeah finishing top 4 is a success in any season. It’s just down to performing in finals then

 

[Roger Rogerson]

Waste of time reading that.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Where were you in 1962 and 1972?
Couldn’t get to the finals after winning the premiership.

We were trying to sack that dud coach John Kennedy.

I wasn't born is where I was. In those days though 50% of clubs didn't qualify for finals though did they ? So that made it a little bit tougher than it was in 2009.

 

[Brishawk]

R1 2017
B Taylor Duryea, James Frawley, Ben Stratton
HB Grant Birchall, Josh Gibson, Shaun Burgoyne
C Isaac Smith, Tom Mitchell, Liam Shiels
HF Luke Breust, Ryan Schoenmakers, Jack Gunston
F Ty Vickery, Jarryd Roughead, Paul Puopolo
FOL Ben McEvoy, Jaeger O'Meara, Cyril Rioli
I/C James Sicily, Ricky Henderson, Will Langford, Billy Hartung

R23 2017
B Shaun Burgoyne, Kaiden Brand, Blake Hardwick
HB Luke Hodge, James Sicily, Jack Gunston
C Isaac Smith, Tom Mitchell, Billy Hartung
HF Ryan Schoenmakers, Tim O'Brien, Paul Puopolo
F Luke Breust, Jarryd Roughead, Jaeger O'Meara
FOL Ben McEvoy, Will Langford, Liam Shiels
I/C Taylor Duryea, Daniel Howe, Harry Morrison, Conor Glass

JLT 2018

B Blake Hardwick, James Frawley, Ben Stratton
HB Ryan Burton, James Sicily, Jarman Impey
C Isaac Smith, Tom Mitchell, Ricky Henderson
HF Luke Breust, Ryan Schoenmakers, Jack Gunston
F Paul Puopolo, Jarryd Roughead, Shaun Burgoyne
FOL Ben McEvoy, Jaeger O'Meara, Daniel Howe
I/C Taylor Duryea, Harry Morrison, Brendan Whitecross, Conor Glass, Oliver Hanrahan

Likely other best 22 players Rioli, Sheils, Birchall, Langford, Brand

Above is our teams from R1 2017, R23 2017 and the second JLT game 2018. ITs interesting to see the transition in captured by snapshots of the team at various points.Bold means they were new to the team or at least this is the first time they are captured in this analysis. Italics means they were new to the best 22 in 2017. Underlined means no longer at the club.

We began 2017 with three players that are no longer at the club. Only one of them made it to round 23 (Hartung) with Hodge also playing his last game for the club in that match. So we can see that some decisions were made through the course of the year not to go forward with certain players, a couple of which were all time greats for the club.

We started 2017 with four new players, only two of which made it into the R23 side with Henderson being recalled to the JLT squad. Between the R1 and R23 teams we see the introduction of ten players into the best 22 (yes some had debuted previously but in this context I'm treating them as new to demonstrate the changing of the guard). Burton also played significant number of games in between those two games which gives us 11 players tried without even considering those who played during the year but failed to make the R23 side. While it can feel like we are going back to the old firm in the JLT, we actually have 8 of the 11 new players were named in the side that faced Carlton, plus two new players (Impey and Hanrahan) for a total of 10 new players. Now take a look at the side that lost to the Bulldogs in the 2016 Semi-final:

Semi-Final
B Taylor Duryea, James Frawley, Shaun Burgoyne
HB Ben Stratton, Josh Gibson, Grant Birchall
C Isaac Smith, Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge
HF Luke Breust, Jack Gunston, Cyril Rioli
F Paul Puopolo, James Sicily, Ryan Schoenmakers
FOL Ben McEvoy, Jordan Lewis, Liam Shiels
I/C Billy Hartung, Bradley Hill, Brendan Whitecross, Jack Fitzpatrick

Seven no longer at the club. All but three of the rest played JLT with all of Birchall, Riloli and Sheils part of our best 22 when fit. It is a fairly safe bet that Clarko wants to leverage the remaining experience from the 2016 side to develop the 10 new players we see in the JLT. Turning over a third of the best 22 in 12 months is a big deal. We shouldn't be surprised that Clarko isn't looking to play guys like Cousins, Worpel and Lovell early on because he wants the new players already in the best 22 to establish themselves before he bloods more youth. It also shows how much he must rate morrison and Hanrahan (although I suspect Ollie is cover in case Rioli doesn't make it to round 1 as much as anything else).

 

[Thaihawk]

R1 2018
B Taylor Duryea, James Frawley, Ben Stratton
HB Grant Birchall, Josh Gibson, Shaun Burgoyne
C Isaac Smith, Tom Mitchell, Liam Shiels
HF Luke Breust, Ryan Schoenmakers, Jack Gunston
F Ty Vickery, Jarryd Roughead, Paul Puopolo
FOL Ben McEvoy, Jaeger O'Meara, Cyril Rioli
I/C James Sicily, Ricky Henderson, Will Langford, Billy Hartung

R23 2018
B Shaun Burgoyne, Kaiden Brand, Blake Hardwick
HB Luke Hodge, James Sicily, Jack Gunston
C Isaac Smith, Tom Mitchell, Billy Hartung
HF Ryan Schoenmakers, Tim O'Brien, Paul Puopolo
F Luke Breust, Jarryd Roughead, Jaeger O'Meara
FOL Ben McEvoy, Will Langford, Liam Shiels
I/C Taylor Duryea, Daniel Howe, Harry Morrison, Conor Glass

JLT 2018

B Blake Hardwick, James Frawley, Ben Stratton
HB Ryan Burton, James Sicily, Jarman Impey
C Isaac Smith, Tom Mitchell, Ricky Henderson
HF Luke Breust, Ryan Schoenmakers, Jack Gunston
F Paul Puopolo, Jarryd Roughead, Shaun Burgoyne
FOL Ben McEvoy, Jaeger O'Meara, Daniel Howe
I/C Taylor Duryea, Harry Morrison, Brendan Whitecross, Conor Glass, Oliver Hanrahan

Likely other best 22 players Rioli, Sheils, Birchall, Langford, Brand

Above is our teams from R1 2018, R23 2018 and the second JLT game 2018. ITs interesting to see the transition in captured by snapshots of the team at various points.Bold means they were new to the team or at least this is the first time they are captured in this analysis. Italics means they were new to the best 22 in 2017. Underlined means no longer at the club.

We began 2018 with three players that are no longer at the club. Only one of them made it to round 22 (Hartung) with Hodge also playing his last game for the club in that match. So we can see that some decisions were made through the course of the year not to go forward with certain players, a couple of which were all time greats for the club.

We started 2017 with four new players, only two of which made it into the R23 side with Henderson being recalled to the JLT squad. Between the R1 and R23 teams we see the introduction of ten players into the best 22 (yes some had debuted previously but in this context I'm treating them as new to demonstrate the changing of the guard). Burton also played significant number of games in between those two games which gives us 11 players tried without even considering those who played during the year but failed to make the R23 side. While it can feel like we are going back to the old firm in the JLT, we actually have 8 of the 11 new players were named in the side that faced Carlton, plus two new players (Impey and Hanrahan) for a total of 10 new players. Now take a look at the side that lost to the Bulldogs in the 2016 Semi-final:

Semi-Final
B Taylor Duryea, James Frawley, Shaun Burgoyne
HB Ben Stratton, Josh Gibson, Grant Birchall
C Isaac Smith, Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge
HF Luke Breust, Jack Gunston, Cyril Rioli
F Paul Puopolo, James Sicily, Ryan Schoenmakers
FOL Ben McEvoy, Jordan Lewis, Liam Shiels
I/C Billy Hartung, Bradley Hill, Brendan Whitecross, Jack Fitzpatrick

Seven no longer at the club. All but three of the rest played JLT with all of Birchall, Riloli and Sheils part of our best 22 when fit. It is a fairly safe bet that Clarko wants to leverage the remaining experience from the 2016 side to develop the 10 new players we see in the JLT. Turning over a third of the best 22 in 12 months is a big deal. We shouldn't be surprised that Clarko isn't looking to play guys like Cousins, Worpel and Lovell early on because he wants the new players already in the best 22 to establish themselves before he bloods more youth. It also shows how much he must rate morrison and Hanrahan (although I suspect Ollie is cover in case Rioli doesn't make it to round 1 as much as anything else).

I think you mean Rounds 1 & 23, 2017, Bris.

 

[Brishawk]

I think you mean Rounds 1 & 23, 2017, Bris.

Ooops! Was at a 40th last night so not on top of my game it appears haha

 

[Thaihawk]

Ooops! Was at a 40th last night so not on top of my game it appears haha

You're forgiven.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

One of Clarkson's strengths has also been one of his biggest let downs in my mind. Loyalty.

He'll give a struggling warrior week upon week to find their mojo, at the expense of a greener type who doesn't yet have the miles in his legs.

I am hopeful that if one or two warriors look to be a bit wobbly early in 2018 Clarkson can allow himself to go to the cupboard without feeling he has given up on one of his warriors.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

Tonight the rebuild will be seen as a true unveiling.

Last year we went into the season the wrong way and had to redirect dramatically.

Tonight we will see how we are progressing against a club that has been trying to rebuild for 5 or so years and failed each year to show improvement.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Since the nadir of our season last year (the thrashing by Port and capitulation against the Suns at the MCG) - the rebuild now has our record as 12 matches played with a record of 8-1-3 and an overall percentage of 113%. Average losing margin is only 13 points in that time. Where Clarko has us now compared to after the Easter Monday clash last year is nothing short of extraordinary.

 

[CD Xbow]

One of Clarkson's strengths has also been one of his biggest let downs in my mind. Loyalty.

He'll give a struggling warrior week upon week to find their mojo, at the expense of a greener type who doesn't yet have the miles in his legs.

I am hopeful that if one or two warriors look to be a bit wobbly early in 2018 Clarkson can allow himself to go to the cupboard without feeling he has given up on one of his warriors.

I'm surprised at you Abasi. Loyalty is never a let down. It's a core virtue, one that sustains and maintains the our clubs culture.