The Dockers will win their first premiership in 2015

[Big_Birdy]

Assuming bookies get their actuarial calculations right, they win no matter the result. Yes, they lay off bets on favourites, or underdogs, depending on the total amount wagered on each.

This is why when you see a match that is deemed to be dead even, both sides are paying $1.95 or $1.90 rather than the $2 you would expect. Bookies win no matter who wins (assuming they haven't stuffed up their odds).

Ah, true. But they also roll with the money, and will try and save their skin after big plunges. Tom Waterhouse being a good example in last year's GF giving odds of $4 for the Hawks. There is no way he thought they were the genuine odds, but they must have had so much money placed on Sydney that they needed to tempt more money on the Hawks. I doubt even at the $4 that they weren't better off with the Hawks winning (I am making an assumption here, they may have just really thought the Swans would win).

I was more referring to horse racing anyway to be honest, where most bookies will just base their opening odds on the TAB and change them based on money wagered, and clean up when the favourite gets nutted.

Also I was being a smart arse because Freo are the current favourite

 

[The King!]

Haha.. what utter bull. If you extrapolate right now to the end of the season UNDEFEATED, only about 1-2 teams could compete with Fremantle in Perth. That would be Port and Hawks. No one else could touch an undefeated Fremantle on their home turf. Especially if they were 5-6 games behind by seasons end in that hypothetical undefeated run -- Freo would be 3-5 games clear of 2nd.. So daylight in being classified as clearly a class above would be self evident.

I'm sorry but right now it is not so even for Fremantle... They have beaten everyone theyve played. You are talking about position 2 onwards its evened up this year. Which again is further evidence this 2 games clear record is a stark indicator not seen in 60 years.

Must suck having to crows this much about being top of the ladder at round 6 and having no actual success to talk about.

We almost ran over you despite the double digit free kick differential at half time for a start, Freo have done a good job, but think you are a bit arrogant or clueless time will tell which

 

[Docker Alyssa]

Must suck having to crows this much about being top of the ladder at round 6 and having no actual success to talk about.

We almost ran over you despite the double digit free kick differential at half time for a start, Freo have done a good job, but think you are a bit arrogant or clueless time will tell which

Alright then. We've had more real success than going 6-0 but we are dealing with this year...

Still, if you are going to play that game....

How is it to make a grand final as favourite and get utterly embarrassed in front of the entire country? I recall the fond memories of being competitive and many saying we should probably have won against Hawthorn at the height of their powers having pantsed your mob in a prelim just 12 months after a GF win. I also recall fremantle getting huge respect for pantsing Geelong in geelong in a final, and making the trek across the country to see 20,000+ march on the G with pride waving the purple army flag, and getting the most favour of neutrals in quite some years.

 

[pafc88]

Barely beat us without our defence. Like I said in another thread Port are still developing the next couple of years they will be a genuine threat. At the moment they're not especially because they dont have a plan B.

we beat you sending you out in straight sets lol.... beat you easily at home as well..

Recently we have owned you.. we were underdone in round 1 as well.

 

[Banker]

we beat you sending you out in straight sets lol.... beat you easily at home as well..

Recently we have owned you.. we were underdone in round 1 as well.

'under done'

Yeah losing to eagles at home lawl. An eagles side who is missing many of their best as well.

 

[pafc88]

'under done'

Yeah losing to eagles at home lawl. An eagles side who is missing many of their best as well.

Yeah, Wingard and Trengove both missed 9 weeks of preseason And nab cup before their first game back. Lobbe out was a huge blow to us as well..

We missed a couple of blokes that would of helped our clearance rate..against the Eagles, poor loss yeah, its round 6. You lost some shockers last year and somehow managed to place in the top 4.. not concerned.

Looking at your draw the AFL look pretty keen on you guys to actually get some sort of success this year.. its rediculously easy for where you ended up last year..

Bulldogs will beat you in melbourne this week mark it down.

 

[Juggs Magnetic]

Although there is no advantage in finishing top of the ladder by percentage or finishing top clear by x number of games, there advantage that comes with being x number of games clear towards the end of the season is the ability to rest, rotate and manage players. This is especially important for a team that travels every second week and has a number of key players in the twilight of their careers.
So, hopefully, it means the team is better prepared come finals time, better than in previous years.

Of course this is all pointless if freo start losing games, and it's only round 6. Nothings been achieved yet.

 

[Faysals Swans]

Haha.. what utter bull. If you extrapolate right now to the end of the season UNDEFEATED, only about 1-2 teams could compete with Fremantle in Perth. That would be Port and Hawks. No one else could touch an undefeated Fremantle on their home turf. Especially if they were 5-6 games behind by seasons end in that hypothetical undefeated run -- Freo would be 3-5 games clear of 2nd.. So daylight in being classified as clearly a class above would be self evident.

I'm sorry but right now it is not so even for Fremantle... They have beaten everyone theyve played. You are talking about position 2 onwards its evened up this year. Which again is further evidence this 2 games clear record is a stark indicator not seen in 60 years.

Are you kidding me? You got a good team, don't get ahead of yourself. We nearly ran over you after being 7 goals down, away from home and getting arsed by the umps.

 

[Wolfgang West]

Alright then. We've had more real success than going 6-0 but we are dealing with this year...

Still, if you are going to play that game....

How is it to make a grand final as favourite and get utterly embarrassed in front of the entire country? I recall the fond memories of being competitive and many saying we should probably have won against Hawthorn at the height of their powers having pantsed your mob in a prelim just 12 months after a GF win. I also recall fremantle getting huge respect for pantsing Geelong in geelong in a final, and making the trek across the country to see 20,000+ march on the G with pride waving the purple army flag, and getting the most favour of neutrals in quite some years.

Yeah pretty embarrassing to save your worst game of the season for the GF but also were beaten by a Champion team who were too good on the day and there is no shame in that. Swans have played in GF's and won them unlike some who have the shame of having not won one in what is adding up to a pretty soulless history at that club and at the only opportunity to do so self asphyxiated themselves. You are going okay at the moment but If Turf Toe strikes you will not have a pot to piss in.

 

[Cynic]

Although there is no advantage in finishing top of the ladder by percentage or finishing top clear by x number of games, there advantage that comes with being x number of games clear towards the end of the season is the ability to rest, rotate and manage players. This is especially important for a team that travels every second week and has a number of key players in the twilight of their careers.
So, hopefully, it means the team is better prepared come finals time, better than in previous years.

Of course this is all pointless if freo start losing games, and it's only round 6. Nothings been achieved yet.

Good.

Alright then. We've had more real success than going 6-0 but we are dealing with this year...

Still, if you are going to play that game....

How is it to make a grand final as favourite and get utterly embarrassed in front of the entire country? I recall the fond memories of being competitive and many saying we should probably have won against Hawthorn at the height of their powers having pantsed your mob in a prelim just 12 months after a GF win. I also recall fremantle getting huge respect for pantsing Geelong in geelong in a final, and making the trek across the country to see 20,000+ march on the G with pride waving the purple army flag, and getting the most favour of neutrals in quite some years.

Bad.

 

[Kummerspeck]

I recall the fond memories of being competitive and many saying we should probably have won against Hawthorn

I have fond memories of actually winning a Grand Final against Hawthorn.

 

[smeltitdeltit]

I have fond memories of actually winning a Grand Final against Hawthorn.

I for one would like to know who the supposed "many" are that think Freo should have won?

 

[Kummerspeck]

I for one would like to know who the supposed "many" are that think Freo should have won?

I was hoping. That's kind of a thought.

That said, I remember there being a pretty strong line of thought after they crushed Sydney and the Hawks just got over Geelong that Freo had the edge. Though it's now twice that hasn't panned out.

 

[WSmith]

Agree. Have people noticed Fremantle are SO good they are smashing teams then simply playing out the last half in bruise free footy.

Amazing team because of Ross Lyon who derserves a flag. And rypical that the saints had him and we didnt get that flag.

Almost gauranteed. Only hawks and swans can stop them.

 

[Faysals Swans]

Agree. Have people noticed Fremantle are SO good they are smashing teams then simply playing out the last half in bruise free footy.

Amazing team because of Ross Lyon who derserves a flag. And rypical that the saints had him and we didnt get that flag.

Almost gauranteed. Only hawks and swans can stop them.

Apparently their the best team in the last 60 years...

 

[WSmith]

Nah just this year

 

[chinggis77]

Reckon Hawks are our main threat and whether that comes to pass is probably mostly between the ears of the Hawks players and whether they still have the hunger.

Don´t think Port´s midfield is strong enough to compete with Freo, Syd and Hawks. They got lucky in the Hawks win and were thumped in the second half once the Hawks pulled their finger out.

Sydney are a big threat but I just don´t think their midfield is as clean or efficient as Freo and Hawks. Hawks are certainly the best in terms of their ball use (over the last few years) and its the reason they beat us and have won the last few years. Sydney got cleaned up by the Hawks kicking efficiency last year and actually have quite a few butchers in their midfield.

Sydney are 13th in the AFL for disposal efficiency and No 1 in the AFL for clangers. They have lots of good ball winners in the middle but their disposal is often questionable.

Freo have been running at over 80% until the last weekend and lead the AFL in disposal efficiency and are no 17 in the AFL for clangers (i.e. 2nd lowest) - despite playing some tough opponents early on.

Thats been a huge reason in our step up this year. Fyfe, Neale, Barlow etc are logging big increases in efficiency over last year. Look at the grand final vs Hawks. We were butchers and the Hawks so clean. This is the reason why we are also seeing so many teams winning despite having inferior I50 differentials. Efficiency is king these days. Thats also why I don´t see North as a threat. Put pressure on them in finals and their butchers will come to the fore and turn it over.

 

[free at last]

Yeah, Wingard and Trengove both missed 9 weeks of preseason And nab cup before their first game back. Lobbe out was a huge blow to us as well..

We missed a couple of blokes that would of helped our clearance rate..against the Eagles, poor loss yeah, its round 6. You lost some shockers last year and somehow managed to place in the top 4.. not concerned.

Looking at your draw the AFL look pretty keen on you guys to actually get some sort of success this year.. its rediculously easy for where you ended up last year..

Bulldogs will beat you in melbourne this week mark it down.

Ross Lyon coached teams have an incredible winning strike rate playing at Etihad whether it be st kilda/freo.

I think I read some where last year, that if a Ross Lyon coached team has the lead at 3/4 time whilst playing at 'the dome' Ross has never lost.

Freo won't lose to the dogs this weekend....

 

[clivenator26]

Most of our fans in this thread - measured, sensible & understand it's a long season.

Some of our fans - embarrassing themselves.

 

[PerfectFooty]

Dockers where a little lucky to escape from Sydney and Port. But they genuinely look good and i rate them for the premiership. It's about time that the club and Ross both got that elusive flag

 

[Paracleet]

But having a break over the rest of the comp doesn't matter. Geelong in 2008 had one of the biggest leads in terms of matches won in home and away ever.

Interestingly of the last 7 sides to finish the season 2+ games clear at the top only 3 have gone on to win the flag.
2009 - Saints - lost
2008 - Geelong - lost
2007 - Geelong - won
2003 - Port - lost
2000 - Dons - won
1995 - Blues - won
1991 - WCE - lost

Of those all bar the Cats lost to the dominant team of the era.

Looking back at that list the bolded really should have won that year, they were that much better. That's pressure for you.

 

[clogged]

Interestingly of the last 7 sides to finish the season 2+ games clear at the top only 3 have gone on to win the flag.
2009 - Saints - lost
2008 - Geelong - lost
2007 - Geelong - won
2003 - Port - lost
2000 - Dons - won
1995 - Blues - won
1991 - WCE - lost

Of those all bar the Cats lost to the dominant team of the era.

Look back at that list the bolded really should have won that year, they were that much better. That's pressure for you.

Port won in 2004 - 2003 was when they had a massive break and choked in finals. Didn't even make the GF.

Edit: I see you fixed it

 

[Darcy 2 Fyfe]

Hate the sound of this thread.

 

[Major Colvin]

Apologies if this stat has been cited - but - Freo are first team to be two games clear on six wins since Melbourne in 1956 (who won the flag that year)

Its rare you see teams establish a buffer zone one the ladder these days and relinquish it. Last year Port drop out of the top 4, I can't see that happening to Freo.

 

[tacopavlich]

Must suck having to crows this much about being top of the ladder at round 6 and having no actual success to talk about.

We almost ran over you despite the double digit free kick differential at half time for a start, Freo have done a good job, but think you are a bit arrogant or clueless time will tell which

You're giving Swans too much credit that game. Swans only came back because we pulled back, like we have with a lead against every team this year.

And when the Swans actually reached a point they could take the lead back, Freo switched on again and we should of won by 3 or 4 goals more, the score flattered the Swans. You weren't any more of a threat than any team we've played this year.

Swans are certainly a strong team but using that game doesn't help your argument.